No Place But Up Interest Rates Rents, Prices Real Estate and the Economy
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1 No Place But Up Interest Rates Rents, Prices Real Estate and the Economy But Not Oil Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company
2 Mega Themes More Jobs Than Ever in History Retail Boom Just Starting Residential Renting vs. Owning Entry Level Homebuyers Returning Inflation Potential Overweight in Real Estate Terrorism is Here to Stay
3 Percent Change in Loan Applications the First-Full Week of CFPB-TRID
4 U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted % Prior 12 Months 142,000 Net New Jobs in September Million in Past 12-Months 129 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
5 U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted % 12 Months '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '
6 Texas Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted 12,000 11,750 11,500 11,250 11,000 10,750 10,500 10, % Prior 12 Months 224,800 Net New Jobs in Prior 12 Months 10,000 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
7 Texas Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Recession Thousands of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, % 12 Months '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 800
8 State Job Growth - 12 Months Ending September 2015 State Percent State Percent State Percent Utah 3.73% Kentucky 1.76% Ohio 0.92% South Carolina 3.25% Delaware 1.73% Missouri 0.79% Washington 3.06% Maryland 1.70% New Mexico 0.78% Idaho 3.05% Colorado 1.67% Pennsylvania 0.65% Florida 2.99% Tennessee 1.65% Vermont 0.64% California 2.82% Connecticut 1.62% Rhode Island 0.63% Nevada 2.82% South Dakota 1.58% Kansas 0.62% Oregon 2.80% Alabama 1.58% New Hampshire 0.60% North Carolina 2.59% Iowa 1.53% Montana 0.60% Indiana 2.21% New York 1.39% Nebraska 0.56% Arizona 2.17% Dist of Columbia 1.36% Illinois 0.46% Georgia 2.01% Minnesota 1.32% Oklahoma 0.18% Michigan 2.01% Hawaii 1.26% Louisiana 0.13% Massachusetts 1.96% Mississippi 1.06% Alaska -0.06% Texas 1.93% New Jersey 1.00% Wyoming -0.89% Arkansas 1.89% Virginia 0.97% West Virginia -1.49% Wisconsin 1.88% Maine 0.96% North Dakota -1.57%
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10 Texas Job Growth Rates Prior 12 Months Percent Jobs - Thousands MSA-Division Change Gain Total Abilene 1.02% Amarillo 0.26% Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos 3.05% Beaumont-Port Arthur 3.18% Brownsville - Harlingen 1.31% College Station - Bryan 1.14% Corpus Christi 1.43% Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington 3.25% ,400.7 Dallas-Plano-Irving Metro Div 3.62% ,397.2
11 Texas Job Growth Rates Prior 12 Months Percent Jobs - Thousands MSA-Division Change Gain Total El Paso 1.08% Ft Worth-Arlington Metro Div. 2.40% ,004.7 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land 1.16% ,983.0 Killeen-Temple 2.01% Laredo 1.92% Longview 1.15% Lubbock 2.63% McAllen Edinburg-Mission 3.61%
12 Texas Job Growth Rates Prior 12 Months Percent Jobs - Thousands MSA-Division Change Gain Total Midland 2.90% Odessa 3.25% San Angelo 1.85% San Antonio-New Braunfels 3.68% Sherman-Denison 1.11% Tyler 2.12% Waco 1.70% Wichita Falls -2.05% (1.2) 57.3
13 U.S. Existing Home Sales & Median Prices Sales on a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate Median Price $ Thousands Home Sales Millions $240 $225 Tax Incentive $ $195 $180 4 $165 $150 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14 '15 3 National Association of REALTORS Median Price Homes Sales
14 U.S. Existing Home Sales Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
15 U.S. Existing Home Sales Median Price Not Seasonally Adjusted - $Thousands $ $225 $200 $175 $150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
16 U.S. Existing Home Sales Months Inventory Seasonally Adjusted '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 National Association of REALTORS Normal
17 Texas Residential Home Sales Number Per Month 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
18 Texas Residential Home Sales Average Number of Closings Per Month for Prior 12 Months 26, % 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
19 Texas Residential Home Sales Median Price $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
20 Texas Residential Home Sales Median Price 12 Month Moving Average $200, % $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
21 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15f Texas Residential Building Permits Number of Dwelling Units 250, ,000 Single Family Multi 150, ,000 50, ,462 Permits is the past 12 months, 224,800 New Jobs 1.35 New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit
22 Texas Population Forecasts
23 Texas Population Forecast Migration Scenario 10-Year Growth Age Growth Percent ,005,834 2,179,887 2,380, , % ,988,878 2,067,542 2,247, , % ,077,796 2,152,675 2,233, , % ,046,689 2,274,641 2,368, , % ,033,564 2,224,693 2,492, , % ,957,574 2,206,673 2,432, , % ,994,939 2,115,832 2,395, , % ,874,670 2,131,261 2,266, , % ,855,532 1,977,411 2,254, , % Texas State Data Center
24 Texas Population Forecast Migration Scenario 10-Year Growth Age Growth Percent ,751,261 1,926,609 2,058, , % ,791,030 1,789,434 1,977, , % ,684,622 1,809,257 1,815, , % ,407,281 1,671,980 1,803, , % ,143,187 1,375,699 1,641, , % ,001 1,081,697 1,308, , % , , , , % , , , , % , , , , % Texas State Data Center
25 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
26 Light Weight Vehicle Sales Millions Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Bureau of Economic Analysis
27 Household Debt Service as a Percent of Household Disposable Income Percent '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 FED Board of Governors, BEA
28 U.S. Property Returns Q TTM 12-Month Property Return All 12.38% Hotel 13.30% Apartment 11.13% Retail 12.93% Industrial 14.04% Office 12.28% Tax-Exempt Investments All Cash Purchase Cash Flow + Value Change Only Pay Property Taxes $443 Billion of Properties 6,971 Properties Source: NCREIF
29 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months +25.1% $600 $500 $400 $300 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up 15.6% Below 2007 Peak $200 $100 $0-88.1% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
30 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume Number of Transactions Trailing 12 Months 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up +12.9% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
31 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume Average Per Transaction $ Millions TTM $25 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
32 Texas Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $50 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up $40 $30 $20 $10 $0-88.5% Peak To Trough '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
33 10-Year Treasury Rate
34 30-Year Residential Rates Expect 5.6 to 6 Percent in Next 12 Months 4.7% 4.5% 4.3% 3.79% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 5-Jan 10-May 13-Sep 17-Jan 23-May 26-Sep 30-Jan 5-Jun 16-Oct 19-Feb 25-Jun
35 Refinance and Purchase Lending Volumes $ Billions Percent Change Q = Lending Volumes Compared to Q August 2015 Forecast Refinance Lending Volumes - $ Billions Percent Fannie Freddie Change Mae Mac MBA Average Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % 15-Q % 15-Q % 16-Q % 16-Q % 16-Q % 16-Q % 15-Q2 0.0% 15-Q3-31.8% 15-Q4-50.0% 16-Q1-49.6% 16-Q2-48.4% 16-Q3-52.9% 16-Q4-60.7%
36 Annualized Averages $ Billions Refinance Purchase Percent Change $ $ % Percent Change $ $ % Average Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA Averages as of August 2015
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40 Oil Prices & Unemployment Rates WTI Crude $140 $120 $100 $80 US Texas Unemployment Rates $60 $40 $20 $0 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '
41 Natural Gas Price Delivered to Commercial Customers vs. WTI Crude Oil -- Gas Per 1,000 Cubic Feet, Oil Per Barrel Natural Gas Oil $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0
42 U.S. Dollars - Millions Month Exports Imports Balance Jan-15 9, , ,606.4 Feb-15 8, , ,540.3 Mar-15 9, , ,234.7 Apr-15 9, , ,478.3 May-15 8, , ,452.4 Jun-15 9, , ,457.3 TOTAL , , ,769.3 Annualized $ 111,805 $ 453,344 $ (341,539) Source: U.S. Census Bureau U.S. China Trade
43 China Impact on U.S. Economy U.S GDP $17.84 Trillion (Q Annualized Rate) Purchases by China of U.S. Goods $111.8 Billion (2015 est) Impact = 6/10ths of 1 Percent of U.S. GPD
44 2016 Economic Concerns Election Year - Politicians Government Revenues & Regulations GSEs Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Renewables Negative Impacts Inflation & Interest Rates Newton s Third Law of Motion
45 Telling It Like It Is Ted Twitter DrTCJ blog.stewart.com/ted It is What it Is Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Stewart Title Guaranty Company
For Every Action There is An Equal and Opposite Reaction Newton Was an Economist - The Outlook for Real Estate and the Economy
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