Ted C. Jones Chief Economist. Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
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1 Ted C. Jones Chief Economist Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
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3 When Getting On An Airplane, the Person On the Aisle Always Gets There First
4 Things Change
5 Jobs are Everything Period
6 U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted % Prior 12 Months 2.64 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
7 U.S. Net Job Gains Trailing 12-Months Jobs - Millions '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
8 U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs The Blood Pressure Test of the U.S. Economy Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted +1.89% Past 12 Months Hurricanes Harvey & Irma '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '
9 3.2% 3.9% 12-Month Income Increase Largest Since 2009 Unemployment Rate 48-Year Low (was 3.7% last month 49 Yrs)
10 When You Get a Raise You Are Simply Broke at a Higher Level Dr Ivan Schmedemann, Professor Emeritus
11 90% $80 Pay Less Taxes Billion Extra Money Spent on Real Estate Annually Due to Tax Cuts
12 State Job Growth Months Ending December 2018 Nevada 3.85% North Carolina 1.96% New York 1.27% Arizona 3.37% South Carolina 1.95% Michigan 1.25% Texas 3.17% Tennessee 1.95% Pennsylvania 1.25% Utah 3.11% Virginia 1.95% Nebraska 1.24% Washington 3.09% Maryland 1.87% Connecticut 1.18% Wyoming 2.82% Oregon 1.85% Illinois 1.17% Colorado 2.81% Massachusetts 1.81% Louisiana 1.11% New Hampshire 2.67% California 1.67% Kentucky 1.11% Florida 2.67% Wisconsin 1.64% Minnesota 1.09% Georgia 2.54% Oklahoma 1.52% Montana 0.99% New Mexico 2.38% New Jersey 1.49% Iowa 0.98% Delaware 2.24% Hawaii 1.45% Mississippi 0.95% Alabama 2.16% Indiana 1.43% Maine 0.69% North Dakota 2.11% Rhode Island 1.43% West Virginia 0.63% Ohio 2.11% Kansas 1.42% Dist of Columbia 0.29% South Dakota 2.01% Arkansas 1.38% Vermont -0.06% Idaho 1.99% Missouri 1.35% Alaska -0.12%
13 Taxes or Lack There of Influences Where People Live & Businesses Relocate Taxes Matter
14
15 Anchorage MSA Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted Percent Prior 12 Months 700 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
16 Anchorage Supersector Job Growth Analysis -- December 2018 Not Seasonally Adjusted 12-Months 5 Years Total Net Net Jobs Percent of New New Thousands All Jobs Jobs Percent Jobs Percent Employment Supersector Dec 2018 Today 5-Years Ago Thousands Change Thousands Change Total % 99.8% % (5.2) -2.9% Mining & Logging +Oil & Gas % 2.0% % (0.6) -16.7% Construction % 5.1% % (0.5) -5.5% Manufacturing % 1.3% (0.2) -11.1% (0.7) -30.4% Trade-Transport-Utilities % 21.4% - 0.0% (1.1) -2.9% Information % 2.5% (0.2) -4.8% (0.5) -11.1% Financial Activites % 4.6% (0.2) -2.5% (0.4) -4.9% Professional and Business Service % 12.3% % (2.5) -11.4% Education and Health Services % 16.5% % % Leisure & Hospitality % 10.5% (0.7) -3.6% - 0.0% Other % 3.7% % % Government % 20.0% (0.2) -0.6% (1.0) -2.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Stewart Title Guaranty Company
17 Not Seasonally Adjusted Percent of 12-Month All Jobs Job Growth Employment Supersector USA Anchorage USA Anchorage Mining & Logging (+ Oil & Gas) 0.5% 1.7% 8.4% 11.1% Construction 4.8% 5.0% 4.1% 1.2% Manufacturing 8.5% 0.9% 2.3% -11.1% Trade-Transport-Utilities 19.0% 21.4% 1.3% 0.0% Information 1.8% 2.3% -0.8% -4.8% Financial Activities 5.7% 4.5% 1.3% -2.5% Professional and Business Service 14.1% 11.2% 2.8% 3.2% Education and Health Services 15.9% 18.1% 2.2% 1.3% Leisure & Hospitality 10.7% 10.8% 2.0% -3.6% Other 3.9% 3.9% 1.2% 6.3% Government 15.1% 20.0% 0.4% -0.6% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Stewart Title Guaranty Company
18 MSA & Division Job Growth Months Ending December Months Percent Jobs-Thousands Rank MSA-Division State Change New Total 427 Yuba City California -0.90% (0.4) Pine Bluff Arkansas -0.91% (0.3) Jackson Michigan -1.02% (0.6) Fairbanks Alaska -1.06% (0.4) Elmira New York -1.09% (0.4) Beckley West Virginia -1.11% (0.5) Charleston West Virginia -1.11% (1.3) Lima Ohio -1.12% (0.6) Victoria Texas -1.23% (0.5) Panama City Florida -1.40% (1.2) 84.7
19 U.S. Existing Home Sales & Median Prices Sales Trailing 12 Months Median Price $ Thousands $280 $260 $240 $220 $200 Home Sales 12-Months Millions $180 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Median Price Homes Sales 4.8
20 Millennials Are the Future and the Present
21 13.6% Percent of U.S. Population Aged % Percent of Homes Purchased Past 12-Months
22 There is No Such Thing as a National Real Estate Market (Or Economy) TINSTAANREM Axiom -- Ted C Jones
23 Anchorage Home Sales Sales Trailing 12 Months Home Sales 12-Months $360 $350 $340 $330 $320 $310 $ '15 '16 '17 '18 3,100 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700
24 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ' Anchorage Residential Closings Number Per Month
25 Anchorage Residential Closings Average Number Per Month For Prior 12 Months '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
26 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Anchorage Residential Building Permits Number of Dwelling Units 3,000 2,500 Single Family Multi 2,000 1,500 1,
27 No Where is It Written That Home Values Will Always Go Up The Same Goes for Rent Also
28 There are Three Kinds of People That Can Buy a Home Without a Job People with Gray Hair, Blue Hair or No Hair: Retirees
29 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
30 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 E-Commerce Sales Percent of Total Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted
31 Omnichannel Marketing om ni chan nel /ˈämnəˌCHanl/ adjective adjective: omnichannel; adjective: omni-channel denoting or relating to a type of retail that integrates the different methods of shopping available to consumers (e.g., online, in a physical store, or by phone). "80 percent of sales for omnichannel retailers happen in the offline world"
32 Omnichannel Marketing The number of people who shopped both online and in-store Cyber Monday was up nearly 40% over 2017 Multichannel shoppers outspent singlechannel shoppers by up to $93 on average 49% of all e-commerce traffic came from smartphones
33 Light Weight Vehicle Sales Millions Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Bureau of Economic Analysis Cash For Clunkers
34 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $ Percent Year-Over-Year $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
35 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alaska Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Millions Trailing 12 Months $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
36 Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates Percent 12-Month Moving Average 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 US Alaska
37 National Average Apartment Rents
38 Fed Funds Rate Up 25 bp to 1.75% to 2.0% Percent June 13, 2018 $2.2 Billion More Per Year in Just Credit Card
39 30-Year Fixed-Rate Forecast December 2018 Year Fannie Freddie MBA Average % 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% % 4.6% 5.0% 4.8% % 5.1% 5.0% % 5.1% 5.1%
40 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Federal Debt Total Public Debt $ Trillions St Louis Federal reserve
41 Average Monthly Fed Funds Rate Percent Percent Percent Times Greater 0 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
42 Federal Debt Interest Payments +30% March 2017 Vs % March 2018 Vs 2017
43 Latin for It s Going to Cost More.
44 U.S. & China Trade $ Millions $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 US Purchases From China China Purchases From US '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
45 What the U.S. Bought from China in 2017 $ Billions
46 What the China Bought from U.S. in 2017 $ Billions
47 Warren Buffett on Cryptocurrencies It s not a currency. It does not meet the test of a currency. I wouldn t be surprised if it s not around in 10 or 20 years. Stay away from it it s a mirage.
48 $4,758 Electricity Cost to Mine 1 Bitcoin In U.S.
49 1 st Time in 75 Years U.S. is a Net Oil Exporter
50 4-Jan-02 6-Dec-02 7-Nov-03 8-Oct-04 9-Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul-18 North American Drilling Rig Counts Number of Operating Rigs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,
51 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 Alaska Drilling Rig Counts Number of Operating Rigs
52 Oil $50-$
53 Twitter DrTCJ
54 2019 Economic Outlook Strong Economy Growing Jobs & Wages Rising Interest Rates Rising Home Prices (Albeit at a Lower Pace) Cheap (But Profitable) Energy Manufacturing Comeback Continues
55 Paper Straw Manufacturer In the U.S. We use 500 Million Straws Daily
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61 Global Residential Market Data
62 Ted C. Jones Chief Economist Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
Real Estate Forecast 2019
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For Every Action There is An Equal and Opposite Reaction Newton Was an Economist - The Outlook for Real Estate and the Economy
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Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist
Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist Hurricanes U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted 150 145 140 135 130 1.41% Prior 12 Months 2.05 Million Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 125 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11
Real Estate Forecast 2017
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76 Million Boomers. 83 Million Millennials 19 to Million Millennials 16 to 35
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No Place But Up Interest Rates Rents, Prices Real Estate and the Economy
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