Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Transcription

1 Chart Collection for Morning Briefing June 7, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni Mali Quintana Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

2 Figure 1. GOLD CASH PRICE (dollars per ounce) Price (1244.) day moving average Source: Haver Analytics Figure 2. GOLD PRICE & CPI INFLATION (dollars per ounce) ( ) Consumer Price Index (yearly percent change) (1.14) May Apr Source: Haver Analytics and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 3 / June 7, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3 Figure 3. GOLD PRICE & WORLD CPI INFLATION (dollars per ounce) ( ) Consumer Price Index: World (yearly percent change) (2.54) May Apr Source: International Monetary Fund and Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 4. GOLD PRICE & FED S MAJOR TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX * (dollars per ounce) Fed s Major Trade-Weighted Dollar Index* (March 1973=1) / * Index is the weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden. The Euro Area includes Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg, Ireland, Spain, Austria, Finland, Portugal, & Greece. ** Cash price, London gold bullion, PM Fix. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 4 / June 7, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 2 Figure 5. GOLD PRICE & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX (dollars per ounce) 6 55 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index** (1967=1) 6/ ** Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics. 2 Figure 6. GOLD PRICE & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX (dollars per ounce) 6 55 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index** (2-day moving average, 1967=1) 6/ ** Weekly from 1951 to 1981, daily thereafter. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Haver Analytics. Page 5 / June 7, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

5 7 Figure 7. CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX & COPPER FUTURES PRICE CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=1) 6/3 Copper Futures Price** (cents per pound) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures contract. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics Figure 8. GERMANY: MANUFACTURING ORDERS (21=1) Foreign Total Orders Non-Eurozone Eurozone Apr Source: Deutsche Bundesbank 65 Page 6 / June 7, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

6 58 Figure 9. GLOBAL PMIs (sa) Composite Output (51.1) Manufacturing (5.) Non-Manufacturing (51.4) May Source: Markit and Haver Analytics Figure 1. GLOBAL COMPOSITE PURCHASING MANAGERS* Brazil (38.3) China (5.5) Eurozone (53.1) Japan (49.2) UK (53.) May * An index above 5 indicates an increase in activity. An index below 5 indicates a decrease in activity. Source: Markit and Haver Analytics. Page 7 / June 7, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure 11. GOLD PRICE & 1-YEAR TIPS YIELD (dollars per ounce) (1244.) 1-Year TIPS Yield (percent, inverted scale) (.19) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2 Figure 12. GOLD PRICE & EXPECTED INFLATION IN 1-YEAR TIPS (dollars per ounce) (1244.) Expected Inflation in 1-Year TIPS** (percent) (1.54) ** Yield spread between 1-year US Treasury bond and comparable TIPS. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics. Page 8 / June 7, 216 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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