ICSC West Florida Idea Exchange Retail Market Overview. February 2015 ICSC

Transcription

1 ICSC West Florida Idea Exchange Retail Market Overview February 2015 ICSC

2 Table of Contents I. Statewide Perspective II. Consumer Perceptions III. Tampa / St. Petersburg IV. Sarasota / Bradenton V. Ft. Myers / Cape Coral VI. Naples VII. Central Florida Planning Committee Jim Michalak, ICSC 2015 West Florida Idea Exchange Program Chair, Plaza Advisors Randy Smith, ICSC 2015 West Florida Idea Exchange Program Co-Chair, KCI Technologies, Inc Megan Atkin, Ram Real Estate Charlie Boscarino, Retail Solutions Advisors Scott Davis, Dougherty Funding Dana Dowsett, LandQwest Commercial Britta Eriksson, Leaseconomics, LLC Justin Greider, JLL Livingston Hessam, Walker & Dunlop Nichole Katulich, Equity One, Inc. Craig Kopko, North American Properties Whitaker Leonhardt, HFF, L.P. Jared Moon, Leon Capital Group Jeremy Pino, Walker & Dunlop Ryan Plate, Circle K Stores Inc. Steve Tombrink, The Sembler Company RJ Walker, Hawkins Construction, Inc. Erica Waltermire, CBRE, Inc. Tracy Worrell, Crossman & Company

3 Statewide Perspective Steady lease-up drives rent increases 96% 95% 94% 93% $19.50 $19.00 $18.50 $ % Asking $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % YE'06 YE'07 YE'08 YE'09 YE'10 YE'11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14.8% Average 91.23% South Florida pulls away 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% $26.00 $23.50 $21.00 $18.50 $16.00 $13.50 $11.00 $8.50 $6.00

4 Consumer Perceptions Florida s unemployment falls below the nation US Florida YE '04 YE '05 YE '06 YE '07 YE '08 YE '09 YE'10 YE'11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14 Existing housing returns to 2007 levels Existing Home Sales (Millions) Median Sale Price $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160, $150,000 YE '07 YE '08 YE '09 YE '10 YE '11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14

5 Consumer Perceptions Consumer confidence finally jumps in US Florida YE'04 YE'05 YE'06 YE '07 YE '08 YE '09 YE'10 YE '11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14 Savings rate remains strong GDP Growth Personal Savings Rate

6 Consumer Perceptions Spending continues to increase $1,400,000 $1,350,000 $1,300,000 $1,250,000 $1,200,000 $1,150,000 $1,100,000 $1,050,000 $1,000,000 Total Retail Sales (Millions) Grocery Store Sales (As % of Overall Sales) 12.70% 12.50% 12.30% 12.10% 11.90% 11.70% 11.50% 11.30% $950, % YE'04 YE'05 YE '06 YE '07 YE '08 YE '09 YE'10 YE '11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14 Though consumer tastes have changed $1,400,000 $1,350,000 $1,300,000 $1,250,000 $1,200,000 $1,150,000 $1,100,000 $1,050,000 Total Retail Sales (Millions) 11.60% 11.40% 11.20% 11.00% 10.80% 10.60% 10.40% $1,000,000 Restaurant Sales (As % of Overall Sales) 10.20% $950, % YE'04 YE'05 YE '06 YE '07 YE '08 YE '09 YE'10 YE '11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14

7 Tampa / St. Pete soars as rents stabilize 91.0% 90.5% 90.0% $15.50 $ % Asking $ % $ % $ % $ % $12.50 YE '09 YE'10 YE'11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14 1.0% Average 90.8% Outlying markets continue to lag Submarket Inventory Asking Rent YE13 YE14 Change YE13 YE14 Change Bayside 1,118, % 95.7% 4.1% $11.86 $ % Clearwater CBD 533, % 94.6% -1.5% $12.41 $ % East Tampa 5,943, % 94.2% 0.6% $14.75 $ % Gateway 1,532, % 95.5% 5.7% $15.62 $ % Hernando County 4,550, % 90.7% 1.8% $10.96 $ % Mid-Pinellas 6,347, % 90.7% 1.9% $12.27 $ % North Pinellas 7,700, % 90.1% -1.9% $15.46 $ % Northeast Tampa 5,576, % 93.9% 0.4% $13.26 $ % Northwest Tampa 9,633, % 92.8% 1.3% $15.10 $ % Pasco County 10,052, % 88.2% 0.2% $15.20 $ % South Pinellas 7,367, % 88.8% -2.4% $14.08 $ % South Tampa 1,611, % 90.8% 0.9% $11.49 $ % St Petersburg CBD 232, % 88.0% 0.9% $8.41 $ % Tampa CBD 299, % 56.7% -7.1% Westshore 2,425, % 92.1% 3.6% $15.47 $ % Tampa Market Total 64,927, % 90.8% 1.0% $13.54 $ % Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

8 Sarasota / Bradenton Four straight years of increased occupancy 90.5% 89.5% 88.5% $17.00 $ % Asking $ % $ % $ % 85.5% YE '09 YE '10 YE '11 YE '12 YE '13 YE '14 $12.00 Average 89.3% Rent growth for the first time since 2007 Submarket Inventory Asking Rent YE13 YE14 Change YE13 YE14 Change Manatee 7,896, % 88.6% -0.1% $11.77 $ % Manatee Outlying 618, % 85.3% 2.0% $15.34 $ % Sarasota 8,507, % 90.8% 0.6% $15.35 $ % Sarasota Outlying 2,652, % 86.0% 0.2% $12.80 $ % Sarasota Market Total 19,674, % 89.3% 0.3% $12.95 $ % Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

9 Ft. Myers / Cape Coral Rental rates find the bottom 89.0% 88.0% 87.0% 86.0% $15.50 $14.50 $ % Asking $ % $ % $ % 83.0% 82.0% YE '09 YE '10 YE '11 YE '12 YE '13 YE '14 $12.50 $12.00 Average 84.5% Overbuilding continues to drag occupancy Submarket Inventory Asking Rent YE13 YE14 Change YE13 YE14 Change Bonita Springs 2,242, % 83.8% -1.9% $12.57 $ % Cape Coral 15,508, % 79.5% -6.9% $12.53 $ % Charlotte County 4,960, % 87.9% -2.1% $12.59 $ % City of Ft Myers 2,820, % 84.8% -3.4% $9.54 $ % Estero 692, % 87.9% 2.5% $12.85 $ % Lehigh 754, % 92.3% 0.3% $14.35 $ % North Ft Myers 1,495, % 80.0% -2.6% $9.34 $ % South Ft Myers / San Carlos 8,790, % 89.7% -0.2% $13.61 $ % The Islands 511, % 99.2% 0.9% $37.45 $ % Ft Myers Market Total 37,776, % 84.5% -3.9% $12.94 $ % Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

10 Naples Highest rent growth in the state 92% 91% 90% $20.00 $19.50 $19.00 $18.50 $ % Asking $ % $ % 87% 86% YE '09 YE '10 YE '11 YE '12 YE '13 YE '14 $17.00 $16.50 $16.00 $ % Average 90.5% Rents boom in core locations Submarket Inventory Asking Rent YE13 YE14 Change YE13 YE14 Change East Naples 2,228, % 85.2% -4.9% $13.36 $ % Golden Gate 642, % 95.6% 0.7% $12.99 $ % Lely 787, % 80.7% 0.0% $16.19 $ % Marco Island 761, % 95.6% -0.5% $21.47 $ % Naples 494, % 94.1% -3.9% $15.07 $ % North Naples 6,401, % 92.7% 1.2% $16.41 $ % Outlying Collier County 345, % 80.3% 0.2% $10.62 $ % Naples Market Total 11,661, % 90.5% -0.4% $15.74 $ % Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

11 Central Florida tops 90% 90.5% 90.0% 89.5% 89.0% $16.50 $16.00 $ % Asking $ % $ % $ % $ % $13.00 YE '09 YE '10 YE'11 YE'12 YE'13 YE'14 Rents fall outside of the tourist & UCF markets 1.5% Average 90.1% Submarket Inventory Asking Rent YE12 YE14 Change YE12 YE14 Change 436 Corridor 4,852, % 94.6% 1.4% $18.99 $ % Altamonte / Douglas 2,372, % 87.4% -4.3% $13.18 $ % Casselberry 3,534, % 89.5% 4.4% $10.83 $ % Downtown 12, Kissimmee 3,311, % 93.3% 0.5% $14.46 $ % Lake Mary 2,265, % 92.0% 2.0% $16.10 $ % Lee Road 469, % 73.1% -4.7% $12.00 $ % Longwood 965, % 89.0% 1.5% $11.93 $ % Maitland 681, % 95.3% 12.7% $15.04 $ % Maitland Center 1,538, % 93.5% 0.8% $13.45 $ % Metro West 1,251, % 94.5% 6.6% $16.59 $ % Orlando Airport 99, % 85.3% 7.9% $19.39 $ % Orlando Central Park 3,360, % 89.1% 2.9% $9.97 $ % Sanford 2,008, % 92.4% 3.4% $15.94 $ % South Orange 1,294, % 92.7% 2.9% $15.19 $ % Tourist Corridor 5,951, % 90.2% 1.1% $15.68 $ % University 568, % 92.5% -1.2% $21.88 $ % University Research 226, % 83.4% 16.3% $19.88 $ % West Colonial 5,892, % 88.4% 2.3% $12.10 $ % West University 2,768, % 94.3% 2.1% $17.30 $ % Winter Park 1,155, % 84.7% -11.3% $16.56 $ % Orlando Market Total 75,188, % 90.1% 1.5% $14.70 $ % Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property