Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Transcription

1 Cyber-Physical Energy Systems LECTURE 3 PRINCIPLES OF MODELING FOR CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEMS INSTRUCTOR: MADHUR BEHL Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 1

2 Tea Time In Britain Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 2

3 Peaks occur during major sporting events Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 3

4 Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 4

5 Price Volatility: Summer peak Nominal price: $25/MWh Peak Price: $800/MWh 32x! 20 th, July 2015 Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 5

6 Price volatility is the new normal PJM (ISO) Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) example Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 6

7 Peak Demand is Expensive! Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 7

8 Peak Demand is Expensive! Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 8

9 Peak Demand is Expensive! Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 9

10 Total electricity generation capacity in U.S GW Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 10

11 Total electricity generation capacity in U.S GW 1 Large Hadron Collider Peak demand 200 MW Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 11

12 Total electricity generation capacity in U.S GW 1 Large Hadron Collider Peak demand 200 MW 5,950 LHCs Running at the same time Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 12

13 10,000,000 simultaneous superchargers at peak capacity Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 13

14 All kilowatts are not created equally Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 14

15 Demand Response Reliable Clean Cost-Effective Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 15

16 Imagine getting paid for doing nothing Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 16

17 Imagine getting paid for doing nothing NIGERIAN MAIL SCAM Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 17

18 Imagine getting paid, or otherwise compensated, for not using electricity during peak hours! Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 18

19 A Demand Response Event Peak anticipated due to forecast Electricity Load (GW) Electricity Load Increases DR Curtailment Demand Response Dispatch Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 19

20 Demand Response Looks familiar Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 20

21 Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 21

22 Q) If you don t know what's going to happen when you change a set-point. How do you even know the change is worth making? Q) What is the best change that you can make right now? Model-based predictive control (MPC) What kind of models? Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 22

23 The control problem in buildings Integrated control of: Heating Cooling Ventilation Lighting Blinds Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 23

24 Model Predictive Control (MPC) Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 24

25 Generation, Transmission, Distribution: Supply-side Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 25

26 Modeling the grid dynamics? Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 26

27 Modeling the grid dynamics? Not in this course. IEEE 39 New England Power Grid Model 39 transmission buses 10 generators Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 27

28 Electricity consumption Buildings: Demand-side Commercial, Industrial & Institutional (C/I/I) Resedential Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 28

29 Why Buildings? 40% Portion of global energy use 70% Portion of electricity consumption in the United States 1/3 Portion of global total CO 2 emissions Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 29

30 Electricity use due to cooling, 62% Portion of natural gas use 86% lighting and ventilation dedicated to space heating Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 30

31 How are building models obtained today? White Box Grey Box Ta 1/Uco [Ceiling] Cci Tco Q. sol,c 1/Ucw Cci Q. rad,c Q. sol,e Q. rad,e 1/Uci Tci Q. conv + Q. sens Ta [Windows] Q. solt/2 Q. solt/2 Ta 1/Ueo 1/Uew 1/Uei 1/Uwin Tii Tio Ti Teo [External Walls] Ceo Tei Cei 1/Ugi Tz 1/Uii 1/Uiw 1/Uio [Internal Cii Cio Walls] Cgi Q. rad,g Tgi 1/Ugw Tgo Cgo 1/Ugo [Floor] Tg Black Box Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 31

32 How are building models obtained today? White Box Grey Box Black Box Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 32

33 White-Box Modeling Not always available Floor Plan HVAC layout Model Tuning Data Sensor retrofits First principles based building energy simulation Set parameters Floor by floor Zone by zone Wall by wall Layer by layer Equipment by equipment Transfer geometry Guess nominal parameter values Hire building modeling experts Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 33

34 White-Box Modeling Not always available Cost and time prohibitive Floor Plan (sensor installation, commissioning & expertise) HVAC layout Model Tuning Data Sensor retrofits First principles based High fidelity Building energy simulation Set parameters Floor by floor Zone by zone Wall by wall Layer by layer Equipment by equipment Transfer geometry Not suitable for model-based control Model complexity and uncertainty, (1000 s parameters and states) Guess nominal parameter values Hire building modeling experts Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 34

35 How are building models obtained today? White Box Grey Box Ta 1/Uco [Ceiling] Cci Tco Q. sol,c 1/Ucw Cci Q. rad,c Q. sol,e Q. rad,e 1/Uci Tci Q. conv + Q. sens Ta [Windows] Q. solt/2 Q. solt/2 Ta 1/Ueo 1/Uew 1/Uei 1/Uwin Tii Tio Ti Teo [External Walls] Ceo Tei Cei 1/Ugi Tz 1/Uii 1/Uiw 1/Uio [Internal Cii Cio Walls] Cgi Q. rad,g Tgi 1/Ugw Tgo Cgo 1/Ugo [Floor] Tg Black Box Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 35

36 Grey-Box [Inverse] Modeling Not always available Floor Plan HVAC layout Parameter Estimation Data Sensor retrofits Set parameters Floor by floor Zone by zone Wall by wall Layer by layer Equipment by equipment Transfer geometry Lumped Parameter RC model Guess nominal parameter values Hire building modeling experts Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 36

37 Grey-Box Modeling: RC networks Discrete-Time State Space Model: (parameterized by θ) States (All node temperatures): x = [T eo, T ei, T co, T ci, T go, T gi, T io, T ii, T z ] T Inputs (Disturbances and Control): u = [T a, T g, T i, Q sole, Q solc, Q rade, Q radc, Q radg, Q solt, Q conv, Q sens ] T Parameter Estimation: Least Squares Error Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 37

38 Heating, Ventilation, & Air Conditioning Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 38

39 HVAC is everywhere.. It is all around us, Even now, in this very room, You can feel it,..when you go to work,..when you go home..when you pay your electricity bill Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 39

40 Its all about comfort.. Temperature Humidity Pressure Ventilation 68 F (20 C) and 75 F (25 C) 30% relative humidity (RH) and 60% RH A slightly positive pressure to reduce outside air infiltration. Rooms typically have several complete air changes per hour Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 40

41 Components of HVAC System 5 system loops.. Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 41

42 Air handling systems Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 42

43 Air handling systems Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 43

44 Air handling system Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 44

45 Air handling unit Exhaust air Return air Outside air Supply air Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 45

46 Air handling unit Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 46

47 Air terminals: Constant Air Volume (CAV) Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 47

48 Air terminals: Variable Air Volume (VAV) Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 48

49 Ceiling plenum return The plenum is the space between the ceiling and the roof, or floor, above. Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 49

50 Air-Water interface- Heat exchanger. Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 50

51 Chilled water loop Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 51

52 Chiller plants Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 52

53 Just chilling as a grad student Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 53

54 my biggest fans Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 54

55 Chiller plants 4 million gallons of water at 42 degree Fahrenheit 26 MW peak load Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 55

56 Cooling towers Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 56

57 Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 57

58 Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 58

59 Meeting zone loads Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 59

60 Control loops Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 60

61 Local control loops Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 61

62 Local control loops Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 62

63 Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 63

64 Next lecture.. Creating a dynamical system model of a zone. Principles of modeling for CPS Fall 2018 MADHUR BEHL - MADHUR.BEHL@VIRGINIA.EDU 64