The Future of Networks -
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1 The Future of Networks - Summarising Trends Andy Valdar Professor Telecommunications Strategy
2 Whither Telcoplodicus?
3 Convergences Commercial models Network Operator Consolidation Competition Customer expectations Technologies NGN
4 Mergers & Acquisitions SBC Verizon ATT Bell South Cingular MCI ATT Telefonica O2 ebay Skype NTL Telewest NTL Virgin Mobile Alcatel Lucent Alcatel Lucent Telewest
5 Convergences
6 News Item: Convergence is for real I mean, this stuff is becoming real. It was talked about for ages, but now the pieces are coming together Bill Gates, 7 th January 2004
7 But, what is convergence...?
8 In the past there have been several interesting attempts at convergence..
9 All devices being digital and supported by IP:
10 LANs WANs Enterprise networks Data Comms Broadband Content distribution networks (CDN) Voice-data integration Digital broadcasting Mobile Data comms IP driven Comms ICT Internet Intranets Extranets Systems Integration E-business Hosting Portals Processing Storage APIs Web-based services PDAs Rules-based system Open source s/w Search engines IT IP driven
11 Broadcast TV Information Communications Fixed-Mobile Convergence FMC IT Voice-Data Convergence ICT ICE Converged World
12 Customers Service Ops. Control Signalling Switching Transmission The Network Service Stack
13 Customers Service Service Network Inter-working Ops. Ops. Control Control Signalling Signalling Switching Switching Transmission Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Inter-working of Two Networks
14 Customers Service Service Network Inter-working Ops. Ops. Control Control Signalling Signalling Switching Switching Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Integration At The Transmission Level
15 Customers Service Service Network Inter-working Ops. Ops. Control Control Signalling Signalling Switching Transmission Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Integration At The Switching Level
16 Customers Service Service Network Inter-working Ops. Ops. Control Control Signalling Switching Switching Transmission Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Integration At The Signalling Level
17 Customers Service Service Network Inter-working Ops. Control Signalling Switching Transmission Ops. Signalling Switching Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Integration At The Control Level
18 Customers Service Service Ops. Network Inter-working Control Control Signalling Signalling Switching Switching Transmission Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Integration At The Operations Management Level
19 Customers Service Network Inter-working Ops. Ops. Control Control Signalling Signalling Switching Switching Transmission Transmission Network 1 Network 2 Converged Service From two Networks
20 Drivers For Integration Running fewer Platforms: Operational savings Service management savings Network economies of scale running larger integrated platforms Network resource sharing Technical Advantage: The ability to provide new converged service features as a result of integration of the control or signalling layers
21 Drivers For Service Convergence New service features and new revenues Service differentiation from competitors Exploitation of users integrated terminals
22 Many Platforms
23 Network Integration
24 Terminal Integration
25 The Ultimate Integration.or vision?
26 1. Convergence is here to stay Broadband Terminals Competition 2. Offer converged services With or without NGN Bundled tariffs VOIP Triple Play Quad Play 3. Need to move into new (converged) markets ICT FMC Etc.
27 2. The move to next-generation networks is vital Large-scale integration Closure of legacy platforms Use of IP infrastructure Integrated control IMS NGNs are often referred to as the Converged Platforms
28 NGN
29 An NGN is characterised by the following fundamental aspects: Packet-based transfer; Separation of control functions among bearer capabilities, call/session, and application/service; Decoupling of service provision from network, and provision of open interfaces; Support for a wide range of services, applications and mechanisms based on service building blocks (including real-time /streaming/non-real time services and multi-media); Broadband capabilities with end-to-end QoS and transparency; (ITU-T)
30 An NGN is characterised by the following fundamental aspects (2): Interworking with legacy networks via open interfaces; Generalised mobility; Unrestricted access by users to different service providers; A variety of identification schemes which can be resolved to IP addresses for the purposes of routing in IP networks; Unified service characteristics for the same service as perceived by the user; (ITU-T)
31 An NGN is characterised by the following fundamental aspects (3): Converged services between fixed and mobile Independence of service-related functions from underlying transport technologies; Compliant with all regulatory requirements, for example concerning emergency communications and security/privacy. (ITU-T)
32 Next-Generation Network Concept Service creation Service providers Mobile access & aggregation IMS NB access & aggregation IP 3G Internet Gateway INAP BB access & aggregation PSTN IP phone
33 Logical Architecture For NGN Voice Real-time data Latency Tolerant data Leased Lines Voice Codec Circuit emulation IP ATM, Ethernet MPLS ADSL, ISDN SDH SDH DWDM Cu, Optical Fibre, Wireless Access Optical fibre, Wireless Core
34 NGN Physical Architecture Intelligence Node Other Other operators operators PSTN PSTN SCP MGC Aggregator Node IMS PSTN Replacement Residential & SME Business ISPBX TA NTE NTE DSL modem IP Phone LAN Private Circuits NTE NTE NTE NTE ISDN POTS & DSL Ethernet Circuit emulation MG E t h e r n e t S D H VoIPATM over Optical fibre S D H E t h e r n e t Trunk Media Gateway Edge IP Router Media server EdgeNode SDH/SONET over DWDM & optical fibre SSNo7 TDM/PCM over SDH on optical fibre IP IP MPLS MPLS Core Core
35 Technology Product Life Cycles Manual Network Era Analogue Automatic Network Era Digital Network Era Data Networking Era Extent of deployment Manual switching 2-motion selector switching Semielectronic switching SPC digital switching Packetbased switching years
36 Operational aspects How to make it work as a service?
37 Maybe, today s technology does not need so much manual intervention
38 .but we still have to avoid the classic network management problems!
39 Network Management Challenges Large Scale Packet networks Network resilience: Multi-QOS for multi-service networks Service Level Agreements Security Recoverability Dimensioning & traffic management Multi-Party Operation
40 Commercial models i.e., who does what to whom and who is paying for it?
41 Projected Migration of Voice Minutes in the UK Minutes x Bn G Cable PSTN 3G 2G VOIP 0 Cable
42 Pence/MOU Comparative Fixed And Mobile Tariffs Fixed GSM 40% reduction in mobility premium Fixed 1.0 3G PSTN VOIP Source: Adventis 2005
43 Different Players in The LLU Broadband Market Service provisioning, Billing, Customer care Local Loop DSLAM Backhaul Service Control IP Core Front-end Front-end ISP ISP ISP Telco Today Front-end Front-end ISP ISP ISP Telco ISP Future Telco ISP Front-end Front-end ISP ISP ISP Telco-1 Full Managed LLU Telco-2 ISP Front-end Front-end ISP ISP ISP Telco-1 Managed LLU Provider Telco-2 Telco-3 ISP
44 Customer Expectations What services will they want and pay for?
45 Wholesale Services Local loop unbundling (LLU) Wholesale line rental (WLR) Call pre-select (CPS) Leased line Billing Call centres Support to virtualual operators
46 Retail Voice & data Services, of course...
47 But, what about the new things.like the young gaming
48
49 .or even the not-so-young!
50 The Gaming Life Cycle
51 The major trends
52 1. Customers are increasingly using digital applications Consumer Digital cameras Digital video VOIP Downloading music (MP3) Cheap/free broadband access to Internet Internet for shopping, tickets, entertainment, etc. Business Demand for ICT services Offshoring Driving down operational costs E-business
53 2. Dramatic change to revenue mix & lower margins Collapse in value of connectivity, driven by: Capacity glut Change in technology VOIP Increasing competition Drive for broadband Penetration increase Increase in bandwidths Reducing value of bandwidth Socially acceptable Increase in bundling Triple play Fixed-mobile convergence Shift to non-traditional sources of revenue ICT
54 Messages from Networks2006 NGN NGN introduces 4-layer architecture: application; control; core; access Either partial or full replacement of PSTN and other legacy platforms Major fibre deployment in the Access Network Drivers for NGN: new revenues Increase ARPU Cost reduction IMS is the choice converged services Act of faith
55 Messages from Networks2006 Commercial Need to develop new business models Creation of non-traffic business by operators Operational How do you migrate: Data cleanse & build Migration/conversion strategies Business case Resilient network design Operational processes & systems
56 Messages from Networks2006 Access Network Rural vs Urban Coping with the underdeveloped infrastructure in rural areas: Wireless, especially Wimax State government support Generating demand Wide range of technologies Copper endures, but with progressive optical fibre deployment Bandwidth/throughput will continue to be a limitation (backhaul)
57 Convergences Commercial models Network Operator Consolidation Competition Customer expectations Technologies NGN
58 Messages So, network integration is vital for cost reduction.. but introduction of converged services is necessary for new revenues...and maybe survival!
59 .Can it continue to adapt?
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