5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments

Transcription

1 Research Report 5G worldwide outlook: standardisation programmes and technology developments October 2014 Chris Nicoll and Nipun Jaiswal

2 2 About this report This report analyses the implications of forthcoming 5G standards for regulators, mobile network operators (MNOs) and technology companies, such as network and device manufacturers. It is based on several sources: Analysys Mason s internal research, including forecasts of fixed and wireless traffic and consumer surveys interviews with operators, equipment vendors and stakeholders in governmental policy areas governmental and standards bodies publications on 5G. Key questions answered in this report What will be the impact of 5G on the telecoms industry? Is this just a new mobile technology or will it have an impact on fixed and cable operators? Will 5G extend beyond the radio access network into the core and if so, how far will it go? Will 5G be a next generation of 4G and what will it mean for the building and operation of networks? Which of the many participating organisations are driving the technology development and standards work for 5G? Figure 1: Summary of network equipment vendors, mobile operators and industry bodies mentioned in this report. [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Vendors and operators Alcatel-Lucent China Mobile Ericsson Etisalat Huawei KT (Korea) Nokia Networks NTT Docomo Qualcomm Samsung SK Telecom Sprint Telefónica ZTE Who needs to read this report Industry bodies 5G Forum 5G PPP ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group NGMN The Ministry of Science and Technology of the People s Republic of China s 863 Program Mobile operators network, spectrum and technology strategy teams. Network vendors R&D and strategy teams, and operator account teams supporting marketing and strategy. Regulator work groups and policy teams responsible for licensed, lightly licensed and unlicensed spectrum policy. Industry bodies associated with assigning and managing spectrum used in fixed and mobile wireless networking.

3 3 Contents Slide no. 6. Executive summary and key implications 7. Executive summary 8. Key implications for mobile network operators (MNOs) 9. Key implications for regulators 10. Key implications for technology companies 11. The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry 12. 5G could be the most complex standardisation exercise that the telecoms industry has experienced 13. Some 5G spectrum options could enable hyper-dense networks and deliver gigabit-speed wireless data services 14. 5G spectrum access is likely to become more diverse and more dynamic, which could lead to security and performance challenges 15. The development of new 5G radio access technologies would hinder backward compatibility 16. 5G could bridge the divide between fixed and mobile network services 17. 5G R&D is underway established players are forming partnerships that may signal a new value chain 18. The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes 19. Key to the 5G vision is that networks must be higher performing, and more virtualised and service-driven than today s networks Slide no. 20. The top-four drivers for 5G are the same as those for 4G: growth in mobile and fixed data traffic, M2M device connections and smartphone take-up 21. The use cases for 5G are becoming increasingly understood, but basic questions are still being asked about what should be in the standard 22. Standardisation bodies and industry alliance associations have begun their 5G initiatives 23. ITU s Working Party 5 is co-ordinating the 5G standards effort, but major deliverables will not appear until mid Early 5G specifications are expected to be introduced in 2015 in 3GPP Release 14, followed by further releases 25. 5G development efforts worldwide 26. Multiple stakeholders are influencing 5G development, including MNOs, governments, equipment vendors and research institutions 27. Asia Pacific and the European Union are leading efforts to define and develop 5G, but input from the Americas and Australia is missing 28. The IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group and MOST s 863 Program are working together to propel China s leadership in 5G development 29. South Korea s 5G Forum aims to commercialise 5G by 2020 and offer 1Gbps per user anytime anywhere 30. Japan organises its 5G development activities through ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc

4 4 Contents Slide no. 31. METIS 2020 intends to ensure that the EU leads the development of 5G as it works to build worldwide consensus 32. 5G PPP in Horizon 2020 is a 50:50 public private partnership project that aims to position the EU at the forefront of 5G development 33. UK-based 5GIC is the world s first dedicated 5G centre, and aims to research and develop efficient 5G solutions 34. Proposed key technologies 35. The 5G vision will drive the need for a new radio access technology and possibly non-backward-compatible changes 36. Massive MIMO systems could help operators achieve the capacity, throughput and efficiency targets required for 5G networks 37. Information-centric networking can change how we think about mobile networking and vastly simplify the next-generation core 38. Macro-assisted small cells could help networks address density challenges without increasing signalling loads 39. Mesh 5G access networks could change how local data is handled by the wireless network and increase network scalability 40. SCMA is a new waveform and signalling technology to increase throughput and number of simultaneous users supported in the RAN 41. Dynamic TDD framing could achieve the 1ms latency goal while boosting throughput and network efficiency 42. 5G radio development may create connections to deeper core network and cloud functions, driving high data rates and improved performance Slide no. 43. UF-OFDM improves spectrum utilisation and efficiency for short-burst communications 44. About the authors and Analysys Mason 45. About the authors 46. About Analysys Mason 47. Research from Analysys Mason 48. Consulting from Analysys Mason

5 5 List of figures Figure 1: Summary of network equipment vendors, mobile operators and industry bodies mentioned in this report Figure 2: 5G spectrum band options Figure 3: Three regulatory methods of managing spectrum Figure 4: The potential evolution of the mobile value chain following the launch of 5G Figure 5: Key drivers and requirements for 5G Figure 6: Major market trends driving the need for 5G networks Figure 7: 5G use case scenarios and potential services Figure 8: Selected 5G standards bodies and industry associations Figure 9: Timeline for the development of mobile technology standards, including tentative dates for 5G Figure 10: 5G development stakeholders Figure 11: 5G development initiatives by country and region Figure 12: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by the IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group Figure 13: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by the 5G Forum Figure 14: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by ARIB 2020 and Beyond AdHoc Figure 15: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by METIS 2020 Figure 16: 5G capabilities and requirements as defined by 5G PPP Figure 17: 5GIC s management structure Figure 18: Proposed solutions to 5G radio access technology challenges Figure 19: Potential signal waveforms for a new radio access technology Figure 20: Potential features and benefits of massive MIMO technology, and how they relate to 5G requirements Figure 21: Cisco s information-centric networking model Figure 22: Potential features and benefits of the macro-assisted small cell concept Figure 23: Mesh RAN architecture proposal for 5G Figure 24: Sparse code multiple access (SCMA) Figure 25: Dynamic TDD framing proposed for sub-1ms interface Figure 26: Ericsson s 5G architecture vision Figure 27: A comparison of out-of-band power levels of OFDM and filtered waveforms

6 13 Some 5G spectrum options could enable hyper-dense networks and deliver gigabit-speed wireless data services Figure 2: 5G spectrum band options [Source: Analysys Mason 2014] Band Bandwidth available Merits Band assignments Spectrum potential 700MHz Varies widely by country, but generally 2 30MHz to 2 45MHz Ideal for wide area coverage as well as inbuilding penetration Typically in lots of 2 5MHz or 2 10MHz Expand wide area coverage, improve indoor coverage GHz Up to 400MHz, paired or unpaired Larger channels could be used (for example, 100MHz) Multiples of 20MHz Support for multiple operators with 100MHz channels 5GHz Up to 300MHz will be considered at the ITU s World Radiocommunication Conference 2015 (WRC-15) Likely to be licence-exempt Multiples of 20MHz Almost 800MHz available using established and new allocations 15GHz Up to 500MHz Supports high speeds (Ericsson has demonstrated 5Gbps). The limited signal range is ideal for dense access networks. Multiples of 100MHz Support for dense, very high-speed data services and multiple operators with 100MHz channels 28GHz Up to 500MHz Performance similar to 15GHz Multiples of 100MHz Similar to 15GHz 70/80GHz Up to 5GHz Performance similar to 15GHz Multiples of 100MHz Similar to 15GHz Spectrum for 5G will probably consist of a combination of established and new bands, spanning a wide section of radio spectrum. Different bands will serve different purposes and a key challenge for mobile operators will be to integrate the various bands. It is expected that MNOs will share 5G spectrum to a greater extent than currently, which may signal an end to further spectrum being reserved for exclusive mobile broadband use in future. A key difference between 5G and earlier generations of mobile technology is that 5G radio research is focused on improving spectrum utilisation, rather than just spectrum efficiency.

7 17 5G R&D is underway established players are forming partnerships that may signal a new value chain Vendors and operators are already engaged in R&D for 5G technology. Etisalat and Huawei have announced that they are joining forces to conduct 5G trials in the Middle East Huawei is starting to demonstrate its early 5G advances in antenna arrays and spectrum support. Samsung has announced 1Gbps wireless connectivity and has conducted trials using 28GHz spectrum and 64- antenna arrays. NTT Docomo has said it plans to roll out 5G from 2020, and will use higher frequencies, smaller cells and more HetNet solutions. The European Commission has launched the 5G Public Private Partnership (5G PPP) that aims to develop technology research and prepare for standardisation. It views 5G as an engine for growth and a means of regaining technological leadership within the EU. The 5G vision suggests that further sharing and virtualisation will be key. This could result in a change in control of the mobile value chain. Figure 4: The potential evolution of the mobile value chain following the launch of 5G [Source: Analysys Mason, 2014] Licensed spectrum Traditional MNO core elements Vertical MNO networks and exclusive spectrum Radio access network Backhaul Potential new 5G value chain Core network Virtualised or shared infrastructure, and pooled or shared spectrum Service domain Service provider Service provider Service provider Virtualised network Spectrum Radio network Core network Cloud services Quality of service

8 44 Executive summary and key implications The impact of 5G on the telecoms industry The vision for 5G and the status of standardisation programmes 5G development efforts worldwide Proposed key technologies About the authors and Analysys Mason

9 45 About the authors Chris Nicoll (Practice Head) is the head of Analysys Mason s Network Technologies and Enterprise and M2M research practices. His primary areas of specialisation include wireless access technologies, wireless traffic forecasting, mobile infrastructure and operator strategy. Chris has more than 20 years of expertise as a leader in defining telecoms strategy. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Chris held Principal Analyst positions at ACG Research and Nicoll Consulting, where he developed marketing strategy and positioning for leading telecoms operators. At Yankee Group, Chris was a member of the Yankee Group Research Council and provided thought leadership to the research organisation. At Lucent and Alcatel-Lucent, Chris was director of strategic marketing, overseeing the company's corporate positioning and messaging, including public affairs and analyst relations. Chris also led the Telecom Infrastructure team at Current Analysis, where he developed a global analyst team, as well as oversaw consulting engagements and managed client relationships. Chris has also held marketing and network engineering positions at Netrix, Tymnet and Visual Networks. Chris holds a BS in Communications with minors in Computer Science, Psychology and Marketing from Florida State University. Nipun Jaiswal (Analyst) is based in Analysys Mason s Singapore office. He specialises in the Asia Pacific telecoms, media and related technologies markets. He is an expert in tracking, analysing and forecasting telecoms market data, and in providing corporate strategy, competitive analysis, market insights and market intelligence. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Nipun was an industry analyst in Frost & Sullivan's ICT research and growth consulting team for Asia Pacific, based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Nipun has a strong technical background, having worked extensively on mobile network management solutions in the OSS domain for a Tier 1 telecoms equipment vendor based in Europe and India. Nipun holds an MBA in global business from the S P Jain School of Global Management (Singapore and Dubai) and a degree in Computer Engineering from Bharati Vidyapeeth University (India).

10 46 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit

11 47 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit

12 48 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit

13 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any clientspecific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.