T.C./ PEG Review Portable & Consumer. Bob Pfahl, inemi for Susan Noe, 3M-Chair Productronica, 11/14/07

Transcription

1 T.C./ PEG Review Portable & Consumer Bob Pfahl, inemi for Susan Noe, 3M-Chair Productronica, 11/14/07

2 Product Emulator Descriptions Emulators Office Systems / Large Business Systems Telecom/Datacom Portable / Consumer Specialty Emulators Automotive Defense and Aerospace Medical Products Characteristics Products which seek maximum performance from a few thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit Products that serve the networking, datacom and telecom markets and cover a wide range of cost and performance targets High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery-powered products driven by size and weight reduction Defined by Operating Environment Products which must operate in an automotive environment Products which must operate in extreme environments Products which must operate within a high reliability environment 1

3 Market Driver-Technology Requirements Market Driver Maximum Digital Functionality Responsive to Changing Markets Technology Requirements Minaturization Lower Cost Increased Power Efficiency Modular Design 2

4 Portable & Consumer PEG Membership Susan Noe, 3M Company (chair) 3M Electronics Mobile Handheld Segment Manager Industry trends Materials and supply chain for assembly-level integration Seppo Pienimaa, Nokia Laboratory Director, Nokia Research Center Beijing Industry trends User interface, assembly level component selection David Carey, Portelligent President Consumer device teardowns, including PCBA/IC analysis Jan Vardaman, TechSearch International Inc. President Industry trends and supply chain Semiconductor packaging Tom Cipielewski, Jabil Circuit PCBA Looking for additional PEG member with board design and/or power management experience 3

5 Other Requests from Portable & Consumer PEG Still looking for addition to team (as Co-chair or as member) with expertise in chip selection and board design Also need input on the following sections of the Emulator Electrical Power Components/Package Input on any other section of Emulator spreadsheet is welcome! 4

6 State of Industry Segment Mobile Phone Volumes Dominate Korea Units (MM) Others Japan East Europe Latin America North America West Europe Asia Others (India) China Y/Y % Growth Mobile Phone Unit Growth % MM mobile phones vs. 15MM PDAs vs. 60MM MP3 players Source: Gartner Dataquest, Display Search, Business Week 5

7 Mobile Phone Demand by Region A sia Others (India) China West Eur ope Handset Type New Replacement Handset Units North A merica East Europe Japan Others Latin America Korea Year Based on data from Display Search Q1 05

8 Key Drivers: cost, performance, size, market Thinner devices with longer battery life Increased robustness in adverse environments Divergence between products for developed markets and emerging markets High functionality devices Aspirational devices Cradle to Cradle product lifecycle management Supply chain consolidation Integrated solutions vs. individual material components Vertical integration within supply chain Manufacturing close to consumption Expansion in India and Eastern Europe for final assembly 7

9 Increased Functionality Wireless in everything Cellular, VOIP, Bluetooth, etc. Continued convergence of functionality into cell phones (PDA, MP3, GPS, multiple cameras, digital video, gaming, home security, portable medical) More functionality drives consumer purchase of replacement devices More functionality drives service revenue for OEMs and wireless carriers itunes -> iphone Nokia Ovi including Nokia Music Store, and purchase of Navteq Flash memory for on-board and removable data storage/sharing Unique user interfaces Touch with tactile feedback Reconfigurable user interfaces (different functions in different modes) Gesture recognition 8

10 Technology Implications Higher frequency devices (e.g. video) and more transceivers Greater concerns about EMI Emergence of thermal issues New antennae designs Increased use of SiP Prismark reports increased shipments for mobile devices including front-end modules, transceivers, and radio modules New manufacturing alternatives: thinner, flexible Printed electronics New display technologies Lower power, lower resistance, thinner components Connectors LEDs Rigid flex (future printed electronics?) 9

11 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation Electronics: System-in-Package (functional system assembled into a single package) Examples: Logic + memory for mobile phone Digital baseband for mobile phone Transceiver for mobile phone Logic and SRAM or SDRAM for digital camcorders and cameras Different configurations: Stacked die packages Why SiPs - survey of Renesas customers Package-on-package (PoP) Package-in-package (PiP) Planar constructions Drive advanced packaging technologies: Stacked die Stacked packages Pre-packaged die such as CSP Wafer level package Bare die (wire bond or flip chip) 10

12 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation Electronics cont.: RF Subsystems SiP to provide entire wireless functions Wifi, Bluetooth, WiMax > 5 (8) transceivers per device Move to 1 Gbps to enable movie downloads More built-in test capability Embedded Passives for miniaturization Integrated at silicon level On top of silicon Stacked components/interposers Integration into substrates Interconnect: Galvanic, Nanograss welding, Capacitive coupling, Digital printing Interconnect for increasingly modularized components Interconnect for IC Packages that are shielded at the IC level Optical interconnect Shielding (EMI) Shielding integrated into package Memory < 1 hard drives are not gaining market acceptance, while flash memory use is increasing 11

13 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation Display, Camera and Optics: Display Technologies OLED (high contrast, fast response, thin, wide viewing angle) windowless displays (eliminating air interfaces to improve viewability while maintaining durability) plastic based displays (difficult to do with OLED due to oxygen effects) Incorporation of input capability (such as touch sensors with intuitive feedback) Microdisplays in head-mounted formats Low-cost displays and low-cost driver chipsets for handsets with average selling price <$30 Power management: Thermal management for small devices New ways to control amount of heat generated Ways to make productive use of heat that is generated Energy source technologies Lithium ion chemistries Super capacitors Solar Cells Fuel Cells 12

14 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation Mechanics & Electro mechanics: Wearable devices Consistent with trend towards miniaturization Could become semi-implanted. Portable & Consumer companies lack experience here, but medical companies are moving towards integrated tracking and remote medical care Sensors Extensive use of sensors for user and environmental interface Microphones, including thin silicon microphones GPS, including dead reckoning electronic compass Multi-axis intertial sensors Immersion gaming environments User interface (e.g. gesture recognition) Implications for calibration methods at final assembly Robustness Need to pass 5 m drop without failure Replacement of brittle/fragile modules with compliant materials (i.e. replace glass with plastic) Float modules to protect them from shock More robust optical zoom liquid lenslets, diffractive optics 13

15 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation Environmental Impact Printable Electronics implies additive process (rather than subtractive) which can be more environmentally conscious. Enabled by nanotechnology-based materials Additive processes need to be compatible with non-flat surfaces (e.g. jettable materials) Is starting to be used in displays (color filters for LCD) Change to printable (jettable) electronics can be one biggest for low performance electronics (1 MHz user interface) applications (e.g. organic semiconductors) Estimated that CO emissions can be reduced by 10x Devices designed for disassembly and recycle/reuse 14

16 Prioritized Technology Requirements and Trends: Research, Development, Implementation Cost 6-8% per quarter reductions requested of suppliers Y/Y handset average selling price decrease of 5% Market leaders operating at 10% to 18% margins Convergence Bio/Medical devices with uplink capability in handset format Wireless medical / home monitoring systems Digital Bio / Medical as next big Electronics Market driver Leveraging Portable & Consumer infrastructure (wireless handsets ) 15

17 Summary Comments System in Package is providing integration flexibility of multi technologies, lower R&D and NRE cost and faster time to market. Fast product creation through modular architecture (minimized I/O count & common bus) and compatible SiP core electronics modules. Mixed signal modules for wireless and complementary wireless radios. Multi Chip Modules and vertical packages for digital and memory electronics. Product lifecycles are short (15 months and decreasing), but it still takes ~ 10 years to bring major new technologies to market. Start now for needs of

18 contacts: Chuck Richardson Bob Pfahl 17