VIDEO ON THE INTERNET. What are the key questions?

Transcription

1 Jeffrey Hart Professor Indiana University November 2, 2007 The Content Question VIDEO ON THE INTERNET What are the key questions? Will Internet video content be different from non Internet video content? Who will be producing and consuming this content? What will be the relative importance of usergenerated content? Will Internet video contribute to free speech and democracy? 1

2 Telephone and Cable Companies Will Build the US Broadband Infrastructure Telecom Act of 1996 FCC decisions to permit telcos to buy cable networks and cable operators to compete in telephone markets Failure of the Video Franchise Act of 2006 Move by state tt legislatures l to grant video franchises to both cable and telephone companies Verizon FiOS vs. AT&T U Verse FiOS U Verse architecture FTTH FTTN latest stats on 717, ,000 customer base download 10 mps 6 mps speeds Both are capable of moderately high quality video content delivery. Both are betting that digital TV service revenues will grow faster than telephone services in the next 5-10 years. 2

3 The International Broadband Rollout (FTTH Rankings) Production Values and Potential Audience Size Small audience Large audience Lo value Videos of my dog on YouTube LonelyGirl15 Chris Crocker Hi value Sanctuary; other HD content TV programs Movies 3

4 The MeTV Hypothesis Stages Delivery Audience Size Limited Terrestrial Large Broadcast Audiences Regulation Business Model d l Regulated Ad supported d Multi Channel Cable, Satellite Smaller Audiences Lightly regulated Subscriptions Me TV Internet and Niche Lightly Pay per view other digital Audiences regulated? or pay per conduits download Source: Eli M. Noam, The Stages of Television: From Multi Channel Television to Me TV, CITI Working Paper Series, 1995 Will Internet TV be like itunes and ipods (the Vint Cerf Hypothesis)? Will users download videos to TiVo like devices or portable video players? Will copyright holders of video content be increasingly vulnerable to the latest filesharing technologies? Should producers of content t reconsider their old business models in light of these possibilities? 4

5 The Long Tail Hypothesis Pareto Distribution (aka Power Law) fat tail means more Voices will be heard In MeTV the user becomes a video programmer; in the fat long tail case, the user may be the producer as well as the consumer. Digital Divide Hypotheses Access to the Internet is still different across racial and ethnic groups, urban and rural populations Broadband access is more unequal than dial up because of higher prices Type of usage varies considerably across SES levels: Low SES tends to use Internet for entertainment Hi SES uses Internet for news, information, etc. 5

6 Media Usage Statistics TV/Radio Newspapers Recorded Music Internet Source: Study by Veronis Suhler Stevenson. The big news is that Internet use is rapidly displacing recorded music and newspaper use; and hours per day media use is reaching a plateau. Pornography Industry Statistics, 2006 $97 billion in revenues worldwide $13.3 billion in US $2.84 billion US Internet pornography revenues 28,000 viewers per second 372 entries of adult search terms per second 244 million pornographic p web pg pages on US nodes Users tend to be higher income males 6

7 Visits to Adult Websites Ad Supported Internet Video Services (Spike purchased ifilm) (a survivor) (created by the Skype guys) (tekky shows) (more tekky shows) (Irish hi quality vids) (live TV from abroad) (ditto) 7

8 Joost Examples of User Generated Video Sites (German platform) (combines licensed and user generated) (social news site, Al Gore) 8

9 Conclusions Freedom of speech enhancing digital video is prospering on both ad supported and user generated sites Broadband rollout is helping to make this a viable channel of expression Continued market dominance of mainstream TV and film content t likelyl Net neutrality guarantees are necessary to preserve recent advances 9