76 Million Boomers. 83 Million Millennials 19 to Million Millennials 16 to 35
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2 76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to Million Millennials 16 to 35
3 Top Millennial Population Growth Markets 2005 to Month Population Job Rank City, State Growth Growth 1 Charlotte, North Carolina 30.7% 2.72% 2 Houston, Texas 17.4% 0.54% 3 Austin, Texas 16.4% 2.76% 4 Seattle, Washington 15.3% 3.64% 5 Omaha, Nebraska 14.3% 1.38% 6 Nashville, Tennessee 13.8% 2.83% 7 Indianapolis, Indiana 12.5% 2.25% 8 Tulsa, Oklahoma 11.0% 0.20% 9 Orlando, Florida 10.5% 4.73% 10 Columbus, Ohio 9.7% 2.00% Source: apartment list
4 500 Millennial Poll Results 75 Percent Could Live Without the Call Function on Their Device
5 500 Millennial Poll Results 76 Percent Prefer Texting To Talking as it Fits Better in Their Schedule
6 500 Millennial Poll Results 63 Percent State Texting Is Less Disruptive Thank Talking
7 500 Millennial Poll Results 19 Percent Admitted to Never Checking Voice Mails
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9 Non-Renewals - Dead on Arrival Mortgage Insurance Deductibility Residential Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Residential Energy Savings Renewables Wind and Solar ObamaCare - Some Form, However
10 Soon-to-Happen Tax Changes????? Corporate Tax Cut 35 Percent to 15 Percent US Overseas Corporate Profit Repatriation Carried Interest Elimination ObamaCare 3.8% Investment Income Tax Cut Capital Gains Tax Cut Middle Class Tax Changes Some Up, Some Down
11 OECD Corporate Tax Rates Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada Germany 2,640 Basis Point Decline 62.6 Percent Tax Cut
12 OECD Corporate Tax Rates Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada Canada 1,410 Basis Point Decline 48.4 Percent Tax Cut
13 OECD Corporate Tax Rates Germany 42.2% 35.0% U.S. France 37.8% 34.4% France Italy 37.0% 30.0% Australia U.S. 35.0% 27.5% Italy Spain 25.0% 25.0% Spain Australia 34.0% 23.3% Japan Japan 30.0% 22.0% S Korea U.K 30.0% 20.0% U.K. Canada 29.1% 15.8% Germany S Korea 28.0% 15.0% Canada U.K. 1,010 Basis Point Decline 33.3 Percent Tax Cut
14 Mega Themes More Jobs Than Ever in History Retail Boom 14 Years to Run Entry Level Homebuyers Returning High-End Housing Retreating Inflation Potential -- UPS +4.9% Dec 26th Commercial Sales Cooling
15 76 Million Boomers 83 Million Millennials 19 to Million Millennials 16 to 35
16 2016 US Stock Market Performance 13%+ Dow Jones Industrial 9.5% S&P % Nasdaq Composite 8.5% Gold 14.9% Silver 45.2% Crude Oil
17 U.S. Jobs Jobs (Millions) Seasonally Adjusted % Prior 12 Months 2,157,00 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
18 U.S. Net Job Gains Trailing 12-Months Jobs - Millions '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
19 U.S. Leisure & Hospitality Jobs Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted % Past 12 Months 3.04% a Year Ago '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '
20 Job-Growth - 12 Months Ending November 2016 Florida 3.22% Tennessee 1.90% Kentucky 0.82% Washington 3.06% Dist of Columbia 1.83% Arkansas 0.72% Utah 3.02% Texas 1.77% Illinois 0.72% Oregon 2.94% West Virginia 1.43% Pennsylvania 0.66% Nevada 2.74% Indiana 1.30% Iowa 0.64% Hawaii 2.45% Delaware 1.23% New Jersey 0.53% Idaho 2.38% Montana 1.17% Maine 0.44% South Dakota 2.37% Rhode Island 1.13% Vermont 0.13% California 2.32% Maryland 1.13% Connecticut 0.08% Georgia 2.28% New York 1.12% Mississippi -0.21% South Carolina 2.24% Minnesota 1.11% New Mexico -0.28% New Hampshire 2.21% Arizona 1.10% Kansas -0.28% Colorado 2.16% Wisconsin 1.05% Louisiana -0.32% Missouri 2.05% Nebraska 1.00% Alaska -0.86% Massachusetts 2.00% Virginia 0.96% Oklahoma -0.93% Michigan 1.96% Alabama 0.95% North Dakota -1.54% North Carolina 1.92% Ohio 0.91% Wyoming -3.09%
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22 Columbus MSA Jobs Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted 1,075 1,050 1,025 1, % Prior 12 Months 18,600 Net New Jobs in Past 12-Months 900 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
23 Columbus MSA Net Job Gains Trailing 12-Months Jobs - Thousands '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
24 U.S. Existing Home Sales & Median Prices Sales on a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate Median Price $ Thousands $250 $230 $210 $190 $170 Tax Incentives Home Sales Millions TRID $150 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14 '15 '16 Median Price Homes Sales 3 National Association of REALTORS
25 U.S. Existing Home Sales Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
26 U.S. Existing Home Sales Median Price Not Seasonally Adjusted - $Thousands $250 $225 $200 $ $150 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec National Association of REALTORS
27 Columbus Home Sales & Median Prices Sales on a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate Average Price $ Thousands Home Sales TTM $225 Tax Incentives 30,000 $200 27,500 $175 $150 $125 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 14 '15 '16 Columbus Realtors Median Price Homes Sales 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500
28 Columbus Home Sales Sales Not Seasonally Adjusted - Thousands 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1, ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
29 Columbus Home Sales Median Price Not Seasonally Adjusted - $Thousands $ $180 $160 $140 $120 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
30 Columbus MSA Jobs Vs Residential Building Permits New Jobs Per New Permit Normal is 1.25 to 1.5 New Jobs Months to to to Ending Jun
31 U.S. Real Retail & Food Service Sales $ Billions Seasonally Adjusted $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
32 Light Weight Vehicle Sales Millions Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Bureau of Economic Analysis
33 Fed Funds Target Rate Increases Basis Months Number Points Duration Increases Increase June June June May March February Feb Average Median Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
34 Current Rates Rates November 1, Year Treasury 1.81% 30-Year Residential 3.54% Month Outlook Rate Increase Impact - Basis Points Lower Quartile /3rd Median Quartile Treasury Forecasts Months Lower Quartile 2.97% 1/3rd 3.54% Median Quartile 4.12% 30-Year Residential Rates Months Lower Quartile 4.71% 1/3rd 5.28% Median Quartile 5.86% * 30-Year Residential = 10-Yr +174 bp
35 Refinance Lending $ Billions MBA Percent Fannie Mae Percent Year Refi Change Year Refi Change 2016 $ $ $ % 2017 $ % 2018 $ % 2018 $ % 2019 $ %
36 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Trillions Trailing 12 Months $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 Q % Year-Over-Year $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
37 Columbus Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume $ Billions Trailing 12 Months $3 $3 $2 $2 $1 $1 Q % Year-Over-Year $0 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up
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39 Office Asking Rents
40 Industrial
41 Retail
42 Hotels Mid West
43 Columbus Scorecard A B C D F Retail Industrial Apartments Office Hotel
44 Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates Percent All Property Types, 4 Quarter Moving Average 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up 16.7% '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 US Manhattan Columbus
45 Income Approach to Valuation Value = Income Capitalization Rate
46 Commercial Real Estate Cap Rates & 10-Year Treasury Percent All Property Types, End of Quarter TTM Treasury Rate Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 10-Year Treasury TTM Cap Rates
47 Correlation Coefficients - Cap Rates & T-Bonds Quarterly Data - Q Q Correlation Coefficeints Pearson's Product Spearman's Moment Rank Correlation Coefficient % % P-Value % % Probabilty 99.99% 99.99%
48 Commercial Capitalization Rates & TTM 10 Year T-Bonds Quarterly - Q Q Year Spread Capitalization Treasury Basis Rate Rate Points Average 7.21% 3.46% Median 6.88% 3.49% Maximum 8.96% 5.32% Minimum 6.19% 1.61% Source: Real Capital Analystics, Federal Reserve
49 Commercial Capitalization Rates Q Cap Rate 6.29% 10-Year T-Bond Basis Point Spread Currently 12 to 40 Basis Points Off Norm Value Compression to 6.0 Percent
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51 Days to Drill & Fracture 30 Months Ago Days Now 19 Days
52
53 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price Recession $ Per Barrel $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 0 $0
54 4-Jan-02 6-Dec-02 7-Nov-03 8-Oct-04 9-Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep-16 North American Drilling Rig Counts Number of Operating Rigs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,
55 Oil & Gas Exploration Companies Will Boost Spending 7 Percent In 2017
56 $550 Savings Per Driver Vs 2014
57 2017 Issues, Positives & Concerns Return of ARMs & Second Loans Faltering High-End Residential Sales Retracting Commercial Sales Inflation UPS +4.9% December 26 th Midwest Land Values Oil Sub-$60.
58 This is the best oil downturn Houston may have ever seen. Ted C. Jones
59
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