Modeling Risk of Adjacent Land Development for the Virginia Multimodal Transportation System

Transcription

1 Modeling Risk of Adjacent Land Development for the Virginia Multimodal Transportation System Presented to: Transportation Planning Research Advisory Committee Virginia Transportation Research Council October 27, 2010 Presented by: James H. Lambert and Shital Thekdi University of Virginia

2 Project Team University of Virginia Jim Lambert Shital Thekdi Qian Zhou Juan Aguilar Matt Giorgis Michael Gude Preut Thanarat Caitlin Walcoff Virginia Department of Transportation Chad Tucker Robin Grier Marsha Fiol Rick Tambellini Ross Hudnall Ben Mannell Brad Shelton Virginia Transportation Research Council John Miller Amy O Leary Mike Perfater 1

3 Other Contributors University of Virginia Matthew Schroeder, Alex Linthicum, Sandeep Pillutla E.K. Kim, L.R. Kincaid, S.M. Rash, G.W. Schmidt Virginia Department of Transportation Kim Pryor Spence Katherine Graham Matthew Merrill John Giometti Paul Grasewicz Mary Lynn Tischer Robert Hofrichter Others Rick Carr Kimberley Fogle Talmage Reeves Karen Henderson Jeff Walker Mary Davis 2

4 Agenda Motivation Goal Technical Approach Access Management Conclusions/Future Work 3

5 Land Development Adjacent to Corridors National Land Cover Database Satellite Imagery:

6 Motivation Multimodal Strategic Plan Performance metrics on land use/transportation Preservation of right of way Locating multimodal facilities : Coordination of state and local transportation planning : Comprehensive plan to be prepared and adopted; scope and purpose : Comprehensive plan to include urban development areas 5

7 Motivation (cont.) Methods must be identified to address the risks of land development on ten-year and nearer horizons in order to avoid surprise, regret, and belated action Escalating land values affects right of way acquisition Desire to avoid unnecessary congestion and costly retrofits Officials need to prioritize and address the transportation corridors that are at risk of unforeseen development DOT, HUD, and EPA partnership for sustainable communities (2009) 6

8 Need For This Effort to Avoid Risk and Regret Large scale transportation network Ten-year and nearer horizons in order to avoid surprise, regret, and belated action Need for repeatable and data-driven methodology Portfolio of alternatives evaluated using multiple performance criteria Escalating land values affects right of way acquisition Desire to avoid unnecessary congestion and costly retrofits Situation involves volatile and uncertain future conditions Need for prioritization and risk-based methodology 7

9 Need For This Effort to Avoid Risk and Regret (cont.) Costs Time of planners Financial resources for planning Right of way Construction/Operati onal Access management Opportunities Projected economics of scale Reduction of road volume 8

10 Agenda Motivation Goal Technical Approach Access Management Conclusions/Future Work 9

11 Goal Develop repeatable data-driven methods to identify and prioritize sections of multimodal transportation infrastructure that are vulnerable to land development, and address the implications for risk assessment 10

12 Goal (cont.) 11

13 Milestones September 2009 September 17, 2009 Project Initiation Meeting Charlottesville, VA September Project Initiation Meeting Charlottesville, VA October 2009 October 6, 2009 Initial VDOT SPS data transfer October 9, Virginia Section Institute of Transportation Engineers Wintergreen, VA October 22, Preliminary Data Meeting Richmond, VA October 29, TPRAC Update Charlottesville, VA November 2009 November 10, 2009 Developed proposed methodology November 13, UVA Risk Center presentation of proposed methodology Charlottesville, VA November 13, 2009 SCAN proposal submitted to FHWA/AASHTO November 30, Identified Geodata.gov containing GIS maps from various government agencies 12

14 Milestones (cont.) December 2009 December 15, 2009 Transportation Research Forum abstract submitted December 10, 2009 Identified NASA Landsat satellite imagery December 31, 2010 Transportation Research Forum conference paper prepared January 2010 January 4, 2010 US Census data source identified through Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing System. January 11, 2010 Identified land use satellite imagery through the National Land Cover Database January 13, 2010 Meeting with UVA Scholars Lab Charlottesville, VA January 20, 2010 Initial charts/maps created for analysis January 30, 2010 Data requirements and availability list completed February 2010 February 3, 2010 Identified Virginia population projections from the Virginia Workforce Connection using data received from the US Census estimates. February 5, 2010 Preliminary home value and real estate trending data extracted from Citydata.com 13

15 Milestones (cont.) February 2010 (cont.) February 9, 2010 UVA Scholars Lab GIS data transfer February 22, 2010 VDOT SPS data transfer February 28, 2010 Updated charts/maps created and analyzed with recently obtained data February 28, Developed proposed risk-based decision analysis framework March 2010 March 1, Identified and processed relevant elevation data from United States Geological Survey for use in proposed methodology calculations March 5, Performed initial ranking analyses of given data in GIS (using home values, population/projections, slopes, landmarks, etc.) March 11, Final revisions completed for Transportation Research Forum conference paper March 12, Transportation Research Forum presentation Arlington, VA: Thekdi, Shital, James H. Lambert, Marsha Fiol, Robin Grier, Chad Tucker. Risk- Based Forecasts of Land Development for Protection of Mobility Options of People and Goods. 51st Annual Transportation Research Forum. Arlington, VA. March 12,

16 Milestones (cont.) April 2010 April 2, 2010 Identified Bureau of Economic Analysis Bearfacts containing information on personal income trending by region April 8, 2010 Printed posters with maps showing rankings and preliminary data analysis April 22, 2010 Steering committee meeting update May 2010 May 14, Methodology update using steering committee meeting findings May 25, TPRAC May 30, Refined methodology to use Census blocks, greater use of NLCD land change data between 1999 and 2001 June 2010 June 18, Identified new (early 2010 startup) land cover trends project by the US Geological Survey utilizing NLCD data June 28, Refined methodology utilizing reliability analysis to predict time to development 15

17 Milestones (cont.) July 2010 July 30, Presentation prepared for the Society for Risk Analysis: Modeling Risk and Avoiding Regret of Adjacent Land Development for Transportation and other Infrastructure Systems. Student Merit Competition - Society for Risk June 31, 2010 Further refined methodology utilizing markov modeling August 2010 August 20, 2010 Refined methodology and updated charts/maps August 27, 2010 Steering Committee Update, Richmond, VA August 26, 2010 Capstone team formed September 2010 September 20, 2010 Potential access point counting processes analyzed September 30, 2010 Addition of fuzzy logic to theoretical approach September 30, 2010 Draft of related paper to Risk Analysis: An International Journal completed 16

18 Milestones (cont.) October 2010 October 21, 2010 Four additional multiple perspective charts/maps October 25, 2010 Steering Committee Update, Charlottesville, VA Plans for future effort October Summer 2011 October 28, Multimodal Strategic Planning Meeting, Richmond, VA December 8, 2010 Society for Risk Analysis 2010 Annual Meeting January 5, 2011 The Institute for Business and Finance Research 2011 Winter Global Conference on Business and Finance April 10, 2011 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research April 29, IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS'10) Refine methodology Test methodology Make trainings and presentations Migrate results to a website to enable use by localities and regions Develop recommendations for further implementation 17

19 Project Website 18

20 Project Website (cont.) 19

21 Schedule Tasks Duration (months) Start month End month 1. Development of predictive model 2. Implementation in selected corridors of the SMS 8 11/09 06/ /10 10/10 3. Integration of additional data 4 05/10 08/10 4. Collection of data layers supporting agency programs 14 11/09 12/10 5. Materials and reports 16 11/09 02/11 6. Recommendations developed with VDOT and regions 4 01/11 04/11 7. Technology transfer 18 11/09 04/11 20

22 Relevant Literature Importance of proactive protection Avoiding costly retrofits Access management Preserving arterial capacity Minimizing disruption of nearby entities Example of related efforts SLEUTH Combines satellite imagery with NASA data in US Geological Survey Model Simulate future impact of future land use policy scenarios 21

23 Relevant Literature (cont.) Relevant factors in description of land development Distance from roads (county roads, highways, streets) Distance from bodies of water Distance from city centers Agriculture density Distance to recreation Population Population Projections Housing units/population ratio Soil type Slope Sources: Pijanowki 2003, Thekkudan

24 Relevant Literature (cont.) Linthicum and Lambert Risk management for infrastructure corridors vulnerable to adjacent land development. Journal of Risk Research Thekdi and Lambert Risk-Based Forecasts of Land Development for Protection of Mobility Options of People and Goods. Transportation Research Forum

25 Agenda Motivation Goal Technical Approach Access Management Conclusions/Future Work 24

26 Key Challenges Time domain Decisions for effective corridor protection policy How sensitive are decisions to the forecasts and related assumptions Regional classification based on similar characteristics Corridor sections based on Census blocks 197,000+ blocks in Virginia 43,000+ blocks adjacent to SMS 25

27 Key Challenges (cont.) Not all relevant factors for forecasts are available on a statewide level Parcel level land values not available in consistent statewide format Currently the data is maintained at the county level SMS joins 95 counties and 39 independent cities SMS neighbors five states (MD, WV, KY, TN, NC) Other relevant characteristics available at varying scales Population projections at county level Land values at zip code level Population at census block level 26

28 Diverse Sources of Qualitative and Quantitative Data Diverse sources of quantitative and qualitative databases 27

29 Diverse Sources of Qualitative and Quantitative Data (cont.) Virginia Employment Commission population forecasts Landsat/NLCD satellite imagery elevation and land use Census TIGER population and housing City-data land value HUD Housing Affordability SOCD Building Permits Virginia Workforce Connection population and employment projections Small Business Administration HUBZones Conserved, protected, and federal lands City-data home age Property crime Distance from intersections Employment centers Others 28

30 Single Factor: Population Projections Primary data source: Virginia Workforce Connection 29

31 Singe Factor: Home Value Primary data source: City-data 30

32 Single Factor: Jobs Housing Balance Primary data source: Virginia Employment Commission 31

33 Single Factor: Land Contour 32

34 Aggregation of Factors 33

35 Economic Perspective 34

36 Demographic Perspective 35

37 Land-Use Perspective 36

38 Suitability-for-Development Perspective 37

39 Overview of Other Modeling Layers All Factors Time for Protection Influence Diagrams Fault Trees Scenario Analysis Markov Models Decision Trees Most Relevant Factors Max Regret Combinations Likelihood of Development Time to Development 38

40 Modeling Layer 1: What are the factors that most contribute to risk of adjacent land development Access Points Public Transportation Infrastructure Population Forecast Population Road Volume Reduction Right of Way Costs Legal Fees Commercial Land Values Undervalued Land Efficiency Potential Opportunities from Protection Time and $ Operational Employment Centers Time to Development Financial Costs And Opportunities Costs for Protection Access Mgmt Decision Uncertainty Objective 39

41 Modeling Layer 2: How can selected factors combine to result in maximum regret Unprotected Land Development Development Occurs Corridor not Protected Economic Environmental Political Insufficient Funds Unplanned Development Employment Land Values Climate/ Land Transp. Access Taxes Policy Employment Centers Pop. Growth Water Soil Roads Public Transport Capacity Flow Cost Accessib ility 40

42 Modeling Layer 3: What are the regulatory, economic, demographic, and other scenarios that contribute most to risk of land development Factors Emergent Conditions Socio-demographic Environmental Others Population forecast Present Time Future Time Employment forecast Decrease - - Land value current - Increase - As planned Conservation easements Decrease

43 Likelihoods of Adjacent Land Development High Medium Low 2000 miles identified as low 400 miles identified as high 42

44 Modeling Layer 4: What is the time horizon to adjacent land development 43

45 Modeling Layer 5: What actions can be effective to mitigate risk of adjacent land development 44

46 Prioritization of Corridors Vulnerable to Adjacent Land Development 0-5 Years 5-10 Years 10+ Years Refer to posters 45

47 Agenda Motivation Goal Technical Approach Access Management Conclusions/Future Work 46

48 Approach to Count Existing Access Points Average access issues per mile for a given: Corridor Section Census block Total access issues on selected SMS corridors Areas (corridors or census blocks) that form top 10% of access feature density Summary statistics for each selected corridor (min, max, range, etc.) 47

49 Corridors of Statewide Significance Statewide Mobility System is inclusive of Corridors of Statewide Significance 48

50 Need for Counting Existing Access Points miles of US Access Points Bealeton Midland Calverton Calverton Catlett Low Volume Access Points High Volume Access Points

51 Need for Counting Existing Access Points (cont.) Screening sections for coincidence of risk and existing access 6 Number of Access Points Priority Score Bealeton Midland Calverton Calverton Catlett Priority Score High Volume Access Points

52 Selected Routes for Initial Experimentation Selected SMS corridors for preliminary analysis 51

53 Method of Counting Layer 1: SMS and Extended SMS Satellite imagery is used to locate and mark access features The SMS and Extended SMS layers are placed over satellite imagery * Extended SMS includes roads parallel to SMS corridors (Example: Route 11 and US 81) 52

54 Method of Counting (cont.) Layer 2: Access Feature Object Layer Access feature locations are marked and counted for corridor segments 53

55 Method of Counting (cont.) US 29 Example A: Urban area, B: Suburban area, C: Rural area

56 Method of Counting (cont.) Greater density of access features in urban corridors

57 Method of Counting (cont.) Sample results from suburban corridor

58 Method of Counting (cont.) Lower density of access features in rural corridors

59 Method of Counting (cont.) Visual challenges in locating access features: Driveway vs. Backyard 58

60 Method of Counting (cont.) Challenge in identifying highway ramp access features 59

61 Method of Counting (cont.) Challenge in identifying access features on overlapping corridors 60

62 Method of Counting (cont.) Trees and other objects may block view of access features 61

63 Method of Counting (cont.) Clouds may block view of access features for large areas 62

64 Agenda Motivation Goal Technical Approach Access Management Conclusions/Future Work 63

65 Summary of Future Work Implementation of a GIS-based model forecasting land development in a five-to ten-year horizon for the Statewide Mobility System Online training manual for VDOT and regions to use the model into the future in identifying sections of transportation corridor most vulnerable to land development Workshops and trainings with VDOT, localities, VACO, TPRAC, Rural Planning Managers, GIS user groups, and others Recommendations for VDOT uses of the developed model for Chapter 527 initiatives and strategies, and in the processes of the STIP and SYP VTRC final report documenting the model, data, and its application Recommendations for VDOT integration of the model with the GIS Integrator 64

66 Summary of Future Work (cont.) October 28, Multimodal Strategic Planning Meeting, Richmond, VA Training videos Dissemination of Results 65

67 More information at: 66