Oklahoma Economic Outlook 2016
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1 Oklahoma Economic Outlook 216 by Dan Rickman Regents Professor of Economics and Oklahoma Gas and Electric Services Chair in Regional Economic Analysis
2 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Growth (%): IHS Global Insight Forecast Q4 215Q1 215Q2 215Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 U.S. Real GDP-Pess U.S. Real GDP-Base
3 U.S. Potential GDP Growth (%): Population and Labor Force Growth Constraints (IHS Global Insight, Inc.) Nonfarm Emp Population Civilian Labor Force Potential GDP-Smoothed
4 Oil Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): West Texas Intermediate Oil ($/bbl) Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 215Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 217Q1 217Q2 217Q3 217Q4 WTI-Pess WTI-Base
5 Natural Gas Prices (IHS Global Insight, Inc.): Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Q3 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 215Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 217Q1 217Q2 217Q3 217Q4 PNGHH-Pess PNGHH-Base
6 October BLS Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (%) Washington New Hampshire California Oregon Nevada Idaho Utah Montana Wyoming.2 Colorado North Dakota -2. South Dakota Nebraska Kansas Minnesota Wisconsin Iowa Illinois Missouri Vermont New York Michigan Ohio Indiana Pennsylvania West Virginia Virginia Kentucky District of Columbia Maine Massachusetts Rhode Island Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Tennessee North Carolina Maryland Arizona New Mexico Oklahoma.1 Arkansas South Carolina Texas.4 Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Georgia Alaska Hawaii U.S. = 1.9 Florida -3. to.9.9 to to to 4.79
7 Oklahoma Rotary Rig Count (Baker Hughes) Oklahoma Rig Count
8 Oklahoma Energy Production: Deseasonalized (2:1=1) Natural Gas Oil
9 2Q2 2Q4 21Q2 21Q4 22Q2 22Q4 23Q2 23Q4 24Q2 24Q4 25Q2 25Q4 26Q2 26Q4 27Q2 27Q4 28Q2 28Q4 29Q2 29Q4 21Q2 21Q4 211Q2 211Q4 212Q2 212Q4 213Q2 213Q4 214Q2 214Q4 215Q2 215Q4 216Q2 216Q4 217Q2 217Q4 U.S. and Oklahoma Mining Employment (Annualized %Change) US Mining OK Mining
10 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1 29Q3 21Q1 21Q3 211Q1 211Q3 212Q1 212Q3 213Q1 213Q3 214Q1 214Q3 215Q1 215Q3 216Q1 216Q3 217Q1 217Q3 218Q1 218Q3 219Q1 219Q3 22Q1 22Q3 221Q1 221Q3 222Q1 222Q3 223Q1 223Q3 224Q1 224Q3 225Q1 225Q3 US and Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (Deseasonalized Annualized % change) US Nonfarm Emp OK Nonfarm Emp
11 Pessimistic Scenario: Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment 1,71.94% 1.%.9% t h o u s a n d s 1,7 1,69 1,68 1,67 1,66.22%.76%.8%.7%.6%.5%.4%.3%.2%.1% 1,65 215Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 217Q1 217Q2 217Q3 217Q4 Difference OK Nonfarm Emp-Pess OK Nonfarm Emp-Base.%
12 Oklahoma Nonfarm Employment Growth Rate Comparison: No Decline in Energy Prices 1,71 3 1,7 2.5 t h o u s a n d s 1,69 1,68 1,67 1,66 1, p e r c e n t -1 1, ,63 214Q4 215Q1 215Q2 215Q3 215Q4 216Q1 216Q2 216Q3 216Q4 OK %Chg-214:3 Energy OK %Chg-Decline U.S. %Chg OK Nonfarm Employment-214:3 Energy OK Nonfarm Employment-Decline -2
13 Mining Electrical Equipment State Government Total Nonfarm Employment Other Durable Goods Contract Construction Fabricated Metals Manufacturing Nonelectrical Machinery Wholesale Trade Transportation & Public Utilities Information Real Estate Professional, Scientific, and Transportation Equipment Food Manufacturing Plastics and Rubber Manufacturing Other Nondurable Goods Retail Trade Financial Activities Mgt of Companies & Enterprises Admin., Support, & Waste Mgt. Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance Accomm., Food Services, Leisure Other Services Local Government Federal Government % Growth Oklahoma Sector Employment Red: Energy Dominated; Purple: U.S. Industry Dominated; Blue: No Energy Influence
14 -11.2 Sector Change in Oklahoma Employment (%): 216 Construction Educational Services Professional, Scientific, and Technical Leisure Health Care & Social Assistance Admin., Support, & Waste Mgt. Local Govt Wholesale Trade Financial Activities Nonfarm Employment Retail Trade Other Services Transportation & Public Utilities Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Plastics and Rubber Manufacturing Federal Government Real Estate Other Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Electrical Equipment Manufacturing Mgt of Companies & Enterprises State Government Fabricated Metals Manufacturing Information Machinery Manufacturing Other Durable Goods Manufacturing Mining
15 Sector Change in Oklahoma Employment (Jobs): 216-6,141 Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Leisure Local Govt Nonfarm Employment Professional, Scientific, and Technical Admin., Support, & Waste Mgt. Wholesale Trade Educational Services Financial Activities Retail Trade Electrical Equipment Manufacturing Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Plastics and Rubber Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Other Services Other Nondurable Goods Manufacturing Real Estate Transportation & Public Utilities Federal Government Mgt of Companies & Enterprises Information Fabricated Metals Manufacturing State Government Other Durable Goods Manufacturing Machinery Manufacturing Mining 2,5 3,193-8, -6, -4, -2, 2, 4,
16 Oklahoma Population Growth Rates (%) P o p u l a t i o n E m p l o y m e n t -2 Actual Growth Rate Predicted Growth Rate Relative Oklahoma Nonfarm Emp Growth
17 Oklahoma Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Employment Growth (%) 8 3 U n e m p l o y m e n t Unemployment rate Nonfarm Employment Population
18 Oklahoma Personal Income Growth (%) Total Personal Income Wages and Salaries Dividends, Interest & Rent Nonfarm Proprietor Income Other Labor Income Transfer Payments
19 Oklahoma Total Nonfarm Employment Growth Rates (%) Tulsa OKC OK ROS
20 Thank you for your attention
21 216 Oklahoma Economic Outlook Conference December 8, 215 Oklahoma City Follow us as we live tweet the #216EconOutlook Look for us on Facebook Text questions to:
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