Disruptive Technologies, Between Hypes & Opportunities: VoIP P2P & Broadband Wireless

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Brian Lewis
6 years ago
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so Venezia 34/36 20121 Milano (Italy) - Tel: +39 02 76316724 - Fax:

1 Disruptive Technologies, Between Hypes & Opportunities: VoIP P2P & Broadband Wireless Maurizio Dècina, Politecnico di Milano ThinkTel C.so Venezia 34/ Milano (Italy) - Tel: Fax: ThinkTel is a registred brand of Evidenze Srl

2 Topics Convergence & Internet Telephony Peer-to-Peer Telephony Skype Broadband Wireless Technology WiMAX, MobileFi 1

3 Convergence & Internet Telephony Fixed to Mobile Convergence Convergence Communications Convergence Broadcast to Unicast Convergence Internet Phones ASP VoIP, P2P Telephony Carrier Phones NGN VoIP Wireless Phones Wi-Fi VoIP, FMC Source: M. Dècina,

4 Telephony/Internet Transition SS-7 SIGNALLING SIP Next Generation Internet IP v6 3 Billion+ Wired & Wireless Telephone Users circuits SOFT SWITCH MEDIA GATEWAYS packets 2 Billion+ Wired & Wireless Internet Users POTS, ISDN, GSM, Mid Transition 2007 POTS, ISDN, DSL, FFTx, UMTS,.WiFi,.WiMAX.. Source: M. Dècina,

5 Evolution of Telephony Technology Plain Old Telephony Service & ISDN IP Networking Peer-To-Peer Systems Internet Telephony Voice over IP Legacy Networks IP Networks 2005 Voice over IP Peer-To-Peer?? 4

6 New Regulatory Framework & FCC rules Market/Services Established Emerging Infrastructure Legacy New Use NRF Major Debate No ex ante No ex ante border / Fixed & Mobile & Fixed Mobile Integration Source: Ovum & Indepen, 2005 On August 5, 2005, FCC specified that interconnected VOIP providers (i.e. VoIP providers that interconnect with the PSTN) have to be considered Telecommunication Carriers under CALEA and then must facilitate wire taps (legal interception) within 18 months 5

7 From Client-Server VoIP, to Peer-to-Peer VoIP xdsl Telco VoIP Model FTTH Internet HAG xdsl Peer-to-Peer Overlay Network No centralized servers xdsl P2P VoIP Model FTTH SIP Server Voip SP Media GW PSTN Internet FTTH SIP based VoIP Client-Server Need of centralized servers for user registration and call handling PSTN P2P GW xdsl 6

8 Peer-to-Peer Telephony: Skype 55 M users, 170 M dowloads Proprietary SW and protocol, POTS quality, strong privacy Free PC-to-PC calls 1.2 M users of SkypeOut : PC-to-Phone SkypeIn & Voic September 2005 September 12, 2005 ebay Inc. has agreed to acquire Skype Technologies for approximately $2.6 billion, plus potential performance-based consideration 7

9 Skype - Networking Architecture Login Server PSTN/PLMN PSTN GW Super Nodes - They are established after acceptance test by Skype -They have public IP address -They offer storage, processing & bandwidth -Each Serves 100s Peer Nodes -They route encrypted calls -They execute NAT of private IP addresses -They exploit p2p protocol Peer Peer Peer Peer Peer Super Node Super Node Peer Super Node Super Node Peer Peer Peer Peer Peer 8

10 Skype Worldwide On-line Users (1 week plot) 3500 week-end slope down % Thousands of Most of the Skype users are connected from their working site On-line users Source: ICT Consulting, E-Sept monday tuesday wednesday thursday friday saturday sunday Time of Day (GMT+1)

11 Skype Worldwide Maps South America 7% Australia 2% Peer Map by World Region (Estimated by ICT Consulting super-node on 22nd of August, 2005) North America 14% Middle East 3% SouthAmerica 10% Africa 4% Asia 0% Australia 3% Europe 52% NorthAmerica 9% Far East 22% MiddleEast 3% User Map by World Region FarEast 24% Europe 47% (reported by referring official data received from Niklas Zennstrom) 10

12 Skype Worldwide On-line Users - 3Q On-line users Thousands of Week # About 17.2M estimated active users at end of Semptember Source: ICT Consulting, E-Sept July August September +22.5% 11

13 Skype Served Traffic Minutes - 3Q 2005 Milions Served Traffic per week % Source: ICT Consulting, E-Sept July August September Week # 12

14 Skype Growth Limits To offer acceptable voice QoS, Skype exploits today two types of charge-free Resources Super Nodes Resources Residual free Bandwidth on Internet Backbones Skype has serious limitations to grow by keeping the above free assets. Today (September 2005) Skype manages about 1-2 million of simultaneous telephone calls in the Internet. Each Super Node routes about one hundred encrypted calls. If the number of calls grows, Skype will be forced to Route and pay for QoS (especially, delay) guaranteed Internet routes (i.e., IP/MPLS routes) Give very stringent performance requirement to establish Super Nodes, and/or provide for powerful Skype owned Super Nodes (i.e., network Routers/Gateways) Another important Issue about Skype is Legal Interception Capability 13

VoIP Future - Who s Going to Risk? VoIP will wipe out old telephony Voice revenues will shrink dramatically Telco s Questions are: how long will it take? Verizon who s going to risk more?

15 VoIP Future - Who s Going to Risk? VoIP will wipe out old telephony Voice revenues will shrink dramatically Telco s Questions are: how long will it take? Verizon who s going to risk more? Qwest BT which strategy for Telco s? FT BellSouth H3G VodafoneTelecomItalia Telefonica DT Comcast Vonage TimeWarner Skype Yahoo! ESPN CNN AOL Amazon Google BBC Sky MSN ebay Media Co s Internet Co s Source: The Economist,

16 Telco s Moving to New Wave Business Media Telecom Internet From October 3, until December 31, 2005, calls to 30 popular international destinations with BT Communicator, such as the United States, Australia, Spain and France will cost just 0.5p a minute. A 60 minute call to a US landline, which would cost 72p with Skype, would cost only 30p with BT. Telco's Need to accelerate network transition to IP technology: the NGN platform Need to accelerate creation of Fixed to Mobile Platform & Market Convergence Need to enhance capacity to supply networked IT and Value Added Services (a lá BT s New Wave Business ) Need to prepare for new business models, partnerships and acquisitions, to leverage value of their access & interconnection infrastructures, in the value chain for delivery of networked services to the end user 15

17 BT in search of New Wave Revenues: Q1 05/06 bn Q1 2005/6 - Group turnover + 5% New wave Traditional + 48% -3% * Q1 2005/6 - New wave strong organic growth m + 118m + 128m + 12m + 33m + 31%* Other Mobility 1,227 m m 2004/5 2005/6 936 m Networked IT services Broadband 8.2bn Q1 2004/5 + 19% + 69% + 28% + 45% Q1 2005/6 Source: BT, July 28, 2005 Networked IT services Sales Order Value of contracts 16

18 Topics Convergence & Internet Telephony Peer-to-Peer Telephony Skype Broadband Wireless Technology WiMAX, MobileFi 17

19 Evolving Wireless Communications CABLE REPLACEMENT HOME, OFFICE PUBLIC ACCESS Range CITY, SUBURBS COUNTRY, REGION WIDE PAN WLAN WMAN WAN ZigBee GSM GPRS EDGE UltraWideBand Bluetooth Wi-Fi a/g/n b WiMAX MobileFi a/e UMTS HSDPA/ HSUPA LIMITED FULL Mobility 1 kbit/s 10 kbit/s 100 kbit/s 1 Mbit/s 10 Mbit/s 100 Mbit/s 1 Gbit/s Bit Rate Source: : M. Dècina, D

20 Indoor/Outdoor Coverage: WiFi plus WiMAX WLL or WiMAX Personal Hot-Spot WiMAX WiFi Source: Siemens Communications, 2005 The Internet Residential Hot-Spots Nomadic Hot-Spots Corporate Hot-Spots Public Hot-Spots 19

21 WiMAX Spectrum Allocation Unlicensed Bands WiMAX available Other bands US WCS MMDS ,5 GHz GHz A GHz C GHz B ISM (WiFi): Source: WiMAX Forum,

22 Indoor/Outdoor Coverage: NLOS at 3.5GHz 21

WiMAX Technology 802.16 2004 802.16e Standard availability 2H 2004 By end 2005 Spectrum LOS / NLOS Max Data rate (PHY) <11 GHz, 10-66 GHz (licensed and unl.

5 GHz Typical throughput 8-20 Mbps in 3,5-7 MHz 2-10 Mbps (estimated) Modulation OFDM 256 tones, adaptive S-OFDMA up to 2048 tones, adaptive Mobility Channels Max Cell radius QoS Fixed or nomadic

23 WiMAX Technology e Standard availability 2H 2004 By end 2005 Spectrum LOS / NLOS Max Data rate (PHY) <11 GHz, GHz (licensed and unl.) LOS/NLOS Up to 75 Mbit/s in 20 MHz channels < 6 GHz (licensed & unl.) NLOS Up to 15 Mbit/s in 5 MHz channels enhanced a) GHz Typical throughput 8-20 Mbps in 3,5-7 MHz 2-10 Mbps (estimated) Modulation OFDM 256 tones, adaptive S-OFDMA up to 2048 tones, adaptive Mobility Channels Max Cell radius QoS Fixed or nomadic Scalable from 1.5 to 20 MHz 1-2Km (IND), 4-10Km (NLOS), 50Km (LOS) Yes, 4 classes Mobile (Handover up to 120 Km/h) Scalable from 1.5 to 14 MHz 2-5 km Yes, 4 classes b) standard Fonte: WiMAX Forum Using an external antenna and a 7MHz FDD channel at 3.5 GHz, an 11 Mbit/s average throughput per sector is estimated. In NLOS environment the throughput decreases to 8 Mbit/s. 22

24 Intel s x ST Chipset Roadmap CPE Notebook Handheld ES PRQ Q3 04 Q1 05 Rosedale BB/MAC 256OFDM (SOFDMA in Q1 05) 3 rd Party 2.5, 3.5 & 5.8GHz Radio s ES PRQ Q3 05 Q1 06 Ofer-M BB/MAC SOFDMA 3rd Ofer-R Party Multiband Radio [2.5,3.5,5.8] s Indoor/outdoor ST Fixed/Nomadic Appl. External Device or maybe PCMCIA Card Nomadic, No HandOver: Portable Integrated withincentrino Portable / Mobile Eshel WiMAX+WiFi BB/MAC SOFDMA Lower Power Eshel-R Multiband Source: Intel,

MobileFi Technology Flash-OFDM (Fast Low latency Access with Seamless Handoff- OFDM): custom technology developed by Flarion (Flarion acquisition by Qualcomm in progress) pushed to be standardised

25 MobileFi Technology Flash-OFDM (Fast Low latency Access with Seamless Handoff- OFDM): custom technology developed by Flarion (Flarion acquisition by Qualcomm in progress) pushed to be standardised within Working Group IEEE (MobileFi) OFDM modulation Frequency from 400 MHz to 3,5 GHz Up to more than 250km/h (300?) Interesting deployments in the 450MHz band Good propagation: better coverage 1.25 MHz channels, max downlink throughput: 3.2Mbit/s (typical 1-2Mbit/s) Analog cellular network licenses Licensed band MHz 24

26 IMS Architecture: WiFi/WiMAX Integration Packet Switched Domain IP Multimedia Subsystem Applications & Services WLAN/ WMAN MRF HSS UMTS SGSN SGSN IP IP GGSN GGSN CSCF MGCF MGW Internet PSTN MGW GSM/GPRS MSC HLR Circuit Switched Domain IMS = IP Multimedia Subsystem 25

27 Fixed to Mobile Convergence Models based on Dual Mode Terminals (Wi-Fi-WiMAX/2G-3G) Single Mobile Number Single SIP ID Nomadic Site based UMA FIXED MOBILE UNC Single Mobile Number SCCAN PBX MOBILE Mobility/LCR Manager FIXED Wireless centric FMC agent MOBILE FIXED Double Numbers (Fixed/Mobile) MOBILE PBX Mobility/LCR Manager FIXED Wireline centric UMA (Unlicensed Mobile Access) Source: ICT Consulting, 2004 SCCAN (Seamless Converged Communication Across Networks) IMS Breakout SIP Provider Longboard, BridgePort, Outsmart, Norwood,... 26

28 Summary Peer-to-Peer Telephony is a Threat to Telco's Business? Cannot scale without Quality of Service provisioning by Telco's/ISPs It Accelerates the Voice Revenues Decline It urges Telco's to accelerate provision of Full IP Platform & Convergent Services (Fixed & Mobile) Broadband Wireless Technology (WiFi, WiMAX & MobileFi), is a Threat to Telco's Business? Can be used to create competing Full Mobility IP Wireless Networks Telco's are urged to accelerate integration of Broadband Wireless Access in their Fixed & Mobile 2G/3G Infrastructures Incorporation of heterogeneous Wireless Access Networks offers new attractive Convergent Service opportunities to Telco's 27

Fixed Mobile Convergence

Fixed Mobile Convergence Daniel McHugh Solutions Manager dmchugh2@alcatel-lucent.com www.alcatel-lucent.com Fixed Mobile Convergence Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) provides common and seamless services