Technical support for the Deployment of ERTMS along the core network corridors. Giacomo Potenza (EY)

Transcription

1 Technical support for the Deployment of ERTMS along the core network corridors Technical support for the Deployment of ERTMS along the core network corridors SEETO working group railway and intermodality, 29 June 2017 Giacomo Potenza (EY)

2 Table of contents 1. Who we are 2. What is ERTMS 3. ERTMS business case analysis 4. Experiences of national ERTMS implementation 2

3 1. Who we are 3

4 1. Who we are: The ERTMS Deployment Management Team INECO and Ernst & Young are the ERTMS Deployment Management Team (DMT) to support an efficient, synchronized, interoperable and timely deployment of ERTMS along the Core Network Corridors (CNC) until 2020 DG MOVE INEA RUs, IMs, EU Member States DMT is: Monitoring the deployment of ERTMS Providing technical assistance to EU-funded projects to facilitate a successful interoperable ERTMS deployment Providing economic advise on the business case for ERTMS 4

5 1. Who we are: DMT Technical assistance in numbers Direct contact with different ERTMS projects throughout Europe. Specific return of experience to the Commission, ERA and INEA Dissemination of lessons learned from successful ERTMS projects to all the rest of deployment projects around Europe. 5

6 1. Who we are: Basic principles for ERTMS deployment 6

7 2. What is ERTMS 7

8 2. What is the ERTMS: Level 1 ERTMS Level 1 Continuous supervision of train movement Non-continuous communication between train and trackside Need for lateral signals Train detection performed by the trackside equipment More information at: ERTMS - Levels and Modes 8

9 2. What is ERTMS: Level 2 ERTMS Level 2 Continuous supervision of train movement Continuous communication between train and track-side through GSM-R No need of lateral signals, all information and signals aspects are displayed in a screen in the cab for the driver 9

10 2. What is ERTMS: European Deployment Plan (EDP) Deploying ERTMS is an EU legal requirement Rail Freight Corridors EU Regulation 913/2010 Core Network Corridors EU Regulation 1315/2013 By 2030 CNC By 2050 comprehensive network A new European Deployment Plan setting target dates Workshop Services of on technical ETCS L2 support for Slovenske for the Zeleznice deployment of ERTMS along the core network corridors Ljubljana, 5th April

11 2. What is ERTMS: EDP Planned milestones for deployment EDP target for the Core Network Corridors in 2030 EDP target for the Core Network Corridors in 2023 Deployment status at June 2017 ETCS in operation by 2030 (Km) CNC NETWORK ,60 ATL 8.241,01 BAC 4.681,14 MED 9.270,40 NSB 5.302,73 NSM 6.484,48 OEM 5.829,91 RALP 3.489,44 RDN 5.795,49 SCM 9.507,79 ETCS in operation by 2023 (Km) ETCS in operation by 2023 (%) CNC NETWORK ,85 31 ATL 1.781,50 22 BAC 2.109,18 45 MED 2.978,19 32 NSB 1.696,10 27 NSM 1.644,16 24 OEM 2.739,30 47 RALP 2.366,80 68 RDN 2.069,94 36 SCM 1.928,94 20 ETCS in operation (Km) ETCS in operation (%) CNC NETWORK 3.775,17 7 ATL 682,81 8 BAC 428,90 9 MED 1.089,87 12 NSB 402,99 6 NSM 827,83 12 OEM 90,41 2 RALP 476,32 14 RDN 212,80 4 SCM 452,12 5 ATL = Atlantic Corridor BAC = Baltic - Adriatic Corridor MED = Mediterranean Corridor NSB = North Sea - Baltic Corridor NSM = North Sea - Mediterranean Corridor OEM = Orient / East-Med Corridor RALP = Rhine Alpine Corridor RDN = Rhine Danube Corridor SCM = Scandinavian Mediterranean Corridor

12 2. What is ERTMS: Deployment milestones Status and cross-border sections planned ETCS in operation end 2019 ETCS in operation end 2023 Crossborder in operation end 2019 Crossborder in operation end 2023

13 Km 2. What is ERTMS: Baseline planned in 2030 by country Planned Baseline in CNCs by , , , , , , , , Baseline 2 Baseline 3 Unselected 13

14 2. What is ERTMS: Deployment status Status at December 2016 ETCS in operation end 2016

15 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Km 2. What is ERTMS: Baseline Status in 2017 by country ETCS Baseline in CNC in June 2017 (sections currently in operation) 1, , prebaseline2 Baseline2 Baseline 3 15

16 3. ERTMS business case analysis A Business Case analysis for ERTMS deployment along the Core Network Corridors (CNC) 16

17 3. ERTMS Business case analysis ERTMS: a way to level the playing field with road transportation in terms of interoperability Delays Text ERTMS: first release in 1996 Slow and patchy deployment Decreased trust in ERTMS benefits The need to develop a European business case for ERTMS Mixed national business cases 17

18 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: ERTMS Breakthrough programme The 2014 Commission Breakthrough Programme will help achieving a general standardization of ERTMS equipment The breakthrough programme: developed by European Commission and ERTMS coordinator in response to the feedback of stakeholders on the difficulties of the ERTMS deployment. A realistic and committed deployment plan Stable and mature set of specifications An interoperable and compliant infrastructure A clear and transparent regulatory framework Facilitation of the deployment Delays, Extra costs, patchy deployment 18

19 3. ERTMS Business case analysis Why a Business Case for ERTMS along the CNC? All major investments need to have an economic evaluation National business cases for ERTMS exist, but none takes into account the essence of interoperability along the 9 Core Network Corridors and the European perspectives for all involved parties Supporting identification of the priorities and the correct approach of ERTMS deployment from a corridor point of view Showing the economic benefit of having a coordinated and proactive ERTMS deployment by the relevant stakeholders and contributing to a behavioural change in the railway sector in order to adapt to the competitive environment of the transport sector Enabling better planning of financial and human resources 19

20 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: key concepts Business Case for ERTMS key concepts Core Network Corridor level analysis: The business case based on benefits and costs at Corridor level, outcomes differ per individual country CNC level analysis Railway system perspective: costs and benefits are considered based on the different types of stakeholders (RUs/IMS), the objective is not to separate the cost benefits analysis between different types: the savings ERTMS will provide will benefit the entire system, including final users. Scenario-based approach Business case Differential approach Railway system perspective 20

21 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: the methodology A robust approach based on a continous improvement Studies & Reports: Corridor studies Rail freight corridor studies UIC/ERA studies SCI Verkehr fleet assessment EU organizations CER, ERFA, EPTTOLA PRIME ERTMS costs and benefits assessment Interviews Suppliers: UNIFE, Hitachi Rail Europe, Alstom, Bombardier, Thales IMs / Ministries: CFL IM, DB Netz, SNCF Réseau, RFI, Ministry of Transport (Lux, NL...) Railway undertakings: CFL Cargo, SNCB, DB Schenker, Trenitalia, NTV, Europorte, RTC, Lokomotion Leasing companies: Akiem, MRCE Traffic, fleet and safety data Methods New cost estimations and methods Modelling ERTMS business case Cross-checking with: EC & ERA EU organization (CER, ERFA ) Corridor representatives Interviewed stakeholders Additional interviews to complete the analysis Synthesis of the feedbacks from different stakeholders 21

22 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: scenarios Business Case for ERTMS 3 scenarios Differential approach: a comparison between a situation without ERTMS and a situation with ERTMS. CNC level analysis Scenario-based approach: input data based on robust and realistic information. 3 scenarios have been developed: S1, The conservative scenario: Assumptions for this scenario are based on direct feedback of stakeholders and on lowest estimations of current ERTMS experience Scenario-based approach Business case Railway system perspective S2, The ambitious scenario: Assumptions for this scenario are achievable provided that all stakeholders take advantage of the new system: it is the reasonable target to aim S3, Fully interoperable ERTMS Level 2 network scenario: This scenario is testing the impact of a full track-side Level 2 deployment on the ambitious scenario. Differential approach 22

23 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: results Business Case for ERTMS Results The BC main outcome is annual cash flows representing the costs and benefits of ERTMS deployment over time, in nominal euros. Cash flows are used to calculate three KPIs: The Break-even point is the first year when the cumulated cash flows since the beginning of the model reach zero The net present value (NPV) is the sum of all the actualised cash flows up to the end of the model. The actualisation rate we took in the BC is 8% (the standard in infrastructure investment financial analysis). This rate is way above the inflation rate (1,62%): the NPV presents a way of evaluating an investment, taking into account multiple risks and the opportunity cost of the said investment. The NPV is a decreasing function of the actualisation rate. The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the value of actualisation rate that would make the NPV equal to zero. 23

24 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: results Business Case for ERTMS Results for S2 24

25 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: time span Business Case for ERTMS the time span After this year, all purchased rolling stock must be equipped Starting from this year, suppliers are able to equip locomotives with baseline 3 After this year, all corridor sections must be equipped years First year of the business case model On-board deployment finalised by 2027 Last year of the business case model 25

26 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: main concepts Business Case for ERTMS main concepts Split between RUs associated BC / IMs BC and society is available in the BC No micro analysis at local level has been conducted, but a corridor level analysis Dual on-board deployment strategy for the Business Case analysis 26

27 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: dual on-board strategy Business Case for ERTMS what is exactly meant by dual on-board strategy? 27

28 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: main assumptions Business Case for ERTMS Main assumptions across the 3 scenarios Item Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Track-side Track-side deployment cost: L2 ( /km) On top of the legacy system IMs deployment Track-side deployment plan ERTMS deployment ERTMS deployment "All L2" plan plan Capacity Capacity increase (only for L2 lines) 0% 10% 20% Retrofitment of locomotives Number of locomotives to be retrofitted on the nine corridors RUs Interoperability benefits Interoperability benefits: middle and long term First year for the middle and long term interoperability benefits 5% 7% 9%

29 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: costs&benefits Business Case for ERTMS costs & benefits Costs: Track side and on board deployment costs Upgrade costs Dual system maintenance overcosts* Benefits: Savings on the renewal of obsolete legacy systems Track-side maintenance savings Interoperability benefits Capacity benefits Safety benefits 29

30 4. Experiences of national ERTMS implementation 30

31 Corridors across the SEETO countries CNC corridor sections Extensions of the Corridors BAC = Baltic - Adriatic Corridor MED = Mediterranean Corridor OEM = Orient / East-Med Corridor 31

32 4. Experiences of national ERTMS implementation ERTMS is deploying or being deployed along the CNC by most of the EU Member States to assure interoperability, some countries went even beyond: For replacement of outdated legacy class-b systems and/or safety/capacity upgrades: Denmark (ERTMS full roll-out on-going) Switzerland (ERTMS full roll-out on-going) Belgium (ERTMS full roll-out on-going) Netherlands (ERTMS full roll-out on-going) Luxembourg (ERTMS full roll-out on-going) Norway (ERTMS full roll-out planned) Sweden (ERTMS full roll-out planned) United Kingdom For operations on high-speed lines: Italy (nearly all HS lines) Spain (nearly all HS lines) Belgium (most of HS lines) Netherlands (most of HS lines) France (Paris-Strasbourg line) ERTMS being deployed in the world: China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Algeria, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, India, Morocco, UAE, New Zealand, Nigeria, Brazil, Kazakhstan, Chile, Mexico, Tunisia, Malaysia Source: UNIFE 32

33 Thank you for your attention Technical WSL Silvia Dominguez, Economic WSL Nicolas Gohel, Deployment WSL Beatriz Sierra,

34 Extra slides on 3. ERTMS business case analysis 34

35 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: benefits track-side Business Case for ERTMS savings on the renewal of the legacy system For sections equipped after the full equipment of the fleet (2027), ERTMS is deployed instead of the legacy system (and not on top), which means that the costs of renewing the legacy system are avoided. The comparative approach implies subtracting these avoided renewal costs: ERTMS deployment cost to be included in the business case Avoided renewal cost of the legacy system Actual impact of ERTMS deployment on the overall investment costs - 0 The impact of these savings depends on the deployment plan of the corridor: corridors planning to deploy ERTMS at a later stage can save more money from not renewing their legacy system. Assumed to be equal to ERTMS deployment cost 35

36 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: overall benefits Business Case for ERTMS safety benefits Main sources: Safety Requirement for the Technical Interoperability of ETCS in Levels 1 & 2 (REF SUBSET-091, date: ) Railway Safety performance in the European Union, EUAR (2014) On country level: On-board maximum incident rate: 10^(-9) accident or incident/train/ hour Track-side maximum incident rate: 10^(-9) accident or incident/train/ hour Dividing by average commercial train speed Overall maximum incident and accident rate per train.km X Average cost of signalling-related accidents and incidents per train.km Average cost of a signalling-related accident or incident without ERTMS - Average cost of a signalling-related accident or incident with ERTMS Impact of ERTMS ( /train.km) 36

37 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: overall benefits Business Case for ERTMS interoperability benefits Interoperability benefits are included in the business case as a discount in the operational costs of RUs These benefits have a major impact on the RUs and overall business cases 37

38 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: costs The standardization of ERTMS equipment and up scaling of deployment operations will bring various discounts on the investment and maintenance costs Stable and mature set of specifications An interoperable and compliant infrastructure A clear and transparent regulatory framework Standardization of equipment Up scaling of maintenance and deployment operations Sources: suppliers, UIC, benchmark from Banedanmark EC Breakthrough Programme Discount on track-side deployment costs for Level 2 Discount on the maintenance costs of the track-side equipment 25 % - 50% 20% Discount on the on-board deployment costs 33% 38

39 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: RALP results Investment profile for ERTMS deployment on the Rhine Alpine Corridor from a railway system perspective Scenario 1 Conservative Scenario Scenario 2 Ambitious Scenario 39

40 3. ERTMS Business case analysis: NSM results Investment profile for ERTMS deployment on the North Sea - Mediterranean Corridor from a railway system perspective Scenario 1 Conservative Scenario Scenario 2 Ambitious Scenario 40