Cell Spotting: Studying the Role of Cellular Networks in the Internet. John Rula. Fabián E. Bustamante Moritz Steiner 2017 AKAMAI FASTER FORWARD TM

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1 Cell Spotting: Studying the Role of Cellular Networks in the Internet * John Rula * Fabián E. Bustamante Moritz Steiner * 1

2 Understanding cellular growth is critical

3 Growing dominance of mobile On subscriptions >7.3 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide And content consumption 3.1hr/day of digital media (1.4x as on desktops/laptops)* 50% of web traffic** 91% of daily Facebook usage * emarketer 4/17 ** Cisco VNI 2016

4 Part of the growth is cellular 4.2x more mobile broadband subscribers Mobile traffic growing at 45% annually A path to connect the other half of the world But how much? And where?

5 Mobile Cellular Mobile Access DEVICE Easy to measure: Useragent, device properties Not a good proxy: >50% of mobile traffic is over WiFi Cellular Access TECHNOLOGY Fastest growing tech Hard to measure

6 Understanding cellular growth Can t tell which traffic is cellular Don t know how cell networks are organized Challenges? Can t see global usage trends

7 Our work Approach to label cell networks and traffic Validation with ground truth data Detailed look at global cellular usage

8 Motivation Approach Validation Findings

9 Summary of our approach Identify cellular IP addresses Detect network interface from browser API Beacon data for cell networks identification Requests to a large CDN as a proxy for traffic

RTT and T-put Limitation: Only knows client s network interface

10 Network interface from browser Network Information API Detect client s network connectivity Notify of connection changes Measure recent RTT and T-put Limitation: Only knows client s network interface Connection Type: WiFi Connection Type: Cell Connection Type: WiFi Hotspot

11 Beacon data for cell identification From CDN Real User Monitoring (RUM) system Network Information API available in 15% of beacons 100s of millions of beacons per month Calculate Cellular Ratio for each /24 and /48 CIDR CR = (Cellular Hits) / (Cellular Hits + WiFi Hits) Label subnets with Ratios > 0.5 as CELLULAR

12 Platform data for cell demand Calculate demand across entire CDN platform Demand Unit (DU): relative measure of all CDN HTTP requests (out of 100,000)

13 Motivation Approach Validation Findings

Diverse operators for validation Operator Precision Recall F1 European [Mixed] 0.99 0.82 0.

14 Diverse operators for validation Operator Precision Recall F1 European [Mixed] US [Dedicated] Middle Eastern [Mixed] High precision but potential for false-negatives

15 Motivation Approach Validation Findings

16 Global cellular IP space Worldwide Cellular Subnets: Number of /24 350,687 Number of /48 23,230 Active IPv4 7.3% Active IPv6 1.2%

17 Global cellular IP space Continent # /24 # /48 % Active IPv4 % Active IPv6 Africa 79, % 2% Asia 86,618 4, % 0.5% Europe 65,442 2, % 0.3% North America 27,595 16, % 9.9% Oceania 4, % 0.07% South America 87, % 0.9% Spread across 668 Cellular ASes.

18 Global cellular IP space Continent # /24 # /48 % Active IPv4 % Active IPv6 Africa 79, Asia 86,618 4, % of all IPv6 demand is cellular Europe 65,442 2, North America 27,595 16, Oceania 4, South America 87,

19 Global cellular demand 16.2% from cellular addresses end % 3% 4% 83.80% Cellular 16.20% Fixed Line 39% 35% 16% Oceania Africa South America Europe North America Asia

20 Cell fraction of demand by continent From ~26% (Asia, Africa) to 12% in Europe Asia North America Europe South America Percentage of continent demand that is cellular: Africa Oceania 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

21 And by country 1RUm. CeOOuODU DemDnd x 100, United States India Indonesia Ghana CeOOuODU DemDnd RDtiR 1A E8 6A AF A6 2C

Top networks dominate demand CellulDr DemDnd (%) 10-1 10-2 10-3 10-4

22 Top networks dominate demand CellulDr DemDnd (%) Top 10 make up 38% of cellular demand DnNed A61 #

23 Key networks are mixed Serve both cellular and fixed-line access networks Cellular ASNs Cellular Demand Majority of networks are mixed A61 Count DemDnd Majority of demand comes from dedicated ixed DedicDted 0 0ixed DedicDted

24 Mixed networks vary greatly Cellular dominates some networks demand Less so in other networks 10 3 CellulDU )ixed DemDnd (DU) DnNed A61s Need prefix-level granularity for analysis

25 Demand concentrated in few subnets Top 3 account for 53% of cellular demand DemDnd Top 30 account for 73% of cellular demand Dnked /24 Subnet Top 2,600 account for 73% of fixed demand CellulDr Fixed Similar patterns across all ASes

26 Most cellular clients share DNS resolvers Most DNS resolvers shared with fixed line CDF % Mixed ~20% Cellular 20% Fixed line 0.2 ResRlver CellulDr FrDFtiRn CellulDr FrDFtiRn

27 Public resolver usage higher outside US Algeria Hong Kong Nigeria South Africa India U.S. Brazil Vietnam

28 Looking at the role of cellular This work Accurate identification of cellular IP address space Measure IP-level activity of cellular access Cellular usage and behavior across different axes Much to be done 19.7% cell demand increase last 8 months Temporal dynamics of assignment Sampling,

29 Questions?

Cellular Case Study: Reliance Jio Tech Capability, Deployment, Economics Sept. 2016 launched India-wide 4G LTE FREE, Unlimited Data for 6 months!

30 Cellular Case Study: Reliance Jio Tech Capability, Deployment, Economics Sept launched India-wide 4G LTE FREE, Unlimited Data for 6 months! % of India s traffic by June 2017 Pre-promotion, June 2016: Reliance carried 1.2% of India s traffic Percent Country Traffic (%)

2% is Fixed Line 4 out of top 5 ISPs are majority cellular " Top 10 Indonesian

31 Country Comparison: France & Indonesia 13.7% of Traffic is Cellular 86.3% is Fixed Line! Top 10 French ISPs 66.8% of Traffic is Cellular 33.2% is Fixed Line 4 out of top 5 ISPs are majority cellular " Top 10 Indonesian ISPs Demand (DU) Demand (DU) ASN ASN Cellular Traffic Fixed Line Traffic Cellular Traffic Fixed Line Traffic

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