First Coast Outer Beltway

Transcription

1 First Coast Outer Beltway Public-Private Partnership Forum May 5, 2010

2 Introduction The purpose of this Forum is to have an exchange of information between FDOT and the Public- Private Partnership industry. 2

3 3 Project Information

4 Project Location 4

5 Project Need Provide Additional Capacity Enhance Public Safety Accommodate Current and Future Growth Accommodate Local and Regional Plans

6 Project Need ShandsSR Bridge 16 Shands over St. Bridge Johns River 6

7 Project Need Branan Field Road north of SR-21 7

8 Project Need Evacuation Zones Evacuation Routes Legend Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 8

9 Project Need Population Density

10 Project Need Population Density

11 Project Need Project is listed in the North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (NFTPO) Long Range Transportation Plan and Transportation Improvement Plan NFTPO has the project listed as top priority 11

12 What has changed since 2007 Forum? Ad Valorem and Intangibles Tax Status Clarified by State Statute (1) Investment in Corridor Branan Field Chaffee Road Interchange at I-10 Constructed Branan Field Chaffee Road Plantation Oaks Overpass Under Construction 12

13 What has changed since 2007 Forum? 13 I-10 Interchange at Branan Field-Chaffee Road

14 What has changed since 2007 Forum? Branan Field-Chaffee Road Plantation Oaks Overpass

15 What has changed since 2007 Forum? 4.7 Miles of Right-of-Way Donated in Clay County Environmental and Preliminary Design have progressed 15

16 Design Year 2035 Number of Lanes Needed I-95 to SR 16: Six Lanes SR 16 to SR 21: Four Lanes SR 21 to I-10: Six Lanes 16

17 Typical Cross Section Bridge Section over St. Johns River (shared-use path on north bridge) 17

18 Estimated Project Costs Segment South (I-95 to US 17) Middle (US 17 to SR 21) North (SR 21 to I-10) Totals Construction $545,783,437 $351,665,802 $314,014,707 $1,211,463,946 Right-of-Way (includes Right-of-Way Contingency) $141,000,000 $280,500,000 $0 $421,500,000 Mitigation $51,335,700 $16,931,300 $34,745,100 $103,012,100 Design / Inspection $51,849,427 $33,408,251 $29,831,397 $115,089,075 Miscellaneous $35,475,924 $22,858,276 $20,410,956 $78,745,156 Totals $825,444,488 $705,363,629 $399,002,160 $1,929,810,277 Note: Above costs are for 4 / 6 lanes from I-95 to I-10 18

19 Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Total Project Cost of $1.9 Billion FDOT has invested $200 million Branan-Field Chaffee (BFC) Road right-of-way BFC Road / I-10 Interchange Branan Field Chaffee Road Plantation Oaks Overpass under construction 19

20 Potential Cost Reductions Four versus Six Lanes Typical Section Adjustments to Reduce Wetland Impacts and Fill Dirt Phased Implementation Open to Suggestions 20

21 St. Johns River Crossing Project Segment Environmental Review Underway Draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) circulated January 8, 2010 Public Hearings held February / March 2010 Record of Decision expected early 2011

22 Branan Field-Chaffee Road Segment Environmental Review Record of Decision (ROD) for four lanes complete Type II Categorical Exclusion underway for six lanes (completion anticipated early 2011)

23 Permits Required Wetlands, Stormwater Quality and Quantity Impacts Environmental Resource Permit from St. Johns River Water Management District Wetland Impacts Individual Permit (Dredge and Fill) from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Bridges over Navigable Waters Bridge Permit from the U.S. Coast Guard Stormwater (Erosion and Dewatering) National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit from Florida Department of Environmental Protection Impacts to Gopher Tortoise Burrows and Habitat Gopher Tortoise Relocation Permit from Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission 23

24 Permitting Overview A total of 850 acres of wetlands will be directly impacted by the First Coast Outer Beltway Project Wetland mitigation will be needed in Regulatory Basins 4, 5 and 8: Basin acres Basin acres Basin acres 24

25 Permitting Overview

26 26 Right-of-Way Overview

27 Right-of-Way Right-of-Way Process Federal Uniform Act FDOT will acquire right-of-way Present status Right-of-way cost estimate Possible innovations 27

28 Right-of-Way Right-of-Way Constraints Federal Uniform Act Court receptiveness to Public Private Partnership concept Caution on innovation 28

29 Right-of-Way Right-of-Way Contact: J.B. Jordan District Right-of-Way Manager 1109 South Marion Avenue Lake City, FL Telephone:

30 Traffic and Revenue Study 30

31 Fishkind Socioeconomic Status Data 31

32 Assignments Economic Forecasts for Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Develop detailed socioeconomic status (SES) projections at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level for Duval, St. Johns, and Clay Counties through year 2090 Provide TAZ projections for phasing scenarios 32

33 Florida and Jacksonville Growth Florida is the 4 th largest state in the nation; 2009 total population of 18.8 million The Jacksonville MSA grew faster than Tampa / St. Petersburg or Miami / Ft. Lauderdale from Jacksonville MSA population of 1.4 million Annual population growth in Jacksonville MSA averaged 27,200 since year 2000 Annual employment growth in Jacksonville MSA averaged 2,500 since year

34 Metro Jacksonville Short Term Economic Outlook 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Growth 10,000 0 (10,000) (20,000) (30,000) (40,000) Population Employment 34

35 35 Florida Will Recover From Recession, Paradigm Shift to 250,000

36 36 Florida Single-Family Closing Volumes and Pricing

37 Florida s Competitive Concerns Favor Jacksonville Some attractive areas built out not Jacksonville Unbridled impact fees not Jacksonville Failure of Growth Management at State level Expensive property insurance market Two-tiered property tax system High cost/duplication local government services (police, fire, EMS, planning) not Jacksonville 37

38 Jacksonville Metro Area Permitted Residential DRI Capacity Permitted Residential Development of Regional Impact (DRI) Capacity = 87,000 units 38

39 Major Drivers for the Jacksonville MSA End of the Paper Mill Industry Proximity of Airport and Seaport Defense and Military Mayport and NAS Jax large and stable Cecil Field Redevelopment Large airside infrastructure supports high technology jobs 39

40 Major Drivers for the Jacksonville MSA Competitive strengths continue in finance, insurance, and back office functions Increasingly attractive to retirees 40

41 Approach to Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) Analysis GIS Based Study Existing and Future Land Use Analysis by TAZ Acreage Capacity Analysis less Wetlands, Conservation Growth/absorption forecast through 2090, locations constrained by available land and capacity Existing and Proposed DRIs/PUDs Included 41

42 Approach to TAZ Analysis Remaining developable lands built out according to generalized assumptions Employment /Population ratio guidance Long term employment forecast by type according to historic mix Employment locations based on existing job centers and designated land use 42

43 43 Variation in Build Out Assumptions

44 Sub-County Development Assumptions Estimated Duval County Residential Density and Buildout Levels Res AG Description Density Density NE Quadrant of County % % % % NW Q uad O utside of I-295 & % % % % SW Quad West of FCOB NW Quadrant Inside of I % % % % SE Quadrant of County % % % % SW Quadrant West of I-295 and % % % % East of FCO B SW Quadrant East of I % % % % S ource: Fishkind and Associates, Inc. Es tim a ted St. Jo hns C ou nty R es ide ntia l Density and Buildout Levels Res AG Description Density Density N of CR 208 & St. Aug ustine % % % % S of C R % % % % S ource: Fishkind and Associates, Inc. E stimate d C lay C oun ty Re sid en tia l Density and Buildout Levels Res AG Description Density Density Inside of FCO B % % % % O utside of FCO B % % % % S ource: Fishkind and Associates, Inc. 44

45 Summary of Population and Employment Forecasts Duval St. Johns Clay Total Pop Total Emp Total Pop Total Emp Total Pop Total Emp , , ,087 54, ,485 44, , , ,718 56, ,600 45, , , ,627 74, ,501 53, ,023, , ,768 94, ,787 61, ,087, , , , ,462 67, ,151, , , , ,192 74, ,217, , , , ,004 86, ,282, , , , ,357 97, ,319, , , , , , ,400, , , , , , ,482, , , , , , ,535, , , , , ,399 Note: due to recession, 2010 Employment overstated by 10% in Duval, 6% in St. Johns 45

46 Planning Level Traffic and Revenue Study 46

47 Planning Level Traffic and Revenue Study Wilbur Smith Associates completed Traffic & Revenue (T&R) Studies Initial Preliminary T&R Study was completed in 2008, based on 2005 data T&R Study was updated in Spring 2010, based on current conditions and includes multiple phasing scenarios 47

48 Socioeconomic Forecasts Use of Three Independent Socioeconomic Inputs for Future Years: Northeast Regional Planning Model (NERPM) Data Set Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) University of Florida Fishkind and Associates Independent Forecast 48

49 Estimated Population and Employment Comparison Population Employment 2,000,000 1,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 FKA NERPM 900, ,000 FKA NERPM 1,400, ,000 Population 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 Employment 600, , , , , , , , , Year Year 49

50 Estimated Average Annual Growth Comparison Population Employment 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% FKA NERPM 1.8% 1.6% FKA NERPM 1.4% 1.4% Population 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% Employment 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% % Year Year 50

51 Year 2030 Population Forecast Comparison 51

52 Year 2030 Employment Forecast Comparison 52

53 Transportation Demand Model Use of Northeast Regional Planning Model (NERPM), developed by North Florida Transportation Planning Organization (NFTPO) Base Year 2000 Update of 2009 (Current Study) Validated against 2009 traffic counts 53

54 Transportation Demand Model Future Years Cost Feasible Networks 54

55 55 NERPM Model Zone Map

56 56 NERPM Model Zone Map Inset

57 Toll Model Parameters Toll Diversion Inputs Value of Time (VOT) - used Jacksonville Area Household Income to Estimate VOT Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC) - used Florida Average VOC Tolling Assumptions from $0.05 to $0.30 per mile 57

58 Estimated Annual Gross Toll Revenue Year BEBR Low Fishkind Probable BEBR Med/High BEBR High ,770,700 29,581,900 35,020,700 39,236, ,681,000 77,783,600 87,470,900 99,277, ,950, ,830, ,457, ,387, ,640, ,193, ,188, ,421, ,673, ,623, ,019, ,294, ,196, ,295, ,927, ,183,000 $0.20 per Mile, 4 Lanes from I-95 to I-10 58

59 Estimated Annual Gross Toll Revenue BEBR High BEBR Medium/High Fishkind Probable BEBR Low $0.20 per Mile, 4 Lanes from I-95 to I-10 59

60 60 Summary

61 Project Phasing FDOT is open to different phasing schemes in order to move the construction of this project forward The following phasing scenarios are possibilities: Scenario Description Number of Lanes 1 I-95 to I-10 4 / 6 2 I-95 to I A SR 21 to I B SR 21 to I US 17 to I

62 Summary More information is available since 2007 Forum Reduced project risk Open to innovative ideas to implement project 62