JORDAN TELECOMS, MOBILE, BROADBAND AND FORECASTS

Transcription

1 A BUDDECOMM REPORT JORDAN TELECOMS, MOBILE, BROADBAND AND FORECASTS 10th Edition Researcher: Paul Kwon Copyright 2012 Published in 4 th July 2012 Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd Tel Int: George Downes Drive Fax Int: BUCKETTY NSW pbc@budde.com.au AUSTRALIA

2 Disclaimer: The reader accepts all risks and responsibility for losses, damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from using this report or from reliance on any information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information and shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein. The materials in this report are for informational purposes only. Prior to making any investment decision, it is recommended that the reader consult directly with a qualified investment advisor. Forecasts: The following provides some background to our scenario forecasting methodology: This report includes what we term scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect market growth to occur. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within this band. The projections shown in the tables in this report are based on our own historical information, as well as on telecommunication sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities. Free Consultancy Service: Subscribers to our publications are entitled to use our Free-over-the-Phone Consultancy Service. You can use it for any question in relation to any of the information in this publication or to other related issues. We will advise you over the phone or provide you with the necessary contacts for your further information. Internet Website: Continuously updated information on the reports, described in this report, is available on our Website: Copyright: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd reports are limited publications containing valuable market information provided to a select group of customers in response to orders. Our customers acknowledge when ordering that Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd reports are for our customers internal use and not for general publication or disclosure to third parties. No part of this report may be given, lent, resold or disclosed to non-customers without written permission. Furthermore, no part may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise without the permission of the publisher. For information regarding permission, please write to: Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 5385 George Downes Drive, BUCKETTY NSW 2250, AUSTRALIA.

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter number: TABLE OF CONTENTS on page number: 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KEY STATISTICS Country overview TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKET Overview of Jordan s telecom market REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT Background Telecommunications Law Telecommunications Law Regulatory authority Telecom sector liberalisation in Jordan WiMAX licences 4.4 Privatisation Interconnect Carrier preselection Access FIXED-NETWORK OPERATORS IN JORDAN Jordan Telecom Group/JTG/Orange Jordan TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE National telecom network National Telecommunication Program International infrastructure BROADBAND ACCESS MARKET Overview Internet and broadband statistics 7.2 Broadband subscriber forecasts Scenario 1 higher growth Scenario 2 lower growth 7.3 ISP market Orange Internet Umniah/Batelco Jordan Cyberia TE Data 7.4 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) Fibre to the Home (FttH) Wireless (fixed) broadband WiFi WiMAX 8. DIGITAL ECONOMY/DIGITAL MEDIA Overview E-Commerce Gonabit MarkaVIP Maktoob Group Jabbar Internet Group

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Jeeran 8.3 E-education E-health E-government DIGITAL BROADCASTING Broadcasting market overview Jordan Media City (JMC) 9.2 Broadband TV (IPTV) Video-on-Demand (VoD) MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS Overview of Jordan s mobile market Mobile statistics 10.2 Regulatory issues Third GSM licence MVNOs G licences SIM card registration Mobile Termination Rates (MTR) 10.3 Mobile technologies GSM Integrated Digital Enhanced Network (iden) G / HSPA 10.4 Major mobile operators Jordan Mobile Telephone Services/Zain Jordan Orange XPress Telecommunications Umniah MVNOs 10.5 Mobile voice services Prepaid Satellite mobile 10.6 Mobile messaging Short Message Service (SMS) / Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS) 10.7 Mobile Broadband Mobile content and applications Mobile payments / Mobile banking 11. RELATED REPORTS...27 LIST OF TABLES Table number: on page number: Table 1 Country statistics Jordan Table 2 Telephone network statistics Table 3 Broadband user and subscriber statistics March Table 4 Mobile statistics March Table 5 National telecommunications authority...2 Table 6 GDP growth and inflation Table 7 Jordan Telecom Group profit and revenue by sector Table 8 Jordan Telecom Group divisional subscribers Table 9 Fixed lines in service and teledensity Table 10 Internet users and penetration rate Table 11 Internet subscribers and penetration rate Table 12 Internet subscribers by access method

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table 13 Forecast broadband subscribers higher market growth scenario 2012; 2015; Table 14 Forecast broadband subscribers lower market growth scenario 2012; 2015; Table 15 DSL subscribers Table 16 Wi-tribe Jordan ARPU Table 17 Mobile subscribers and penetration rate Table 18 Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change March Table 19 Mobile operators market share Table 20 Mobile Termination Rates Table 21 Zain Jordan ARPU, revenue, EBITDA and CAPEX Table 22 Zain Jordan Active Subscribers Table 23 Orange Jordan Subscribers & ARPU Table 24 Zain Jordan prepaid and postpaid subscribers For a full overview of our information on the Middle East, see at or other BuddeComm reports on the Middle Eastern market: Bahrain Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen For a full overview of our vertical and statistical market reports on the Middle East, see: Middle Eastern Broadband and Internet Market; Middle Eastern Digital Media Market; Middle Eastern Mobile Voice and Operators Market; Middle East - Telecoms, Internet, Broadband and Mobile Statistics (tables only).

6 1 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Jordan s Tech start up scene heats up One of the standouts in the region for its burgeoning technology start up industry, Jordan is also home to a modern liberalised telecoms market. Privatised incumbent Jordan Telecom Group is 51% owned by France Telecom and operates as Orange Jordan. Despite liberalisation Jordan Telecom Group maintains a stronghold on the fixed market. Competition is strongest in the broadband and mobile markets, based predominantly on infrastructure. The fixed broadband market is served by a number of technology platforms including ADSL, FttX, WiMAX and leased line. Jordan recently announced plans to revive its National Broadband Network after construction was halted due to lack of funds. WiMAX makes up a significant proportion of total fixed broadband subscriptions although its long term prospects are questionable given the growing popularity of mobile broadband. Jordan has emerged as a regional tech start up due to low start up costs and business-friendly government. Its reputation is increasingly attracting international capital eager to tap into the region s growing online market as most start ups target the region, particularly the wealthy Gulf Region countries. Three network operators compete in the mobile market, which made up predominantly of prepaid users. All three have launched HSPA+ networks, which will underpin future revenue growth through take up of mobile broadband subscriptions. Key telecom parameters 2010; 2012 Sector Subscribers to telecoms services (million): Broadband Fixed-line telephony Mobile phone (Source: BuddeComm) Companies covered in this report include: Jordan Telecom Group, Orange Internet, Cyberia, TE Data, Gonabit, MarkaVIP, Maktoob Group, Jabbar Internet Group, Jeeran, Xpress Telecommunications, Zain Jordan, FRiENDi, Virgin Mobile This report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Jordan s telecommunications market. The report analyses the mobile, Internet, broadband, digital TV and converging media sectors. Subjects include: Market and industry analyses, trends and developments; Facts, figures and statistics; Industry and regulatory issues; Infrastructure; Major players, revenues, subscribers, ARPU Internet, IPTV; Mobile voice and data markets; Broadband (FttH, DSL, cable TV, wireless); Convergence and digital media; Broadband subscriber forecasts to 2020;

7 8 5. FIXED-NETWORK OPERATORS IN JORDAN Since market liberalisation a number of alternative operators have received licences to launch services but they have yet to make any significant impact on the market, with JTG s share of the fixed market estimated at % in Complaints have been made about JTG s high wholesale rates. 5.1 JORDAN TELECOM GROUP/JTG/ORANGE JORDAN Jordan Telecom Group has been fully privatised. France Telecom owns a controlling % share, with the remaining shares owned by Arab investment companies, government fund managers and traded on the local stock exchange. (For more information on privatisation, see chapter 4.4). Fixed, mobile and Internet services are provided under the Orange brand. JTG had a monopoly to provide fixed-line telephony, voice and data services until end Its licence stipulates various regulations, including compliance with tariff policies, quality of service, numbering, Universal Service Obligation (USO), network interconnection and leased lines. JTG also owns a % share of Lightspeed Communications, which provides web-based services in Bahrain, including VoIP and Video-on-Demand (VoD). France Telecom is responsible for management and operations of fixed-line and mobile services provided within the scope of a renewable management contract between JTG and France Telecom. Table 7 Jordan Telecom Group profit and revenue by sector Total Fixed-line Data Mobile Net profit Year Revenue revenue revenue revenue Revenue (JOD million) (Source: BuddeComm based on JTG and industry data) Note: The group data communication segment consists of the international data services and ISP services provided by Orange Internet, Lightspeed (Bahrain), and the Internet content provider services provided by e-dimension. Table 8 Jordan Telecom Group divisional subscribers Fixed lines Mobile Orange Internet Year Subscribers (million) (Source: BuddeComm based on JTG and France Telecom data)

8 15 Jordanian Cable Services (JCS) launched commercial services in 2008, with services delivered over a network built using a combination of Passive Optical Network (PON) and Ethernet technology. Speeds of up to Mb/s are offered in Amman. During January the government announced plans to revive its National Broadband Network (NBN) project. Halted in due to lack of funds, the project was launched in 2003 to deploy fibre access networks to connect Jordan s educational, medical and government institutions, with approximately % of the network deployed. 7.6 WIRELESS (FIXED) BROADBAND WiFi launched the first national and international WiFi services in conjunction with Wanadoo in February WiMAX launched WiMAX services in November, with population coverage extending to % in January. Services are marketed under the brand name also announced an initiative to partner with Ministry of Education to provide several schools in Jordan with free WiMAX services. The long term future of WiMAX network is uncertain after the operator acquired radiofrequency spectrum in early 2012 and launched HSPA+ services., operating as Wi-tribe, a joint venture between also deployed a national WiMAX network and launched in June providing broadband Internet via USB modems. As of March stake in was %. Table 16 Wi-tribe Jordan ARPU 2012 Period ARPU (US$) 2010 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 (Source: BuddeComm based on Qtel data) Subscribers (thousand) s, a Kuwaiti company previously operating as l, launched services in March using a Motorola network. It is in partnership with offers both retail and wholesale services. network coverage extends to the cities of. Download speeds are available up to Mb/s. launched a WiBro network in April in partnership with covering % of the population of but to be extended city-wide. Services with speeds of up to Mb/s are offered. is registered as, was founded in 2006 by Jordanian investors. During September expanded its broadband product portfolio to include ADSL after acquiring broadband ISP Stream.

9 17 audited website in the Arab world, with million unique users. is headquartered in Amman, with a major base in Dubai and other offices in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. In August, the.com portal, with its news, financial information and social networking services, was bought by at a purchase price variously reported as being between US$nd US$ million. Services have been co-branded as A new homepage allowing for increased personalisation was launched during late. Since its acquisition of has continued to invest in Arabic content to cater to the growing demand for such content in the Middle East region. In April revealed it had partnered with utilising the carrier s branded network to improve content delivery throughout the Middle East region Jabbar Internet Group Other companies not acquired in the deal remained as. is comprised of electronic payment solutions provider cashu, daily deals site cobone.com, games website Tahadi, e-learning portal nibras, digital marketing solutions provider ikoo and auctions and marketplace Souq, the largest online retailer in the Arab world. was launched in and is the largest online retailer in the Arab world, with operations in Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. It offers a complete end-to-end service for buyers and sellers, offering marketing, buying, selling, electronic payment (cashu), and product pick up/delivery. A cash-on-delivery service is also offered. has expanded by acquiring smaller players such as, a Middle East online private shopping club. During May 2012 it was revealed approximately million people visited Souq every month. is game provider subsidiary. extended into online gaming in lateclaiming to be the first to bring Arabic-language online gaming to a mass Arab audience. specialises in multiplayer online role-playing games, and aims to bring the best of them to Arabic customers in the region. During October selected to provide Content Delivery Network (CDN) services. In December 2009 its first purchase after splitting from, buying which claims to be the largest online advertising network in the Arab world. as founded in as E- Marketing. is described as combining more than websites of leading publishers in the fields of sports, women, news, business, social media, automotive, and others. During November web traffic totalled million unique visitors and million page impressions. boasts the highest amount of viewers in the region, attracting approximately % of the region s web browsers and % of the regions female browsers. In July Jabbar launched its group buying portal,. The portal aims to emulate the success of rival portal Jeeran In addition to another smaller Middle Eastern social networking site is founded in by two students who launched from their homes initially. It grew gradually, opened its own offices and gained venture capital funding. Its early success was as a blogging site but later expanded to become an online site for free hosting, file storage and instant messaging. During it was reported hosted active websites and active blogs with over viewers per month.

10 24 would be exchanged for % of would own % of the shares of and its subsidiary This transaction was then cancelled in November. However, there is talk that it may be resuscitated and in January added free roaming network. was the first mobile operator in, with a monopoly of mobile services for the first four years of its -year licence period, paying % of its revenue to the government. Its licence was renewed for a further years in February. introduced roaming at local rates to its subscribers in in April as part of its which links most of the 23 countries in which operates. In added data roaming, allowing subscribers to access Internet, and services to voice and without roaming charges across its network. During July launched services using network. focus in is centred on expanding its product offering for the business market, focusing on its mobile money portfolio and promoting mobile broadband offerings. Table 21 Zain Jordan ARPU, revenue, EBITDA and CAPEX ARPU Revenue EBITDA CAPEX Year (US$) (US$ million) (3M) (Source: BuddeComm based on Zain data) Table 22 Zain Jordan Active Subscribers Active Year Subscribers (thousand) (Mar) (Source: BuddeComm based on company data) Orange launched its owned mobile subsidiary, then operating as a separate company, in November 1 During generated in revenue, a % annual change, and million in EBITDA, a % annual change. Table 23 Orange Jordan Subscribers & ARPU Year Subscribers (thousand) Monthly ARPU ( )