More than Moore. Market trends. Amandine PIZZAGALLI Technology & Market Analyst - Equipment & Materials Yole Développement

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1 Source: More than Moore Market trends Amandine PIZZAGALLI Technology & Market Analyst - Equipment & Materials Yole Développement

2 OUTLINE Introduction to More than Moore Major trends in the industry Conclusions About Yole Développement 2

3 More than Moore 2015

4 WHAT HAPPENED? YoY Smartphone growth (%) / YoY Cellphones growth (%) Market dynamics Worldwide cellphones volume sales - Munits / Realistic scenario Yole April % Growth decline in the main semiconductor drivers (smartphones) Cost benefits of CMOS scaling have ceased Worldwide cellphones volume (Munits) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 500 0% TOTAL Phones Realistic (Munits) 1,249 1,511 1,781 2,025 2,242 2,315 2,316 2,331 2,359 2,400 2,456 2, % Entry-level phones (Munits) Realistic scenario) % Feature phones (Munits) (Realistic scenario) % Smartphone (Munits) (Realistic) ,188 1,366 1,436 1,527 1,640 1,740 1,854 1, % CAGR % 4

5 WHERE IS IT GOING? APPLICATION DIVERSIFICATION The future brings no single leading driver, but a fragmented growing market! Diversification IoT PCs Smartphones Autono mous driving Vehicle electrifica tion AR&VR AI Mainframes IoT infrastructure the connectivity and data processing backbone Servers /Datace nters 5G connec tivity 5

6 WHERE IS IT GOING? From Moore (Scaling) to More than Moore and beyond (Functional) Industry competition Moore Industry competition More than Moore Industry Competition Beyond Moore Processing Information age Sensing Interaction age Actuating Enhancement age Functional roadmap emerges beside scaling roadmap Personal Computers Laptop Quantified Smartphones self Tablets Drones Acceleration Smart homes Robotic Servants Autonomous vehicles Telekinesis

7 EVOLUTION OF SELECTED MORE THAN MOORE APPLICATIONS What are the applications that are driving the 6 and 8 manufacturing infrastructure? $ M Selected More than Moore applications $90 000M $80 000M $70 000M >$85B in 2020 $60 000M $50 000M $40 000M $30 000M $20 000M $10 000M $0M MEMS Market Image sensors LED market Power devices market Microfluidic market Printed electronic Market About Yole Développement 7

8 Major trends in the industry 2015

9 5G revolution and the impact on the RF modules

10 GLOBAL MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC GROWTH Exabytes per Month 100% 90% Global mobile data traffic by device/function Global mobile data traffic 80% 40 Mobile data traffic is growing explosively 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Smartphone data usage Other devices data usage (PCs, Tablets ) Voice only data usage G related 4G/4.5G 3G/3.5G 2G/2.5G 10

11 ECOSYSTEM OF THE RF COMPONENTS & MODULES INDUSTRY Forecast Total RF components & FEM/PAMiD module manufacturers Filters Antenna tuners Switches PAs & LNAs $22,777M CAGR +14% The growth is not evenly distributed Filters represent the biggest business in the RF Front End industry $36M $3,848M $5,208M $10,118M $1,026M $272M CAGR +40% $4,187M CAGR +1% $16,311M CAGR +21% $2,014M CAGR +12%

12 WAFER PROJECTIONS RF filters and power amplifiers, (in 6 eq. wafers) Filters represent the largest volume in terms of wafer shipment 12

13 WAFER PROJECTIONS RF filters, technology breakdown by volume (%) SAW filters will still represent the largest volume in terms of wafers, due to their bigger die size 13

14 From Technologies to Market Evolution of the MEMS INDUSTRY

15 Accelerometers Gas Gyroscopes Magnetometers Humidity Particles Temperature Micro bolometers PIR & thermopiles Ambient light sensor Vision Fingerprint Auto-Focus Micromirrors Optical benches Ink jet heads Drug delivery Biochips Switch Filter Resonator Micro tips Probes Watches components THE DIFFERENT MEMS, SENSORS & ACTUATORS & WHERE THEY CAN COMBINE SENSORS ACTUATORS Movement Environment Optical sensors Optical MEMS Microfluidics RF Micro structures Pressure Sound (microphone) µspeakers IMUs (6 to 9 DOF) closed package 6 to 11 DOF combos Possible integration with environment combos open package environmental combos Optical combos Possible integration with opto combos Debiotech micro pump Avago-Broadcom FBAR Filter Spiromax Patek Philippe Audio Pixels MEMS based speaker FLIR Lepton One Texas Instruments DLP SiTime oscillator InvenSense MPU9250 ST pressure sensor Infineon microphone Bosch BME680 polight AF 15

16 6 VS. 8 WAFER SIZE In 2016, the number of 8 MEMS wafers outpassed the number of 6 MEMS wafers for the first time. 16

17 CASE OF LITHOGRAPHY EQUIPMENT: MASK ALIGNERS VS STEPPERS Mask aligners are mainly used for non-cmos processes in MEMS devices Steppers are used for the CMOS part of MEMS devices or for the most challenging lithography step Mask aligners represent the majority of projection systems used for MEMS devices By revenue By revenue 17

18 MEMS & SENSORS LITHOGRAPHY NEEDS MEMS manufacturing includes DRIE steps with thick resist so high DOF is needed for projection systems In recent years, we have therefore seen an increasing use for steppers instead of mask We foresee an increasing use for steppers thanks to their very accurate layer-to-layer alignment aligners: Steppers have have very accurate layer-to-layer alignment, 0.1µm, ten times better than contact This is critical for MEMS where misalignment of mechanical features will lower performance, for example in gyros and micro mirrors Re-use of semiconductor process to make non IC devices is creating totally new opportunities We expect an increase investment in 200mm equipment for MEMS devices mainly driven by automotive as well as Sensors supported by the increase demand for mobile and wearables applications in the next few years 18

19 PROFILES OF COMPANIES ADDRESSING THE MEMS MARKET 2014 Revenue ($M) > $10B Two main profiles serve the MEMS projection system market: Mainstream Front End players with internal re-use or re-sale equipment Niche market players with dedicated new MEMS equipment New equipment base Niche markets > $1B > $150M >$100M Mainly internal re-use or re-sale base Due to its relaxed specs, the MEMS photolithography market benefits from a high percentage of re-used/retrofitted equipment coming from the mainstream front end semiconductor industry. We believe this could represent between 30-50% of the global equipment business. Mainstream Front End 19

20 Impact of transportation electrification and smart vehicles

21 THE TWO BIG TRENDS FOR VEHICLES Automation Automated vehicles sold ~2Mu in 2022 ~5Mu in 2027 (Level 3*) Impact of electrification and autonomous driving are becoming important and guiding innovation Thermal vehicles Electrification** Mu vehicles 105Mu vehicles Non-thermal vehicles sold ~14Mu in 2022 ~25-30Mu in 2027 * Level 3 = hands-off / ** Includes hybrids 21

22 AUTOMOTIVE TRENDS FOR 2022 Automation (2 Mu of Level 3 cars in 2022) Sensors for autonomous driving These two trends imply a market of more than $34B combined Electrification $18B Power electronics systems for EV and HEV: $16B Recharge infrastructure and legislation on safety (3Mu of full EV in 2022 and 15Mu of other EV and HEV) 22

23 TOTAL WAFER PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR POWER DEVICES Wafer volume shipments in units Split by wafer size 23

24 The Last Word

25 WHICH APPLICATIONS ARE IMPACTING THE SEMICONDUCTOR BUSINESS? The mobile market is maturing, with growth rates are decreasing below 10% Smartphone units went from 2011/2010 YoY growth 49% to 2016/2015 YoY growth 6% Future YoY growth until 2020 expected 6-7% (partial recovery, but not enough to lead industry forward) Strong move to go to More than Moore trends The future likely brings a fragmented semiconductor market without a clear leading application Future semiconductor drivers are expected to be: Internet of Things (including Industrial Internet of Things) Autonomous driving Electrification of vehicles 5G connectivity Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality Artificial Intelligence/Robotics chain evolution to maximize the added value and provide complete services to customers: 8 manufacturing is key Their is a growing importance of the devices outside the digital IC world, where analog, mixed signal devices, sensors, power management, embedded memories are becoming increasingly important and reaching big sales level, all of them being on 8 manufacturing We see more and more speciality foundries that are grabing a significant part of these more than Moore applications, as the process to be mastered are totally different from the digital IC world About Yole Développement 25

26 CONTACT INFORMATION o o CONSULTING AND SPECIFIC ANALYSIS North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development laferriere@yole.fr Japan & Rest of Asia: Takashi Onozawa, General Manager, Asia Business Development onozawa@yole.fr Greater China: Mavis Wang, Director of Greater China Business Development wang@yole.fr RoW: Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President, Yole Développement eloy@yole.fr REPORT BUSINESS North America: Steve LaFerriere, Director of Northern America Business Development laferriere@yole.fr Europe: Lizzie Levenez, EMEA Business Development Manager levenez@yole.fr Rest of Asia: Takashi Onozawa, General Manager, Asia Business Development onozawa@yole.fr Japan & Asia: Miho Othake, Account Manager ohtake@yole.fr Greater China: Mavis Wang, Director of Greater China Business Development wang@yole.fr Follow us on o FINANCIAL SERVICES (in partnership with Woodside Capital Partners) Jean-Christophe Eloy, CEO & President eloy@yole.fr o GENERAL Public Relations: leroy@yole.fr info@yole.fr About Yole Développement 26