2017 Year End. Southeastern Wisconsin Industrial. Market Research Report

Transcription

1 2017 Year End Southeastern Wisconsin Industrial Market Research Report

2 Research Market Report Introduction 2017 was a year of large user deals. Southeastern Wisconsin (SE WI), a market that generally sees deals in the 30,000-50,000 square feet range, had a number of deals exceed 100,000 square feet. Surprisingly, the larger user deals were not solely concentrated in the south submarket, rather, they were spread across the region. In 2017 Madden Communications and Johnson Health Tech took a combined 510,000 square feet in the south submarket, and users such as Guy & O'Neil, Hallmark Building Supply, Kirby Products, and Linder Logistics, occupied a total of 470,000 square feet across the north, west, and central submarkets. Overall, market activity slowed in 2017 compared to 2016 despite the amount of large deals. As new construction continues to drive absorption, the market remains tight with limited availabilities. As a result, vacancy rates have begun to stabilize, with rates ending the year at around 4.5 percent. Moving into the new year, market fundamentals are expected to remain strong. Market Indicators VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION Quarter Over Quarter Year Over Year SPECIALTY REPORT UPDATED DATA STANDARDS In December, one of the major commercial real estate data providers, Xceligent, filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy, with all operations halting. Since 2012, Xceligent had served as Colliers Wisconsin primary quarterly data source. As a result, CoStar Group is now the primary data source for Colliers Wisconsin quarterly data and market reports. The shift in data providers will result in a shift in the data, however, the overall market trends remain the same. The guidelines for the tracked data set remains consistent with those of Xceligent. All properties deemed not obsolete and greater than 10,000 square feet within the following counties are included: Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Washington, Washington, Milwaukee, Racine, Walworth, and Kenosha. Properties are categorized as office services, warehouse and distribution, and manufacturing. The data contained herein was sourced based on the above guidelines from CoStar Group. This includes not only 2017 Q4 data, but also historical data dating back to Modifications to the data have been made based on proprietary information. Economic Activity The continuing positive trajectory for the local economy sets an encouraging stage. Unemployment declined from the previous quarter at the metro, state, and national levels. Manufacturing jobs at the state and metro levels have seen the highest year over year increase in recent quarters. State and Milwaukee metro manufacturing jobs have increased 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively. Wisconsin s positive MEI contribution edged out Illinois to lead the Midwest. Across the region, the sector that had a material impact was manufacturing. Positive across all states, manufacturing continues to be a driving force for the region. As expected, during the winter months construction activity slows leading to construction, services and consumer sectors having slightly negative contributions to the regional economy. Economic Indicators METRO MKE UNEMPL. 3.0% WISCONSIN UNEMPL. 3.2% NATIONAL UNEMPL. 4.1% WI MEI* ,800 Wisconsin Quarter over Quarter 122,400 Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2017 *Relative Midwest Economy Index: Wisconsin s contribution to the Chicago FED Midwest Economy Index. A positive value signals above average performance 2 Year End Industrial Report 2017 Quarter 4 Southeastern Wisconsin Colliers International

3 Summary Statistics Q Industrial Market OS MF WD Vacancy Rate 4.05% 3.04% 6.16% Change From Q (basis points) Absorption (Square Feet) New Construction 2017 (Square Feet) ,610 1,023, , , ,500 2,589,398 HISTORICAL NET ABSORPTION 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , ,000 Under Construction (Square Feet) 0 579,595 1,110,020-1,000, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Source: CoStar & Colliers Wisconsin Research Net Absorption Similar to national markets, the SE WI Industrial markets continue to see positive absorption. Due to space constraints, especially in the south and west submarkets, absorption throughout the year has primarily been driven users occupying space in new deliveries. The end of year slowdown of deliveries partially contributed to the decrease in absorption both year over year and quarter over quarter. Also contributing to the decrease was QuadMeds vacating nearly 195,000 square feet of warehouse space in Waukesha. HISTORICAL VACANCY By Submarket 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Positive absorption this quarter was kick-started by Foxconn s initial investment, leasing 155,844 square feet of warehouse-distribution space at the newly delivered Globe Drive in Mount Pleasant. In addition, Allstate Trucking and Air Pilot Freight leased a combined 133,190 square feet at Oakview Business Park. 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2014 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 North Northwest Central West South 2017 Q Q4 Vacancy Industrial vacancy rates across SE WI closed out the year sub-five percent for the second year in a row, with vacancy at the end of 2017 nearly 32 basis points lower than Q Overall, vacancy rates have continued to decrease over recent years with individual increases in vacancy resulting from the delivery of various speculative new construction. The south submarket has been the most impacted by the delivery of speculative product, as demonstrated by the spikes in vacancy seen in the graph to the right. However, despite new construction, vacancy remains just over five percent due to speculative product being quickly absorbed by the market. Similarly, nationally, vacancy continues to drop despite record high construction numbers. Across product types manufacturing space realized the lowest vacancy for the quarter. Office services (flex) was next, followed by warehouse and distribution. Factoring into these numbers are a few things. First, the rates among property types vary greatly between submarket, so location continues to be a driving factor. Next, a majority of new product is warehouse/distribution space increasing the vacancy of this specific use. Lastly, higher quality, new space has the lowest vacancy across property types regardless of the specific use and despite higher rental rates. VACANCY By Use 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% OS MF WD North Northwest West Central South OS - Office Services / Flex MF - Manufacturing WD - Warehouse/Distribution Source: CoStar & Colliers Wisconsin Research 3 Year End Industrial Report 2017 Quarter 4 Southeastern Wisconsin Colliers International

4 NORTHWEST WEST WALWORTH SHEBOYGAN OZAUKEE WASHINGTON WAUKESHA MILWAUKEE RACINE KENOSHA NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH Construction The south submarket continues to lead SE WI in total square feet under construction, due to limited available land in almost all submarkets except the south. Within the south submarket, Racine county had surpassed Kenosha county for projects under construction and with Foxconn's proposed campus in Racine county, this will likely remain. Overall square feet under construction saw an uptick from previous quarters. Partially driving the uptick was the limited number of product delivered to market. Surprisingly, two projects broke ground in Q4, resulting in total square feet under construction increasing from Q3. As speculative projects continue to lease prior to or shortly after delivery, the volume of projects will likely continue, especially considering the market fundamentals in SE WI. Wisconsin / Illinois State Line Historical Construction Volume 5,000,000 SF Under Construction by county 4,500,000 4,000,000 Washington 200,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Waukesha 113,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Milwaukee 637,276 1,500,000 1,000,000 Racine 526, ,000 0 Kenosha 212, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q , , , , , , ,000 Source: CoStar & Colliers Wisconsin Research New Industrial Parks With vacancy at historic lows, and industrial space demand fundamentals strong, southeastern Wisconsin has begun to search for ways to meet the demand. One of the solutions is the acquisition of land for the creation of new business parks, rather than single building construction sites. With one park located in the northwest submarket, the remaining three parks that are proposed are located south of downtown Milwaukee. Ryan Rd Business Park is located near the airport and spans almost 90 acres. The other two parks, both located in the south submarket, make up a combined 686 acres. In early 2017, Prairie Highlands Business Park was acquired from Abbot Laboratories who originally purchased the land for a manufacturing facility. Earlier in 2017, HARIBO U.S. selected the site as its location for the company's first U.S. manufacturing facility. The other new south submarket business park will be located at the Former Dairyland Greyhound Park, to be developed by Majestic Realty Co. The park was also announced this past year and will seek to address the additional demand the south and specially Kenosha county has experienced. Willow Creek Business Park Prairie Highlands Business Park Ryan Rd Business Park Former Dairlyland Greyhound Park 4 Year End Industrial Report 2017 Quarter 4 Southeastern Wisconsin Colliers International

5 SPECIALTY REPORT NATIONAL INDUSTRIAL TRENDS: E-COMMERCE E-commerce operations tend to have two to three times higher employee count Companies are utilizing automation hand-in-hand with employees as a way to reduce human work burden and increase productivity Due to the greater use of automation future demand will be linked to the availability of quantities labor, specifically specialized engineering workers Reliable power sources such as solar power and individual building generators are becoming more common as the use of technology increases in warehouses Industrial fundamentals will remain strong as new product is delivered and obsolete product is repurposed Source: Colliers Internationals, The E-commerce Revolution, January 2018 Looking Forward: 2018 Moving into 2018, the industrial market in SE WI will be most impacted by two facets: investment by Foxconn and national e-commerce trends. As Foxconn prepares to invest $10 billion in a manufacturing campus in Mount Pleasant, the trend of larger users and heightened activity in market may continue. As investors and downstream suppliers look to benefit from the spill-over effects resulting from Foxconn. The south submarket, the location of the proposed campus, currently has over 700,000-square-feet of product under construction and delivered 2.25 million square feet of new product in As plans are finalized, this momentum will likely continue as long as developers and users are able to find buildable land upon which to build. Multiple developers have secured sites and are awaiting Mount Pleasant Village approval to begin developments. The second trend impacting the industrial market is the rise of e-commerce. As companies look to adjust their supply chains to respond to the increasing demand for one-day or same-day delivery, the demand for high quality warehouse and distribution space will continue into As online shopping continues to gain market share, the need for e-commerce distribution centers will continue. In SE WI, developers are anticipating the increase in demand and have just shy of 800,000 square feet of speculative product in the pipeline Trends Increase in speculative development through the first half of the year Vacancy rates will increase slightly due to the introduction of new product to the market 2018 will see an increase in smaller deals (range 30K to 50K SF) Due to the Foxconn announcement, activity in the south market will increase for both speculative and user projects Sources: Milwaukee Business Journal & Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 5 Year End Industrial Report 2017 Quarter 4 Southeastern Wisconsin Colliers International

6 Q Industrial Market Statistics 2017 Quarter 4 EXISTING PROPERTIES TOTAL VACANCY NET ABSORPTION - SF NEW SUPPLY - SF UNDER BLDG TYPE BLDGS TOTAL SF SF Q4-17 Q4-16 CURRENT QUARTER YEAR TO DATE CURRENT QUARTER YEAR TO DATE CONST. SF NORTH MARKET: Ozaukee County and Sheboygan County OS 91 3,648,298 44, % 1.59% 40,000 13, MF ,333, , % 7.15% -42,423-57, WD ,166, , % 2.68% 2,436 39, Total ,147,688 1,139, % 4.36% 13-4, NORTHWEST MARKET: Washington County OS 101 3,452,981 78, % 4.90% 67,364 90, MF 136 8,239,023 1, % 0.14% 11,655 57, WD 142 7,128, , % 8.23% 1, ,593-32, ,000 Total ,820, , % 4.08% 80, ,147-32, ,000 WEST MARKET: Waukesha County OS ,990, , % 4.09% -331, , MF ,724, , % 1.82% 172, ,982 65, , ,000 WD ,700, , % 3.42% -119, , Total 1,450 71,415,218 1,725, % 2.78% -278, ,689 65, , ,000 CENTRAL MARKET: Milwaukee County OS ,417, , % 3.65% -295, ,674-83,640 - MF ,584,151 2,140, % 4.71% 806, , ,595 WD ,905,436 3,579, % 8.05% 12, ,023 48, , ,681 Total 1, ,906,671 6,590, % 5.79% 522, ,258 48, , ,276 SOUTH MARKET: Racine County, Kenosha County and Walworth County OS 57 2,621, , % 5.89% 17,360 71, ,000 - MF ,121, , % 4.55% 75, ,364-80, ,000 WD ,858,204 2,768, % 6.47% 304,215 2,052, ,000 2,310, ,339 Total ,601,265 3,626, % 5.63% 397,494 2,806, ,000 2,523, ,339 GRAND TOTAL OS ,130,190 1,666, % 3.84% -501, , ,640 - MF 1, ,002,690 4,074, % 3.85% 1,023,325 1,952,194 65, , ,595 WD 1, ,758,354 7,804, % 6.16% 200,777 3,126, ,000 2,589,398 1,110,020 Total 4, ,891,234 13,545, % 4.81% 722,492 4,643, ,000 3,267,538 1,689,615 QUARTERLY COMPARISON TOTALS 2017 Q4 4, ,891,234 13,545, % - 722, ,000-1,689, Q3 4, ,799,597 13,176, % - 1,456, ,000-1,430, Q2 4, ,206,597 13,039, % - 2,059,642-1,926, , Q1 4, ,174,589 14,067, % - 405, ,620-2,212, Q4 4, ,141,589 14,439, % - 1,396, ,000-2,314,044 Source: CoStar & Colliers Wisconsin Research The data contained within was obtained by a third party source deemed reliable. Updates have been made to include proprietary information. 6 Year End Industrial Report 2017 Quarter 4 Southeastern Wisconsin Colliers International

7 2017: NOTABLE CLOSINGS Colliers Wisconsin Industrial Services Team SOLD 3420 W. Capitol Drive Milwaukee, WI 94,191 SF 5730 N. Glen Park Road Glendale, WI 80,225 SF S. 56th Street West Allis, WI 50,250 SF 9840 S. 27th Street Oak Creek, WI 36,000 SF 5300 W. Lincoln Avenue West Allis, WI 30,119 SF SOLD W142 N9078 Fountain Blvd. Menomonee Falls, WI 28,212 SF W223 N2870 Roundy Circle W. Pewaukee, WI 20,242 SF 5900 N. 91st Street Milwaukee, WI 18,000 SF 4107 W. Orchard Street Milwaukee, WI 200,000 SF 900 North Street Grafton, WI 167,699 SF Globe Drive Mount Pleasant, WI 155,844 SF 4298 Capital Circle Janesville, WI 100,063 SF 4915 W. Burnham Street West Milwaukee, WI 48,601 SF 4145 Courtney Road Franksville, WI 44,600 SF W. Beloit Road New Berlin, WI 28,000 SF 305 E. Mahn Court Oak Creek, WI 16,047 SF LEASED RENEWED 2821 Muth Court Sheboygan, WI 288,500 SF N90 W14700 Commerce Drive Menomonee Falls, WI 104,000 SF 6185 S. Ace Industrial Drive Cudahy, WI 65,384 SF Becher Street West Allis, WI 29,292 SF 305 E. Mahn Court Oak Creek, WI 23,186 SF 3275 Intertech Drive Brookfield, WI 16,800 SF

8 Bill Langhoff Mark Schnoll Caitlin Fitzpatrick Mike Fardy Jim Larkin Bill Quinlivan Pat Hake Steve Sewart FOR MORE INFORMATION Mike Fardy President Wisconsin countries $2.6 billion in annual revenue 2 billion square feet under management Margaret Bruckner Research Analyst Wisconsin Margaret.Bruckner@colliers.com About Colliers International Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIGI) is an industry leading global real estate services company with more than 15,000 skilled professionals operating in 68 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that help clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 12 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. 15,000 professionals and staff Colliers International Wisconsin 833 E Michigan Street, Suite # colliers.com/en-us/wisconsin $105 billion in total transaction value Copyright 2018 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 8 North American Research & Forecast Report Q Office Market Outlook Colliers International