Investing in Climate and Disaster Resilience through NCDR. Wei-Sen Li

Transcription

1 Project Launch: COASTAL CITIES AT RISK IN THE PHILIPPINES Investing in Climate and Disaster Resilience January 24, 2018 Investing in Climate and Disaster Resilience through NCDR Wei-Sen Li Secretary General National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR)

2 The extreme of Absolute Economic Exposure published by Maplecroft in 2011 Japan Taiwan US* Japan * China * 4 Taiwan* Mexico * India Philippines * Turkey Indonesia * Italy Canada * extreme extreme extreme extreme 2 2

3 Maplecroft's Socio-economic Resilience Index mitigate, prepare for and respond to natural disasters Taiwan 3

4 Institutional efforts on science-oriented disaster risk management Preparation 8 Years NAPHM National Science & Technology Program for Hazard Mitigation Phase 1 Phase Chi-Chi (E) Toraji (T) Key elements to follow Integrated research projects, but emphasize feasibility and practical implementation Inter-and-intra government partnership for topics design and implementation Always Learn from Disasters! Mindulle (T) 4 Years Program for Enhancing Innovation and Implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction Historical events Kalmaegi (T) Megi (T) Morakot (T) 4 Years Program for Application of S&T on Disaster Management

5 Investment and Promotion on Sceince-based Disaster Risk Reduction actions based on evaluations 10 9 LPDRP NAPHM (1,2) PEIIDR ASTDR 1 ASTDR bn 3.36 bn 1.48 bn 2.76 bn 3.32 bn Policy white book Annual review report Natural science, social science, engineering, medical science Chi-Chi Earthquake (1999) Typhoon Morakot (2009) bn: billion NTD (NTD 1 bn = USD 32.3 M) LPDRP: Large-scale Projects on Disaster Research Program NAPHM: National Science and Technology Program for Hazard Mitigation PEIIRD: Program for Enhancing Innovation and Implementation of Disaster Reduction ASTDR: Program on Applying Science and Technology for Disaster Reduction 5

6 To identify solutions for focal topics through inventory check on demand and supply of Topics setting Focal issues Typhoon Floods Progress Earthquakes Program on Applying Science and Technology for Disaster Reduction Phase 1 ( ) Phase 2 ( ) Data Model Management Topic 1. Large-scale slope-land disaster Topic 2. Floods Topic 3. CCA and DRR Topic 4. Drought and water resources Topic 5. Earthquakes Sediment impacts and mitigation Flood management platform Extreme weather events Mega quake in urban areas Infrastructure Information Platform Emerging issues Topic 6. Infrastructure Safety Topic 7. Systems of DRM information Topic 8. Nuclear disasters Using Big Data and Open Data Nuclear power, Volcano, Social Economics Topic 9. Emerging issues Evaluation on emergency response 6

7 Legal position of S&T at national government DRR framework (Cabinet) 7

8 How NCDR applies science and technology for disaster risk reduction and management Ministry of Sceince and Technology Propose topics NCDR 100 full-time staff Natural science Since 2003 Social science Engineering Emergency management Business management Supervise Provide operation funds Major services S&T transfer S&T innovation Knowledge base Data base International collaboration Major products Applied and inter-disciplinary research Policy of DRR for central and local government Information integration Emergency operation (not search and rescue) Identification of urgent needs and long-term demands Integration of potential risk maps Partners and key stakeholders Public sector Central government Ministries and agencies Local Government Municipalities and townships Private sector Universities, research institutes NGOs, NPOs Communities International outreach IRDR, ICoE Taipei ADRC, NIED, DPRI (JP) PDC (US) ADPC (TH) NDMI (KR) APEC EPWG 8

9 NCDR works with public and private sector from top decision makers to communities Decision supports Information integration Common operating picture Practical implementations Knowledge transfer to co-work on hazard map Table top exercise to raise leadership Minister Premier NCDR Director Group Discussion Assessment Assessment Premier and President NCDR Director Training Scenario-based drill Evidence-based operation Understanding disaster risk 9

10 Evolutions of Emergency Management in Taiwan - collective involvement among stakeholders Experience-based Risk understanding Science-based Demands on intelligence for impact assessments Information-based Leader: emergency responders Tools: paper maps, radio, fax Actions: evacuations, S&R (during and afterwards) Info source: 911, faxes, news Other stakeholders: limited participation Leader: ERs, scientists New tools: digital risk maps, scenarios Actions: early warning and evacuations, deployments of personnel and equipment (before) Info source: models, readings, Internet, Other stakeholders: invited participation Leader: ERs, scientists, general public New tools: social media, real-time data Actions: risk communication, impact-based preparedness(before) Info source: live videos, social media, Other stakeholders: active participation

11 Innovations on data and information to deliver action for DRR and emergency preparedness learned lessons actions after Typhoon Marokot in 2009 Integrated information intelligence Channels to acquire useful information multiple sources System of systems to integrate information demand-oriented Common operating picture to coordinate actions Potential risk maps for planning real time video + GIS info. Situation maps for operation decisive operations Help to make timely operations Well-organized teams evidence-based decisions Digital emergency preparedness information sharing 11

12 N (data sources) to 1 (unified operation biddies) to Many (diverse users) an example of synergy N kinds of data sources Monitoring data, numerical outputs, physical data, statistic data Social data, geo-data, historical data, Non-structure data (to foresee trend) 1 unified operation bodies EOCs at central or local governments Many diverse users Tailor-made product Citizens Decision makers LNGOs, INGOs Channel to reach users

13 Finance Logistics Administration Foreign aid Medical and environmental aid Coordination with private sectors Agricultural loss and supply Transportation Lifeline system Sheltering Evacuation Search & Rescue Deployment Web Information collection News releas Situation Monitoring Situation Assessment Evlauation General staff One of the key role: Helping emergency operarion Central Emergency Operation Center Commander, Co-Commanders, Deputy Commanders Command Post Chief Staff Division News and Medias Division Operation Division Administrative Division NCDR 13

14 Operation of the CEOC Assessment Group (Typhoon) Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) Situation Assessment Group NCDR summons the meeting Office of Disaster Management Risk assessment Technology Support NCDR Hydro info. of river Dam and pumping station operation. Water Resources Agency National Fire Agency Loss estimation, co-ordination and communication. Directorate General of Highways consultation Central Weather Bureau Dynamic data of Typhoon. The Soil and Water Conservation Bureau Potential streams of debris flow monitoring and warning

15 Situation Repost on Typhoon NESAT No.2 National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction :30

16 After strength increase, NESAT continues approaching to east Taiwan. All models show its trajectory shifting northward. It will make a landfall in Hualien tonight (7/29) Typhoon NESAT (1709), Center Location 22.3N 123.3E, Movement: NW BECOMING WNW 18KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 960 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 38m/s, Gust 48m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 60km. 7/30 08:00 Predictions by regional weather agencies CWB (Taiwan) JTWC (US) JMA (Japan) KMA (Korea) NMC (China) HKO (Hong Kong) 7/29 20:00 7/29 08:00 07/29 06 am infrared reflection NESAT Tropical Depression

17 During 07/29~30, NESAT will directly affect Taiwan Based on forecasts, NESAT will make a landfall in Hualien around 22:00 on 07/29. The impacting period will continue during 07/ Areas to be impacted by strong winds: Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, New Taipei, Taipei, Keelung, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, Miaoli Risk of strong winds 7/30 05:00 wind speed at the level 7 Taipei Taoyuan Hsinchu Miaoli Keelung Yilan Estimated landfall time 7/29 22:00 7/29 05:00 Hualien Predicted path wind speed at the level 10 Taitung wind speed at the level 7

18 Forecast on rainfalls concentrating in eastern and southernmiddle parts 7/30 05:00 3 Leaving 2 Landfall Approaching 7/28/08~7/29/20 1 7/29 22:00 Approaching Landfall 7/29/20~7/30/08 Areas to get high intensity rainfalls: eastern, southern and central Taiwan At phase 1 (approaching): Yilan, Hualien, Taitung, Pingtung, Kaohsiung At Phase 2 (landfall):hualien, Taitung, Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan At Phase 3 (leaving): Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi, Nantou, Yunlin, Changhua, Taichung Leaving 7/30/08~7/31/08 Risk of strong rainfalls Yilan Chiayi Tainan Nantou Hualien Kaohsiung Taitung Pingtung

19 Forecasts and observations on storm surges From 07/29 afternoon: wave height 8-12 meter in Yilan, Hualien During 07/29 night and 07/30 early morning: wave height 4-8 meters at High tide time on 07/29 21 Buoy data of outer sea of Taitung: wave height 8.4 meters increased from 3 meter on 07/ /29 waters near Penghu Buoy data of Hualien Port: wave height 2.6 meters Magong 03:24 15:33 Taitung 09:56 22:32 Hengchun 09:27 22:32 Su-ao 09:52 22:41 Hualien 10:05 22:42 Chenggong 10:00 22:36 Lanyu 10:08 22:44 07/29

20 Approaching & Landfall Potential flood risks Areas could have floods: New Taipei, Yilan, Hualien, Pingtung, Kaohsiung, Tainan, Chiayi, Nantou, Yunlin 07/29 8:00 am- 07/30 08:00 am New Taipei Leaving 07/30 8:00 am- 07/31 08:00 am Yilan Yunlin Chiayi Nantou Hualien Yunlin Chiayi Tainan Tainan Kaohsiung Kaohsiung Areas with potential risks Historical sites of floods Pingtung Pingtung

21 Potential risks of slope-land hazards Areas with risks: Hualien, Taitung, Yilan, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung,Pingtung, Nantou, New Taipei, Taichung Highways connecting to mountainous villages need monitoring, shown below. Disaster spots HW #2 2017/06/01 heavy rains 2016 typhoon season HW #7 HW #7A HW #14 HW #21 HW #8 HW #9 HW #18 HW #29 HW #11A HW #11 HW #20 HW #27 HW #24 HW #9 HW #26 HW #23

22 Using science and technology during typhoon emergency operation Teamwork and dialogues among scientists, emergency responders and decision makers Personnel dispatch Early evacuation Water pump Scientific outputs Cross-cutting synergies In-time operations 22

23 Common Operating Picture through Web-GIS platform to bridge information gap at local level Bookmarks for highlights Situational information Overlapped Geo-spatial information Real-time Data display 23

24 Open Data Platform for Disaster Information (Common Alerting Protocol format) Develop disaster information open data platform ( Combine 14 kinds of alerts from DGPA, CWB, SWCB, WRA, THB, TRA, THSRC and etc. Released a total of 14 categories of instant supporting information

25 Public-private partnership on enhancing information coverage (with Google) Initiation of Open Data in 2013, through Google Crisis Map and Google Public Alerts to disseminate typhoon warning messages. Typhoon Soulik (7/10-14) : number of system access about 1.3 million In 2014, the total number of accessing Google services is around 14 million In 2015, the total number of accessing Google services is around 16 million In 2016, the total number of accessing Google services is around 21 million Google Public Alerts Location-based Google Crisis Map Easy-to-use 25

26 CAP messages CAP messages Structural diagram of PWS in Taiwan Government Agency Alert delivery Broadcasting Applications Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) CMAS / EAS-CAP Types of warnings Cell Broadcast Entity Cell Broadcast Center Big thunder storm Earthquake Debris flow XML API APP developers Dam discharge Internet Gateway Automatic devices Pandemics Int l outbreak Road closure Attack incident 1 Alert Aggregator Alert Gateway C Interface D Interface CMSP Gateway CMSP Network Infrastructure Suspension of office and school Five 4G mobile service provides (15.2 m users) 2014 ~ ~

27 Policy-framework for large-scale earthquake Enhancement on old building Structural safety 1. Seismic retrofitting Citizens safety and support Evacuation and sheltering 2. Early warning & alarm 3. Massive demands Functional continuity government and business 3. Business continuity plan and management Scientific supports 4. Scenarios and impact assessment Practical implementation 5. Perception, drill & promotions

28 Geo-spatial distribution maps of lifeline systems Bridges Highways Power Water Hydroutilities Natural gas Pipelines Pipelines 28

29 Geospatial meshed Data 500m x 500m Meshed Map Sheet Number of Meshes :13,

30 Challenges to work on uncertainties Back swan event (low-frequency, high-impact) Much beyond coping capacities How to tell facts Our cities are aging day by day Infrastructure, buildings, population. Never-ending preparedness, DRR life cycle Generation gaps of DRR knowledge Typhoon vs Earthquake Fading memories, young generation

31 Thanks for your attention 31