ET (mm/d), mean, SCEN-CTL

Transcription

1 a T M (K), man, SCEN-CTL T M (K), stv, SCEN-CTL SM (mm), man, SCEN-CTL SM (mm), stv, SCEN-CTL P (mm/), man, SCEN-CTL f P (mm/), stv, SCEN-CTL g ET (mm/), man, SCEN-CTL h ET (mm/), stv, SCEN-CTL Supplmntary Figur : Changs in man (lft) an intrannual variaility (stanar viation, right) of JJA tmpratur (a,), soil moistur (,), pripitation (,f), an vapotranspiration (g,h) twn th CTL an SCEN xprimnts (SCEN- CTL). Th unrlying snario is th SRES A an th prios orrspon to CTL (97-989) an SCEN (8-99).

2 a T M (K), man, SCEN-CTL T M (K), stv, SCEN-CTL SM (mm), man, SCEN-CTL SM (mm), stv, SCEN-CTL P (mm/), man, SCEN-CTL f P (mm/), stv, SCEN-CTL g ET (mm/), man, SCEN-CTL h ET (mm/), stv, SCEN-CTL Supplmntary Figur : As SF, ut for th man of th following GCMs: ECHAM, HADGEM, an GFDL (s Supplmntary Disussion ).

3 a T M (K), man, SCEN-CTL T M (K), stv, SCEN-CTL SM (mm), man, SCEN-CTL SM (mm), stv, SCEN-CTL P (mm/), man, SCEN-CTL f P (mm/), stv, SCEN-CTL g ET (mm/), man, SCEN-CTL h ET (mm/), stv, SCEN-CTL Supplmntary Figur : As SF an SF, ut for th man of all onsir GCMs (s Supplmntary Disussion ).

4 T M (K), stv a SCEN-CTL SCEN UNCOUPLED -CTL UNCOUPLED (SCEN-SCEN UNC )-(CTL-CTL UNC ) CTL-CTL UNCOUPLED SCEN-SCEN UNCOUPLED Supplmntary Figur 4: Analysis of fators ontriuting to hang in JJA tmpratur variaility [K] twn th CTL an SCEN simulations: (a) SCEN-CTL; () SCEN UNCOUPLED - CTL UNCOUPLED ; () (SCEN-SCEN UNCOUPLED ) - (CTL-CTL UNCOUPLED ); () CTL-CTL UNCOUPLED ; () SCEN-SCEN UNCOUPLED. (S Supplmntary Disussion ). 4

5 Pripitation (mm/), stv a SCEN-CTL SCEN UNCOUPLED -CTL UNCOUPLED (SCEN-SCEN UNC )-(CTL-CTL UNC ) CTL-CTL UNCOUPLED.9.7 SCEN-SCEN UNCOUPLED Supplmntary Figur : As SF4, ut for pripitation [mm/].

6 Supplmntary Tal : St-up of simulations Simulations Driving GCM Simulation Analysis Soil moistur simulation prio prio* stat CTL HaAM_CTL Intrativ SCEN HaAM_A Intrativ CTL UNCOUPLED HaAM_CTL CTL limatology SCEN UNCOUPLED HaAM_A SCEN limatology * Whnvr mntion, th CTL tim prio an SCEN tim prio rfr to th analysis prio. 6

7 Supplmntary Disussion : Consistny of man limat an intrannual variaility of CTL an SCEN simulations with multi-mol RCM an GCM xprimnts Within th framwork of th Europan projt PRUDENCE, th unprtur simulations CTL an SCEN wr ompar with a numr of stat-of-th-art RCMs with rgar to hangs in summr limat variaility (Vial t al. 6, hraftr rfrr to as V6). It was foun that th intifi inras of summr tmpratur variaility in Cntral Europ is a vry onsistnt fatur in all RCMs, though th magnitu, xat spatial istriution an timing of th fft an somwhat iffr. Morovr, V6 also show that th ras in man soil moistur ontnt an inras in soil moistur variaility foun in Cntral Europ was prsnt in six RCMs analyz in pr tail (V6, Fig. ). Th inras in pripitation variaility is prsnt in most RCM simulations ut lss onsistnt than th inras in tmpratur variaility (V6, Fig. 7). In th Supplmntary Figurs - (hraftr rfrr to as SF-), w xtn this analysis to IPCC AR4 GCM simulations. SF- isplay hangs in man an stanar viation (s Mthos) of th JJA tmpratur, soil moistur, pripitation, an vapotranspiration in th CTL an SCEN simulations (SF), in th ECHAM, HADGEM, an GFDL GCMs (SF), an in all analyz GCMs (SF). For tails onrning th GCM simulations, plas rfr to th Mthos stion. Th hoi of GCMs isplay in SF orrspons to mols haratriz y high-quality irulation pattrns in th northrn mi- an high latitus an in Europ (van Uln an van Olnorgh, 6). Th omparison of SF- shows that th analyz GCMs prsnt similar hangs in man limat an limat variaility as th unprtur RCM xprimnts (CTL, SCEN). Thy thus appar ovrall onsistnt with th rsults otain in our molling framwork. Not that our xprimnts isplay a partiularly los agrmnt with th thr high-quality irulation GCMs onrning th xat magnitu of th hangs in intrannual summr variaility (whih ar mor amp in th -GCMs man valus). Rfrns: Vial, P.L., Lüthi, D., Wgmann, R. & Shär, C. Europan limat variaility in a htrognous multi-mol nsml. Clim. Chang, onitionally apt (6). van Uln, A.O. & van Olnorgh, G.J. Larg-sal atmosphri irulation iass an hangs in gloal limat simulations an thir importan for limat hang in Cntral Europ. Atmos. Chm. Phys., 6, (6). 7

8 Supplmntary Disussion : Analysis of fators ontriuting to hangs in summr variaility of tmpratur an pripitation W prsnt hr a mor tail analysis of th fators ontriuting to hangs in summr tmpratur an pripitation variaility twn th CTL an SCEN simulations. Th rlativ ontriution of hangs in lan-atmosphr oupling an xatly fin using th following quation: SCEN-CTL = (SCEN UNCOUPLED - CTL UNCOUPLED ) () + [(SCEN - SCEN UNCOUPLED ) - (CTL - CTL UNCOUPLED )] Following (), w fin two main ontriutions to th hang in tmpratur/pripitation variaility: [(SCEN - SCEN UNCOUPLED ) - (CTL - CTL UNCOUPLED )]: Chang in lan-atmosphr oupling ontriution to tmpratur/pripitation variaility twn th CTL an SCEN limat onitions (SCEN UNCOUPLED - CTL UNCOUPLED ): Chang in othr fators (.g. - ut not xlusivly - irulation pattrns, sa surfa tmpraturs) Th rlativ ontriutions of ths two trms to th hangs in summr tmpratur variaility ar isplay in Figur g,h as wll as in omination with th trms (SCEN-SCEN UNCOUPLED ) an (CTL-CTL UNCOUPLED ) in th Supplmntary Figur 4 (hraftr rfrr to as SF4). Ths figurs show that th fft of th hang in oupling is mainly loat in Cntral an Eastrn Europ, whil ffts of xtrnal fators appar strongr in Fran. Not that Fig. h (rsptivly, SF4) is onsistnt with th analysis of hangs in lan-atmosphr oupling strngth isplay in Fig. an Fig. a,. Th sam analyss for hangs in summr pripitation variaility ar isplay in Figur 4, an SF. Ths figurs show that th ovrall pattrns of hangs (ras in th Mitrranan, inras in Cntral an Eastrn Europ) appar rlat to xtrnal fators, whil th partiularly high inras of variaility in th Alpin rgion is link to hangs in lan-atmosphr oupling haratristis in th simulations. 8