Assessment Report & Update

Transcription

1 2011 Pilot Probabilistic Assessment Report & Update July 26-27, 2012 LOLE Best Practices Working Group John Moura, NERC Staff Coordinator; Kevan Jefferies, RAS-ProbA Team Lead

2 Background - Probabilistic Assessment PC Approved Generation & Transmission Reliability Planning Models Task Force (GTRPMTF) Methodology and Metrics Report in September 2010 OBJECTIVE To provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic based work products thatcould be used to supplement the NERC s long term reliability assessments. RAS has assumed the role to implement the report s recommendation through use of the Implementation Plan detailed in the report. 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 Near term in 2011 High Level Implementation Plan Pilot Probabilistic Assessment (optional participation) Complete Long term 2012 and later PC Approved (June 2012) All Assessment Areas will conduct a probability analysis and report the metric results to the RAS. Results will be due to the RAS six months after the LTRA is finalized. The initial LTRA referenced for this assessment is expected to be completed in October/November The RAS will include the metric results in a separate summary report issued for review at the March PC meetings (dependent on the amount of time the RAS determines it needs to perform the analysis). 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Pilot Summary Assessment Areas performed the field trial using the 2010 LTRA Base Case Three metrics were produced: Expected dunserved de Energy (EUE) Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) Normalized EUE (normalized relative to Net Energy to Load) Pilot participants include: FRCC, the NPCC Assessment Areas,the SERCAssessment Areas,Manitoba, MISO, PJM, and SPP. 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 IMPORTANT CAVEATS! Consistent metrics produced using several different models dl Cannot compare metrics from one Assessment Area to another Assessment Area Enhancements to methods and assumptions in the individual Assessment Areas maychange in the future as participants become more familiar with the tools and process implementation. 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 Pilot Results Forecast Planning Reserve Margins 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 Pilot Results Forecast Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 Pilot Results Normalized Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 Pilot Results Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 Recommendations Commencement: The periodic probabilistic assessments should ldbegin in 2012, using the 2012 LTRA reference case. Participation: Full participation is recommended in 2012 for all Assessment Areas. Assessment Frequency: The RAS should perform a probabilistic assessment biennially 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 Planning Committee Action at June 2012 Meeting RAS is requested approval on the probabilistic assessment pilot Format of assessment results Recommendations Upon PC Approval, the following actions will occur: Completestakeholder participation full coverage of all assessment areas Next report will use 2012 LTRA reference case o Commence in September o Completed by Spring 2013 o Report will study 2014 and RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 2011 Pilot Modeling Highlights - 1 Models Convolution (Tiger) Monte Carlo (MARS, Gridview) Load Typical Year 2002/4 Composite; 2005; year history Study Areas MRA Size Manitoba & Maritimes to PJM & MISO Model up to 5 MRAs in one study 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 2011 Pilot Modeling Highlights - 2 Internal Area Modeling 2 studies hd had multiple l MRAs MRAs with 1 to 21 nodes internally External Area Modeling 5 model details of outside areas 2 have >50 external nodes Demand Response Dispatchable resource; Load modifier;eop Multiple types of modeling in one study 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 2011 Pilot Modeling Highlights - 3 Wind & Solar Load modifier df (peak; hourly) Resource HdroElectric Hydro Electric Energy limited dispatch; peak shaved; as thermal Didn t ask about energy uncertainty Thermal Mostly 2 state Planned outages usually scheduled by model 14 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

15 Probabilistic Assessment 2012 Approved by PC June 2012 PC will review continuing after ProbA 2012 Biennial (from even year LRTA data) Use 2012 LTRA data Study years 2014 & 2016 Coordinated through RAS Separate reporting from LTRA 15 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

16 Prob. Assess Schedule July 2012 ProbA working group conference call Aug 2012 Formal request issued Sept/Oct 2012 Review reporting required Dec 2012/Jan 2013 MRA Reports Feb 2013 RAS Review Mar 2013 Draft Report to PC June 2013 PC Approval 16 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

17 Prob. Assess Structure Organization Similar to Pilot ProbAGroup RAS Coordination Individual id Area reporting reviewed ed Sept/Oct 2012 Data Table Summary Matrix MRA Reports Template Final report will change to reflect trends rather than absolute results 17 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY