Digital Transforma/on
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1 Digital Transforma/on Digital Technologies Digital Compe//on Digital Business Models Digital Organiza/ons Digital Work Dr. Holger Schmidt FOCUS Magazine Chief Correspondent Digital Economy Netzoekonom.de 16th February 2016, WirtschaLspoli/scher Club Deutschland, Berlin
2 The Digital Evolu/on User All Companies! Internet of Things Digital Products and Services Web Online- Retail 2000 Social Media 2005 Mobile/ Apps Time Source: MIT Center for Digital Business
3 Digital Technologies
4 Accelerated, reinforcing Technical Progress Mobile (5G- Networks 2020: >100 MB/s) SoLware (Machine Learning, AI, Big Data ) Sensors (10 Years: Price ê 100X) Robo/cs + 3D Printer
5 Opera/onal Stock of Industrial Robots In China US / Canada Japan South Korea Germany Italy France Spain UK Source: Interna/onal Federa/on of Robo/cs
6 Digital Compe//on
7 The Tech Approach to disrupt Incumbents Tech Approach SoLware- Innova/on + Hardware- Innova/on Customer Benefits Convenience Save Money Save Time Beker Products: Convenient Save Money Save Time Beker Design
8 Redefining Industry Boundaries Product + Service Ecosystem Increasing Compe//on (New entry points for Compe/tors) Lower Price Compe//on more Compe//on on Features and Services
9 The Train that never arrives too late Velaro (Barcelona - Madrid) 2,5 h for 625 Kilometer 15 Min Delay: Passengers get back full /cket price Combina/on of Sensors and Big Data Analy/cs (Teradata) allows replacement of Parts before they break (Predic/ve Maintenance) Result: No passenger got his money back
10 Disrup/on: Sales of Large Luxury Cars USA 2015 Tesla S Mercedes S- Klasse BMW 7 BMW 6 Audi A7 Mercedes CLS Audi A8 Porsche Panamera
11 Disrup/on: Growth of Large Luxury Cars US Change 2015/2014 in Percent Tesla S 43,76 BMW 7-4,6 Audi A7 BMW 6-5,1-5,8 Mercedes CLS - 11,9 Mercedes S- Klasse Porsche Panamera Audi A8-13,2-13,2-15,5 Coolness New Features / Maintenance via OTA Update Automated Produc/on / Giga Factory Price doesn t maker
12 Media Business
13 Important Sources of News Preferred News Source (EU/USA/AUS/JP) Quelle: Reuters Digital News Report 2015 Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι 26 Februar 2016
14 Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι 26 Februar 2016 Reading the news in a Newspaper 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 CAGR - 3,9-3,4-7,5-5,6 Akademiker 14 bis 64 Jahre Junge Akademiker (20-39) 20 bis 29 Jahre 10,0-6,7 14 bis 19 Jahre 0, Quelle: Allensbacher Computer- und Technikanalyse (ACTA) 2015
15 Bedeutung der Medien für Meinungsbildung der Jährigen Anteil in Prozent 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 20,6 20,1 7,5 21,3 30,2 21,4 Radio Internet Zeitung 30% 20% 41,7 37,2 Fernsehen 10% 0% Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von Ins/tut für Demoskopie Allensbach / ACTA 2015
16 Bedeutung der Medien für Meinungsbildung der 20-39jährigen Akademiker Anteil in Prozent 100% 90% 20,1 18,8 80% 70% 60% 14,6 33,6 Radio Internet 50% 31,2 40% 16,5 Zeitung 30% 20% 10% 33,9 31,2 Fernsehen 0% Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von Ins/tut für Demoskopie Allensbach / ACTA 2015
17 Online- Nachrichtenquellen Gesamtbevölkerung Angaben in Prozent Tageszeitung (Website/App) 44,2 Portale (Website/App) 41,7 ZeitschriL (Website/App) Facebook 38,8 38,4 Y Wikipedia Fernsehsender (Website/App) 26,8 26,2 27,9 Radiosender (Website/App) 19,5 Anderes soziales Netzwerk Andere Internetangebote Andere Blogs 12,3 15,3 14,4 Twiker 6,3 Andere Videoportale 4 Quelle: TNS Infratest 2015
18 Online- Nachrichtenquellen Jährige Angaben in Prozent Facebook 61,8 Y 49,3 ZeitschriL (Website/App) Tageszeitung (Website/App) 47 46,4 Fernsehsender (Website/App) Portale (Website/App) Wikipedia 29,5 29,1 32,3 Radiosender (Website/App) Anderes soziales Netzwerk Andere Blogs Andere Internetangebote 19,8 17,7 15,6 13 Twiker Andere Videoportale 4,2 3,4 Quelle: TNS Infratest 2015
19 Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι 26 Februar 2016 Auflagenentwicklung (Abo/EV) der F.A.Z. 350,0 300,0 70,6 250,0 0,9 200,0 66,3 62,6 60,0 58,8 56,7 1,3 1,6 1,9 2,1 2,4 54,9 3,1 51,5 5,5 48,9 13,2 45,1 20,2 40,0 25,0 Einzelverkauf Abo e- Paper 150,0 Abo- Print 100,0 243,9 234,6 231,0 232,0 228,8 225,6 221,6 212,0 199,7 182,7 166,4 50,0 0,0 Q3/2005 Q3/2006 Q3/2007 Q3/2008 Q3/2009 Q3/2010 Q3/2011 Q3/2012 Q3/2013 Q3/2014 Q3/2015 Quelle: IVW
20 Umsatzquellen deutscher Zeitungen In Milliarden Euro Vertriebserlöse Digital Vertriebserlöse Print Online- Werbung Print- Werbung Quelle: PWC, ZAW, BDZV
21 Online- Werbung in Deutschland Umsatz der Anbieter in Milliarden Euro Andere Unternehmen Suchmaschinen FachzeitschriLen PublikumszeitschriLen Zeitungen Quelle: PWC, BDZV
22 Digitaliza/on of Industries Short Fuse, Big Bang Telco, Media Business Impact Long Fuse, Big Bang Retail Banks Insurance Educa/on Manufactoring Health Real Estate Energy Transporta/on Time Chemistry, Mining, Oil, Gas Short Fuse, Quiet Bang Long Fuse, Quiet Bang Source: Deloike Dr. Holger Schmidt Ι Netzoekonom.de Ι 26 Februar 2016
23 Digital Business Models
24 The Path of Digitaliza/on: Germany starts at the wrong end Industry 4.0 Customer needs (Current needs/ Future needs) Digitaliza/on of Products / Services Digitaliza/on of Produc/on no no no Business Model?
25 Plazorm Economy Customer Company/Provider 10 of the 20 most valuable listed Companies in the World are Plazorms
26 Plazorm Companies by Type Bubble Size represents Market Cap December 1, 2015 Source: Global Plazorm Survey. The Center for Global Enterprise
27 Das Amazon- Modell Source: FT
28 Tech- Giants at the Stock Exchange The 10 most valuable listed Companies of the World ($B) Nippon Telegraph 136 ExxonMobil 401 Apple 657 GE 107 GE 357 Google 516 Exxon 104 Johnson & J. 288 MicrosoL 431 Coca- Cola 90 MicrosoL 274 ExxonMobil 338 Toyota 87 BP 250 Berkshire 332 Philip Morris 71 Time Warner 241 Amazon 316 Roche 70 Ci/group 235 GE 306 Industrial Bank Japan 69 Royal Dutch Shell 230 Facebook 298 Merck 69 Pfizer 184 Wells Fargo 283 Royal Dutch 68 Wal- Mart 182 Johnson & J. 283 Tech- Share Of Top 10 O% 1O% 58% Source: Yahoo Finance
29 Dax 30 vs Big 4 Market Cap (December , $B) Facebook Bayer SAP Daimler Siemens Deutsche Telekom Allianz VW BASF BMW Con/nental Henkel Fresenius Deutsche Post Deutsche Bank Munich Re Linde Fresenuis Medical Care Beiersdorf Adidas Eon Infineon Deutsche Börse HeidelbergCement Vonovia Commerzbank Merck ThyssenKrupp RWE LuLhansa K+S Amazon Google Apple Source: Bloomberg
30 Digital Organiza/ons
31
32
33 Digital Transforma/on works only Top- Down CEO
34 Digital Work
35 The End of Rou/ne Tasks Ar/ficial Intelligence (Machine Learning) will replace many Rou/ne Jobs, first /me in the offices. (Accountants, Controller, IT- Admins, Analysts, Lawyers) 45 Percents of all Tasks can be fully automated Large increase of Labour Produc/vity Germany: 5 Million Jobs can be fully automated
36 Impact of Industry 4.0 on Jobs in Germany Changes in Manufacturing in 2025 in Percent Jobs IT and Science Jobs Lawyers, Management Jobs Media, Humani/es, Arts Construc/on, Plas/c Merchants Teacher, Professor Retail Merchants Cleaning Disposal Security Guard Services Social Professions Health Professionals Office / Commercial Jobs Traffic / Logis/cs Gastronomy Raw Materials Technical Jobs Assistants Repair Metal Construc/on, Electrical Machine and Plant Control 0,31-0,01-0,17-0,69-0,78-1,00-2,46 0,51-2,98-4,77 1,06 1,10 0,91 0,94-12,79 1,89 1,85 1,51 3,00 3, Jobs - 14,00-12,00-10,00-8,00-6,00-4,00-2,00 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 Source: IAB Forschungsbericht 8 / 2015
37 You go to Bed as an Industry Company and you wake up as a So8ware Company Jeffrey Immelt / GE
38 Ques/ons? Dr. Holger Schmidt FOCUS Magazin Chief Correspondent Digital Economy Blog: Netzoekonom.de Kontakt: Linkedin: Linkedin.com/in/hoschmidt Facebook: Facebook.com/HolgerSchmidt
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