Memorandum Methodology Review. Paul Agnello and Danny Reese, FAMPO. David Jackson, Feng Liu, Jingjing Zang, CS. DATE: September 29, 2016

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1 Memorandum TO: FROM: Paul Agnello and Danny Reese, FAMPO David Jackson, Feng Liu, Jingjing Zang, CS DATE: September 29, 2016 RE: DRAFT GWRC 2045 Socioeconomic Data Development This memorandum provides the methodology, Draft results, and a preliminary recommendation for the 2045 forecast year socioeconomic dataset for the George Washington Region. This represents the first technical step in developing 2045 population, household, and employment projections for the region to support the FAMPO 2045 Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP) Methodology Review Population: 2045 Population Projections Refer to Table 1 and Table 2 for comparisons across multiple data sources by jurisdiction. Six different datasets were reviewed at the jurisdiction-level for year 2010 to 2045: GWRC 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040 LRTP population forecasts developed in 2011 and Woods and Poole (W&P) 2010 to 2045 population projections; in which Spotsylvania County and Fredericksburg City are considered as one jurisdiction. This is the same version of W&P data used to inform VDOT s development of the Virginia statewide model. IHS Global Insight (IHS) 2010, 2012, 2025, and 2040 population projections; and, Moody s 2010 to 2040 population projections. Both data sets present Spotsylvania County and Fredericksburg City as one jurisdiction. This data was used to support economic trends analysis within VTrans2040 and was purchased for that effort by the Virginia Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment (OIPI) Weldon Cooper (WC) population projections. Per WC, while these are the most recent available statewide projections for Virginia, they are now outdated, as they do not reflect demographic change since 2010 and the impact on future population. These forecasts may be updated later this year or in 2017 (they are typically updated 2 or 3 times per decade). Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) Round 8.4 and Round 9.0 (Draft) socioeconomic data. Based on macroeconomic modeling techniques, MWCOG developed base year and forecast year data at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) scale for their entire model domain, which includes the Counties of Stafford and King George, the City of Fredericksburg, and the northern-half of Spotsylvania County. Note that the COG Hampden Lane, Suite 800 Bethesda, MD tel fax

2 future year projections are consistent between Round 8.3, Round 8.4, and Round 9.0 (Round 9.0 also extends the horizon year to 2045, however is not yet formally adopted). Table Population Data Source Comparisons JURISDICTION GWRC (2012) MWCOG MOODY'S IHS W&P WC*** CAROLINE 46,600 37,000 34,853 43,603 35,259 KING GEORGE 44,700 44,707 41,398 35,507 36,942 32,734 SPOTSYLVANIA 240, ,442** 195,545* 196,203* 254,946* 299,632 STAFFORD 251, , , , , ,654 FREDERICKSBURG 33,620 33,610 29,917 REGION 617, , , , ,196 Table Population Growth Rate Comparisons JURISDICTION GWRC EXTENDED MWCOG MWCOG ( ) W&P W&P ( ) CAROLINE 6.5% 46, % KING GEORGE 9.1% 48, % 39, % SPOTSYLVANIA 9.4% 163,436** 5.1% 275,636* 3.4% STAFFORD 9.2% 271, % 297, % FREDERICKSBURG 5.0% 35, % Notes: * Moody s, IHS, and W&P data combine Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg into one jurisdiction. ** MWCOG data only includes projects for the northern half of Spotsylvania County. *** The Weldon Cooper forecasts are considered dated for the purposes of this analysis (2012) and are only presented for comparison purposes. Interpretation In Table 1, across the 2040 population projections, MWCOG 2040 population projections are identical to the GWRC 2040 projections for King George, Stafford, and Fredericksburg. Woods and Poole has slightly higher projections (3 percent) for the entire model region. Moody s and IHS both projected the region to have lower population in over 20 percent lower than GWRC 2040 population projections (both of these datasets also have considerably lower growth rates from 2010 to 2040 indicating that how they count and forecast population, particularly the incorporation of group quarter housing and military on-base housing, is inconsistent with this analysis). In addition, both of these estimates are circa 2013/2014 and neither were used as input into the original 2012 GWRC 2040 projections. Table 2 presents the available 2045 projections and the relative 2040 to 2045 growth rate. There is some variance across the three possible 2045 projections by jurisdiction, particularly Stafford and Spotsylvania

3 Proposed New 2045 Approach The 2012 GWRC data, MWCOG data, W&P data, plus the new 2016 GWRC estimate for 2015 population were all used across four alternative projections for 2045 population. The four alternatives are described below and presented in Figure 1: 2045 Alternative 1 Compared to the 2010 to 2020 growth rate from the 2012 GWRC data, the current estimate of 2015 population is roughly 25,000 persons less for the GWRC region. This alternative assumes that the 2012 GWRC growth rate from 2010 to 2040 is identical for 2015 to 2045, however 2015 starts with 25,000 less persons than anticipated in the 2012 GWRC data. The 2040 to 2045 growth rate is the same as the 2012 GWRC estimated 2030 to 2040 growth rate Alternative 2 This approach makes use of the 2045 forecasts within the MWCOG data for Fredericksburg, King George, and Stafford; the W&P 2045 forecast for Caroline; and, the W&P growth rate, applied to the 2015 base year, for all of Spotsylvania County Alternative 3 This approach assumes that the 2040 projection within the 2012 GWRC forecast remains constant. It then grows the 2040 projection to 2045 using the MWCOG and W&P growth rates by jurisdiction Alternative 4 This approach combines Alternative 1 and Alternative 3. Effectively it suggests the region will make up roughly half of the growth opportunity not achieved during the first half of this decade through 2040 and then continue to grow by the MWCOG and W&P growth rates through Figure GWRC Region Population Projection Alternatives - 3 -

4 Note that in Figure 1, the focus is only on the 2045 regional control totals. Interim year forecasts for 2025 and 2035 will rely on similar information regarding growth rates within the COG and W&P datasets. Table 3 presents the total population by jurisdiction for the four 2045 forecast alternatives and Figure 2 presents the totals and share of the regional total for each jurisdiction by forecast alternative. Generally the proportions in Alt 1, Alt. 3, and Alt. 4 are very similar. These proportions also compare closely to the 2012 GWRC 2040 forecasts. The primary difference in Alt. 2 is that both the MWCOG and W&P forecasted growth rates for Spotsylvania are lower than the 2012 GWRC growth rates, while Stafford is higher. A review of the most recent local comprehensive plan forecasts was also conducted as a point of comparison for this analysis. Note, some of these comprehensive plans, particularly those developed in that quoted Weldon Cooper Center forecasts, include forecasts that are now considered out-of-date. Table Population Forecasts by Jurisdiction by Alternative GWRC 2016 Alt.1 Alt.2 Alt.3 Alt.4 Caroline 47,371 46,363 49,550 48,590 Fredericksburg 36,389 35,125 35,135 35,757 King George 45,835 48,141 48,133 46,981 Spotsylvania 246, , , ,622 Stafford 262, , , ,811 TOTAL 638, , , ,761 Figure GWRC Region Population Projection Alternatives By Jurisdiction - 4 -

5 Households: Based on the fact that households projections and trend lines are highly related to population growth, and considering constrained data availability for households projections (for example, households projections are not available for Moody s and IHS), the 2045 households projections will use the same approach as population. Employment: 2045 Employment Projections Refer to Table 4 and Table 5 for comparisons across multiple data sources by jurisdiction. Note, for employment, there are careful considerations when estimating control totals given the differing assumptions between datasets. Five different datasets were reviewed at the jurisdiction-level: GWRC 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2040 LRTP employment forecasts developed in 2011 and 2012 Woods and Poole (W&P) 2010 to 2045 employment projections. IHS Global Insight (IHS) 2010 and 2040 employment projections. Moody s 2010 to 2040 employment projections. MWCOG Round 8.4 and Round 9.0 projections. Table Employment Data Source Comparisons JURISDICTION GWRC (2012) MWCOG MOODY'S IHS W&P CAROLINE 18,353 7,448 8,107 16,665 KING GEORGE 25,698 25,747 27,097 16,443 25,266 SPOTSYLVANIA 70,165 61,356** 74,156* 40,186* 130,176* STAFFORD 84,141 84,159 53,814 54,242 99,872 FREDERICKSBURG 54,821 54,819 29,

6 REGION 253, , , ,979 Table Employment Growth Rate Comparisons JURISDICTION GWRC EXTENDED MWCOG MWCOG ( ) W&P W&P ( ) CAROLINE 10.4% 17, % KING GEORGE 7.1% 27, % 27, % SPOTSYLVANIA 8.6% 65,981** 7.5% 141,045* 8.3% STAFFORD 9.9% 91, % 113, % FREDERICKSBURG 7.4% 58, % Notes: * Moody s, IHS, and W&P data combine Spotsylvania and Fredericksburg into one jurisdiction. ** MWCOG data only includes projects for the northern half of Spotsylvania County. Interpretation In Table 4, across the 2040 employment projections, MWCOG 2040 employment projections are nearly identical to the GWRC 2040 projections for King George, Stafford, and Fredericksburg. W&P has higher projections (7 percent) for the entire model region. Moody s and IHS employment projections are dramatically lower than GWRC, MWCOG, and W&P (however, note that these projections exclude most military and militaryrelated employment, and some government related employment). In addition, both of these estimates are circa 2013/2014 and neither were used as input into the original 2012 GWRC 2040 projections. Table 5 presents the different 2045 projections currently available and the relative 2040 to 2045 growth rate forecasts. There is some variance across the three possible 2045 projections by jurisdiction, with the largest variance in Stafford. Proposed New 2045 Approach The 2012 GWRC data, MWCOG data, W&P data, plus the new 2016 GWRC estimate for 2015 employment were all used across four alternative projections for 2045 employment. The four alternatives are described below: 2045 Alternative 1 Compared to the 2010 to 2020 growth rate from the 2012 GWRC data, the current estimate of 2015 employment is roughly 3,600 additional jobs for the GWRC region (primarily in Spotsylvania and Caroline Counties). This alternative assumes that the 2012 GWRC growth rate from 2010 to 2040 is identical for 2015 to 2045, however 2015 starts with 3,600 more jobs than anticipated in the 2012 GWRC data. The 2040 to 2045 growth rate is the same as 2012 GWRC estimated 2030 to 2040 growth rate Alternative 2 This approach makes use of the 2045 forecasts within the MWCOG data for Fredericksburg, King George, and Stafford; the W&P 2045 forecast for Caroline; and, the W&P growth rate, applied to the 2015 base year, for all of Spotsylvania County Alternative 3 This approach assumes that the 2040 projection within the 2012 GWRC forecast is held constant. It then grows the 2040 projection to 2045 using the MWCOG and W&P growth rates by jurisdiction

7 2045 Alternative 4 This approach combines Alternative 2 and Alternative 3. The primary difference between these two alternatives is in Spotsylvania County, where the W&P forecast for 2045 results in over 12,000 more jobs in the county then the 2012 GWRC 2040 forecast extended on a linear growth rate to This approach splits the difference between the two. Figure GWRC Region Employment Projection Alternatives Note that in Figure 1, the focus is only on the 2045 regional control totals. Interim year forecasts for 2025 and 2035 will rely on similar information regarding growth rates within the COG and W&P datasets. Table 4 presents the total employment by jurisdiction for the four 2045 forecast alternatives and Figure 4 presents the totals and share of the regional total for each jurisdiction by forecast alternative. The proportions do vary by forecast, specifically Alt.2 (which uses W&P data for Spotsylvania) versus Alt. 3 (which uses GWRC 2012 data for Spotsylvania). Alt. 4 splits the difference between the W&P and GWRC 2012 data. Table Employment Forecasts by Jurisdiction by Alternative GWRC 2016 Alt.1 Alt.2 Alt.3 Alt.4 Caroline 21,337 17,765 19,564 20,268 Fredericksburg 58,365 58,340 58,342 58,355 King George 27,218 27,370 27,318 27,274 Spotsylvania 77,515 88,935 76,023 82,

8 Stafford 91,262 91,120 91,101 91,169 TOTAL 275, , , ,545 Figure GWRC Region Employment Projection Alternatives By Jurisdiction - 8 -

9 Results and Recommendation The Draft 2045 jurisdiction population and employment projections are presented in Table 5. The new approach for the 2045 population and employment development is consistent with VDOT future year socioeconomic data development methods which is to use MPO land use data for areas that are covered by major MPOs, and use W&P projections for non-mpo areas. Population Alternative 3 is the recommended Draft 2045 projection. This alternative acknowledges that the region grew less in this decade than anticipated in the 2011/2012 analysis as a result of the recession and a gradual recovery. However, as the recovery continues and growth rates return closer to the pre-recession trend, the region catches-up and closely aligns with the 2012 GWRC forecast trend extended to Employment Alternative 4 is the recommended Draft 2045 projection. This alternative builds from the new 2015 base year estimate showing slightly stronger than expected employment growth in the region the first half of this decade, and then grows employment consistent with the 2012 GWRC forecast trend, except in Spotsylvania, where a merged trend incorporating a slightly higher growth forecast from Woods & Poole is used. Table 5. DRAFT 2045 Control Total Comparisons 2045 PROJECTION 2040 POP (GWRC 2012) 2045 POP (NEW) 2040 EMP (GWRC 2012) 2045 EMP (NEW) CAROLINE 46,600 48,590 18,353 20,268 KING GEORGE 44,700 46,981 25,698 27,274 SPOTSYLVANIA 240, ,622 70,165 82,479 STAFFORD 251, ,811 84,141 91,169 FREDERICKSBURG 33,620 35,757 54,821 58,355 TOTAL 617, , , ,