ICT Innovations in risk-informed early warning systems
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- Derick McCormick
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1 ICT Innovations in risk-informed early warning systems Contributions through the ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness
2 ESCAP Multi-Donor Trust Fund for Tsunami, Disaster and Climate Preparedness A Decade Reducing Tsunami Risk in Asia-Pacific Thematic Areas of Trust-Fund Projects : $15 million 19% 12% 44% Early Warning Communication Risk Knowledge Response (SOP) 25% 1. Leveraged ESCAP s comparative advantages 2. Regional benefits (standards, sharing of experience) 3. Filled gaps in early warning 4. Built institutional capacity of member States 5. Created regional architecture of multi-hazard early warning
3 #1 Innovation End-to-end tsunami early warning services to low capacity, high risk countries - Scenario based risk informed tsunami early warning services
4 Architecture of Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) Trust Fund Contributions - RIMES 24x7 operations for underserved countries National projects, Tsunami SOPs, Capacity development activities Courtesy of USAID IOTWS Investment US$300 M; US$90 annual operating cost ESCAP addresses capacity gaps in Maldives, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, RIMES India: National System Indonesia: National System Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Australia: National System
5 Enhancing Coastal Hazard Early Warning and Response: Tools and Institutional Strengthening INSPIRE, a computer-based tsunami propagation and inundation risk assessment tool ESCAPE, a computer-based evacuation mapping tool
6 INSPIRE Internet based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation Tsunami tool for hazard and risk assessment Recommended to use worst case scenarios to guide evacuation mapping
7 INSPIRE Internet based Simulation Platform for Inundation and Risk Evaluation Estimated Casualties Estimated Building Damage
8 ESCAPE Evaluation System for Computing Accessibility and Planning Evacuation Land cover Slope Critical facilities Population density Age and gender Evacuation basin and direction to shelters Required evacuation time
9 #2 Innovation Operationalizing Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) through Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), an international standard, for exchanging emergency alerts that allows a consistent alert message to be disseminated simultaneously over many different communications systems.
10 CAP on a MAP Improving Institutional Responsiveness to Coastal Hazards through Multi-Agency Situational Awareness PAGASA Free Mobile Alert Act PHIVOLCS BULLETIN (PDF) SMS WEB MOBILE APP The following originate and relay architecture has been tested and proven Myanmar Philippines Maldives
11 CAP on a MAP in the Philippines Super Typhoon Haima (Lawin) SAMBRO Bulletin
12 CAP on a MAP in Myanmar Alerts from the Unnamed Cyclone affecting Myanmar (Oct 2016)
13 #3 Innovation Impact-based forecasting for slow-onset disasters
14 Challenges of Impact based forecasts: Real time scenarios Trigger Probabilistic Forecast Risk Scenarios Impact Outlook
15 SESAME Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture Forecast Component of different lead time ECMWF Seasonal and Monthly outlooks Monthly update 10 days Pentad (averaged condition over 5 days) RIMES WRF model 3 days high resolution forecast Parameters: rainfall temperature (Tmax, Tmin) wind speed and direction humidity
16 SESAME Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture Dynamic Crop information panel for expert users Weather bulletins for Pentads, monthly and seasonal outlooks Real time verification of forecast products Validation of information at different levels: NHMS Agro-met staff Extension Worker Farmer
17 SESAME Specialized Expert System for Agro-Meteorological Early Warning for Climate Resilient Agriculture Dissemination of information service SMS service, through gateways Fax service Mobile application Android version - Beta SMS SMS Alert! Temp will rise by 3 deg C above Threshold in next 24 hrs. PROTECT YOUR GRAPES FROM EXCESSIVE HEAT
18 Thank you Sanjay K Srivastava, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok srivastavas@un.org
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