Final DRAFT Keele Street, Suite 300 Concord, Ontario, L4K 1Y2 Phone:

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1 Information Technology (IT) and Telecommunication (Telecom) Waste in Canada 2003 Update Report to Environment Canada Final DRAFT Prepared by: 7501 Keele Street, Suite 300 Concord, Ontario, L4K 1Y2 Phone: October 16, 2003

2 Executive Summary Environment Canada has embarked on a program to promote stewardship of end-of-life (EoL) electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) which incorporates a wide range of categories of consumer and other electronic products from information technology (i.e. computers and peripherals) and telecom products (i.e. mobile phones and handsets) to audio/visual equipment (i.e. VCRs, televisions), kitchen appliances (i.e. toasters) and household appliances (i.e. vacuum cleaners). The first report, Information Technology and Telecommunications (Telecom) Waste in Canada, released October 2000, targeted eight products including: desktop personal computers, monitors, laptop computers, mobile phones, handset telephones, and peripherals (i.e. printers and scanners) and focused on the development of baseline estimates of IT and telecom waste in Canada including current waste generation and flow estimates and projected estimates to the year A second report commissioned by Environment Canada, Baseline Study of End-of-Life Electrical and Electronic Equipment in Canada, released June 2003, expanded the list of EEE products to include audio/visual equipment, kitchen appliances and household appliances. The report focused on development of baseline waste generation and flow estimates and projected estimates to the year This study updates the 2000 IT and Telecom waste flow estimates using revised sales information and sales forecasts from 1996 to 2010, which is consistent with the study period used for the EoL EEE study and uses a new Waste Flow Tool, which was modified and updated as part of the EoL EEE study. Table ES1 presents 2003 update figures for IT and telecom waste and also includes estimates for 23 other EEE products that were completed under Environment Canada s June 2003 baseline study of EoL EEE in Canada. The table shows that the total amount of EoL IT and telecom equipment recycled and disposed is estimated at about 81,000 tonnes in 2002 and about 91,000 tonnes in This reflects a 12% increase over this 8 year period. The 2002 amount equates to 2.7 kg/capita for the Canadian population of 30 million, or 1.1% of the disposed residential waste stream in Canada, or 0.5% of the disposed residential and industrial/commercial/institutional (IC&I) waste streams combined. If the other 23 EEE products are added in, the total EEE reaching end of life is estimated at about 167,500 tonnes in 2002 and about 224,500 tonnes in This reflects a 34% increase over this 8 year period. The 2002 amount equates to 5.6 kg/capita, or 2.4% of the disposed residential waste stream, or 1.0% of the disposed residential and IC&I waste streams combined. One of the key factors driving EEE stewardship programs is the concern over the hazardous and toxic substances in the products and their health and environmental impacts, especially if the hazardous components are not properly managed. Research conducted for this report revealed that the 1996 flagship report, Electronic Industry Environmental Roadmap, prepared by the Microelectonics and Computer Technology Corporation continues to be used by organizations for composition of IT equipment. Table ES2 shows the amount of hazardous materials found in end of life and disposed computer equipment and CRT monitors for the years 2002 and RIS International Ltd E S - i October 16, 2003

3 Table ES1 Estimated Amount of EEE Recycled and Disposed in Canada (2002 & 2010) Scenario A & B* Scenario A* Scenario B* Product Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Recycled Disposed Recycled Disposed Recycled Disposed Desktop PCs and Servers 2,527 22,741 5,338 26,061 20,723 10,675 Laptops (Notebooks) 218 1, ,783 2,213 1,140 1 Total Computers 2,745 24,705 5,908 28,844 22,936 11,815 CRT Computer Monitors 2,937 26,436 3,190 15,573 12,383 6,379 LCD Computer Monitors 0 0 1,153 5,628 4,475 2,305 2 Total Monitors 2,937 26,436 4,342 21,201 16,859 8,685 Scanners 186 3, ,984 1, Printers ,637 2,746 20,136 15,102 7,780 3 Total Scanners and Printers 1,009 19,177 3,016 22,119 16,589 8,546 Mobile Telephones (Cell) Telephone Handsets 87 1, ,536 1, Total Telephones 103 1, ,781 2,086 1,074 5 Fax Machines 105 1, ,312 1, Total IT and Telecom ( ) 6,900 74,270 13,960 77,257 60,204 31,013 Colour TVs (<23 ) , ,940 6,524 5,785 Colour TVs (23 to 29 ) ,185 1,228 39,718 21,701 19,245 Colour TVs (>29 ) 67 2, ,563 7,411 6,572 Combination TV/VCRs ,357 2,927 2,596 Rear projection TVs 38 1, ,674 4,740 4,203 7 Total Televisions 1,425 46,066 2,451 79,252 43,303 38,401 Microwave ovens 242 7, ,158 3,911 3,468 Kettles 37 1, , Toasters 84 2, ,958 1,616 1,433 Toaster ovens 42 1, , Blenders Mixers Coffee makers 113 3, ,546 3,030 2,687 8 Total Kitchen Appliances , ,289 11,086 9,831 VCRs 206 6, ,492 4,640 4,115 DVD players ,334 2,368 2,100 CD players 43 1, Cassette decks Stereo receivers , Mini/mid sized Hi Fi systems 42 1, ,694 2,565 2,274 Camcorders Portable CD players Total Audio / Visual , ,823 11,377 10,089 Clock radios 68 2, , Answering machines Vacuum cleaners 150 4, ,424 3,510 3, Total Household Appliances 246 7, ,726 4,768 4, Total Other EEE ( ) 2,585 83,576 3, ,090 70,534 62,549 Grand Total (6+11) 9, ,846 17, , ,738 93,562 * Scenario A = Status Quo (maintain recycling rates at current levels); Scenario B = Industry Action by 2004 (recycling increases to above 66% by 2010) RIS International Ltd E S - ii October 16, 2003

4 Table ES2 Estimated Quantities of Various Materials Contained in End of First Life and Disposed PCs and CRT Monitors in Canada in 2002 and 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario A Scenario B Composition End of First Life Disposed Disposed End of First Life Disposed Disposed Materials of Average 2002 Tonnes 2002 Tonnes 2002 Tonnes 2010 Tonnes 2010 Tonnes 2010 Tonnes PC & Monitor (%) PC & CRT Monitors PC & CRT Monitors PC & CRT Monitors PC & CRT Monitors PC & CRT Monitors PC & CRT Monitors Glass/Silica % 16, , , , , ,243.0 Plastics % 15, , , , , ,920.9 Ferrous % 13, , , , , ,491.1 Aluminum % 9, , , , , ,416.9 Copper 6.929% 4, , , , , ,181.7 Lead 6.299% 4, , , , , ,074.2 Zinc 2.205% 1, , , Tin 1.008% Nickel 0.850% Barium 0.032% Manganese 0.032% Silver 0.019% Beryllium 0.016% Cobalt 0.016% Tantalum 0.016% Cadmium 0.009% Antimony 0.009% Chromium 0.006% Mercury 0.002% Gold 0.002% Selenium 0.002% Arsenic 0.001% Totals % 67,009 49,177 49,177 42,801 26,823 17,054 Source: Electronic Industry Environmental Roadmap, Microelectonics and Computer Technology Corporation, 1996 RIS International Ltd E S - iii October 16, 2003

5 Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION NEW SALES DATA Desktop Personal Computers Monitors Laptops Handset Telephones Mobile Phones Fax Machines Peripherals Printers Scanners END-OF-LIFE PRODUCT FLOW TOOL ASSUMPTIONS Average Weight of Product Lifespan Assumptions Product Flow Assumptions ESTIMATED QUANTITIES OF EEE RECYLED AND DISPOSED IN CANADA Comparison of Updated Estimates with 2000 Report Estimates MATERIAL COMPOSITION 17 Page APPENDICES Appendix A IT and Telecom Waste Flow Estimates - Scenario A (Status Quo) 21 Appendix B IT and Telecom Waste Flow Estimates - Scenario B (Industry Action) 31 RIS International Ltd October 16, 2003

6 1.0 INTRODUCTION Environment Canada has embarked on a program to promote stewardship of end-of-life (EoL) electrical and electronic equipment (EEE) which incorporates a wide range of categories of consumer and other electronic products from information technology (i.e. computers and peripherals) and telecom products (i.e. mobile phones and handsets) to audio/visual equipment (i.e. VCRs, televisions), kitchen appliances (i.e. toasters) and household appliances (i.e. vacuum cleaners). Over the past several years, Environment Canada has worked with industry gathering sales data, hazardous and toxic substance information, and waste flow and recovery information in order to develop an integrated stewardship program. As part of the effort, waste flow estimates were developed in the report, Information Technology and Telecommunications (Telecom) Waste in Canada, released October 2000, which initially targeted eight products including: desktop personal computers, monitors, laptop computers, mobile phones, handset telephones, and peripherals (i.e. printers and scanners). The report focused on the development of baseline estimates of IT and telecom waste in Canada including current waste generation and flow estimates and projected estimates to the year The report identified composition of computer and monitors, focusing on hazardous and toxic substances and their estimated waste generation rates and investigated the current management and recovery infrastructure in Canada and internationally. The October 2000 IT and telecom study highlighted the growing problems associated with generation and disposal of IT and telecom waste. The report concluded that an increasing number of waste computers and telecommunications equipment are making their way to landfills and other disposal facilities across Canada pointing to the need for concerted government and industry action to manage this growing waste management issue. According to the study, between 1992 and 2000, Canadians disposed of enough IT and telecom waste to fill 953 Olympic size swimming pools. In 1999, the estimated quantity for disposal of this equipment was 36,933 tonnes, representing about 0.5% of the disposed residential waste stream in Canada, or about 0.2% of the disposed residential and IC&I waste streams combined. Following the 2000 report, Environment Canada commissioned a second study, Baseline Study of End-of-Life Electrical and Electronic Equipment in Canada, released June 2003, which expanded the list of EEE products to include audio/visual equipment (televisions, VCRs, DVD and CD players, stereo equipment, camcorders and mini/mid sized Hi Fi systems) kitchen appliances (microwave ovens, kettles, toaster, toaster ovens, mixers, coffee makers) and household appliances (clock radios, answering machines, vacuum cleaners). The report focused on development of baseline waste generation and flow estimates and projected estimates to the year 2010 and identified hazardous and toxic substances in the selected products, such as televisions, VCRs, microwave ovens, stereo systems, etc. The report investigates the current management and recovery infrastructure in Canada and elsewhere. This study concluded that the amount EoL EEE products in the waste stream is increasing because they are becoming more commonplace in society; some equipment has a relatively short useful life; and the fact that replacement costs for new equipment are often comparable to repair costs for broken equipment. The amount of selected EEE reaching end of life was estimated at about 86,000 tonnes in 2002 and about 133,000 tonnes in This amount accounts for 1.23% of the disposed residential waste stream in Canada, or about 0.5% of the disposed residential and IC&I waste streams combined. RIS International Ltd Page 1 October 16, 2003

7 In order for data generated in the IT and telecom 2000 study to be effectively compared with data generated in the 2003 EoL EEE study, Environment Canada requested an update of the 2000 IT and Telecom waste flow estimates using revised sales information and sales forecasts from 1996 to 2010, which is consistent with the study period used for the EoL EEE study and use of the new Waste Flow Tool, which was modified and updated as part of the EoL EEE study. All revisions are documented and the assumptions used for the revised sales figures are provided. In addition, should Environment Canada wish to purchase updated information in the future, sources and prices are provided for each product. The findings of this study will help to support the development of a national producer responsibility program for the recovery of end-of-life electrical and electronic equipment in Canada, by providing updated information needed for the development of future policy and program directions. RIS International Ltd Page 2 October 16, 2003

8 2.0 NEW SALES DATA Research was conducted to obtain the most current Canadian sales figures (units sold) for eight IT and telecom products as well as forecasted sales to the year The following provides a discussion of the information gathering process and the assumptions used in generating new estimates for each of the designated IT and telecom products. 2.1 Desktop Personal Computers A search for information about sales of desktop personal computers (PCs) in the Canadian market revealed that the most reliable source of information was the IT marketing company, IDC. A request for recent and projected sales information for desktop PCs in Canada was made to IDC. The information provided included actual sales of desktop PCs in Canada in 2002 and forecast sales to According to IDC press releases, the desktop PC market in Canada is looking bleak to 2006, which is reflected in an overall decline in forecast sales to The trend for future sales of desktop computers is suggesting a slow down due to a decline in consumer demand, in part because consumers are keeping their PCs longer and not replacing them as frequently as before. The replacement cycle is shifting from a three to four or five year cycle 1. Information Used in Updating Flow Estimates IDC provided desktop PC sales data for 2002 and forecast desktop sales information from 2003 to Since no forecast information was available from 2007 to 2010, it is assumed that desktop PC sales will flat line after 2007 based on information provided business reports 3. Historic sales data to 2002 came from the 2000 IT and Telecom study. Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: IDC publishes bi-annual information on unit sales of PCs (included with laptops) for Canada at CDN $2,800 IDC publishes forecast unit sales of PCs (included with laptops) for CDN $1, Monitors Over the past couple of years, the monitor market has undergone some major changes, which are reflected in the revised sales data. The year 2000 marked the introduction of the liquid crystal display (LCD) monitor. Whereas the cathode ray tube (CRT) monitor has traditionally captured the lion s share of the monitor market, the LCD is expected to gain overall market share over the course of the next few years 4. For this reason, the monitor section was divided into two segments representing CRTs and LCDs to better reflect changing market trends. Annual monitor market reports provide detailed data about the sales of all monitors in Canada. Overall, monitor sales have been on the decline since The forecast of shipments in 2003 showed a slight increase but no explanation was provided for the increase. 1 IT Trends 2003: Desktop Technology. Prepared by Rob Enderle of Giga Information Group 2 PC sales data for 2002 and forecast PC sales for 2006, provided by IDC, August "Outlook Bleak for PC Sales" Report on Business, Globe and Mail, 30 December 2002 and Computer Hardware Sales Soft through 2006 The Canadian Press, 30 December Source: The Canadian LCD Market: Press Release. Evans Research Corporation. RIS International Ltd Page 3 October 16, 2003

9 CRT monitors Research identified the most reliable source of CRT sales data, provided by Evans Research Corporation, a market research and information service company based in Toronto. Annual monitor market reports provide detailed information about the sales of CRTs in Canada. Abstracts were obtained through the Internet with sales information provided for the years 1998 to Whereas CRTs represented 98.7% of the monitor market in 2000, its share of the market had reduced to 69% by The detailed forecasts for CRT monitor sales beyond 2003 were scarce but the trend indicates that CRT shipments will continue to decline as LCDs become more popular. Shipments of CRTs are expected to decline by 20% in LCD monitors With the strong drop in LCD prices and the increased awareness of health concerns associated with CRTs, the LCD market is expected to grow as consumers move from purchasing CRTs to purchasing LCDs 6. Evans Research Corporation forecasts an exponential growth in the sales of LCDs to Sales data were provided for 2001 and Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates Evans Research provided sales information for CRTs from 1998 to 2002 and forecast CRT monitor sales for Since no forecast information waste was available from 2004 to 2010, it is assumed that CRT sales would continue to experience a cumulative 20% annual decrease to 2010 as reported in Evans Research reports and there would continue to be an overall decrease in the sales of monitors (3% annual decrease) to After 2007, it is assumed that overall monitor sales will flat line to The sales of LCDs will continue to increase which is estimated by subtracting total monitor sales from CRT sales (LCD sales data were provided by Evans Research for 2000 to 2002). There is no sales data for LCDs prior to the year 2000, since entry into the general consumer market occurred in the year CRT sales data, prior to 1998, is from the 2000 IT and Telecom study. Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: Evans Research publishes an annual market review for monitor sales in Canada, which covers CRT and LCD sales and forecasts unit sales several years in advance. The price for the latest monitor market review is CDN $1,000. Previous reviews are cheaper. 2.3 Laptops A search for information about sales of laptops in the Canadian market revealed that the most reliable source of information came from the IT marketing company, IDC. A request for recent and projected sales information for laptops in Canada was made to IDC. The information provided included actual sales of laptops in Canada in 2002 and forecast sales to The Monitor Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation 6 IT Trends 2003: Desktop Technology. Prepared by Rob Enderle of Giga Information Group. 7 The Canadian LCD Market: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation. 8 The Monitor Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Monitor Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Monitor Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Monitor Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation. 8 The Canadian Computer Display Market: First Quarter Evans Research Corporation; The Monitor Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation RIS International Ltd Page 4 October 16, 2003

10 According to several sources, the laptop market is expected to show a slight surge in sales in 2003 due to the double cohort situation in Ontario. Sales in 2002 experienced a decline and forecasted sales in 2004 are expected to decline as well, which is reflected in forecasts provided by IDC. Overall, laptops have been gaining market share at the expense of PCs, part of the reason for the decline in desktop sales is because notebook (laptop) computers are stealing market share. In four years, the percentage (market share) will rise to a quarter (from 21.7 % in 2002). 10 The trend in the US is even more striking as the sales of laptop computers exceeded those of desktop computers in Spring of Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates IDC provided desktop laptop sales data for 2002 and forecast laptop sales information from 2003 to Since no forecast information was available from 2007 to 2010, it is assumed that laptop sales will flat line after 2007 based on information provided business reports 12. Historic sales data to 2002 came from the 2000 IT and Telecom study. Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: IDC publishes bi-annual information on unit sales of laptops (included with PCs) for Canada at CDN $2,800 IDC publishes forecast unit sales of laptops (included with PCs) for CDN $1, Handset Telephones Research was conducted to identify new data on handset telephone sales but no new data was found. A request for handset telephone sales information from Statistics Canada and telephone manufacturers (i.e. Telus) provided no results. Estimates from the 2000 IT and Telecom Waste report were used. New primary research conducted into the cost to purchase a corded and cordless phones show that prices have risen steadily since the sales estimates were first calculated in the 2000 report. The average price for a cordless phone is $160 based on the averaged price of 34 cordless phones sold through Staples in 2003 and the average price for a corded phone is $100 based on the averaged price of 9 corded phones sold through Bell Canada in This compares with the original prices of $100 for a cordless and $80 for a corded phone used in the 2000 report. Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates Since no new telephone sales information was uncovered during this research, sales data from the original 2000 IT and Telecom report was used to In the 2000 report, sales figures show a steady 2% increase from 2000 to Since no forecast information is available from 2005 to 2010, it is assumed that telephones will continue to experience a 2% increase in sales during this period. The cost of phones has increased over the past years. The average price in 10 "Double cohort lifts struggling PC market" Toronto Star, 9 May Laptop sales data for 2002 and forecast PC sales for 2006, provided by IDC, August Market Rebound Unlikely to Materialize for IDC Press Release - 1 November 2002 RIS International Ltd Page 5 October 16, 2003

11 2003 for a cordless phone is $160 13, compared with $100 used in the 2000 study and the average price in 2003 for a corded phone is $100 14, compared with $80 used in the 2000 study. The calculations now reflect these price increases, which has resulted in a decrease the number of phones purchased over the years. Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities Communications with Statistics Canada, IDC and Evans Research revealed that no unit sales data for handset telephones is available. Statistics Canada stopped tracking unit sales information in The Industry Canada report used to determine telephone expenditures is no longer published. 2.5 Mobile Phones The Canadian mobile wireless phone industry has achieved rapid growth in market penetration since its launch in Canada continues to be a leader in mobile use. The mobile phone market will achieve 34% penetration of the Canadian market in Most European countries have a mobile penetration rate that exceeds 70% and consequently, have reached a saturation point in new sales. According to Marc Choma, Director of Communications, Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association, some countries, such as Japan and Norway has reached 100% and 90% penetration, respectively. While some analysts predict that the Canadian mobile wireless market could achieve 70% penetration (according to IDC), the slowing down of sales over the past couple of years indicates that a lower penetration level is more likely. Also, Canada has one of the best land-line telephone systems in the world, unlike European countries (according to Industry Canada, 98% of Canadian households have telephone service). The Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association provides an excellent source of information about the changing face of mobile wireless subscribers in Canada over the past two decades. Detailed data is available on the number of Canadian subscribers to date and net additions for each year from 1985 to Strategy Analytics of the US published replacement sales compared with new sales as a percent of total North American sales from 2000 to Replacement sales in North America were 48% of total sales in 2000 and 2001 and are expected to grow to over 60% by 2007 due to the introduction of new mobile wireless technology, such as smart phones and camera phones. According to Nokia, a subscriber will upgrade their mobile phone every 2.5 years 17, which works out to a replacement rate between 45% and 60%. Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates The Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association provides industry data on total Canadian mobile phones subscribers from 1985 to 2002 and 1st quarter for In order to estimate 2003 subscribers, we used available information from 2001 and 2002 (since we know the mobile phone market achieved 34% penetration of the Canadian market in 2001 and that 1st quarter sales for 2001 and 2002 represented 18% and 21% of total sales, respectively, then we can calculate sales for 2003 by assuming that 1st quarter sales for 2003 also represents 13 Prices based on the averaged price of 34 cordless phones sold through Staples in Prices based on the averaged price of 9 corded phones sold through Bell Canada in Telus Mobility website at 16 "More Replacements than New Sales for American Market". Cellular News, June 11, Handsets: Catching Customers With Color. Wireless Week. January 1, 2003 RIS International Ltd Page 6 October 16, 2003

12 ~20% of total sales, which extrapolates to 767,850 estimated total sales for 2003). Since no forecast information was available from 2003 to 2010, it is assumed that new subscribers will remain constant from 2003 to In order to estimate mobile phone replacement rates, we used information provided by Nokia that a subscriber will upgrade their mobile phone ever 2.5 years (rounded to a 3 year replacement rate). The replacement rate was added to the subscriber rate to calculate total unit sales of mobile phones. Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: IDC publishes wireless market reports such as From Mouth to Ear: Canadian Wireless Market Forecast and Analysis, Price is CDN $ 2, 875. IDC publishes annual information on unit sales of wireless phones for Canada at CDN $2,500 IDC publishes forecast unit sales of wireless phones for CDN $1, Fax Machines Research uncovered minimal sales data information for fax machines. In fact, the only information uncovered pertained to the United States fax machine market, which predicted a marginal 1.4% annual growth rate, according to IDC 18. Furthermore, research revealed that the Internet facsimile market is expected to significantly increase and, coupled with , will severely threaten traditional fax machine sales 19. Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates Since no other sales information for fax machines could be found during the research, we used the 1984 to 1999 unit sales information, provided in the 2002 report, Industry Roadmap: Overview of a National Action Plan for Management of End of Life IT and Telecom Equipment in Canada 20. It is assumed that the Canadian fax machine market experienced a 1.4% growth in sales from 1999 to 2002, imitating estimated fax machine sales in the United States. 21 Since more people are switching to internet faxes, which is expected to grow to 2005, it is assumed that fax machine sales will experience a small decrease (1% decrease per year) from 2002 to 2005 then sales will flat line from 2006 to Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: IDC head office in the United States publishes an annual fax machine market review and forecast for the USA which provides the past unit shipments and value for the US and world wide fax machine market. Price US $3, Peripherals Peripherals are a category of products that provide supporting infrastructure to the computer, specifically printers and scanners. Information typically is obtained on individual products, in this case, printers and scanners. 18 Facsimile Machine and Facsimile MFP Market Review and Forecast , Abstract, IDC, October Worldwide Internet Facsimile Market Forecast and Analysis, Abstract, IDC, January Industry Roadmap: Overview of a National Action Plan for Management of End of Life IT and Telecom Equipment in Canada Prepared by RIS for the Information Technology Association in Canada (ITAC) 21 Facsimile Machine and Facsimile MFP Market Review and Forecast , Abstract, IDC, October 1999 RIS International Ltd Page 7 October 16, 2003

13 2.7.1 Printers Evans Research Corporation offered the most reliable source of printer sales data. Annual printer market reports provide detailed information about the sales of printers in Canada. Abstracts were obtained through the Internet with sales information provided for the years 1998 to The latest report forecast annual percentage shipment growth of printers in Canada to The printer industry forecasts an increase in the sales of multi-function inkjet printers at the expense in sales of single-function inkjet printers, which are expected to significantly decline. This projection is supported by similar forecasts in the reduced sale of facsimile machines due to a surge in sales of multi-function printers. Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates Data provided by Evans Research was used in determining sales of printers in Canada from 1998 to 2002 and to forecast sales to According to Evans Research, the average increase in annual sales from 2002 to 2006 is 2%, which is applied annually from 2007 to Historic sales data to 1998 came from the 2000 IT and Telecom study. Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: Evans Research publishes an annual market review for printer sales in Canada, which covers sales and forecasts unit sales several years in advance. The price for the latest monitor market review is CDN $1,000. Previous reviews are cheaper Scanners Again, Evans Research offered the most reliable source of scanner sales data through its annual scanner market reports, which provide detailed information about the sales of scanners in Canada from 1998 to Flatbed scanners account for 98% of all scanner purchases according to the industry. The top five flatbed scanner venders are Hewlett Packard, Canon, UMAX, Microtek and BenQ 23. In addition, an industry snapshot report, by Evans Research, forecast scanner sales in 2003 and Industry has observed a decline in the sales of scanners since According to the report, scanners will continue to experience reduced sales in the upcoming years due to a drop in market demand and growing popularity of multifunctional printers. Assumptions Used in Updating Flow Estimates Data provided by Evans Research was used in determining sales of scanners in Canada from 1998 to Scanner sales have been on the decline since 2000 due to a drop in market demand and growing popularity of multi-functional printers. Between 2000 and 2002 scanner sales averaged 10% decline annually. Therefore, it is assumed that scanner sales will continue to experience a 10% annual decline to Historic sales data to 1998 came from the 2000 IT and Telecom study. 22 The Printer Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Printer Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Printer Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Printer Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation 23 The Canadian Scanner Market: First Quarter Evans Research Corporation. 24 The Scanner Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Scanner Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Scanner Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation; The Scanner Market in Canada: Abstract. Evans Research Corporation RIS International Ltd Page 8 October 16, 2003

14 Purchasing Sales Data Opportunities The following sources of information can be purchased: Evans Research publishes an annual market review for scanner sales in Canada, which sales and forecasts unit sales several years in advance. The price for the latest monitor market review is CDN $1,000. Previous reviews are cheaper. 3.0 END-OF-LIFE PRODUCT FLOW TOOL ASSUMPTIONS To update the estimates of EoL IT and Telecom equipment recycled and discarded annually from 1996 to 2010 RIS used the latest version of EoL Product Flow Tool which was used for the estimates in the 2003 Baseline Study of End-of-Life Electrical and Electronic Equipment in Canada report. This model uses a combination of annual sales data, expected life of the product, and unit weight data to estimate the weight of product flowing through various parts of the system from generation through first life, reuse, storage, recycling and disposal. The 2003 EoL Product Flow Tool differs from the one used in the 2000 IT and Telecom Waste In Canada report in that it assumes all material in storage and reuse is eventually recycled or disposed. The 2000 version of the model assumed only 50 percent was). The following section describes the step-by-step process used to develop the waste flow IT and telecom estimates. 3.1 Average Weight of Product Average weights (kg/unit) for the targeted IT and telecom products were obtained from a number of sources (see Table 3.1). Table 3.1 Unit Weight Assumptions for IT and Telecom Products Product Avg. Weight Data Sources (kg) CRT Monitors 13.6 Electronic Product Recovery and Recycling Baseline Report, US National Safety Council s Environmental Health Centre, May 1999 LDC Monitors 7.0 RIS estimate based on product weight data for new LCD monitors Desktop Computers 13.6 Electronic Product Recovery and Recycling Baseline Report, US National Safety Council s Environmental Health Centre, May 1999 Laptop Computers 4.5 Electronic Product Recovery and Recycling Baseline Report, US National Safety Council s Environmental Health Centre, May 1999 Printers 8.8 Scrap Computer Processing, Technical Report # 7, University of Massachusetts Amherst, August 1998 Scanners 7.0 RIS estimate based on product weight data for new and used scanners Fax Machines 7.0 RIS estimate based on primary research and product weight data for new and used fax machines Mobile Telephones 0.16 RIS estimate based on primary research and product weight data for new and used mobile phones Telephone Handsets 1.0 RIS estimate based on primary research and product weight data for new and used phones RIS International Ltd Page 9 October 16, 2003

15 3.2 Lifespan Assumptions The EoL Product Flow Tool calculates the number of units of each product that are discarded annually based on a number of assumptions about the lifespan of each product. The lifespan is a combination of the length of time the product remained with its first owner in its original use (its first life ) followed by the number of years it was reused, or remained in storage before being discarded by the last owner. General trends were used in determining lifespans for individual IT and Telecom products. The trends are provided as follows: CRT Monitors A report published by the National Safety Council in 1999 estimates the average lifespan for a CRT purchased in the late 1990s at 4-7 years which consistent with Dell lifespan estimates of 4-5 years. 25 With the introduction of LCDs in 2000, analysts predict a continual decline in the sales of CRTs as consumers replace their existing models with LCDs 26. For this reason, the average lifespan of CRTs was reduced to less than 4 years to reflect the replacement rate of LCDs. LCD Monitors One of the advantages of LCDs is they last longer than CRTs. The average lifespan of an LCD is about 6-7 years. 27 A conservative estimate of 5 years was used for the lifespan assumptions which takes into consideration upgrade of LCDs (e.g. from 15 screen to 17 screen) as prices decline. Desktop Computers - A report published by the National Safety Council in 1999 estimates the average lifespan for a PC purchased in the late 1990s at 3.1 years; the National Recycling Coalition reports the lifespan for a desktop computer at 3-4 years for a Pentium II computer and the Department of Information Resources, Texas claims that the current industry standard for a desktop is 4-5 years. 28 Communications with Wayne Rifer of National Electronics Product Stewardship Initiative indicates that people will not be replacing their computers as often in the future since the computers now are as powerful as they will ever need. It is assumed majority of PCs will be in use for 4 years before being retired. Laptops The National Recycling Coalition reports the lifespan for a Notebook PC at 4 years while the Department of Information Resources, Texas claims that the current industry standard for a laptop is 2-3 years 29. It is assumed the majority of laptops will be in use for 3 years before being retired. Printers and Scanners - A report published by the National Safety Council in 1999 estimates the average lifespan for a printer or scanner purchased in the late 1990s at 3-5 years which consistent with the National Recycling Coalition which reports the lifespan of 5 years. Since scanners and traditional printers are being replaced by the multi- 25 Electronic Product Recovery and Recycling Baseline Report.US National Safety Council. May 1999 and Dell LCD monitor specifications at 26 The Monitor Market in Canada: Evans Research Corporation Dell LCD monitor specifications at and 28 Electronic Product Recovery and Recycling Baseline Report.US National Safety Council. May 1999; Bridging the Borders to Electronic Reuse and Recycling. National Recycling Coalition. August 28, 2002; PC Life Cycles: Department of Information Resources, Austin, Texas, January Bridging the Borders to Electronic Reuse and Recycling. National Recycling Coalition. August 28, 2002; PC Life Cycles: Department of Information Resources, Austin, Texas, January The Scanner Market in Canada: Evans Research Corporation The Monitor Market in Canada: First Quarter Evans Research Corporation RIS International Ltd Page 10 October 16, 2003

16 functional printer 30, (which includes a printer fax, scanner and copier in one) it is assumed that most existing printers and scanners will be replaced about every 3 years for the next decade. Fax Machines - The National Recycling Coalition which reports the lifespan of computer peripherals at 5 years which is confirmed by other sources showing the lifespan of a fax machine to be 5 years 31. A more conservative lifespan averaging 4 years was used. Mobile Phone Industry claims that the average replacement cycle for a mobile phone is 2.5 years 32. It is assumed that majority of cell phones will be replaced after 3 years. Telephone Handsets Lifespan information was based on RIS research which indicates corded phones last about 10 years whereas cordless phones do not last as long. Sales information indicates that purchases of corded phones versus cordless phones are roughly a 50:50 split. It is assumed most telephones are replaced between 6 to 8 years. The lifespan assumptions used in for this report are shown in Table 3.2. Lifespan information came from industry contacts, e-waste recycling reports, documents about trends for electronics, etc. The estimates can easily be updated as new research or information becomes available. Table 3.2 Lifespan (First Life) Assumptions for 2002 Product First Life Lifespan Assumptions Avg. First Life CRT Monitors 60% last 4 years and 40% last 3 years 3.6 years LCD Monitors 30% last 6 years, 40% last 5 years and 30% last 4 years 5.0 years Desktop Computers 50% last 4 years and 50% last 3 years 3.5 years Laptop Computers 40% last 4 years and 60% last 3 years 3.4 years Printers 10% last 4 years, 70% last 3 years and 20% last 2 years 2.9 years Scanners 10% last 4 years, 70% last 3 years and 20% last 2 years 2.9 years Fax Machines 30% last 6 years, 40% last 4 years and 30% last 2 years 4.0 years Mobile Telephones 10% last 4 years, 60% last 3 years and 30% last 2 years 2.8 years Telephone Handsets 20% last 10 years, 30% 8 years, 30% 6 years and 20% years 3.3 Product Flow Assumptions The right side of the Product Flow Tool estimates how much EoL equipment (units and tonnes) is sent to the following four possible outlets: 1) Reuse (i.e., direct resale without refurbishing, donated, cascaded through family and friends); 2) Storage (e.g., basement, office warehouse, etc.); 3) Recycling (Canadian e-waste recyclers typically refurbish equipment for resale where possible and dismantle and sort the remaining equipment into component parts such as circuit boards, power supplies, CRTs, metal and plastic casings, and 31 Bridging the Borders to Electronic Reuse and Recycling. National Recycling Coalition. August 28, 2002; Systemcare UK website at Fax Machine Buyers Guide at 32 Handsets: Catching Customers with Color. Wireless Week.January 1, 2003 RIS International Ltd Page 11 October 16, 2003

17 wires. Sorted materials are then sold to secondary recyclers or smelters for further processing. Shredding also is an important recycling activity); and, 4) Disposal (e.g., landfill or incineration). Table 3.3 presents flow assumptions for IT and telecom products directed to storage, reuse, and recycling or disposal. The Product Flow Tool operates on the assumption that all equipment going to reuse or storage has an additional 2 to 3 years of life left after its first life before it enters either the recycling or disposal stream 33. Thus, the total number of units disposed or recycled in any given year includes a percentage of obsolete equipment from that year plus a percentage of the equipment that went into storage or reuse 2 to 3 years earlier. Product Table 3.3 Allocation of EEE Products After First Life to Reuse to Storage Recycling or Disposal CRT Monitors 40% 10% 50% LDC Monitors 40% 10% 50% Desktop Computers 40% 10% 50% Laptop Computers 40% 10% 50% Printers 40% 10% 50% Scanners 40% 10% 50% Fax Machines 30% 10% 60% Mobile Telephones 40% 10% 50% Telephone Handsets 50% 5% 45% The assumptions in the above table are based on information in the literature, modified in some cases by information from discussions with industry representatives. Note that the allocation to recycling and disposal is one value, which is sub-divided between these two destinations depending on the assumptions used regarding the availability of recycling options in different years. For this study, to be consistent with the January, 2003 EEE study, two scenarios were developed to show a range of values for future recycling and disposal of IT and telecom waste: Scenario A (Status Quo) assumes the recycling efforts remains at the current level and is 12% to 17% (depending on the product) by 2010, and; Scenario B (Industry Action by 2004) assumes that a comprehensive national EoL electronics recovery program is implemented by 2004 and fully operational and mature by year , diverting 66% of this material from final disposal through enhanced recycling. Canadian governments are currently working with the Canadian electronics industry sector to foster a national, industry-financed product recovery program for post-consumer electronics in Canada. 33 Two years for computers (desktop and laptop), scanners, printers and mobile phones, and three years for monitors, fax machines and handsets. 34 Assumes a program implementation date of RIS International Ltd Page 12 October 16, 2003

18 Table 3.4 and 3.5 present recycling and disposal end-of-life flow assumptions for Scenarios A and B. Waste flow estimates are based on the assumption that 5% of EoL computers and CRT monitors entering municipal waste management systems were recycled from 1985 to 1999, and 10% were from 2000 to Scenario A and B estimates for EoL fax machines, printers, scanners and telephones assume no recycling from 1985 to 1999 and 5% from 2000 to All Scenario A estimates assume a 1% per year increase in recycling from 2004 to 2010 and all Scenario B estimates, an 8% per year increase over the same period. Table 3.4 Recycling and Disposal Assumptions for Computers and CRT Monitors Scenario A (Status Quo) Scenario B (Industry Action by 2004) Period Recycled Disposed Recycled Disposed 1985 to % 95% 5% 95% 2000 to % 90% 10% 90% % 89% 18% 82% % 88% 26% 74% % 87% 34% 66% % 86% 42% 58% % 85% 50% 50% % 84% 58% 42% % 83% 66% 34% Table 3.5 Recycling and Disposal Assumptions for LCD Monitors, Printers, Scanners, Fax, and Phones Scenario B Scenario A (Industry Action by (Status Quo) 2004) Period Recycled Disposed Recycled Disposed 1985 to % 100% 0% 100% 2000 to % 95% 5% 95% % 94% 18% 82% % 93% 26% 74% % 92% 34% 66% % 91% 42% 58% % 90% 50% 50% % 89% 58% 42% % 88% 66% 34% RIS International Ltd Page 13 October 16, 2003

19 4.0 ESTIMATED QUANTITIES OF EEE RECYCLED AND DISPOSED IN CANADA Table 4.0 presents updated waste flow estimates for telephones, computers, computer monitors, scanners, printers, and fax machines as well as Environment Canada s baseline estimates for 23 other EEE products in four categories (televisions, audio-visual equipment, kitchen appliances and household appliances) from the 2003 Baseline Study of End-of-Life EEE in Canada report. Estimates for each product are provided in Appendix A (Scenario A estimates) and Appendix B (Scenario B estimates). Table 4.0 shows that the total amount of EoL IT and telecom equipment recycled and disposed is estimated at about 81,000 tonnes in 2002 and about 91,000 tonnes in This reflects a 12% increase over this 8 year period. The 2002 amount equates to 2.7 kg/capita for the Canadian population of 30 million, or 1.1% of the disposed residential waste stream in Canada, or 0.5% of the disposed residential and industrial/commercial/institutional (IC&I) waste streams combined. If the other 23 EEE products are added in, the total EEE reaching end of life is estimated at about 167,500 tonnes in 2002 and about 224,500 tonnes in This reflects a 34% increase over this 8 year period. The 2002 amount equates to 5.6 kg/capita, or 2.4% of the disposed residential waste stream, or 1.0% of the disposed residential and IC&I waste streams combined. Computers and monitors account for 70% of the total EoL IT and telecom equipment recycled and disposed in This fraction decreases to 66% in 2010 due in part to the increasing popularity of LCD monitors, which are lighter than CRT monitors. The vast majority of computers and monitors are currently managed as part of the municipal waste stream, and the estimated 57,000 tonnes of computers and monitors which required management in 2002 accounted for about 0.8% of the residential waste stream, and 0.3% of the total municipal solid waste stream. RIS International Ltd Page 14 October 16, 2003

20 Table 4.0 Estimated Amounts of EEE Recycled and Disposed in Canada (2002 & 2010) Scenario A & B* Scenario A* Scenario B* Product Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Tonnes Recycled Disposed Recycled Disposed Recycled Disposed Desktop PCs and Servers 2,527 22,741 5,338 26,061 20,723 10,675 Laptops (Notebooks) 218 1, ,783 2,213 1,140 1 Total Computers 2,745 24,705 5,908 28,844 22,936 11,815 CRT Computer Monitors 2,937 26,436 3,190 15,573 12,383 6,379 LCD Computer Monitors 0 0 1,153 5,628 4,475 2,305 2 Total Monitors 2,937 26,436 4,342 21,201 16,859 8,685 Scanners 186 3, ,984 1, Printers ,637 2,746 20,136 15,102 7,780 3 Total Scanners and Printers 1,009 19,177 3,016 22,119 16,589 8,546 Mobile Telephones (Cell) Telephone Handsets 87 1, ,536 1, Total Telephones 103 1, ,781 2,086 1,074 5 Fax Machines 105 1, ,312 1, Total IT and Telecom ( ) 6,900 74,270 13,960 77,257 60,204 31,013 Colour TVs (<23 ) , ,940 6,524 5,785 Colour TVs (23 to 29 ) ,185 1,228 39,718 21,701 19,245 Colour TVs (>29 ) 67 2, ,563 7,411 6,572 Combination TV/VCRs ,357 2,927 2,596 Rear projection TVs 38 1, ,674 4,740 4,203 7 Total Televisions 1,425 46,066 2,451 79,252 43,303 38,401 Microwave ovens 242 7, ,158 3,911 3,468 Kettles 37 1, , Toasters 84 2, ,958 1,616 1,433 Toaster ovens 42 1, , Blenders Mixers Coffee makers 113 3, ,546 3,030 2,687 8 Total Kitchen Appliances , ,289 11,086 9,831 VCRs 206 6, ,492 4,640 4,115 DVD players ,334 2,368 2,100 CD players 43 1, Cassette decks Stereo receivers , Mini/mid sized Hi Fi systems 42 1, ,694 2,565 2,274 Camcorders Portable CD players Total Audio / Visual , ,823 11,377 10,089 Clock radios 68 2, , Answering machines Vacuum cleaners 150 4, ,424 3,510 3, Total Household Appliances 246 7, ,726 4,768 4, Total Other EEE ( ) 2,585 83,576 3, ,090 70,534 62,549 Grand Total (6+11) 9, ,846 17, , ,738 93,562 * Scenario A = Status Quo (maintain recycling rates at current levels); Scenario B = Industry Action by 2004 (recycling increases to above 66% by 2010) RIS International Ltd Page 15 October 16, 2003