The Electricity System in A History of the Future

Transcription

1 The Electricity System in 2030 A History of the Future Lorenzo Kristov, Ph.D. Principal, Market & Infrastructure Policy GO15 TSO/ Workshop San Francisco April 13, 2016

2 Clean energy policies, local resilience, technologies and business models converged by 2030 in a new paradigm. Change was driven from the bottom up Distributed Energy Resources (DER) arrived from the fringe to take center stage Integrated decentralized electricity system a system of resilient community-level microgrids, each customized for local conditions and objectives, linked via transmission-level wholesale market Distribution utilities discovered a viable new business model as wires companies, partnered with cities to customize local systems Cities manage municipal services water, wastewater, solid waste, local transport, internet as an integrated whole system The 21 st century value of the grid a transactions network for enduse services, prosumers, smart communities and DER The central focus is energy services, not just kwh commodity Page 2

3 Integrated decentralized structure looks like 2016 electrically key differences are resource types and how operations, planning and procurement are organized. Decentralized network of -operated systems at each T-D substation Local energy production & selfoptimization to meet local needs Each capable of islanding in case of system disturbance Planning driven by local conditions, local goals, and convergences of city services DER provide services to the and to end-use customers and communities Integrated via interfaces to transmission grid & wholesale market Wholesale energy trading & access to distant renewable generation DER provide operational services to the ISO/TSO (energy, ancillary services) Individual T-D interface substations DER ISO/TSO: transmission system & wholesale market - balancing authority area End-use customers & diverse DER Micro -grids Page 3

4 design options revolve around relevance of the T-D interface as operational, market & regulatory boundary. Least Relevance of T-D boundary Most Model A ISO optimizes the whole integrated system models distribution system, sees DER at actual locations Model B ISO optimizes the whole integrated system but sees DER as if located at the P-node or T-D substation Model C ISO optimizes only the transmission system sees multiple aggregated or virtual resources at each P-node Model D ISO optimizes only the transmission system sees a single aggregated or virtual resource at each P-node Total TSO/ISO Minimal Market Total Current path in 2016 Preferred model by 2030 Page 4

5 Transaction schematics show problematic tier bypassing in models A-B-C, and desirable scalability in D Models A-B-C ISO/BA Model D ISO/BA Trans Owner Gen Trans Owner Gen Dist Operator Dist Operator DER DER Customer sites Microgrids Customer sites Microgrids 5

6 Grid architecture perspective favors Total within a layered hierarchy of optimizing sub-systems. BAA Regional Interconnection ISO Balancing Authority Area BAA Each tier only needs to see interchange with next tier above & below, not the details inside other tiers D D ISO focuses on regional integration while coordinates DER operation Microgrid D = Local Distribution Area or Community Microgrid Smart building Micro-grid Smart building Smart building Layered control structure reduces complexity, allows scalability, and increases resilience & security Fractal structure mimics natural ecosystems. Page 6

7 Regionalism & localization are complementary paths to a clean, sustainable energy future. 1. Whole-system grid architecture supports local flexibility 2. Excess supply => zero/negative spot prices => increased viability of storage, hydrogen, desalination, workplace EV charging 3. Increased DER production for local consumption flattens net TSO system load growth 4. Regional integration increases transmission capacity utilization, reduces congestion & enables access to remote renewables with minimal transmission investment 5. Increased local storage & power electronics flatten distributionlevel & system load profiles, reduce volatility for both & TSO 6. DER provide grid services & peer-to-peer transactions in local distribution-level markets design to support local needs & goals 7. Overall system security is enhanced via decentralized reliability Page 7

8 Thank you. Lorenzo Kristov Refs: The Future History of Tomorrow s Energy Network, Public Utilities Fortnightly, May Two Visions of a Transactive Electric System, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, May-June 2016 Page 8