The Broadband Revolution

Transcription

1 The Broadband Revolution 2011 Economic & Social Outlook Conference John Stanton CEO Communications Alliance Melbourne 1 July 2011 John Stanton, CEO Communications Alliance

2 National Broadband Network Project Communications Alliance Focus on 8 NBN related topics 200 people 70 organisations Providing i industry input Consumer Information

3 FTTH Not the Bleeding Edge 50.8 million FTTH/B subscribers in Asia-Pacific at end 2010 Growing at 26% CAGR faster than DSL >129 million subscribers by 2014 across 16 Asia-Pac nations Source: Ovum FTTH/FTTB Asia-Pacific Subscriber Forecast & Analysis, Julie Kunstler, May 2011

4 Cost-Benefit/ROI Debate OECD savings of between 0.5% and 1.5% justify FTTH network Based on cost savings in transport, health, education, electricity over a 10 year period* New Zealand Institute - $2.7Bn - $4.4Bn annual productivity and economic growth from broadband - $NZ** European job growth of 345,000 and increase in 636Bn of economic activity Japanese Ministry of Information & Communications direct value-add of 73 trillion yen ( ) from ubiquitous high-speed Japanese network extrapolates crudely to $182 billion direct value for Australia from the NBN over 10 years Opportunity cost a slide down global GDP rankings Pssssssssst: Australian Government will spend $36.2 billion from to on the Nation Building Program (road & rail). Sources *OECD 9 December 2009 Network Developments in support of Innovation and user needs. ** New Zealand Institute Defining the Broadband Aspiration Sept 2007 ***Fornefeld et al The impact of broadband on growth and productivity, for the European Commission 2008

5 Wireless Shannon s Limit Approaches Source: Qualcomm

6 And Spectrum Challenges Loom

7 Market Structure & Regulatory Variables Industry Consolidation 1030 players become -????? Construction & skills/workforce challenges 15-20k FTEs needed at peak construction Wholesale layer winners/poi structure New entrants Pricing & customer take-up National Digital Economy Strategy Apps, Apps, Apps - & Service Innovation

8 Fixed Bandwidth Demand s) (Kb/s

9 Fibre can deliver consistent performance across the entire footprint 1. Fibre path distance from NBN Co FAN site to end user premise 2. ADSL curves shown illustrate theoretical maximum speed vs distance characteristics according to relevant standards

10 New devices and applications will drive demand Technology Trends Broadband Applications Internet TVs Computers, Energy Tablets Management, E-Gov Services Digital Health Online Learning Automation Set Top Boxes Digital Healthcare Home Digital Security Cloud Computing Tele-working HD Conferencing /IPTV

11 Full-Scale Construction Statistics Roll-out over approximately 9.5 years NBN expected to pass over 13 million premises when rollout completed Almost 6,000 premises forecast to be passed per day during peak rollout Projected direct construction workforce of 15,000 to 20,000 FTEs at the peak of construction First release sites on the mainland have been awarded and work commenced Construction will occur concurrently in metropolitan, regional, and rural areas It will be Australia's first national wholesale-only, open access broadband network Network will be capable of providing peak speeds of up to 1 Gigabyte per second to 93% of Australian premises though our GPON design and 12 megabits per second to the remaining 7% of premises, through a satellite/wireless solution NBN is different The NBN roll-out will involve multiple projects of a like nature over a substantial ti period of time There is significant scope to leverage learnings and drive improvements as we go We have a unique opportunity to evolve / define construction delivery characteristics

12 Building the NBN Release 1 NBN Co First Release Overview Five different sites were chosen based on a range of criteria: geography, geophysical characteristics, climatic conditions, housing density etc.. Network being built in three phases Stage 1: Passive Network Stage 2: Active Network Stage 3: Productisation connection of RSPs to FRS A range of designs based on aerial and underground build types Innovative and efficient network design based on a series of building blocks or modules Basic operational module covers approximately 3000 premises NBN Co First Release Sites Brunswick (VIC) Armidale (NSW) Minnamurra (NSW) Townsville (QLD) Willunga (SA)

13 Building the NBN Release 2 ACT Gungahlin NSW Riverstone (Sydney), Coffs Harbour Minnamurra/Kiama Downs (First Release) Armidale (First Release) Queensland Brisbane (inner north), Springfield Lakes, Toowoomba Townsville (First Release) Northern Territory Casuarina a South Australia Modbury, Prospect Seaford/McLaren Vale (First Release) Victoria Bacchus Marsh, South Morang Brunswick Western Australia Victoria Park (Perth), Geraldton, Mandurah

14 From Premise to Point of Interconnect Service Provider A Fibre Access Node Point of Interconnect Service Provider B Service Provider C Access Connectivity

15 EXAMPLE ONLY: Fibre Distribution Hub Access Connectivity

16 EXAMPLE ONLY: NTU (Indoor)

17 Potential PON Evolutionary Paths Longer term evolution to 40Gbps is possible Tot tal PON band dwidth (Gbp ps) G TDM PON electronics technical challenges are being worked on by the industry will take net 2 3 years for maturity 10G PON 2.5G PON 4λ x 10G PON (40Gbps) 4λ x 2.5G PON (10Gbps) Hybrid GPON may be a practical evolutionary step TDM GPON is starting ti mass deployment 0 now and has a long life to go Wavelengths per direction

18 Indicative Pricing of Wholesale Services 1/ Access price scale ($/month per Service - Excluding GST) Downstream/ (Mbps) Upstream/ (Mbps) Fibre Wireless Satellite 12 1 $24 $24 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $150 2/ Connectivity pricing Connectivity is sold as capacity (Mbps) and can be seen as a proxy for usage (GB/month) Additional capacity is available to the RSP in increments that allows them to control their own quality of service * Note: Pricing is indicative only and subject to regulatory approval

19 Risks & Challenges Political Early change of Government = Potential Major Re-design Regulatory Points of Interconnect Pricing Universal Service Obligation Operational/Financial Project costs & committed ROI Competing Technologies Labour availability Condition of passive assets Take-up rates, no opt-out, need for premise-owner consent Satellite development