Market Coupling en regions: results and perspectives
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1 Market Coupling en regions: results and perspectives NEUF Conference, Warsaw, 6 June 2008 Bert den Ouden CEO, APX Group b.denouden@apxgroup.com
2 Introduction Today s content APX Group: an Anglo-Dutch energy market Market Coupling Netherlands-Belgium-France Results from market coupling Perspectives for the Dutch market European challenge Page 2
3 APX Group now Dutch electricity UK electricity UK gas (largest gas spot market in Europe) Dutch gas ( Gas roundabout ) Belgian gas (Zeebrugge hub) Market Coupling services to TSO s Belpex electricity: services, shares Clearing and services for carbon trading APX Gas UK APX Power UK APX Gas ZEE APX Gas NL APX Power NL Belpex Power next Page 3
4 Development of APX Group members 250 APX Power NL APX Power UK APX Gas UK APX Gas ZEE APX Gas NL Members EnMO Acquisition (July 2003) UKPX Acquisition (July 2004) Page 4
5 Development of APX Group volumes Yearly Average GWh/day 600 APX Power NL APX Power UK APX Gas UK APX Gas ZEE & NL GWh EnMO Acquisition (July 2003) UKPX Acquisition (July 2004) Page 5
6 Volumes APX Group MWh/day Gas Zee, 6 Gas NL, 1,835 March 2008 Power NL, 62,020 Clearing Benelux, 47,231 Power NL Clearing Benelux Power UK Gas UK Gas Zee Gas NL Gas UK, 277,188 Power UK, 30,297 Page 6
7 Day-ahead spot market Double-sided auction: Supply side bids Demand side bids Batch process of stacked bids Hourly prices and volumes Physical delivery Price Demand Supply Central counter party: APX Equilibrium price for each hour (Euro/per MegaWattHour): divide by 10 to get consumer price equivalent (Eurocent per kwh) clearing price This is wholesale market price For consumer price, add other elements e.g. grid costs, taxes. Volume: about 20% of Dutch consumtion traded volume Quantity Page 7
8 Typical result: 20% of Dutch demand Average Price Volume Day (All hours) eur MWh Peak hours (8 to 23) eur MWh Super Peak hours (9 to 20) eur MWh Off Peak hours (24 to 7) eur MWh Page 8
9 Market Coupling solution Netherlands-Belgium-France APX initiatives towards Belgium from 2002 Agreements with Belgian parties, Powernext in 2004 Result: One integrated system, 1-step operation Spot markets and cross-border flows in one Generating spot market prices New Belgian power exchange Belpex 3 PX s and 3 TSO s working together Political will Started 22 November APX Bel pex Elia TenneT Power next RTE Page 9
10 TLC technical solution:nec curves + block iterations, heuristics TenneT ELIA ELIA RTE Available capacity NL-BE border Coordination module Available capacity BE-FR border Bid- and offer information in standardized format * Price & volume APX Resolve blocks Belpex Powernext Bids & offers Settlement & Publishing of results Page 10 * = Iterative calculations
11 Marktkoppeling (1) (2) (3) Prijsverschil Geisoleerde Bij voldoende markten gereduceerd capaciteit: 1 door geharmoniseerde im/exporten markt met 1 prijs Spotmarkt A Spotmarkt B Prijs Prijs imports exports Volume Volume Page 11
12 Price convergence after Market Coupling Price (Euros/MWh) market coupling Daily average prices for TLC countries Powernext Belpex APX Page 12 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Date
13 Achievements of market coupling: integration of price areas Old situation 2% 100% of time 19% Either prices will converge 100%, or prices diverge but then the transmission capacity used for 100% Better price index Better efficiency and better economic results Better basis for longterm contracts & investments Page 13 6% 73%: Copper plate Shown are the data for January 2007 Percentages vary each month
14 Achievements of market coupling: Price difference Netherlands-France Hourly price difference, /MWh 40% P > 10 51% P % P < 1 Before Market Coupling Winter % P > 10 19% P % P < 1 68% P=0 Equal price copper plate After Market Coupling Winter 2007 P >10 P 1-10 P <1 Equal price copper plate Page 14
15 Time % of full capacity utilization: Dutch-Belgian border January 2006 May 2007 market coupling Utilisation full import capacity to NL Utilisation full export capacity from NL 10 days average Page 15
16 Mix of implicit and explicit auctions Nordic model: only daily cross-border No auction of longterm capacity All capacity daily allocated in market splitting Long-term contracts are financial Central European model: mix of daily and long-term Explicit auction for monthly/yearly capacity Daily capacity auction, explicit or implicit (=market coupling) Both physical and financial cross-border contracts Future: Use It Or Sell It? Parties submit explicit capacity back to TSO, receive implicit auction revenue Use as FTR (Financial Transmission Right) Explicit Auction All Daily capacity Page 16 Implicit Auction before Daily Monthly and Yearly now Implicit Explicit Implicit UIOSI Explicit proposed
17 Dutch, Belgian, French Prices Price convergence NL more expensive: we import NL electricity cheaper: we export Page 17
18 Market coupling development 2006 NL-BE-FR NorNed cable 2008 Danish-German 2009: NL-B-F+Germany 2010: BritNed cable Nord pool Stattnet MoU on Central Western Europe APX UK Power next APX TenneT BelpexElia German EEX TSO s RTE Page 18
19 Price convergence simulation for coupling in the region (NL-Be-Lux-Ger-Fr) Hourly price difference, /MWh Results Historically Simulated coupling 35% 38% 56% 52% 33% 58% 15% 14% 3% 68% 24% 19% 12% 19% 2% 3% 66% 54% P >10 P 1-10 P <1 Equal price copper plate 9% 9% 9% Fr-Nl Fr-Ge Nl-Ge Fr-Nl Fr-Ge Nl-Ge * by APX ** simple daily ATC capacities like used in the explicit auctions (not flow-based) Page 19
20 Trilateral Multilateral / N country Market Coupling TSO s ATCs, PTDFs, ramping limits, losses and per MW flow tariffs Prices & volumes Net Export/Import curve + blocks Coordination module??? APX Belpex Powernext EEX Bids& offers Settlement & results Added functionality (on top of TLC): Coupling of N-markets Support for meshed networks with both AC and DC lines Use ATC s or of PTDF matrices for AC lines (flow-based) & for cables: Ramping on DC lines Losses over DC lines Flow-based transmission model Page 20
21 Regional approach to the integrated European market Integrated market 1-2 Page 21
22 Dome Coupling between regions Dome Dome Coupling Principle inter-regional Volume coupling Bridge Coupling Principle (temporary) Volume coupled UK UK Single region CWE regio Nl Nl TLC Be Be Fr Fr Market Coupling Price Coupled Ge Ge Nord Pool Spot NO NO 1 NO 1 NO 2 2 DK DK 1 DK 1 DK 2 2 Market Splitting Price Coupled Fi Fi Sw Sw Other Other region region AA B B C C Volume based Market Coupling Other Other region region DD E F Market Splitting or Market Coupling Page 22
23 Gas market integration: a North sea gas market Gas trading Also trading: - Spreads - Transport - Storage NBP nector BBL Inter Inter Inter Inter Inter Inter Inter Inter connector connector nector nector nector nector nector LNG ZEE LNG TTF Page 23
24 Let s make the connection. Thank you for your attention b.denouden@apxgroup.com
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