BA212: Class 2. An Overview of the Natural Gas and Electricity Industries. The Natural Gas Industry. Gas: The clean fossil fuel
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1 BA212: Class 2 An Overview of the Natural Gas and Electricity Industries The Natural Gas Industry Gas: The clean fossil fuel Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 2 1
2 The Natural Gas Industry: traditional structure Production Discovery, extraction, gathering, processing Transmission pipelines (inter-state and intra-state) Growing role of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Distribution (LDCs) From the pipeline to the end-user Characterized by functional separation and multi-layered regulation Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 3 Natural Gas Usage (2005) Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 4 Natural Monopoly and Regulation Distribution (and retail sales) regulated by states usually cost of service regulation Interstate Pipelines ( sales for resale ) regulated by the federal government (FPC and then FERC) since Production ( first sales ) transactions with inter-state pipelines increasingly regulated by FPC from 1938 to Rapidly deregulated after 1978 transactions with intra-state pipelines and LDCs sometimes regulated by States. Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 5 2
3 Unnatural Movements of Natural Gas Prices Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 6 The Unraveling of Regulation Supply Shortages (NGPA 1978) Common Carriage (FERC 436 and 636) What else did pipelines do? marketing (sales and re-sales) storage risk management Competitive marketing = competitive commodity market no need to regulate commodity prices! Regulation of distribution is a mixed bag Retail choice in some states Core/non-core Hedging concerns Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 7 Transition pains Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 8 3
4 US Natural Gas Production Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 9 The Future of Natural Gas Still an attractive alternative to coal from an environmental perspective Historically different from oil in important ways Continental markets served by pipelines North American market fairly independent of other regions Fragmented production - almost no producer market power Competition issues focused on transportation/pipelines With Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) the market is becoming global Lots of producer market power in the rest of the world Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 10 Unnatural Movements of Natural Gas Prices Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 11 4
5 Natural Gas Production Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 12 Natural Gas Reserves Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 13 World Natural Gas Trade Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 14 5
6 The Electricity Industry The Electricity Industry: Traditional Structure Production Generation the process of converting, rather than extracting, inputs. Transmission High voltage wires. Distribution From high voltage to your living room. Retailing Billing & customer service. The industry has predominantly been vertically integrated across all four sectors. Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 16 Key Economic Characteristics of the Industry (1) Costs vary by resource. Total Cost Gas (CT) Coal Nuclear Q Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 17 6
7 Key Economic Characteristics of the Industry (2) Electricity, for the most part, cannot be stored. End-use demand is very inelastic. Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 18 Key Economic Characteristics of the Industry (3) Physical characteristics of the transmission grid create externalities across grid users. The transmission grid has limited capacity, especially at times of peak demand. For example, when transmission capacity is limited, not all the generators on the Delta can supply power to San Francisco. The more one plant on the Delta produces, the less other plants can. Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 19 Vertical Integration and Regulation Originally, producers needed to distribute to get their product sold Production and distribution linked from the beginning. Coordination issues across sectors (e.g. externalities on the transmission grid) made vertical integration attractive. Economies of scale Prevalent in every sector early on. Still present on the wires side (transmission & distribution). With vertical integration, if one sector is a natural monopoly, the whole industry must be regulated. Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 20 7
8 Market Organization Outside US Nationalized, vertically integrated electric company United States (pre-1998) Investor owned electric company Vertically integrated Regulated by state utility commissions Geographically small (Balkanized network) The Exceptions (US) Federal power: the ultimate exercise in economies of scale Municipal utilities: going it alone Wholesale power markets Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 21 What happened? The golden years ( ) Economies of scale keep driving costs down as demand keeps growing. Everything goes wrong (the 70 s) fuel price shocks: demand stops growing nuclear power and regulatory risk Steps towards deregulation (part II, the 80 s) the 70 s continued PURPA renewable generation least-cost planning Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 22 Average Retail Price of Electricity, Source: EIA, Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 23 8
9 Different approaches give different results Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page Average Residential Prices Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 25 Electricity Prices around the World Average Price of Electricity (2003/04 US cents/ kwh) USA France Germany United Kingdom Japan Canada Australia Norway Russia Italy Switzerland Residential N/A Industrial Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 26 9
10 Where are we now? International wave of privatization No consensus on new model US Energy Policy Act of 1992 toward unregulated generation sales unbundling of transmission what was in the bundle? Radical restructuring beyond unbundling to separation the Independent System Operator (ISO) California, PJM, New England, New York, Texas Chile, UK, Norway, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Netherlands Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 27 Electricity and the Environment In the US in 2004, the electricity industry accounted for: 39% of CO 2 emissions 69% of SO 2 emissions 22% of NO x emissions The industry is also a major water user. Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 28 Location & Size of US Power Plants, 2004 Source: NRDC, Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 29 10
11 Carbon Emissions at US Power Plants, 2002 Professors Borenstein & Bushnell BA212 - Spring 2008 Page 30 11
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