inemi: Interconnection PCB-Organic Section The IPC Connection ca. 1510

Transcription

1 inemi: Interconnection PCB-Organic Section The IPC Connection ca. 1510

2 IPC MISSION STATEMENT IPC is a global trade association dedicated to furthering the competitive excellence and financial success of its members worldwide, who are participants in the electronic interconnect industry. In pursuit of these objectives, IPC will devote resources to management improvement and technology enhancement programs, the creation of relevant standards, protection of the environment, and pertinent government relations. IPC encourages the active participation of all its members in these activities and commits to full cooperation with all related national and international organizations.

3 What Technology Roadmap-Capsule Overview A description of the current materials, processes, structures and a consensus of what is needed for interconnect structures and assembly methods in the future. Projections of the gaps and development needed in the above areas so investment is made to fill those gaps. An authoritative guide to technological trends. Visualization of innovative technology happenings, allowing the reader to better plan for, and make decisions about the future. A vision of where an industry wishes to go and what technologies are needed to get there. Who Engineer and Engineering Management, Plant Operations Equipment, capabilities, and skillsets needed Sourcing (elec. interconnect): What is likely to be widely available, and what is going to be difficult/expensive.

4 The Landscape: New Business Model Grows ODM/EMS is increasingly the new OEM. Percentage Production shifting to the right

5 Organic Interconnect inemi 2015 Chapter Technology Report

6 Global involvement Chair: John T. Jack Fisher, Interconnect Technology Analysis, Inc. Co-Chair: Henry Utsunomiya, Interconnection Technologies, Inc. Co-Chair: Dieter Bergman, IPC Co-Chair: Michael Weinhold, EIPC Co-Chair: Michele Hung, TPCA Co-Chair: P. Marc Carter, IPC

7 inemi Organic Substrates 2015 Rigid Substrates Flexible Substrates Optoelectronic Substrates Manufacturing Equipment (All Substrate Types) Processes (Rigid Substrates) Processes (Optoelectronic Substrates) Materials Rigid Substrates Flexible Substrates Metal Substrates

8 inemi Organic Substrates 2015 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attributes Critical Issues Embedded Components Package Conductor Routing Frequency Drivers Board Flatness Liquid Coolants and Heat Sink Requirements Optoelectronic Technologies Technology Needs Rigid Circuits Flexible Circuits Optical Circuits Research Needs

9 Definitions Emulator An imaginary typical product that is representative of real hardware manufactured in a market segment. RCG Revenue Center of Gravity SoA State of Art

10 Ongoing Trends: Organic Interconnect inemi 2015 Chapter Feature Size Continues to Decrease:Typical Smallest Dimension (um) surface mount land CURRENT 2015 LONG TERM 2020 EMULATORS Computer & Telecom RCG SoA RCG SoA Consumer Industrial&Auto (Portable) Industrial&Auto (Product Bd) Medical (Portable) Medical (Product Bd) Military (Portable) Military (Product Bd) Interposer or Module

11 Ongoing Trends: Organic Interconnect inemi 2015 Chapter Frequencies/Clock Speeds/Etc. Continue to Increase:Example:On Board Frequency (GHz) EMULATORS CURRENT 2015 LONG TERM 2020 RCG SoA RCG SoA Computer & Telecom 14 Ghz 25 Ghz 31Ghz >31Ghz Consumer 3 Ghz 14 Ghz 21 Ghz 25 Ghz Industrial & Auto (Portable) 1 Ghz 7.5 Ghz 8 Ghz >25 Ghz Industrial & Auto (Product Bd) 4 Ghz 17.5 Ghz 16 Ghz >25 Ghz Medical (Portable) 0.3 Ghz 0.75 Ghz 1 Ghz 3 Ghz Medical (Product Bd) 1.5 Ghz 3 Ghz 1.7 Ghz 3 Ghz Military (Portable) 19 Ghz >25 Ghz 23 Ghz >25 Ghz Military (Product Bd) 10 Ghz >25 Ghz 21 Ghz >>25 Ghz Interposer or Module 5 Ghz 17 Ghz 21 Ghz >25 Ghz

12 NEW- Aspect Ratio Mechanically Drilled Hole Via [Max Ratio] Provided by IPC Market Research 2014 EMULATORS CURRENT 2015 LONG TERM 2020 RCG SoA RCG SoA Computer & Telecom Consumer Industrial&Auto (Portable) Industrial&Auto (Product Bd) Medical (Portable) Medical (Product Bd) Military (Portable) Military (Product Bd) Interposer or Module Remarks One respondent only

13 NEW - Layer count by Market EMULATORS CURRENT 2015 LONG TERM 2020 RCG SoA RCG SoA Computer & Telecom 6* >24 Consumer 4 14 Industrial&Auto (Portable) 3 24 Industrial&Auto (Product Bd) 3 24 Medical (Portable) 4 20 Medical (Product Bd) 6 14 Military (Portable) 3 7 Military (Product Bd) 10 >24 Interposer or Module 4 10

14 Highlights: Organic Interconnect inemi 2015 Chapter - Expanded Technical Emphasis on: Embedded Technology: Both for electrical performance AND protection from environment. Increased Use of Placed over Formed Components, enabled by smaller components, placement capability Reliability, especially PREDICTIVE reliability based on actual product application expectations Printed Electronics as enabler & selective cost reductions. Hybrid (part conventional/part PE) option Flex and Rigid/Flex Growth Continues Higher than Rigid, but rate of growth may slow

15 Highlights: Organic Interconnect inemi 2015 Chapter - Challenges Discussed Default Material, Energy, Costs Do NOT Support User Future Cost Targets, China wages up Thermal (lead free assembly) and Environmental (eliminating some brominated fire retardant) Force Raw Material Costs Up High-volume production improves total processing cost per unit where applicable Low-volume flexibility remains elusive Increased Smart Automation (processing set-ups by lot ID) Customization of standardized interconnect during assembly process can ease low-volume woes

16 Emphasis #1: Embedded Technology Growth (Data from IPC market research

17 Embedded Technology Growth (in part) enabled by growing availability & use of smaller components CURRENT 2015 LONG TERM 2020 EMULATORS 0.4x0.2 SoA 0.4x0.2 SoA Computer & Telecom 25% 0.2x0.1 (25%) 59% 0.2x0.1 (12%) Consumer 35% 0.2x0.1 (20%) 56% 0.2x0.1 (24%) Industrial&Auto (Portable) 20% 0.2x0.1 (20%) 50% 0.2x0.1 (30%) Industrial&Auto (Product Bd) 19% 0.2x0.1 (14%) - 0.2x0.1 (20%) Medical (Portable) 25% 0.4x0.2 (25%) 75% 0.4x0.2 (75%) Medical (Product Bd) 0% 0.2x0.1 (50%) 100% 0.4x0.2 (100%) Military (Portable) 0% (?) 0.2x0.1 (29%) 50% 0.2x0.1 (50%) Military (Product Bd) 36% 0.2x0.1 (14%) 31% 0.2x0.1 (31%)

18 Emphasis #2: Printed Electronics becomes an option Where & When Possible, Waste Reduction and Process Step Reduction are Cost Drivers

19 Flexible Circuits The growing demand for portability fuels the demand for flexible printed boards in notebooks, etc. The growing demand for flex circuits in high frequency, controlled impedance circuits, particularly for telecom switching stations. Growth in displays is driving the use of flex connections from the display panel to the display driver. A substantially lower cost polyimide substrate or equivalent as a prerequisite to expand flex circuitry into the domain of lower cost rigid boards. A low cost, low Dk, process-friendly dielectric for high speed applications

20 One Trend that IS RAPIDLY BECOMING a Segment-Specific Problem Frequencies/Clock Speeds/Etc. Continue to Increase :Slide11,On Board Frequency (GHz) CURRENT 2015 LONG TERM 2020 EMULATORS RCG SoA RCG SoA Computer & Telecom 14 Ghz 25 GHZ 31gHZ >31gHZ Consumer 3 Ghz 14 Ghz 21 ghz 25 ghz Industrial&Auto (Portable) 1 Ghz 7.5 Ghz 8 Ghz >25 Ghz Predicting a Seven-Fold Increase in the Operating Frequency in Consumer Revenue Center of Gravity! This market segment, already under SEVERE pricing pressure, cannot afford the high cost materials traditionally used at those frequencies. New material solutions or options would appear to be required. Also drives: Low profile copper, more embedded capacitance, etc. inemi: Cost effective High Frequency Materials Study?

21 Information Flow: Shared-Source Info: IPC Roadmap & inemi Roadmap A: 2015 Roadmap, General/Overview B: Emerging and Related Technologies C:Design & Data Considerations D: Interconnections & Substrates E: Assembly Technology B5:Connector Trends From: Shared content with inemi B7: Printed Electronics From: Shared content with inemi Electronic Connector SME Team: Raw Data/Draft Printed Electronics SME Team: Raw Data/Draft inemi: Electronic Connectors (was chap:23 in 13) inemi: Large Area Flexibles (was chap: 24 in 13)

22 Conclusion IPC and inemi have long collaborated in Roadmap and related efforts, each according to their organizational strengths In 2015 release, this process continues with specific shared resources and information We believe the industry benefits, and urge expanded collaboration between IPC, inemi, and other organizations Contact: for more details inemi Roadmap Contact: Chuck Richardson