Analysis of Housing Square Footage Estimates Reported by the American Housing Survey and the Survey of Construction
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1 Analysis of Housing Square Footage Estimates Reported by the American Housing Survey and the Survey of Construction Angela Delano U.S. Census Bureau 4600 Silver Hill Road Washington DC
2 Disclaimer Any views expressed on (statistical, methodological, technical, or operational) issues are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau 2
3 Why Analyze Housing Square Footage Estimates? The size, or square footage, of a housing unit and the corresponding change of this measurement over time plays an important role in costs associated with: Buying residential homes Heating residential homes This research will analyze housing square footage estimates reported by two U.S. Census Bureau conducted surveys: American Housing Survey (AHS) Survey of Construction (SOC) 3
4 AHS Background Provides national and regional data on topics related to the quality of U.S. housing: Characteristics (bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage, etc.) Physical conditions Occupant demographics Financial data (home improvements, costs, mortgages, etc.) Longitudinal housing unit survey conducted between May and September of odd-numbered years Once selected, survey returns to same housing unit every other year for data collection Respondents are occupants and property owners 4
5 SOC Background Provides national and regional data on topics related to new, privately-owned, residential U.S. housing: Start and completion dates Characteristics (bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage, etc.) Sales data (date, price, financing) Monthly housing unit survey Monthly sample of building permits from predefined permit issuing areas Canvassing operation for new construction in predefined non-permit issuing areas Once selected, survey returns to same housing unit approximately every month until completion and/or sale Respondents are builders, owners, and sales agents 5
6 Data Sources Data sources: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (version 1.2) SOC Internal Microdata Files Data analyzed represent: Single-family houses Detached Built between years Size between ,000 square feet Exclude houses with missing data Wilcoxon Rank Sum non-parametric testing procedures used for statistical significance (90% confidence level) 6
7 Housing Square Footage Estimates Year Built Reported by the AHS Mean Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses Cases Analyzed Square Footage Standard Errors United Northeast States Midwest South West United Northeast States Midwest South West United States Northeast Midwest South West , ,942 3,952 3,076 2,811 2, % 10.0% 4.5% 3.7% 3.7% , ,849 3,045 2,905 2,876 2, % 8.5% 4.6% 3.5% 2.7% , ,736 3,480 3,021 2,676 2, % 8.4% 4.4% 3.1% 2.7% , ,854 3,031 3,186 2,697 2, % 8.9% 4.5% 2.8% 3.0% , ,900 3,356 3,130 2,799 2, % 9.4% 4.8% 2.7% 3.5% , ,970 4,087 3,531 2,679 3, % 10.8% 5.8% 3.2% 4.5% ,995 2,783 2,885 3,050 3, % 10.4% 7.6% 4.0% 4.7% ,958 3,882 2,785 3,044 2, % 14.0% 8.6% 5.1% 8.2% ,502 2,752 2,055 2,624 2, % 16.3% 4.8% 5.7% 8.0% ,281 3,106 3,985 3,190 2, % 16.8% 12.8% 8.2% 12.5% , ,078 4,420 3,122 2,887 3,356 3,071 2,790 2, % 3.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 7
8 Housing Square Footage Estimates Year Built Reported by the AHS Mean Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses Cases Analyzed Square Footage Standard Errors United Northeast States Midwest South West United Northeast States Midwest South West United States Northeast Midwest South West , ,942 3,952 3,076 2,811 2, % 10.0% 4.5% 3.7% 3.7% , ,849 3,045 2,905 2,876 2, % 8.5% 4.6% 3.5% 2.7% , ,736 3,480 3,021 2,676 2, % 8.4% 4.4% 3.1% 2.7% , ,854 3,031 3,186 2,697 2, % 8.9% 4.5% 2.8% 3.0% , ,900 3,356 3,130 2,799 2, % 9.4% 4.8% 2.7% 3.5% , ,970 4,087 3,531 2,679 3, % 10.8% 5.8% 3.2% 4.5% ,995 2,783 2,885 3,050 3, % 10.4% 7.6% 4.0% 4.7% ,958 3,882 2,785 3,044 2, % 14.0% 8.6% 5.1% 8.2% ,502 2,752 2,055 2,624 2, % 16.3% 4.8% 5.7% 8.0% ,281 3,106 3,985 3,190 2, % 16.8% 12.8% 8.2% 12.5% , ,078 4,420 3,122 2,887 3,356 3,071 2,790 2, % 3.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 8
9 Year Built Housing Square Footage Estimates Reported by the SOC Mean Square Footage Reported by SOC 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses Cases Analyzed Square Footage Standard Errors United Northeast States Midwest South West United Northeast States Midwest South West United States Northeast Midwest South West ,029 2,931 4,792 10,575 5,731 2,392 2,676 2,330 2,370 2, % 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% ,584 2,658 4,616 10,416 5,894 2,406 2,617 2,338 2,402 2, % 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% ,383 2,785 5,020 10,624 5,954 2,422 2,684 2,352 2,414 2, % 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% ,714 2,541 4,797 10,677 5,699 2,519 2,718 2,438 2,534 2, % 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% ,854 2,036 4,229 10,932 5,657 2,569 2,850 2,419 2,578 2, % 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% ,144 1,652 3,411 10,087 4,994 2,627 2,777 2,451 2,655 2, % 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% ,816 1,255 2,763 8,084 3,714 2,635 2,847 2,404 2,673 2, % 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% ,556 1,014 2,009 5,939 2,594 2,548 2,761 2,355 2,565 2, % 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% ,621 1,070 2,362 6,515 2,674 2,451 2,778 2,327 2,438 2, % 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% , ,096 5,923 2,533 2,566 2,728 2,409 2,612 2, % 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% ,233 18,922 36,095 89,772 45,444 2,506 2,736 2,384 2,519 2, % 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 9
10 Housing Square Footage Estimates Reported by the AHS and SOC Percent Difference in Mean Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 and SOC 2 in Detached Single- Family Houses Percent Difference (AHS/SOC) Statistical Significance Probabilities Year United Northeaswest United North- Built States South West States east west South West % 48% 32% 19% 16% * * * % 16% 24% 20% 11% * * * % 30% 28% 11% -1% * * * * % 12% 31% 6% 13% * * % 18% 29% 9% 10% * * % 47% 44% 1% 14% * * % -2% 20% 14% 15% * * * % 41% 18% 19% 1% * % -1% -12% 8% 3% % 14% 65% 22% 12% * * % 23% 29% 11% 10% * * * 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 2 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis * Statistically significant differences in underlying square footage distributions of the AHS and SOC at a 90% conf. level 10
11 Housing Square Footage Issues Why are there more statistically significant differences between these surveys in earlier years as opposed to recent years? To address this one must be aware of issues associated with housing square footage estimates: Sample sizes Survey designs Square footage definitions Square footage conversions 11
12 Sample Size Issue Cases Analyzed for Mean Square Footage Reported in Detached Single-Family Houses Cases Analyzed for AHS 1 Cases Analyzed for SOC 2 Year United Northeaswest United North- Built States South West States east west South West , ,029 2,931 4,792 10,575 5, , ,584 2,658 4,616 10,416 5, , ,383 2,785 5,020 10,624 5, , ,714 2,541 4,797 10,677 5, , ,854 2,036 4,229 10,932 5, , ,144 1,652 3,411 10,087 4, ,816 1,255 2,763 8,084 3, ,556 1,014 2,009 5,939 2, ,621 1,070 2,362 6,515 2, , ,096 5,923 2, , ,078 4,420 3,122190,233 18,922 36,095 89,772 45,444 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 2 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis AHS sample size smaller than SOC Small AHS sample of houses built in
13 Sample Size Issue Key takeaways: It takes a while for new construction to be represented in AHS Comparisons over recent years will be limited Updated analysis will remove houses built in
14 Survey Design Issue Mean Square Footage Percent Differences (AHS 1 /SOC 2 ) in Detached Single-Family Houses Built % 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 2 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis United States Northeast Midwest South West 14
15 Survey Design Issue Mean Square Footage Percent Difference (AHS 1 /SOC 2 ) in Detached Single-Family Houses Built % 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 2 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis United States Northeast Midwest South West 15
16 Survey Design Issue Key takeaways: AHS is a longitudinal survey; square footage changes over time due to additions SOC is a monthly survey; square footage is a snapshot at completion Comparisons over earlier years will also be limited Updated analysis will: Limit to houses built Obtain original AHS square footage where applicable 16
17 Square Footage Definition Issue AHS defines square footage as: excluded from the calculation of square footage are unfinished attics, carports, attached garages, porches that are not protected from weather (such as screened porches), and mobile home hitches; Both finished and unfinished basements are included; Square footage is based on respondent s estimate of the size of the unit SOC defines square footage as: Square footage of floor area, defined as all completely finished floor space, including space in basements and attics with finished walls, floors, and ceilings; This does not include a garage, carport, porch, unfinished attic or utility room; Unfinished areas of the basement are excluded 17
18 Square Footage Definition Issue AHS captures presence of a basement as part of the physical structure Whether the basement is finished does not influence collection of the square footage Both finished and unfinished areas of the basement are included SOC also captures presence of a basement as part of the physical structure Where a basement is identified, information on whether basement is finished (all or part) or unfinished is captured Only finished areas of a basement should be included 18
19 Survey Design Issue Key takeaways: AHS is capturing living space; all areas of basement included SOC is capturing floor space; only finished areas of basement included SOC is also capturing more detailed basement information Comparison depends on the presence and type of basement Updated analysis will: Assume unfinished housing square footage is primarily located in the basement Break out structures based upon presence and type of basement 19
20 Square Footage Conversion Issue AHS collects and estimates square footage based on the respondent estimate SOC also collects square footage based on respondent estimate Includes whether estimate is based on exterior or interior dimensions, or if the type of dimensions is unknown For estimating, SOC converts all reported square footages to exterior dimensions: Square footage based on exterior dimensions not converted Square footage based on interior dimensions increased 8% Square footage based on unknown dimensions increased 4% 20
21 Square Footage Conversion Issue Cases Analyzed for Mean Square Footage Reported in Detached Single-Family Houses Cases Analyzed for SOC 1 Cases Reporting Exterior Dimensions Percent Cases Converting to Exterior Dimensions United Northeaswest United North- United North- Year States South West States east west South West States east west South West ,029 2,931 4,792 10,575 5,731 9,011 1,074 2,152 3,973 1,812 62% 63% 55% 62% 68% ,584 2,658 4,616 10,416 5,894 8,510 1,025 2,063 3,610 1,812 64% 61% 55% 65% 69% ,383 2,785 5,020 10,624 5,954 9,146 1,167 2,282 3,959 1,738 62% 58% 55% 63% 71% ,714 2,541 4,797 10,677 5,699 8,232 1,039 2,055 3,642 1,496 65% 59% 57% 66% 74% ,854 2,036 4,229 10,932 5,657 6, ,405 3,467 1,214 70% 66% 67% 68% 79% ,144 1,652 3,411 10,087 4,994 5, ,857 1,010 73% 69% 72% 72% 80% ,816 1,255 2,763 8,084 3,714 4, , % 66% 72% 72% 76% ,556 1,014 2,009 5,939 2,594 3, , % 72% 74% 72% 79% ,621 1,070 2,362 6,519 2,674 3, , % 71% 75% 72% 75% , ,096 5,923 2,533 3, , % 70% 73% 72% 72% ,233 18,922 36,095 89,776 45,444 60,959 6,821 13,364 28,877 11,897 68% 64% 63% 68% 74% 1 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis 21
22 Square Footage Conversion Issue Key takeaway: This conversion process is in effect increasing housing square footage estimates from SOC Comparisons may potentially be altered Updated analysis will assume SOC housing square footage collected directly from respondent (similarly to AHS) with no conversion to exterior dimensions applied 22
23 Updated Analysis Rerun analysis taking issues discussed into account: Removing comparisons in recent years due to small sample Removing comparisons in earlier years due to square footage changes over time Breaking out basement presence and type Removing external square footage conversion 23
24 Updated Analysis - AHS Mean Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses by Basement Cases Analyzed Square Footage Standard Errors United Northeaswest United North- United North- Year States South West States east west South West States east west South West With Basement ,186 3,641 3,357 3,856 3,836 6% 14% 6% 10% 16% ,699 3,727 3,253 4,171 3,930 5% 9% 8% 11% 13% ,642 3,615 3,235 4,265 3,717 6% 14% 9% 11% 26% ,404 3,429 3,281 3,588 3,443 7% 15% 4% 25% 26% ,616 3,626 3,293 3,976 3,781 3% 6% 4% 6% 9% No Basement ,411 2,420 1,815 2,448 2,406 3% 14% 27% 3% 5% ,403 2,568 1,828 2,446 2,369 3% 12% 8% 5% 6% ,305 2,385 1,736 2,347 2,309 5% 138% 12% 6% 9% ,217 2,548 1,643 2,262 2,191 4% 4% 5% 5% 8% , , ,361 2,475 1,770 2,401 2,352 2% 21% 14% 2% 3% 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis First interview square footage determined where applicable 24
25 Updated Analysis - AHS Mean Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses by Basement Cases Analyzed Square Footage Standard Errors United Northeaswest United North- United North- Year States South West States east west South West States east west South West With Basement ,186 3,641 3,357 3,856 3,836 6% 14% 6% 10% 16% ,699 3,727 3,253 4,171 3,930 5% 9% 8% 11% 13% ,642 3,615 3,235 4,265 3,717 6% 14% 9% 11% 26% ,404 3,429 3,281 3,588 3,443 7% 15% 4% 25% 26% ,616 3,626 3,293 3,976 3,781 3% 6% 4% 6% 9% No Basement ,411 2,420 1,815 2,448 2,406 3% 14% 27% 3% 5% ,403 2,568 1,828 2,446 2,369 3% 12% 8% 5% 6% ,305 2,385 1,736 2,347 2,309 5% 138% 12% 6% 9% ,217 2,548 1,643 2,262 2,191 4% 4% 5% 5% 8% , , ,361 2,475 1,770 2,401 2,352 2% 21% 14% 2% 3% 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis First interview square footage determined where applicable 25
26 Updated Analysis - SOC Mean Square Footage Reported by SOC 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses by Basement Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 Square Footage Reported by SOC 2 Percent Difference (AHS/SOC) United Northeaswest United North- United North- Year States South West States east west South West States east west South West Part/All Finished Basement , ,633 3,641 3,357 3,856 3,836 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% , ,699 3,727 3,253 4,171 3,930 1% 5% 2% 2% 3% ,642 3,615 3,235 4,265 3,717 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% ,404 3,429 3,281 3,588 3,443 2% 6% 2% 3% 3% , ,844 1,037 1,032 3,616 3,626 3,293 3,976 3,781 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% Unfinished Basement ,888 1,172 2, ,410 2,527 2,213 2,855 2,232 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% , , ,397 2,590 2,148 2,902 2,326 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% , , ,342 2,535 2,137 2,700 2,193 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% , , ,303 2,543 2,104 2,478 2,248 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% ,548 3,573 6,655 2,342 1,978 2,378 2,547 2,164 2,789 2,253 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% No Basement , ,928 3,965 2,411 2,420 1,815 2,448 2,406 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% , ,156 2,885 2,403 2,568 1,828 2,446 2,369 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% , ,318 2,022 2,305 2,385 1,736 2,347 2,309 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% , ,844 2,094 2,217 2,548 1,643 2,262 2,191 0% 5% 2% 1% 1% , ,046 27,246 10,966 2,361 2,475 1,770 2,401 2,352 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis No external square footage conversion factor applied. 26
27 Updated Analysis - SOC Mean Square Footage Reported by SOC 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses by Basement Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 Square Footage Reported by SOC 2 Percent Difference (AHS/SOC) United Northeaswest United North- United North- Year States South West States east west South West States east west South West Part/All Finished Basement , ,633 3,641 3,357 3,856 3,836 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% , ,699 3,727 3,253 4,171 3,930 1% 5% 2% 2% 3% ,642 3,615 3,235 4,265 3,717 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% ,404 3,429 3,281 3,588 3,443 2% 6% 2% 3% 3% , ,844 1,037 1,032 3,616 3,626 3,293 3,976 3,781 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% Unfinished Basement ,888 1,172 2, ,410 2,527 2,213 2,855 2,232 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% , , ,397 2,590 2,148 2,902 2,326 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% , , ,342 2,535 2,137 2,700 2,193 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% , , ,303 2,543 2,104 2,478 2,248 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% ,548 3,573 6,655 2,342 1,978 2,378 2,547 2,164 2,789 2,253 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% No Basement , ,928 3,965 2,411 2,420 1,815 2,448 2,406 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% , ,156 2,885 2,403 2,568 1,828 2,446 2,369 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% , ,318 2,022 2,305 2,385 1,736 2,347 2,309 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% , ,844 2,094 2,217 2,548 1,643 2,262 2,191 0% 5% 2% 1% 1% , ,046 27,246 10,966 2,361 2,475 1,770 2,401 2,352 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis No external square footage conversion factor applied. 27
28 Updated Analysis - SOC Mean Square Footage Reported by SOC 1 in Detached Single-Family Houses by Basement Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 Square Footage Reported by SOC 2 Percent Difference (AHS/SOC) United Northeaswest United North- United North- Year States South West States east west South West States east west South West Part/All Finished Basement , ,633 3,641 3,357 3,856 3,836 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% , ,699 3,727 3,253 4,171 3,930 1% 5% 2% 2% 3% ,642 3,615 3,235 4,265 3,717 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% ,404 3,429 3,281 3,588 3,443 2% 6% 2% 3% 3% , ,844 1,037 1,032 3,616 3,626 3,293 3,976 3,781 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% Unfinished Basement ,888 1,172 2, ,410 2,527 2,213 2,855 2,232 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% , , ,397 2,590 2,148 2,902 2,326 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% , , ,342 2,535 2,137 2,700 2,193 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% , , ,303 2,543 2,104 2,478 2,248 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% ,548 3,573 6,655 2,342 1,978 2,378 2,547 2,164 2,789 2,253 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% No Basement , ,928 3,965 2,411 2,420 1,815 2,448 2,406 0% 3% 1% 0% 1% , ,156 2,885 2,403 2,568 1,828 2,446 2,369 0% 3% 2% 1% 1% , ,318 2,022 2,305 2,385 1,736 2,347 2,309 1% 4% 2% 1% 1% , ,844 2,094 2,217 2,548 1,643 2,262 2,191 0% 5% 2% 1% 1% , ,046 27,246 10,966 2,361 2,475 1,770 2,401 2,352 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis No external square footage conversion factor applied. 28
29 Updated Analysis AHS & SOC Percent Difference in Mean Square Footage Reported by AHS 1 and SOC 2 in Detached Single-Family Houses by Basement Percent Difference (AHS/SOC) Statistical Significance Probabilities Year Built United States Northeast Midwest South West United States Northeast Midwest South West With Basement (SOC Part/All Finished) % 20% 5% 1% 32% * * * * % -18% -2% 5% 16% * * * * % 1% 1% -1% 5% * * * % -10% -32% 28% 3% * * * * % -1% -4% 5% 19% * * * * * No Basement % 0% 97% 1% 13% * % -47% -5% 13% 18% * * % 155% -7% 16% 5% * % -45% -10% 5% 3% * * * % -8% 50% 7% 12% * * * * 1 Source: 2011 AHS National/Metropolitan Public Use File (v 1.2); Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis; First interview square footage determined where applicable 2 Source: SOC Internal Microdata Files; Cases with missing data or square footage outside ,000 removed from analysis; No external square footage conversion applied * Statistically significant differences in underlying square footage distributions of AHS and SOC at a 90% conf. level 29
30 Next Steps Improvements to SOC Further investigation of converting square footages to exterior dimensions Are the 4% and 8% increases appropriate? Improvements to AHS Capture of additional information regarding basement type (finished, unfinished) Would assist with comparison to SOC 30
31 Angela Delano U.S. Census Bureau 4600 Silver Hill Road Washington DC
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