Information Technology Support for Open Source Intelligence Analysis & Production

Transcription

1 Information Technology Support for Open Source Intelligence Analysis & Production Stephen J. Andriole Drexel University 3gI

2 Outline of Presentation * The Range of Information Technologies * The Underexploitation of Information Technology -- Especially for Open Source Analysis * Technologies with Special Promise * Investment Strategies 382-

3 The Range of Information Technologies omputerized Libraries * omputer-based Analytical Methodology * omputer-mediated onferencing * omputer-supported ooperative Work * Data Extraction & onversion Software * Expert Database Systems; Database Machines * Expert Inference-Making Systems * FAX, , Voice Mail, EDI, ISDN a MIS/DSS/EIS * Hypertext/Hypermedia * LANs, WANs * Optical Storage Technologies Multi-Processing Architectures * Expert Query Languages * AD, AM, ASE * Adaptive, Intelligent UI * Speech I/O * Biological Emulators... *Adapted from Straub & Wetherbe 393

4 The Underexploitation of IT * Long Neglect of Analysis Vs. ollection * Short on Analytical Process Modeling * Short on Exploitation of Open Sources * I&W Experiences ** UPI, FBIS ** NN * Synthesis * Short on OS Structure & Tendency Analysis * Limited Application of omputer-based Analytical Methods * Sub-Optimal Staffing & Training * The ult of the "Artist" Vs. the "Engineer" * Organizational onstraints to Horizontal & Vertical Analyses 3g9

5 Technologies with Special Promise * Low-Level Intelligent Inference-Making Systems * Hybrid, "ompetitive" alculators * Multimedia 3tg-

6 Low-Level Intelligent Inference-Making Systems * Bounded Vs. Unbounded Problems * Reallocation of Intelligence Analysis Tasks from Humans to omputer-based Systems * Rearrangement of Tasks According to Relative Strengths of Organic & Electronic Systems * Quasi- & Fully-Automated Inference Models * Fact, Knowledge Builders * "Anticipatory Modeling" * Open Source "Feeders" * Scenario Forward Generation, Play-Back, Play * Simple ase-based Reasoning... 38gt

7 Hybrid, "ompetitive" alculators * Simultaneous Use of Alternative Qualitative & Quantitative Methods in "Analytical Shoot-Outs" * Multiple alculations from Similar Data, Information & Knowledge Structures * Full Use of Methodological Spectrum * heck on Methodological Bias * Resource & onstraints Sensitive 3f1

8 \ I / ) ;:t r3l B; I zld- Z2

9 Multimedia * "The Interface is the System" * Form Over/& ontent? * Style Over/& Substance? * Feeling Good Vs. Performing Well * Useful Integration of Sound, Graphics, Video, Text in Flexible Search Structures * Inspection of Data, Information, Knowledge, Hypotheses and Inferences Visually & Interactively * Speed, Efficiency & ommunication: Bridging the Gap Among ollection, Analysis & Production * "Seeing" Threats, "Feeling" Opportunities: reative, Flexible Inspection of Multi-Form Data, Information & Knowledge... 38g

10 rs'. T-.] '.,,_ --. -t 4Z~lhW YhEYW~U i#4^.x - <n Lu rm Uw (1 I</ I k,agiftlm o i I o a3 E 8 * c), > O a' / / 9 z F 1,- a IiT ;VXIXP; = L. V t _ L- <n (r > o Z S ) c h 3 =91;PI~P~X G, _: «)2 (/., 1; 3E Z < N o >O s _ c I I I-, -. 4,7 ) - - o) c - - I- D cm) O D cm I a, o -- _Hr RE E5 ES gz Z ;W c wwassnp, I X to ac. ap 2cO. giac, O c.o.. N S E IZ 4b ( 4 Q I*- l- ^1 z S b Jo L ~. L~~N \. X aw a)~ b D 39 - O.. -»a 8-5 *- ) c2s s. a 5 u oc 'Q6 *»»» *z^t *> bew A,d w&> rz I 1 / z'., I Z -) Of \.1 -. < OO6 Ur) -. f <1 :_t g O ~ E 3 I If ys -' c I E O 25 I (3 Ik- cn. 3 -J 6. "~L_ 3qo

11 Investment Strategies * Redress the Investment Balance Between ollection & Analysis * From Baroque to Ikea * onscious Recruiting of IT & Methodologically Literate * Joint Ventures with Public ollection & Reporting Organizations * Try a Little, Buy a Little Approach to T&E * "OSIA" (Open Source Intelligence Agency) * Exploitation of Information Technology Via ommercial-off-the-shelf (OTS) Applications Software * Life as a Nike ommercial... 3fI

12 So What Do We Do? * Exploit the Actual apabilities of Information Technology *- Leapfrog the Stuff that Never Worked, Like Abductive/ Inductive Knowledge-Based Systems, Light Pens & Track Balls o- Run Like Hell from the Fads, Like Biological Emulators for Ultra-Real Time Intelligence Analysis & Production, omputer-supported ooperative Work & Biocybernetic Estimators * Launch an Intelligence Analysis & Production Requirements Analysis to Baseline What We Need & What is Technologically Feasible * Develop Metrics to Monitor & Measure Impact * Stop Hiring "Artists" & Go With More Hackers & yberpunks * Model, Invest in & Influence the Open Source World... 3qz

13 FIRST INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM: NATIONAL SEURITY & NATIONAL OMPETITIVENESS: OPEN SOURE SOLUTIONS Proceedings, Volume II - Link Page Previous Information Technology Support for Open Source Intelligence Analysis & Production Next Privatization of Intelligence & Development of Human Intelligence Return to Electronic Index Page