Capturing the 5G/IoT industry business potential

Transcription

1 Capturing the 5G/IoT industry business potential June 2018 Jaime Trapero Head of Customer Marketing Iberia & Morocco, Ericsson

2 Agenda 1. New mobility models require 5G 2. 5G value capture journey overview 3. Use case deep dive Ericsson AB 2018 Page 2

3 Without 5G & AI fully autonomous vehicles would be impossible 5G wireless will make autonomous cars smarter VentureBeat AI critical to the future of autonomous vehicles Forbes Ericsson AB 2018 Page 3 Source: Intel, Forbes, VentureBeat

4 Would you really trust an autonomous car? Ericsson AB 2018 Page 4 Source: Clippings

5 Anatomy of an autonomous vehicle s accident w/o 5G Ericsson AB 2018 Page 5 Source: Clippings

6 Ericsson AB 2018 Page 6

7 Building trustworthy public transportation services enabled by AI and 5G Ericsson AB 2018 Page 7

8 CHronos C-ITS Test & Validation for future transportation systems Establish an open and controlled test arena for validation of Connected Driving (C-ITS) Increase knowledge on use cases and business drivers Efficient, repeatable, safe and secure tests Connected Driving impact on 5G requirements Vehicle product demands Regulations and certifications Partners: Ericsson AB 2018 Page 8 Photo: AstaZero

9 CMA Test site for future automated and shared mobility systems Exploring the use of 5G networks for intelligent transport systems Investigating as-a-service offerings for network operators and automotive OEMs Reduced vehicle fleet operations cost Better service awareness and reduced travel time for passengers Usage of cellular networks in new markets Partners: Ericsson AB 2018 Page 9 Photo: Scania

10 Ericsson AB 2018 Page 10

11 Agenda 1. New mobility models require 5G 2. 5G value capture journey overview 3. Use case deep dive Ericsson AB 2018 Page 11

12 With industry digitalization, new fast growing revenue pools emerges USDbn CAGR ,5% Operator to seize emerging revenue potential ,6% Challenge: current operator service revenues Opportunity: digitalization revenues* * Digitalization revenues for ICT players from 10 key industries Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little Ericsson AB 2018 Page 12

13 Operators share of the 5G value created Total 5G enabled revenue (USDbn, 2026) 1307 bn Connectivity and Infrastructure Provisioning Service Enablement Application & service provisioning Total 5G enabled revenue per value chain step Operator addressable share 230 bn 646 bn 432 bn 89% 52% 18% Network developer Service enabler Service creator bn bn bn 337 bn 337 bn 79 bn bn bn bn Sum of addressable 5G revenue per operator role Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little Note: The total addressable market for operator role Service creator is the total operator addressable market Ericsson AB 2018 Page 13

14 5G revenue potential for operators addressing industry digitalization USDbn, G addressable B2B2X * Adding an addressable Financial services 5% Automotive 8% Retail 5% Agriculture 1% Manufacturing 18% Current service revenues % revenue growth potential Media and entertainment 10% Public transport 12% Healthcare 12% 619 USDbn Public safety 13% Energy and utilities 16% 2026 Service enabler and service creator revenue potential Network developer revenue potential *Total addressable as Service creator operator role Ericsson AB 2018 Page 14

15 Why use case clusters? Benefits of a cluster approach Agro Field monitoring & mapping Livestock routing & monitoring Auto Autonomou s driving Connected services Safety & On-field traffic applications efficiency Ericsson AB 2018 Page 15 Energy & Financial Utilities Services Health Mfg. Media & Entmt. Lending, Smart Hospital payments & energy mgt. apps invest. Smart grid Medical data mgt. Patient apps Field Devices Industrial control & auto. Planning & design Adv. Entmt. Public Safety Cyber security Urban & infra. security Public Transpor t Monitoring, com. & analytics Passenger inf. Smart ticketing Retail Customer experience Operational efficiency Promotion solution Other Other Other Other Other Other Other Other Other 8,6 47,7 100,8 30,3 75,7 113,5 62,2 77,5 74,0 28,7 Addressable market for telcos (2026, USDbn) From industries to clusters From what to how Allocate investments and resources across a larger revenue pool Prioritize opportunities depending on investment Increase scalability across industries

16 The analysis of 5G use case clusters offers a complementary vision Source: Ericsson Addressable market for telcos (2026, USDbn) Agro Auto Energy & Utilities Financial Services Health Mfg. Media & Entmt. Public Safety Public Transport Real-time Automation 100,8 Enhanced video 96,2 Other 77,4 Monitoring & tracking 72,6 Connected vehicle 68,8 Hazard & mnt. sensing 57,0 Smart Surveillance 46,7 Autonomous Robotics 40,5 Remote Ops 35,4 AR/VR 23,6 Retail TOTA L Ericsson AB 2018 Page ,0

17 Significant potential for operators to expand into the service enablement layer USDbn, 2026 Connectivity and infrastructure provisioning Service enablement Application and service provisioning Total addressable by service creator Real-time Automation Enhanced video services Monitoring and tracking Connected vehicle Hazard and maintenance sensing Smart Surveillance Autonomous Robotics Remote operations Augmented reality Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Note: 5G operator addressable revenues, Service creator Ericsson AB 2018 Page 17

18 Connected vehicles IoT/5G Case study: Connected cars Industry challenges and benefits Journey towards 5G (Selected examples) Global market potential 2026 Challenges: Governments seek methods to Value reduce road accidents and injuries 1.25 m people die globally each year as a result of road traffic crashes Car owners desire better in-car experience, such as vehicle maintenance alerts, assisted driving $14-16 bn features, Wi-Fi, automated roadside assistance and theft protection Benefits to end customers Car owners reduction in car crashes on country 50% level by real-time info and statistics 12% Average reduction on CO2 emissions Insurance companies Increased revenue and customer royalty by UBI 1 Example Telia partnered Springworks and other partners (e.g. Folksam, Bilia) and launched Telia Sense for car owners. The App provides features such as eco-driving feedback, UBI1, smart parking, proactive car maintenance and remote alarm features etc. Ericsson AB 2018 Page 18 Technology evolution Offering evolution Connected driving Real time driver statistics Predictive car maintenance Usage based insurance Remote monitoring/ alarm Eco driving feedback Current Technical requirement Low data rate requirement (video streaming in car approach only 1 Gbps) Medium high requirement on Mobility: speed can easily go up to 100 km/h $ Smart driving Increasing importance in reliability & availability and Latency due to the more critical application such as semi-auto pilot driving On the road to 5G Technical requirement Increasing importance in reliability & availability and latency due to the more critical application such as semi-auto pilot driving Fully auto pilot experience Situational awareness based on beyond visual/ perimeter analysis Immersive AR environment Fully auto-pilot experience Virtual presence services 5G experience Technical requirement Reliability, Security and latency is critical for fully auto-pilot and see-through application Connection density is important in a future scenario with many connected cars/infra in the traffic jams ~20% $69 bn Use case: Connected cars Cluster: Connected vehicles Source: WHO, Telia Company, Towers Watson, IHS, Morgan Stanley, Statista, Folksam, Springworks, Ericsson and Arthur D Little Note: 1)UBI refers to usage based insurance

19 Connected vehicles IoT/5G Case study: Connected urban Industry challenges and benefits Journey towards 5G (Selected example) Global market potential 2026 Challenges: Municipality vs gov t vs vehicle Value owners: Traffic management is generally in the hands of Connected urban Smart interoperable urban Advanced/autonomous municipalities while transport itself is not. Uncertainty is created w.r.t. who transport transport urban transport should own, build and pay for CUT) Real-time traffic & Traffic flow optimization Autonomous solutions parking information Semi-auto vehicle routing transport system $15-20 bn Interoperability challenges: I2X communication with real-time traffic info. Shared vehicle Complexity of interconnected devices Coordinated multiagency response to communication VR aided route V2V to platform ownership and use (vehicle, traffic lights, road sensors) requires standards to ensure transport incidents V2X connectivity planning and In-vehicle signage and transportation interoperability between them speed limits VR aided emergency services access Benefits to utility companies 20% 40% Emission reductions, e.g. 20% in Pittsburgh, US, through the deployment of smart traffic lights Reduction in accidents e.g. 40% reduction in Netherlands since using smart motorways Cut solutions allow to mitigate traffic congestion, saving commuters fuel and time Example AT&T provides several intelligent traffic management systems for both authority and commuters. The end-to-end solution includes buss arrival panels, itu 1, TVA2, Mobile traffic enforcement camera, intelligent traffic light systems etc. Ericsson AB 2018 Page 19 Technology evolution Offering evolution Current Technical requirement Low battery consumption is important for noncabling cases (e.g. parking sensors) High connection density in a traffic jam situation (100 k/ km 2 ) $ On the road to 5G Technical requirement When V2V and V2X is involved Mobility becomes important easily go up to 100 km/ hour Position accuracy is important (1m accuracy) 5G experience Technical requirement Cyber security is important in autonomous system human life critical Reliability and latency is important for the real-time and fully autonomous case 25-30% $69 bn Use case: Connected urban transport Cluster: Connected vehicles Source: AT&T, Bloomberg, OICA, United Nations, INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard, Ericsson and Arthur D Little Note: 1)iTU refers to Intelligent Telemetry unit; 2) TVA refers to traffic video analytics systems

20 Cluster description Connected vehicles Opportunity Cluster description Opportunity to provide continuous nationwide connectivity and related services to connected vehicles Public safety Healthcare Public transport Automotive Examples of technical requirements Throughput: Throughput will be driven by entertainment Gigabit speed Latency CVs will have to have provide low latency the entertainment services <100ms Use case evolution and operator roles (Selected examples) Value Monetization models Offering evolution Connected driving Real-time driver statistics Personalized insurance services on driving behaviour Connectivity within the vehicle Assisted driving Traffic jam warnings $ Smart driving Vehicle to vehicle communication systems Connected ambulance High-speed internet access Semi-auto pilot driving Vulnerable road user (VRU) discovery Operator roles Customer Monetization Network developer Services enabler Service creator End-customers 3rd party app providers End-customers Advanced performance Auto pilot driving Advanced infotainment (e.g. 4K streaming) Ancillary services such as virtual presence Current On the road to 5G 5G experience As-a-service-fee, subscription based Project-based, As-a-service, revenue share Subscription based, benefitbased 14% Potential market in % 24% $69 bn 24% Automotive Cluster growth rate Public transport Public safety Other USD bn Connectivity and infrastructure value Service enablement and service provisioning X Total value addressable as Service creator operator role Ericsson AB 2018 Page 20 Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little

21 Agenda 1. New mobility models require 5G 2. 5G value capture journey overview 3. Use case deep dive Ericsson AB 2018 Page 21

22 Use case deep dive scope Clusters 1. Connected vehicles 2. Augmented reality 3. Real time automation 4. Hazard and maintenance sensing 5. Enhanced video services 6. Smart surveillance 7. Remote operations 8. Autonomous robots Case studies 1. Connected cars 2. Connected venues 3. Smart grid 4. Condition based maintenance 5. Fleet management solutions 6. Connected urban transportation 7. Commercial drone solutions 8. Remote patient monitoring 9. Monitoring and tracking Ericsson AB 2018 Page 22

23 Use case deep dive structure of the analysis Ericsson AB 2018 Page 23

24 Use case deep dive scope Clusters 1. Connected vehicles 2. Augmented reality 3. Real time automation 4. Hazard and maintenance sensing 5. Enhanced video services 6. Smart surveillance 7. Remote operations 8. Autonomous robots Case studies 1. Connected cars 2. Connected venues 3. Smart grid 4. Condition based maintenance 5. Fleet management solutions 6. Connected urban transportation 7. Commercial drone solutions 8. Remote patient monitoring 9. Monitoring and tracking Ericsson AB 2018 Page 24

25 Connected vehicles Cluster description Description Selected examples Description of cluster Example use cases Realization challenge Connected Vehicles cluster includes applications to provide moving vehicles with a continuous, nationwide connection The cluster should allow operators to enhance their products without investing extensively in new deployment or go-tomarket capabilities Connected ambulance High-speed internet on trains Vehicle to vehicle networking systems Emergency vehicle notification system Vulnerable Road User (VRU) discovery Public safety Healthcare Public transport Automotive Key challenge for connected vehicles cluster is wide area deployment of high speed mobile broadband New sales capabilities to deal with several customers e.g. OEMs, end-customers, public transport companies, etc. Low High Low High Deployment challenge Go-to-market challenge Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Ericsson AB 2018 Page 25

26 Connected vehicles Drivers and roadblocks Drivers and roadblocks 1. Growing car sharing market The market is estimated to grow 34.8% CAGR over (US $16.5bn by 2024) 2. Demand car connectivity End-consumers have shown a high demand for connective features, especially car safety enhancing features and data tracking Drivers 3. Safety laws Selected examples From April 2018 all new cars in Europe must be equipped with ecall additional safety requirements are to be expected 4. High-tech entrants High-tech companies are disrupting the traditional automotive industry, e.g. Tesla cars, Google s autonomous cars, and AT&T partnered with GM 1. Automotive life cycles New connectivity features have a shorter lifecycle than typical automotive life cycles Roadblocks 2. New monetization models Consumers are used to a one-off payment for a car while connected cars and features will likely be based on monthly or yearly subscriptions Ericsson AB 2018 Page 26 Source: Global Market Insights, European Commission, GfK Connected Car study, AT&T, Ericsson and Arthur D Little

27 Connected vehicles Customer benefits Customer benefits Selected examples Customer experience enhancement Innovation & development Car owners Enhanced driver experience through enhanced infotainment Connected cars will increase safety for drivers through applications such as vulnerable road users applications Insurance firms Increased revenue for ecosystem players by increasing customer base and through new offerings Insurance firms can provide tailored solutions to their customers based on data driven approaches Hospitals Connected ambulances would be able to share patient s vitals and images/ video streams on the go to hospital staff Connected emergency vehicles will be able to reduce time to incident by coordination with infrastructure and other vehicles Operational efficiency Source: TeliaCompany, The Progressive of Insurance Companies Digital health,, Ericsson and Arthur D Little Ericsson AB 2018 Page 27

28 Connected vehicles Globally 5G addressable value for operators USD bn What ecosystem role Addressable value, Addressable value per industry, 2026 ~20-35% 23% Other 9 Automotive Ericsson AB 2018 Page % XX% 30 CAGR Connectivity and infrastructure value Indicative total market growth Public safety 11 Public transport 17 Service enablement and service provisioning value X Total addressable as Service creator operator role 69 USD bn Source: Source: Ericsson and Arthur D. Little Note: 1) Assumed the service creator role

29 Connected vehicles Go-to-market challenges and requirements GTM challenges Illustrative Industry Go-to-market challenges Go-to-market challenges Automotive Public transport Public safety Operators alliances already provide connectivity as a service to OEMs, the speed and quality of connectivity is expected to be increased in the future. Operators would have to partner with solution providers (e.g. infotainment) in order to move up from connectivity to other value adding services In developed countries operators would have to move up from connectivity to value added services based on partnerships In developing countries, operators still have the opportunity to provide basic connectivity as well as end-services in public transportation by partnering with governments and regulators Operators would have to coordinate between different government entities in order to obtain public sector contracts for public safety services. Additional regulatory certification would also be required in safety, etc. Partnership management Go-to-market replicability Regulatory environment Sales channels Customer engagement Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Ericsson AB 2018 Page 29

30 Connected vehicles Monetization models Monetization models Operator role Operators' primary customers Projectbased As-a-service fee 1 Revenue share Licensing cost Subscriptionbased Benefitbased Other 1. Network developer Providing connectivity End customers 2. Service enabler Providing connectivity and service platform 3rd party app providers 3. Service creator Providing connectivity, a platform and applications & services End customers Currently deployed model 5G experience model Key 5G experience model Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Note: 1) Transaction based (volume/value) Ericsson AB 2018 Page 30

31 Connected vehicles Cluster evolution Cluster evolution Selected examples Connected driving Smart driving Advanced performance 5G Requirements Real-time driver statistics Personalized insurance services on driving behavior Connectivity within the vehicle Assisted driving Traffic jam warnings Vehicle to vehicle communication systems Connected ambulance High-speed internet access Semi-auto pilot driving Vulnerable road user (VRU) discovery See-through sensing Auto pilot driving Advanced infotainment (e.g. 4K streaming) Ancillary services such as virtual presence Current On the road to 5G 5G experience Battery life Ericsson AB 2018 Page 31 Latency Mobility Availability Reliability Connectivity density Throughput Position accuracy Security Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little

32 Connected vehicles Technical KPI s Local area & mission critical % Reliability & Availability 5G NW reg. Wide area & mass adoption % Reliability & Availability Position accuracy <1m Securit y Position accuracy <1m Securit y Data rate 20Gbps 10 Years Battery life Data rate 20Gbps 10 Years Battery life Connection density 10K-1m devices/km 2 1ms Latency Connection density 10K-1m devices/km 2 1ms Latency Ericsson AB 2018 Page 32 Public safety 500km/h Mobility Addressable market Public transport Curren t 5G Experience Automotive 500km/h Mobility Addressable market Public transport Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little

33 Connected vehicles Example of capability requirements Technical enabler Local area & mission critical Dynamic orchestration Revenue management Exposure Service enablement Automation Service provisioning Security management Analytics Applications Device management Self provisioning Cloud optimized network apps Access & Mobility management Control / User plane split Session management Policy/ QoS Network security Communication services User & data management Devices / Local NW Access sites Distributed sites Application cloud National sites Global sites Incremental Legend Network developer Service enabler Service creator Low band Public Mid band On premise High band Private Mobile Fixed Indoor Spot coverage Management & Monetization Network slices Access, Mobility, Network applications Outdoor Wide area coverage Cloud infrastructure Transport Narrow band Unlicensed Wide band Licensed Throughput Latency NFV / SDN Distributed cloud Software defined infrastructure Ericsson AB 2018 Page 33 Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Non - exhaustive

34 Connected vehicles Example of capability requirements Technical enabler Wide area & mass adoption Dynamic orchestration Revenue management Exposure Service enablement Automation Service provisioning Security management Analytics Applications Device management Self provisioning Cloud optimized network apps Access & Mobility management Control / User plane split Session management Policy/ QoS Network security Communication services User & data management Devices / Local NW Access sites Distributed sites Application cloud National sites Global sites Incremental Legend Network developer Service enabler Service creator Low band Public Mid band On premise High band Private Mobile Fixed Indoor Spot coverage Management & Monetization Network slices Access, Mobility, Network applications Outdoor Wide area coverage Cloud infrastructure Transport Narrow band Unlicensed Wide band Licensed Throughput Latency NFV / SDN Distributed cloud Software defined infrastructure Ericsson AB 2018 Page 34 Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Non - exhaustive

35 Connected vehicles Globally 5G addressable value for operators USD bn Total 5G enabled revenue per smart value chain step Operator addressable share Connectivity and infrastructure provisioning Service enablement Application & service provisioning 24 bn 77 bn 41 bn 90% 57% 17% Cash flow profile Operator addressable market for role Network developer Operator addressable market for role Service enabler Operator addressable market for role Service creator 22 bn 22 bn 40 bn 22 bn 40 bn 7 bn bn bn bn Sum of addressable 5G revenue per operator role Source: Ericsson and Arthur D Little Ericsson AB 2018 Page 35

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