Mobile and Wide-Area IoT: LPWA and LTE connectivity

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Mobile and Wide-Area IoT: LPWA and LTE connectivity Technical and Economic Analysis: Matching each application with the best standards Abstract The Internet of Things has begun with simple home

1 Mobile and Wide-Area IoT: LPWA and LTE connectivity Technical and Economic Analysis: Matching each application with the best standards Abstract The Internet of Things has begun with simple home automation, with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth technologies. As IoT goes mobile, the industry faces the question of which wireless formats are best for link budget, as well as fundamental economic questions about the Total Cost of Ownership for SigFox, LoRa, Weightless, Telensa UNB, RPMA, QoWisio, DART, and other options. 3GPP based options such as LTE Category 0 and Category 1, and NB-IoT are also examined for performance and cost, along with short-range wireless options such as ZigBee, ah and af, ISA100.11a, and WirelessHART. This report compares emerging standards to the LTE evolution path for wide-area IoT applications, to investigate the viability of each technology. The key outcome of the report is to show how each technology matches up with more than 80 different IoT applications. January 2016 Frank Rayal Produced by Mobile Experts in collaboration with XONA Partners

2 Table of Contents Executive Summary 5 Key Forecast Chart: Global LPWA Device Shipments 2 The Spectrum Landscape 10 Licensed-Exempt Spectrum for IoT connectivity 10 Regulatory Framework for License-Exempt Spectrum 10 FCC Regulations 10 European Union Regulations (CEPT/ETSI) 11 TV Whitespaces (TVWS) 12 Licensed Spectrum 12 Key Takeaways Based on Spectrum Regulatory Framework 13 Wide-Area IoT Connectivity Technologies 14 Low-Power Wide Area Technologies 14 SigFox 16 Technology Characteristics and Applications 18 LoRa 18 Technology Characteristics and Applications 20 Weightless SIG 20 Weightless-P 20 Weightless-N 22 Weightless-W 23 Telensa UNB 23 Random Phase Multiple Access (RPMA) 24 Qowisio 25 DART 25 LPWA Technologies Summary 26 3GPP IoT Technologies 27 Narrowband IoT 29 3GPP IoT Roadmap and Likely Outcomes 31 1

3 Short-Range Wide Area Technologies 32 IEEE WirelessHART 33 ISA100.11a 33 ZigBee 34 IEEE ah and af 34 Technology Comparative Analysis 35 Operating Features 35 Range performance 35 Capacity Performance 38 Power Consumption 41 Qualitative Assessment 42 Standards and Interoperability 43 Time to Market 43 Speed of Deployment 43 Summary Observations 44 Techno-Economic Analysis of LPWA 46 Device Costs 46 Network Costs 48 The Radio Access Network 49 The Core Network 51 Total Cost of Ownership 53 MNO Strategy for LPWA 53 Impact of Regulatory Framework on TCO 53 Revenue Model and Profitability 54 Additional Observations from the TCO Model 55 The Business Model 56 The Network Operator Model 56 The Ecosystem Model 57 The Vertical Approach 57 The Threat of Incumbents 58 Home Automation Applications 58 Smart City Lighting Applications 59 Industrial Automation 61 2

4 Matching IoT Applications to LPWA and 3GPP Standards 63 LPWA Early Adopters 63 LPWA and 3GPP Mass Market Applications 65 Market Penetration and Market Size 80 Acronyms 84 Appendix 1 Abridged Weightless-P Features List. 86 Appendix 2 Link Budget Calculations 86 Appendix 3 Description of IoT Application 92 3

5 List of Figures Figure 1 Range vs. data rate for IoT connectivity technologies. 7 Figure 2 IoT connectivity market structure. 9 Figure 3 Market prognosis and evolution roadmap for LPWA and 3GPP IoT connectivity technologies. 9 Figure 4 Network topologies for area connectivity. 14 Figure 5 LPWA General network architecture. 15 Figure 6 Macro diversity in SigFox UNB. 17 Figure 7 SigFox base station. 17 Figure 8 LoRa network architecture. 19 Figure 9 Network infrastructure sharing among several service providers. 22 Figure 10 Telensa UNB in smart lighting application. 24 Figure 11 LTE roadmap to support machine-type communications. 28 Figure 12 Roadmap and projected availability of 3GPP IoT technologies. 31 Figure 13 Normalized effective range for IoT connectivity technologies. 37 Figure 14 Number of sites required for contiguous indoor coverage, Paris and San Francisco. 38 Figure 15 Information rate and power consumption performance of wide area connectivity protocols. 42 Figure 16 Characteristics of wide area IoT connectivity technologies. 44 Figure 17 Cost structure for IoT connectivity device. 46 Figure 18 Microchip LoRa and AXSEM SigFox modules. 48 Figure 19 IoT Module average selling price in high volume. 48 Figure 20 Reference model for LPWA IoT networks. 49 Figure 21 Network operator range of service offering. 49 Figure 22 Overview of LoRaNet end-to-end network. 52 Figure 23 Capex requirements for LPWA radio access networks buildout. 54 Figure 24 Application of in street lighting deployment. 60 Figure 25 Leveraging the street lighting grid for smart city applications. 68 Figure 26 Global Mobile Devices and Connections by 2G, 3G, and 4G. 80 Figure 27 Global Forecast for LPWA Device Shipments 82 4

6 List of Tables Table 1 Relative ranking of LPWA technologies. 7 Table 2 ISM and SRD bands available for LPWAN. 10 Table 3 FCC 915 MHz regulatory requirements covering LPWAN. 11 Table 4 ECC regulatory requirements covering LPWAN. 11 Table 5 Duty cycle characteristics for SRD requirements. 11 Table 6 Comparative analysis of licensed and licensed-exempt spectrum. 12 Table 7. SigFox duration of transmissions. 16 Table 8 LoRa regional operating parameters. 18 Table 9 Overview of Weightless series of IoT connectivity standards. 20 Table 10 DART device classes and performance capabilities. 25 Table 11 Technical parameters for LPWA technologies. 26 Table 12 Feature list comparison for different UE categories. 28 Table 13 Key parameters of 3GPP narrowband IoT technologies. 30 Table 14 Frequency bands for 3GPP NB-IoT. 30 Table 15 Comparison between LTE Cat-m1 and NB-IoT. 32 Table 16 Comparative analysis of key LPWA and 3GPP technology parameters. 35 Table 17 Network parameters for LPWAN and 3GPP IoT technologies. 36 Table 18 Coverage performance of LPWAN and 3GPP IoT systems. 37 Table 19 Theoretic capacity of SigFox UNB channel. 39 Table 20 Capacity of LPWAN networks. 40 Table 21 Comparative analysis between 3GPP and LPWAN. 44 Table 22 LTE modem complexity and projected module costs. 46 Table 23 IoT module cost structure to achieving sub $5 cost target. 47 Table 24 Capital expenditures for wide-area IoT connectivity networks. 50 Table 25 Data storage requirements in UNB networks. 51 Table 26 Annual operational expenditures for wide-area IoT connectivity networks. 51 Table 27 Annualized capex and opex expenditure amortized per cell site. 53 Table 28 Total cost of ownership for wide-area connectivity networks per cell site. 53 Table 29 SigFox service packages. 54 Table 30 RAN breakeven parameters for urban LPWAN deployments. 55 Table 31 Approach to market and its context. 56 Table 32 Qualifications of prominent LPWA applications. 63 Table 33 LPWA application characteristics and critical parameters. 65 Table 34 LPWA, 3GPP and SRWA technology applicability per market segment and application. 66 Table 35 Prime IoT Segments for LPWA deployments. 82 Table 36 IoT Segments where LPWA would have least penetration. 82 Table 37 IoT market segments where LPWA will have mixed impact. 82 Table 38 Link budget for LTE-MTC Cat-m1 (3GPP Release 13). 71 Table 39 Link Budget for NB-IoT (3GPP Release 13). 71 Table 40 Link budget for LPWA technologies per FCC regulations. 92 Table 41 Link budget for LPWA technologies per CEPT/ETSI rules. 92 5

LPWA vs LTE: What should Mobile Operators Do?

LPWA vs LTE: What should Mobile Operators Do? Joe Madden Principal Analyst Mobile Experts LLC May 2016 LPWA standards are off to a good start, with networks in the field in many countries, dozens of active