2012 NAND Flash Outlook

Transcription

1 2012 NAND Flash Outlook -IN NAND WE TRUST- Sean Yang June 7 th, 2012

2 Agenda Overview for 2012 NAND Flash Market NAND Flash Supply Side Status NAND Flash Demand Side Status Smartphone, Tablet and Ultrabook June 7 th,2012 Page 2

3 Macro NAND Market Healthy and Balanced 180% 150% 120% 151% 143% 133% 90% 60% -30% 118% 69% After 2008 financial crisis, NAND Flash makers learned from the undisciplined supply and implement output strategy based on real market demand for profitability and operational stability. 80% 77% 75% 68% 73% 71% 30% 54% 51% 8% 15% 16% 22% 12% -18% 0% E 2013F Sales growth (YoY) Bit supply growth (YoY) Bit demand growth (YoY) 71% 70% NAND Flash market will be balanced and healthy in macro perspective. June 7 th,2012 Page 3

4 Warming Status from Mid-3Q, Helps to Drive the Market Unit: M 16Gb Equiv. 6, % 5, % 4, % 3,000 2, % 1, % 0 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F Supply ( 16Gb M. Equiv.) Demand ( 16Gb M. Equiv.) Sufficiency Ratio -4.0% NAND Flash market is highly correlated with the seasonality pattern of system products now, 2H 12 market will be triggered by new smartphone, tablet and ultrabook. 1H12 over-supply is a mix dynamics of softened demand from retail market as well as the impact from macro-economy slowdown. June 7 th,2012 Page 4

5 Memory Paradigm is Shifting to NAND Flash-1 Unit: USD$ Million 40, NAND Market Growth >14% 30,000 20,000 10, E 2013F DRAM market revnue NAND Flash market revenue NAND Flash market revenue will likely surpass DRAM market revenue in 2012 given the strong demand from embedded storage of smartphone, tablet and Solid-State Drive. Aggressive content growth also helps to boost the revenue growth. June 7 th,2012 Page 5

6 Memory Paradigm is Shifting to NAND Flash-2 Unit: USD$ Million 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, E DRAM CAPEX NAND Flash CAPEX Source: Company, DRAMeXchange estimation, Jun., 2012 Stable profitability and strong demand growth enables total memory solution providers dedicating more resource on NAND Flash. USD$ Million 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, E Samsung-DRAM Samsung-NAND USD$ Million 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, E USD$ Million 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 SK Hynix-DRAM SK Hynix-NAND E Micron-DRAM Micron-NAND June 7 th,2012 Page 6

7 Stable Operating Margin on NAND Flash 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 Samsung-NAND SK Hynix-NAND Micron-NAND Toshiba-NAND -80% -100% 50% 40% 40% 25% 0% 20% 0% 20% 0% -20% -20% -40% Samsung-NAND Samsung-DRAM SK Hynix-NAND SK Hynix-DRAM Micron-NAND Micron-DRAM Despite of continuous margin compression in recent quarters, NAND Flash makers still enjoy at least high single-digit operating margin through 3Q 09. June 7 th,2012 Page 7

8 Strong Bit Growth& Stable Market Share Diagram Unit:16Gb M. Equiv. 30, CAGR~81% 20,000 10, E 2013F Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk SK Hynix IM Flash Others Samsung and Toshiba/SanDisk steadily account 36%-37% share respectively, followed by 15% from IM Flash and nearly 10% from SK-Hynix, NAND Flash supply shows disciplined dynamics. June 7 th,2012 Page 8

9 Cautious Wafer Expansion Plans for The Future Unit: K pcs 6,000 <5% y-y <10% y-y +20% y-y +15% y-y 4,000 2,000 - Samsung Toshiba/SanDisk IM Flash SK Hynix E 2013F SK Hynix fab M12 will commence mass production from 4Q12 IM Flash continues to cultivate the capacity from Singapore fab. Samsung new fab in China and Toshiba s phase 2 schedule of Fab 5 will commence mass production from 4Q13. June 7 th,2012 Page 9

10 Density is Driven by Large Capacity Applications 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 128Gb 64Gb 32Gb 16Gb 8Gb <8Gb 0% Strong demand for large density storage helps to drive density evolution quicker than before after nm-class node product will be more cost-efficient for high density chip, results in migration enhancement to 64Gb and 128Gb after 2Q12. June 7 th,2012 Page 10

11 20nm-class Migration is Accelerated 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F 90nm 6X & 7X nm 5Xnm 4Xnm 3Xnm 2xnm 20nm-Class 16nm-Class Yield rate for 20nm-class migration takes time to tune up, NAND Flash makers aim for further improvement in 3Q12. 20nm-class emmc and SSD will boost the production portion from 2H12. June 7 th,2012 Page 11

12 Output Breakdown by Architecture 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q13F 3Q13F 4Q13F SLC MLC TLC TLC has more than 80% penetration rate in memory card and USB drive market for better cost structure concern. MLC still remains dominating status in embedded products. June 7 th,2012 Page 12

13 NAND Flash Opportunity in System Products Unit:16Gb M. Equiv. 27,000 Consumer Base Computing Base 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9, Demand Growth CAGR~73% Tablet SSD Smartphone 6,000 3, E 2013F Handset SSD Tablet PC PMP UFD DSC Others Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun, 2012 Catalysts come from rising popularity of smartphone, tablet and SSD. NAND Flash demand turns to computing device from consumer products after 4Q 10. June 7 th,2012 Page 13

14 Embedded Products are the Engine for Growth 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% E 2013F NAND Flash in System Memory Cards&UFD SSD and emmc unit consumption is 8-16 times more than UFD and memory card. Content and shipment growth from smartphone and ultrabook have re-shape the demand outlook. Cloud storage service and embedded design is the structural impact on UFD and memory card. June 7 th,2012 Page 14

15 NAND Flash Storage Fits All Mobile Devices Unit: Million 1,500 1, E 2013F 2014F 2015F Source: DRAMeXchange, Jun, 2012 June 7 th,2012 Page 15

16 Robust Smartphone Unit Growth Unit: Million 2,500 60% 2012 smartphone volume: 660 million. 2,000 1,500 emmc platform design 50% 40% emmc is widely used in high-end smartphone in 2011 and penetrate into mid-end product lines from ,000 30% 20% emmc design is raising from the high requirement of multi-media and high performance device % E 2013F 2014F 2015F 0% Smartphone Feature Phone Smartphone (%) June 7 th,2012 Page 16

17 2012 Smartphone Middle & Entry Models Surge Unit: Million 1,500 Premium Mid-End Low-End CAGR: 140% Price 1,000 CAGR: 95% BOM Cost CAGR: 12% E 2013F 2014F 2015F Gross Margin 35-40% 25-30% 15-20% Premium smartphone is reaching saturated in developed countries. Mid/Low-End smartphone contains good momentum in China, Asia-Pacific and rest emerging areas. Smartphone US$ Smartphone>US$500 Smartphone US$ Mid/Low-End segment margin is still attractive to new smartphone makers. June 7 th,2012 Page 17

18 emmc is Penetrating into Wide Smartphone Portfolios Unit: Million % emmc in High-Price models % SEC Galaxy S2 Sony Xperia S % HTC One X Nokia Lumia emmc in Middle/Entry models 40.0% 50.0 Nokia Lumia 610 SEC Galaxy Ace 2-1Q12 2Q12E3Q12F4Q12F1Q13F2Q13F3Q13F4Q13F 30.0% Smartphone Shipment emmc Adoption Rate (%) ZTE Mimosa X Blackberry Bold 9900 June 7 th,2012 Page 18

19 Media Tablet Market Continues to Grow Unit: ' , % 120,000 80, % 40, E 2013F 2014F 2015F 0.0% Media Tablet Volume ios Android Windows Others Windows8 is the key catalyst for media tablet growth from More than 97% media tablet models are designed in emmc storage. June 7 th,2012 Page 19

20 emmc Density is Categorized for Consumer Usage Unit: Million Q12 2Q12E 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F 2Q3F 3Q13F 4Q13F Other device w/ emmc E-reader w/ emmc Tablet w/ emmc Smartphone w/ emmc Smartphone (GB) Tablet (GB) Overall 2012 emmc market size is closed to 400mn units, smartphone consumes most. Each device has identical content per box given different usage and cost structure. June 7 th,2012 Page 20

21 Ultrabook is the Key to SSD Ultrabook <13.3 Ultrabook > mm 21mm Display Memory Storage Battery Enclosure June 7 th,2012 Page 21

22 SSD Implementation in Ultrabook Premium Ultrabook msata SSD Ultra-Slim SSD OR Premium performance Extreme slim thickness Value Ultrabook Ultra-Slim HDD SSD Cache Attractive storage capacity Better Price/Cost structure June 7 th,2012 Page 22

23 Diversified Ultrabook is Foreseeable for PC-OEMs Macbook Air Premium Valued $- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 BOM Cost OEM Margin Retail Margin Diversified ultrabook product mix will be dressed by major PC-OEMs given the incentive for distinguish from Apple Macbook Air. More than 80% of ultrabook models in 2012 will be designed in valued lineups. June 7 th,2012 Page 23

24 Strong Momentum of ultrabook from 2H 12 Unit: K 400, % Unit: K 160,000 Ultrabook ASP $1, ,000 $ , % 80,000 $600 40,000 $ , % E 2013F 2014F 2015F $- Ultrabook Ultrabook ASP 100, % 0.0% E 2013F 2014F 2015F Notebook Ultrabook Ultrabook (%) Ultrabook is around 10% of total notebook in Featured with affordable components and cost-down on key parts, ultrabook ASP continue to drop to boost penetration rate. June 7 th,2012 Page 24

25 SSD- Slim Form Factor Drives Growth Unit: Million % % 15% % % E 2013F 0% SSD shipment SSD Consumption (%) SSD is moving from retail market with regular form factor to msata with ultra-thin laptop. SSD accounts ~15% of NAND Flash consumption in 2012 and will be up to above 20% in June 7 th,2012 Page 25

26 Reiterate Positive on Long-Term NAND Flash Market Unit: 1GB Million equiv. 60,000 50, Consumption CAGR~73% $4.0 $3.0 40,000 30,000 $2.0 20,000 $1.0 10, E 2013F $0.0 Demand (1GB M equiv.) NAND Flash ASP (1GB equiv.) Catalysts for NAND Flash market growth include diversified and innovative applications as well as technology evolution. NAND Flash is viewed as the superior storage for devices. June 7 th,2012 Page 26

27 Thank You DRAM team Ken Kuo Avril Wu Wilson Miao Lavender Shih NAND Flash team Wayne Chen Sean Yang Alan Chen Esther Lo June 7 th,2012 Page 27