The National Broadband Network

Transcription

1 The National Broadband Network It s much more than Fast Internet August 2009 Agenda What is the NBN? What opportunities will it open up? How will it change our lives? How will it be built? What are the latest technologies that will be used? 2 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

2 Agenda What is the NBN? 3 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 What is the NBN? Canberra, 7 April 2009: The Rudd Government today announced the establishment of a new company to build and operate a new super fast National Broadband Network. This new super fast National Broadband Network, built in partnership with private sector, will be the single largest nation building infrastructure project in Australian history. This new National Broadband Network will: Senator the Hon Stephen Conroy Connect 90 percent of all Australian homes, schools and workplaces with broadband services with speeds up to 100 megabits per second, 100 times faster than those currently used by many households and businesses Connect all other premises in Australia with next generation wireless and satellite technologies that will deliver broadband speeds of 12 megabits per second 4 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

3 What is the NBN? Canberra, 7 April 2009 cont: To turn its vision into action the Government will immediately: Commence an implementation study to determine the operating arrangements, detailed network design, ways to attract private sector investment for roll-out early 2010, and ways to provide procurement opportunities for local businesses Fast-track negotiations with the Tasmanian Government, as recommended by the Panel of Experts, to build upon its NBN proposal to begin the rollout of a FTTP network and next generation wireless services in Tasmania as early as July, an immediate start on a nation-wide investment. Implement measures to address 'black spots' through the timely rollout of fibre optic transmission links connecting cities, major regional centres and rural towns - delivering improvements to telecommunication services in the short term. Progress legislative changes that will govern the national broadband network company and facilitate the rollout of fibre networks, including requiring greenfields developments to use FTTP technology from 1 July Make an initial investment in the network of $4.7 billion. Commence a consultative process on necessary changes to the existing telecommunications regulatory regime. 5 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Agenda What opportunities will it open up? How will it change our lives? 6 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

4 Current trends give clues to the future: Internet video explosion Video content is making high-speed broadband very relevant and creating a lot of traffic! Internet traffic 10% is YouTube 37% Peer-to-Peer 70% is video The popularity of browserbased video such as YouTube is having a significant impact on overall bandwidth consumption. Ellacoya Networks 46% HTTP 36% is streaming video Best Effort HSI will be challenged Demands better QoS than best effort broadband services can provide When will we see impacts of congestion on Quality Of Experience? 7 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Current trends give clues to the future: Mobile data explosion (Tb/year) 900, , ,000 Traffic on Operator 1 Network Traffic on Verizon's Network Voice DataApplications (Tb/year) Traffic on Operator 2 Network 3,000,000 Data 2,000,000 Voice 1,000, est. est est est est Data Usage 2G pre-iphone = 64 MB/user/mo 2G iphone = 890 MB/user/mo 3G pre-iphone = 310 MB/user/mo 3G iphone = 2500 MB/user/mo Source: Quarterly reports of US Mobile carriers and Bell Labs Business Modeling analysis & forecast 8 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

5 User take-up driven by intuitive interfaces and high utility Branded User Interface Consistent across applications Essential to generate ease-ofuse and end-user acceptance Visualisation on any in-home screen TV, PC, Tablet, Cell Phone interfaces (browser, widget like) Interface logic and libraries /complexity are in HSG SW Consistent User Experience 9 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 The Cocooning of the Digital Age 67% of HHs have 3 or more televisions. Simultaneous television usage accounts for over 62% of primetime viewing. 12% 9% 3% 7% 7% 1% 15% 23% 37% % % 40% 6+ How many televisions do you have in your home? How many televisions are typically on at the same time in your household during the primetime hours (8PM-11PM, EST)? Source: Alcatel-Lucent US data UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

6 Primetime shifts to My Time Among DVR HHs (34% of total), 35% have more than one. Among DVR HHs, 75% use the dual-tuner feature at least several times a week. 10% 1 2 6% 5% 10% Several times an hour Several times a day 25% 3+ 14% 29% Several times a week Several times a month 65% Several times a year Never How many Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) do you have in your household? 36% How frequently would you say that you use your Digital Video Recorder (DVR) to record two shows at the same time or watch one show while recording another? Source: Alcatel-Lucent US data UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 The Death of the 30-second Spot? High Definition is Important 1 in 3 are online during at least half their TV viewing time Better than one in 3 HHs have HDTV, with half of all consumers planning an HDTV purchase within the next year 22% 14% 9% 11% 16% Never <10% 10-25% 25-50% 7% 4% 2% 0 31% 56% % 28% >75% During what percent of your television viewing time would you say that you are also surfing the Internet, playing online games, or chatting or blogging online? How many HDTVs do you have in your home? Source: Alcatel-Lucent US data UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

7 Bandwidth usage in the modern home 0,2 Mbps 0,2 Mbps Telephony 5,7 Mbps Mobile phone 14,4 Mbps 2 Mbps Video telephony 2 Mbps 0,5 Mbps Online gaming 2+ Mbps Broadband 10 Mbps 20 Mbps Internet 6 Mbps Video conference 6 Mbps 0,3 Mbps SDTV 2 x 2 Mbps 0,5 Mbps HDTV 2 x 10 Mbps Hosted 1-20 Mbps Mbps Applications 10 Mbps Peer to Peer 20 Mbps 0,7 Mbps 3D-HDTV 30 Mbps Mbps TOTAL Mbps 13 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 And it s far more than entertainment: ubiquitous multiservice broadband networks will underpin our future E-Education Wider and better access to knowledge ICT literacy development Distance E-learning E-Health Tele-diagnosis Monitoring of health indicators, Aged Care Secure health records Training of health professionals E-Business E-commerce for extended network of customers and suppliers E-transactions (efficiency) for supply chain and payment E-Government Enhanced public services delivery Public administration efficiency Transparency E-Environment Public alert system Climate monitoring Flood management 10:1 Carbon Offset Smart grids and smart energy E-Employment Development of ICT work force Tele-working to connect remote areas to main office and reduce traffic congestion The real national and user benefit comes from the services UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

8 Enabling many business models 15 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Driving socio-economic advancement 40 BB subs per 100 inhabitants Denmark 35 Netherlands Finland Switzerland South Korea Hongkong Sweden 30 UK Germany Canada France Belgium USA 25 Australia Japan 20 Taiwan Italy Spain Austria 15 Czech Rep. Portugal Greece Singapore China Brazil Vietnam India Romania Poland Turkey Argentina Mexico Malaysia Russia GNI (PPP) per capita (k$).. for every one percentage point increase in broadband penetration in a state, employment is projected to increase by 0.2 to 0.3 % per year Crandall et al, The Brookings Institution, July UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

9 How much speed is enough? Downstream Bit rate 1 Gbit/s 100 Mbit/s 10 Mbit/s 1 Mbit/s 100 kbit/s 10 kbit/s kbit/s Cutting edge Power users Trailing edge Novice users 2009 Hong Kong Japan 100 Mbit/s Singapore Korea 10 Mbit/s 1 Gbit/s Market expectation for fixed broadband Market expectation for wireless broadband 17 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Immersive Video: How Much is Enough? Immersive video and imaging is crucial for advancement in teleworking, entertainment, education and health how much bandwidth is enough? Relative Screen Size SDTV We are here HDTV 720p HDTV 1080p (1920 x 1080) Digital Cinema-2K (2064 x 1080) Super HD Digital Cinema-4K (4096 x 2160) Ultra High Definition Video (7680 x 4320) Admit it, your spouse would hit the roof if you if you bought one of these! 18 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

10 19 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent

11 Consumers are more intolerant of errors in video apps Tolerance depends on the application 1 event per hour is the max acceptable rate for Standard Definition 1 event per 4 hours is the max acceptable rate for High Definition (reference: Broadband Forum TR-126, DVB ETSI TS ) Simple steps can mitigate traditional problems Jitter, Latency and packet re-ordering are trivially overcome using appropriate buffering and buffer management at the client If dealt with, this leaves Packet Loss as the main concern BB Forum TR UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 FTTH comes with profound usage changes: 78% of FTTH users are very satisfied 60% 50% 40% 30% I do not like it at all Its below average Its average Its above average I like it very much 20% 10% 0% Cable modem DSL Mobil Breband Optical fibre Source: FTTH Council Europe & Ovum, UNSW Presentation Presentation Title Month July All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

12 It s not just the Internet Reliability Affordability Security Lifeline IT S THE NATIONAL NETWORK! Privacy National Emergency Resilience Interoperability 23 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Agenda How will it be built? What are the latest technologies that will be used? 24 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

13 NBN Architecture All industries need to be accommodated not just Telco Infrastructure reuse vs optimum FTTP topology Flexibility may create complexity 25 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Gigabit Passive Optical Networking (GPON) Passive splitters used to share a single fiber among subscribers No electronics in outside plant better reliability Full downstream bandwidth (2.4Gbps) is available dynamically to any subscriber and can be rate limited Upstream bandwidth is granted to each subscriber on a dedicated and a dynamic basis Optical Network Terminals (ONTs) 1310nm Wavelength splitter/combiner Optical Line Terminal (OLT) 1550nm 1490nm Subscribers 26 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

14 Power Reduction: GPON is Best-in-Class ECO 5 4 P2P VDSL Actual EU Code of Conduct EU Code of Conduct: CPE and CO W/User 3 2 ADSL GPON > 90% of all new products ADSL, VDSL, P2P, GPON 2008: on and off : on low power state GPON is best-in-class Power reduction due to higher degree of integration, system-on-chip technology and more efficient transceivers. 27 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 What is FTTP all about Electrical Utility Telephone fibre Cable TV Source: US DOT Aerial Fibre Up to 4x faster than buried plant Source: Telcite.fr Fibre in sewers No trenching, no digging Source: Lightreading Do-it-Yourself Fibre 60% discount for users who install their own fibre 28 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

15 New technologies lower cost and visual impact in aerial installations: new connectors and splicing technologies Source: Corning Cable Systems 29 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 New technologies lower cost in underground installations: Microtrenching Source: 30 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

16 GPON Evolution: Capacity & Reach More bandwidth for FTTB and backhaul 10 Gb/s 1 10 Gb/s GPON Approximately 2011/2012 Extended 10 Gb/s PON RE Increased split ratio More bandwidth and symmetry per subscriber 2.5 Gb/s GPON B+ Today GPON C Extended GPON 2009 Reach 20km 30 km 60 km RE Split Less dense areas addressed and central office consolidation 31 UNSW Next Generation Presentation Access July February All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Bandwidth requires changing scale and investment Network Impact Home Access Aggregation Service router Core Yesterday s Average Bandwidth consumption: 1.5 Mb.1 Mb.1 Mb.05 Mb Today s Average Bandwidth consumption: 20.0 Mb 10.0 Mb 3.0 Mb 1.50 Mb Scale Multiplier: 1,500% 10,000% 3,000% 3,000% As bandwidth requirements accelerate, the current unstable industry model will come under increasing pressure, requiring significant scaling of the network and further investment 32 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

17 NBN is only one part of a multi-access, flat IP, scalable, multi-service network Home Network Deep Fiber Right Caching Connected Home On the Move Femto 3G/4G Mobile Cascading Access Carrier-Grade Ethernet/MPLS Flat IP ASP Multi Backbones Service Edge IP/MPLS Telco2.0 Service Oriented Architecture Secure Mobility Enterprise Network Service Quality Security and Quality-Of-Service Clients, Devices, Premises Access and Aggregation Metro and Backbone Service Delivery Environment 33 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Richer experience for millions more Exposed Services High Leverage Network 34 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

18 FTT$: Where is the money spent? ADSL2+ - CO ~12 Mbps VDSL2 CO ~50 Mbps FTTH - SDU 100 Mbps+ FTTN VDSL2 ~50 Mbps FTTB VDSL2 ~100 Mbps FTTH - MDU 100 Mbps+ The Real Drivers: up-front CAPEX, competition, time-to-market 35 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 Overseas Perspectives: the FTTx Market in North America Greenfield FTTH Targeted to pass 18 million Homes Over 1.5 million internet subs today Over 943,000RF/IPTV subs today Now rolling out GPON Significant Middle Ground 78+ million living units in some state of flux Brownfield FTTN Targeted to pass 30 million homes Over 231,000 video subs today Install rate approaching 12,000 homes per week Muni FTTH 36 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

19 Robust & field proven by more than 90 customers Alcatel-Lucent FTTH Public References* P2P Fiber BPON GPON Dell Oro: Alcatel-Lucent is present in every country engaged in FTTH and has more than 90 fibre deployments ongoing worldwide, with a mix of GPON and point-to-point roll-outs. * Alcatel-Lucent is also involved in more than 20 non-public FTTH deals. 37 TelMalaysia March UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009 FTTH deployment in the world and Australia cdef48d72c0b66d&ll= , & spn= ,360&t=h&z=1&om=0iit 38 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009

20 Some Issues for Further Discussion Open Access Bitstream Specification / Multi NSP Complexity = Risk Fibre Architecture / Wireless (and Convergence) National Broadband Infrastructure, Copper and Special Services Migration Other Smart Networks Services / Applications / Content Home Networking 39 UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent UNSW Presentation July 2009 All Rights Reserved Alcatel-Lucent 2009