TransGraph Research Consulting Technology

Transcription

1 Research Consulting Technology Agriculture Metals Energy Dairy Currency Economy Brands

2 Daily Spread Analyzer June 7, 2017

3 Palm Vs Other Veg oils Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 3

4 At Origins (FOB Basis) Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 4

5 Different Veg Oil Prices (FOB) Malaysian RBD, Indonesia CPO, Argentina Soy oil,ukraine Sun oil (FOB) $/Ton 29-Dec Jan-17 5-Mar-17 7-Apr May-17 MY RBD palmolien FOB Arg soy oil Ukraine Sun Oil Indonesia CPO USD/MT Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving MY RBD PALM OLEIN Indonesia CPO ARG SOY OIL Ukraine SUN OIL Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 5

6 Spreads FOB Basis 300 RBD Palm oil spreads with UKR sun oil and Arg soy oil (FOB) $/Ton Dec Jan-17 5-Mar-17 7-Apr May-17 Arg Soy-Maly RBD Ukraine Sun-Maly RBD USD/MT Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving ARG SOY - RBD MAL UKRAINE SUN - RBD MAL Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 6

7 At destination Markets (CIF Basis) Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 7

8 Different Veg Oil Prices at Rotterdam ($/Ton) 1050 Different veg oil prices at Rotterdam ($/Ton) May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 CPO (CIF rotterdam) $/Ton Rape oil (CIF rotterdam) $/Ton Soy oil (CIF rotterdam) $/Ton Sun oil (CIF rotterdam) $/Ton USD/MT Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving Soy RAPE OIL SUNFLOWER CPO Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 8

9 CPO spreads with other veg oils at Rotterdam ($/Ton) CPO Spreads with other veg Rotterdam ($/Ton) May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 Sun-CPO Soy-CPO Rape-CPO Sun-CPO Soy-CPO Rape-CPO USD/MT Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving SOY - CPO RAPE - CPO SUN - CPO Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 9

10 Different Veg oil prices at India($/Ton) 950 Veg Oil Prices at India (CNF basis $/Ton) Sun Soy CPO USD/MT Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving SUN OIL SOY OIL CPO Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 10

11 CPO spreads with other veg oils at India($/Ton) 400 Spreads between Palm oil and other oils at India (CNF basis ($/Ton)) May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar May-17 Soy-CPO Sun-CPO USD/Ton Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving SOY - CPO SUN - CPO Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 11

12 Palm Vs Energy products Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 12

13 Brent crude and other veg. oil prices 800 Veg oil premiums with Brent crude ($/Ton) CPO (CIF)-Brent Soy oil -Brent Rape oil -Brent 24-May Jun Jul Aug-16 3-Oct-16 5-Nov-16 8-Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 USD/MT Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving CPO - Brent Soy oil - Brent Rape oil - Brent Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 13

14 Different veg oil prices with Brent 900 Brent crude price ($/Ton) and different veg oils prices at Rotterdam ($/Ton) Brent $/Ton CPO Soy oil Rape oil 24-May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 14

15 CPO spot price vis-à-vis ICE Gas oil CPO Spread with ICE Gas oil (first month) May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 ICE gas oil futures ($/Ton) CPO (CIF rotterdam) $/Ton Spread (CPO (CIF)-ICE gas oil $/Ton 0 USD/MT Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving CPO - ICE GAS OIL Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 15

16 BMD CPO (3rd Month vs ICE Gas oil 3rd Month) BMD CPO(3rd month) vis-à-vis ICE GAS Oil(3rd month) May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 ICE Gas 3M oil$/ton BMD CPO ($/Ton) BMD-ICE gas oil 3M ($/Ton) RHS -175 USD/MT Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving CPO - ICE GAS OIL 3M Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 16 16

17 CPO vis-à-vis Singapore Gas oil 1000 CPO vs Singapore gas oil ($/Ton) May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 Sing Gas oil price ($/Ton) CPO FOB Indonesia ($/Ton) Spread (CPO FOB Indo ($/Ton)-Sing Gas oil) -250 USD/MT Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving CPO - SING GAS OIL Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 17

18 CPO price vis-à-vis PME margins CPO price and PME margins May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May CPO (CIF rotterdam) $/Ton PME margins at Rotterdam ($/Ton) USD/MT Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving CPO Price PME Margins Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 18

19 FORWARD CURVES Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 19

20 CME BMD Spread Spread (CME-BMD $ per ton ) May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 BMD CPO ($/Ton) CME soy oil ($/Ton) Spread (soy-cpo) 0 USD/Ton Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving CME - BMD Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 20

21 BMD Calendar Spreads BMD CPO calendar Spreads (MYR/Ton) P3-P6 P1-P3 USD/Ton Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving P1 - P P3 - P Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 21

22 BMD Forward Curve 3600 BMD CPO forward curve (MYR/Ton) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May-17 Jun'17 Jul'17 Aug'17 Sept'17 Oct'17 Nov'17 MYR/Ton Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving Last 1 year Moving avg Jun' Jul' Aug' Sept' Oct' Nov' Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 22

23 CME Forward Curve 40 CME Soy oil forward curve (USc/Lb) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May-17 Jul'17 Aug'17 Sept'17 Oct'17 Dec'17 Jan'18 CME USc/lb Recent day Last month avg last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Jul' Aug' Sept' Oct' Dec' Jan' Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 23

24 RBD OLEIN Forward curve Olien forward curve (USD/Ton) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May-17 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 OLEIN USD/MT Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving Last 1 year Moving avg Jun' Jul' Aug' Sept' Oct' Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 24

25 Argentina Soy Oil Forward Curve 960 Argentina Soy oil forward curve (USD/Ton) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar May-17 P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 ARG SOY USD/MT Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving Last 1 year Moving avg Jun' Jul' Aug' Sept' Nov' Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 25

26 Currency Factor Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 26

27 USD/IDR USD/IDR May Jun Jul Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-17 IDR Recent day Last month avg. last 3 month moving avg. Last 1 year Moving avg. Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving avg. avg. USD / IDR Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 27

28 USD/MYR 4.7 USD/MYR MYR Recent day Last month avg Last 3 month moving avg Last 1 year Moving Last 3 year moving Last 5-year moving USD / MYR Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 28

29 Spread Strategy For fresh spread strategies traders may wait for a while. Consulting Pvt Ltd Slide 29

30 Click here Click here LEGAL INFORMATION This document is the whole property of Consulting Private Limited, Hyderabad, India (hereafter ). The following acts are strictly prohibited: Reproduction and/or forwarding for sale or any other uses Posting on any communication medium Transmittal via the Internet Thanking you for your attention. Talk us on: Schedule an interaction: Research Queries: Sales: TransRisk software: More info: Click here Terms of usage Upon receipt of this document either directly or indirectly, it is understood that the user will and must fully comply with the other terms and conditions of. By accepting this document the user agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations. This publication is prepared by and protected by copyright laws. Unless otherwise noted in the Service Agreement, the entire contents of this publication are copyrighted by, and may not be reproduced, stored in another retrieval system, posted on any communication medium, or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of. Unauthorized reproduction or distribution of this publication, or any portion of it, may result in severe civil and criminal penalties, and will be prosecuted to the maximum extent necessary to protect the rights of. The information and opinions contained in this report have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any assets (commodities, currencies, etc) or other investment. Information and opinions contained in the report are published for the assistance of recipients, but are not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient; they are subject to change without any notice and not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the instruments discussed herein. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the analysts, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by. Locate Consulting Private Limited 6C/A, Melange Towers, Sy.No.80-84, Hitech City, Hyderabad , India Any reference to past performance should not be taken as an indication of future performance. No member in the public related to accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. Analyst Certification Each analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the analyst's views about any and all of the factors and assets (commodities, currencies, etc) named in this report, and (ii) no part of the analyst's compensation is directly or indirectly, related to the execution of the specific recommendations or views expressed herein. Copyright Consulting Private Limited, Hyderabad, India.