Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 22 nd Annual Economic Outlook Symposium. Automotive Outlook. Will Shearin December 5, 2008
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1 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 22 nd Annual Economic Outlook Symposium Automotive Outlook Will Shearin December 5, 2008
2 Ability to Buy Leading Indicators Nov 07 Nov 08 Disposable Income Green Red Household Debt Red Yellow Yield Curve Yellow Green Inflation Yellow Red Composite Yellow Red
3 Real Disposable Income Per Household % Change Year Over Year % - 1.3% Sept % -8 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
4 Consumer Debt Payments Installment, Mortgage & Auto Leases % of Disposable Personal Income 16.0% 15.3% Sept 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
5 The Yield Curve 10 Yr Minus 1 Yr Treasuries Percentage Points 6 Oil Shock Oil Shock 4 2.4% Oct '57 '61 '65 '69 '73 '77 '81 '85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05
6 Consumer Prices All Items, Not Seasonally Adjusted % Change Yr/Yr % % 3.7% Oct -4 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
7 Consumer Prices: Core Inflation All Items Less Food & Energy, NSA % Change Yr/Yr % % % Oct 0 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
8 Willingness to Buy Leading Indicators Nov 07 Nov 08 Consumer Attitudes Red Red Unemployment Claims Green Red Workweek Green Yellow Stock Market Green Red Composite Green Red
9 Consumer Attitudes Average of U of M & Conference Board Index Oct 40 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
10 Initial Unemployment Claims 4 Week Moving Average Thousands '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
11 U. S. Unemployment Rate Percent Oct '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
12 Manufacturing Workweek Includes Part-time & Overtime Hours Oct '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
13 Stock Market Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 15,000 12,000 9,000 9,177 Oct 6,000 3,000 0 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
14 Energy and Other Commodities
15 Oil Prices West Texas Intermediate 2006 Dollars Per Barrel Oil Shock Oil Shock Real $ 75 Oct 15 Nominal 0 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
16 Gasoline Prices All Grades, Retail Cents per Gallon, 2006$ Real $ 3.11 Oct 100 Nominal 50 0 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
17 Commodity Prices Commodity Research Bureau Index 1967 = Metals* Raw Industrials** 0 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, and zinc. ** Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.
18 Financial Crisis
19 Evolution of Financial Crisis Low Interest Rates Construction Boom Proliferation of Sub Prime Asset Backed Securities Falling Home Prices Housing Collapse Credit Crisis
20 Generation-Low Interest Rates Percent Year Treasury BAA Corporate Bonds (20 yr or longer maturity) 0 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 8.9% 3.8% Percent Adjusted for Inflation BAA Corporate Bonds, Real 2.4% Yr Treasury, Real - 1.3% -6 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
21 Mortgages Maintain Positive Real Return Percent Fixed 8 6 Adjustable 6.2% 5.8% 4 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 Percent Adjusted for Inflation Adjustable Rate, Real 0.6% 0 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 Fixed Rate, Real 1.2%
22 Construction Boom
23 Housing Starts New Housing Units Thousands Aug Jan Feb Jan Oct 63 Jan 91 '47 '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 ' Oct 08 Source: Bureau of Census
24 Backlog of Unsold Houses Slide from Chrysler s 2005 Symposium Presentation (New Houses for Sale) Thousands of Units '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 Source: Bureau of the Census
25 Home Sales Inventory Months of Supply, SA New Homes 10.4 Existing Homes '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 Source: Bureau of Census, NAR
26 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Index, NSA Jan 2000= Composite Composite '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
27 Real Estate Market
28 U.S. Housing Affordability Index Existing Homes Index Sept '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 Source: National Association of Realtors
29 Buying Conditions for Houses During Next 12 Months Index Good Bad Oct '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 Source: Reuters/University of Michigan
30 Homeownership Rate NSA Percent % Q '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Source: Census
31 Foreclosures Started During Quarter, SA % Units Sub-Prime 4.7 Q Prime 0.7 Q '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
32 Mortgage Delinquencies Total Loans with Installments Past Due, SA Percent Sub-Prime Loans Prime Loans '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
33 Auto Industry
34 Auto Loans Past Due 30 Days or More Indirect Loans, Closed-End Percent % '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 Source: American Bankers Association
35 New Vehicle Consumer Prices % Change Year/Year 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% - 2.3% Oct -3.0% '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Monthly Data
36 Auto Affordability Weeks of Median Income '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 ' nd Qtr Source: Comerica Bank
37 Buying Conditions for Vehicles During Next 12 Months Index Good Bad Oct '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 Source: Reuters/University of Michigan
38 U.S. Auto Industry Long Term Trend Analysis Units 20,000 Oil Shock Oil Shock Oil Shock 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Denotes Recession
39 Vehicles per Household United States Number '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 Actual
40 Demographic Decline in Sales Number of Vehicles Sold per Year per 1000 Households Number '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
41 Strong Growth in New Car Buying Households Change in Number of Households, 2006 to ,500 2,000 1,500 1, $150+ $ $ $50-75 $ <$ ,000 < Note: Highlighted boxes are 70% of new vehicle sales.
42 Jan '03 Apr '03 Jul '03 Oct '03 Jan '04 Apr '04 Jul '04 Oct '04 Jan '05 Apr '05 Jul '05 Oct '05 Jan '06 Apr '06 Jul '06 Oct '06 Jan '07 Apr '07 Jul '07 Oct '07 Jan '08 Apr '08 Jul '08 Oct '08 Trade in Vehicle Age Years Source: JD Power
43 Residential and Auto Investment Share of Real GDP 7.0 % 6.0 Residential Auto '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
44 U.S. Auto Industry Number of Vehicles per Year Million Units Oil Shock 15.4 Oil Shock '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 ' Peak to Trough 13.7 Upside Trough 12.1 Downside Trough % Decline % % % % Note: 23% drop from 17.8 = 13.7 Note: 32% drop from 17.8 = 12.1
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