DOCTOR: Developing On-Orbit Servicing Concepts, Technology Options, and Roadmap

Transcription

1 DOCTOR: Developing On-Orbit Servicing Concepts, Technology Options, and Roadmap Final Report International Space University Summer Session Program 2007

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3 !" # # $ $ % & # '( &%#)" ##" *" + & "!",--!!! "##," -. " / 012) 3# ,9::;<:==4>>5: 8(,9::;<:==4>>55 2,"? i

4 Acknowledgements!6 %! # # ;##< $ &$ % &# ;$< ('& +@7& A 7 & 1 $6& ##&!" ' )& 17&#$% 7B &&' C 6&&' ) $&!() B 1$&! ** B#&+ ' # &, --.'(/ 1 )&&'. B6D&-,, '!0 16&! 01 '*.(B %&- ")"!0- &*1 B6&!# 1 A&. E@F &2 &'!3 *! ( + 8!6 % ii

5 Authors! " #C) B+.'F B B& G 3$$ B2 &# #C) 1C B+C B B ' &E )#'' ) B ' &# #C).F B 'C ' B&# 7@@ B )' B & $ C+*F.F B CC &G ) 7+G' $6&7 E 7'BCF 1 #D*H 8 ) ' &' 1DF & 7 E D. & 7@ D'* &$ #DC #C) D1 28 #' &B) B DC7A 2D ' &' #DC B 'CE'..C' B & G 1#+$ )# & B #C) ) ' #&$@ D E'C'F B & # )" 1 ED+. -' 2I8I&#))& #7&# '.C) C) #C) $'.7B.#D ' &C7#. G'D'F)'C B# &B ' E*D ) & J 1C #DC *C7A F ' & # & #.F #C) # *'')'C ) + &C+) D BDB'+7. &6 E'F #DC HD+1 ' )) & ## iii

6 Abstract "! D!& " 2 && "" " +2+" "6 & " )+#+! +2+" &! &B B / 6 " & & & +2+" " & +2+"! C2&B 2&82& " "( 8 " B ( ( " "!2 & B 2 &! " +" '(! & &6 *! / +2+" iv

7 Faculty Preface +2+" ;++<% $ % #! 6" ;)+#+< " #2 ;('..'F<& ;+@ 7C<& ;A 7.<! 6"! 2 ;('..'F<& )+# & & & & ( &! 2!! 6! "! ++6!!! " ( & & 8 " (&2& 2 2! &! 2++6! " " & " K+" ;+<'(6 ' ( & & (! " 2 " 2 " +( 7'+ 2 +7'+"!" 3 " 8! 2++ &%! ( && ( &++! " ( " &2& "'" " " " 2 ++ % ('..'F +@7C A 7. #2# v

8 Student Preface :! #!!; 6/<7 F&"!& $ & " & & ( & 0! :!6&!!! " ", +2+" & 26&!" %! " * &&"! L! "/ &!" & &( &2" ( %!6 +2+" " D!!!! "!.!2'+" &6 ( &"!, +2+" "!! 6 + ( 0: * & "6& 6& &" (!!6 & & &" 2 (!!!6 "%" # &!! ( # / " * 6 A &+@7 " & ('/M 6 N&1#/ &7B /! 2 -* *( vi

9 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION DEFINING ON-ORBIT SERVICING MISSION STATEMENT MOTIVATION FOR OOS PURPOSE AND SCOPE METHODOLOGY SUPPORTING MATERIAL BACKGROUND OF OOS WHAT MAKES A SPACECRAFT FAIL? HISTORICAL OOS MISSIONS MISSION CATEGORIES CHALLENGES ECONOMIC CHALLENGES ENGINEERING RISKS TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND EXPORT CONTROLS LIABILITY, INSURANCE, AND LICENSING SPACE DEBRIS SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVEL STANDARDIZATION CUSTOMER TRUST SUMMARY BRIDGING THE GAP - SOLUTIONS INDUSTRY-DRIVEN STANDARDIZATION TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION THROUGH MILITARY STANDARDIZATION THROUGH PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP ISS ROBOTICS SPIN-OFF INITIATIVE COMMERCIAL SPACE STANDARDS BOARD SPACE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS SUMMARY NEAR-TERM VISION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED SUMMARY MID-TERM VISION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS...28 vii

10 6.3 MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED MID-TERM SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE MISSION REQUIREMENTS ARCHITECTURE TRADE STUDY SYSTEM DESIGN FOR ON-DEMAND ORBITAL REPLACEMENT UNIT SUBSYSTEM DESIGN MARKET ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS FAR-TERM VISION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND ENABLERS MISSIONS AND ACTIVITIES ENABLED SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...66 ANNEX A. FEASIBILITY MATRIX... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. A.1 INTRODUCTION...75 A.2 POLICY CRITERIA...76 A.3 ECONOMIC CRITERIA...76 A.4 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY...76 A.5 INTERDISCIPLINARY CRITERIA...77 A.6 ANALYSIS...77 A.7 MATRIX SENSITIVITY...80 viii

11 Index of Figures 8 020, ,# DG;1A"< >20,C >2,C2++G ,B ,B 2G , B #+! , B # :,+)+ ) ,+ +) >,"+! ,) " =,)+8" O,B , ,"! ) , :, #8! ,#! =20, =2,.# B =2:, =25,82G...65 ix

12 Index of Tables Table 4-1: Cost Model for OOS Delivered by a Satellite Manufacturer...16 Table 6-1: Technologies that may enable OOS in the Mid-Term...28 Table 6-2: Robotic OOS platforms available in the Near-Term...28 Table 7-1: Summary of Systems Trades...35 Table 7-2: Mass Distribution of the Servicer...38 Table 7-3: ORU Lifetimes...40 Table 7-4: Ion engine performance...45 Table 7-5: ODORU Power Budget...46 Table 7-6: Power Consumption of Subsystems...46 Table 7-7: Solar Panel efficiency...46 Table 7-8: Trade-off of Autonomous vs. Teleoperated Operations...48 Table7-9: Requirement of Servicer System (ITU 2007; SLBC 2007)...53 Table7-10: Frequency bandwidth and antenna type...54 Table7-11: Result of link budget calculation...54 Table 7-12: Estimated OOS Annual Market Value...55 Table 7-13: Trade-off Analysis for ORU service mission prices...57 Table 7-14: ORU-like failures in GEO (Sullivan 2005)...57 Table 7-15: ORU-replacement market (Sullivan 2005)...58 Table 7-16: ORU-Replacement projected annual revenues...59 Table 7-17: Project Cost and Revenue until Breakeven...60 x

13 List of Acronyms # # '$ P ' $ ;$@ < 8$ 8$ 8# 8# EB E 6B C' % C!6 2 + " + G G # $' $ ' $+. $. $ ## # # ##* ##6! #'G #!'( G #B' #B'% #B7 #B7 #C # C #+ # +" # # #* #6! #A2+.'G #A2+". '( G % ) ) % ) )# ). )B+ )C) )+#+ )) )+8 ) # )H8Q. ;7 #< ) B + ) C ) ) +2+" #&+ & ) ) ) 8 '# '# '7C+ '.G 'B '+. ' ' ' 'G! 8F & 7'+ 7' 7.+C 7C# 7C 7 7+ D'+ D DG '# '# '7 C + '(".G ' B '. ' ' '" '( 8 F 7 '+" 7"'( 7"+" C 7 &C &# 7"C 7" 7 +" D ' +" D"" D2 G ' # ''' ' ' ' + & ' xi

14 1A 1'( +18 +#B 1'B 1'( B 1'BB 1'BB )78 1# 1# # 1* 1*"" " +'A.''. '' E.'+.!'+"...). ) '.G.G $ ( B$ B" $ $. '.'C' B) B)&)!. 8.' B'+ B '+" B B8) B 8 ) )B B 2'# B '( " # B BBD BBD@. B+. B. C B. B." B B" B ) C C B B+ C) C ) C. C." C'+ C'+"%. C'+ C'+"% C+) C ) # C 8 CG CG ) +)+ +2)+ * +' +" '( * " +# +" # + + +" A' + + "6 +. +" & #B!)78 ( " 2 2 /" # " '( 6E ' 2$ 2$. '. 'C '( 8. '( B )( B B (." C!6 B B B +" %. C 8 ) #+B # A2' xii

15 Chapter 1 Introduction """ 6 " '! "!! "! ( & %. / 0. "! 2"! 6 & &" & & " 2" "!" " +2+" ;++< ++ " "E;4&0< "++M 2 N $%;>&0< ++ M" " N) ;&4<M ( N 7!, / / M N &M# N 8 & " " 2 &!#,- ( "% %;< ++ )+#+/B "%, /

16 ,-9 ( +2+" 3 & & & " D +2+"! 2 2" & ( D!& & " " B& " & ' ++! " & +2+" " "! "" " &++ 2 "" &&2 & & & " +2+"!! " " " ;< 8 ++ && " &! D!! ++! /(,-: 2 +'&" 6 & &&" " & & & & "! ( #3& B "! & " " ( B& 2 ;'+.< *" ++! " " 6" +!6 ( ++&6 " & " ++ & & & ++ &!6!,"!! ++ " ++ > L & & " & &,-; (3. *(!!! " % " ++ C(&! /" "++ " * " 2

17 ,+" ;+<'(& 8 &!, C2 &6 (0 B 2 02:.2 :2> '! 3 ++ & 6 6",-< 2.(,-<-,! 0( " ( & 3 $ 3! &!""! " " " 05 " &!!, & && " (,-<- "22 #0 )+# & &%& & # &! ++ * ++ #: ++ & & & && & & #5 " #: & L L & " #>&4&=/C2&B 2&82 ++ &++! "" "" # B 2,+'( " &! 6 " # O!! 3

18 Chapter 2 2 Background of OOS -, *3(8!= -,-, 3 2' ' & " " 3 &% ;#B'< 00 " /! " 6 ( # #B' '& ) &" '/& " 2' G$6 & A2 &! ;8 020< -,- $!2!.2,/,7 ';&><&M & & ( " & N " / & & / '( 7 +" ;7+< 6 " & " &!3 4

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20 0OO,' ;'2G<&"1 &!!/ " ;F :< ;)<! 3 & +" '(;+'<! % ) % ;)<& ) ) ;))<;) 4< 3 #A+". '( ;#A2+.'G< D )B+' & 23 ( " " 3 " D;.";.< >< '" ;'< " &.;+.<& 6! +" # ;+#<&" #A2+.'G! ( 7 '+" ;7'+< +.%! ' ++7'+! & +C & 7 #;).&) H 8Q. <&) &! # &&E2;A&< 7'+ 2! 7'+&!;><!" -9 ( $. -9-, ( & )+#+ ++ " & ++! #, B B &# B '# ( " ++ &! " ""! 6

21 -9- ( ". "&! &&!& "! " B 6 ++ "" "! # B " 2" # (, ;< A2 G " " 6 -!, 82", # &! # I" ( +, # I" " M N# (2( )+#+ B B ++! # " " ( # 8 + B B ( 6 # & &;7C#<" (" " 6 # " " 8(&2 # &!"+' ; < '& " "! (.! ""! " 2", D, D +'(, " +!!+ 7C#-. '( B, 6# I, & 6&" 7

22 ), 6& 28), & 8)! +, 28)&" +! " #, " " D#, " & -9-: (2.( BB 6 ++ # / "! " 6 # /" " # # /! ; < /!! # " 8 ""! 6 D!& & &( # /! ", B ; ::<, )2+" ;+2 <, 6 2"! 3 2 )2" " 2+" ;B <-, " & 6& " # " " D#, 'G& ' + " " 6 " & " 8 6! " & / "! " & " " & ++ " & " # '+. " " 2" '& " " D!& & &++ M N" " 2" ( / & " "2" "! "& " 8

23 Chapter 3 3 Challenges " " ++! 9-, $ & " ++ #& 3 &" 3 "( ' & & & B " &" "& R!!!R& R!!" R 8 & "6 ( ++! & " &! " ++ " & " ++ " +& " & " "!! R R &! 6! & 6 ;>< " "6 & &"!& % ( &" " 9-.." 8 %! ++ 6! B ++ 6 & "! # 6! ++ & & " 9

24 $ 6!& & &! ;1 < #3& "! ++ 3 "! # " ( "3 ++!, (! ( # 3 " #! - " & & #3& M2N " 28++ &2 (! & && #! ++"! 2! "! D!& 2 6 " " " M N 2 " ++! " 2 " " & ;< " : " # &" C ;0O<&" " " & " " )( ( "!# &++ " + 2 " # & & "! ; & &< B& # "( " ++! ++!,.6 2 ".6 " " "

25 9-; %0 $ "2.;0&0<M" "! ( & N $ "% &2"% 6 & "6& & 3 6 " & " " " B;B<C ;C< " '+.2" " " C/+ B ;0OO>< ) 7'+& 3 3 " " ;8< " ++ " 2" & &"( " ++ 6 " " ++ & & & " 9-< (. &! " # / " " "! "" 7 " #(( "6 "& " ++ &# &!6 8B ++ " 9-3.".;.< "!/ ; && < ".! &! "( &!. + " ++ &. ++ 3! & " 11

26 9->? #& 6& & B B! " & &3 " B ++ 6! # & 6 ( B2+.'G#A&"6 6 6 & #! # 8 & " "" # " 3 " " " ) & 6 3!&!! &! 3 ; <& " 6 ++ "& 8 & @! 9-@ $2 2 " ++" & ( ( 7 &!! 6 6 " &! 6! ++!&"! ++" 9-, " ;(<&" " ( (" 6 " ++! & ' ( ;' B < # ++ " ;#< ( 12

27 SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSChapter 4 4 Bridging the Gap - Solutions & "! ++ " " & ++ ""&! " ( &! (! $ &"++" 6 " " ++ & & 6! ++ &! 6" " "" ( &( * " T /;! <" T / &! % " 2 "" 2 # $ B! ' &! M N :-, 2 /%?! "! " ++" 13

28 :-,-,. ++! "!&! 6 " &" ++!" &" ++ & " &!!"!"! & & 3 6"! " ++" 2 " & "! " & "" " " " &! " " " 8(& 0O=& 1G# GD &"/ $( &! & " &! ;7 0OO><" 2 2" &! " /! "&" " % 6 & "! 6 6 " &! (! " "!!6" " & & "!6 " " &! " ;$80OO5L$0OOO< :-,- 2 / 0. D & " " 2" " ++ "(!" B! "! 6 " ++ & 2 " 2 &" ( "! ( " "!" "&" " 2 14

29 "" " 22 6"2 8 &! "! >U&0U -" " & " 7'+ -"! " C ;C 1 #;1#< < ( & "" "!, ;2 & && < +#;2 & && <. " + * V0> "V0> )* 0U & 3V0> )V0> ) & U 6 7'+ ; # <&! V4 ) M N * "!V> ) & >UV> ).6 0>& " ;2 < 0& V> )&! ( #!! >U 0U & 0>!" VO> )VO )& & 6 >U 3 & V> ) &!6V0> ) 0>&6 V0 &6 " " " "520! # 2 " C1# ;C1#< 6 " && + " &! + " O>U 7 & "6 0 &!! 6 " "&% " & 2 " 3 & ( "&" 6 " "6 '!26 " ( 6 D!& 15

30 !& "" &" 3 ++" 0:/,7$ ( %0 (22 :- 3.%2 32.3( %"! & " + " 6 6 ;< &C B6 &/ "!"( & / "!" ( 7"'( ;7'<&% " % ;7'< ++ (& " + & 6 ++ " +' ++;B <& ++! " ;) 5< &! ( ;) ) #<&" "! 6"" & B "! +', ) %C!6;C'<&! 6!&! " 0O4O!!! &!! ( & ;. :<( D. &") B + ;)B+< " "!)) ' ' ' ;'''<;)B+< &7" ;7< ( " " 7 & " 16

31 "" & "!! " " " " "!" "M &N!2 & ++&!6 " " & &!! ++ &6! "3 2! "! " I! 6 " " " " &! & "& " &" " " ;C-#0OO<& 2 " " " ++ ( " (&!"""!! &! 2! 6! :-9?32.320/ 3 M N " " 2 ;< &" " "! &! 6&!2 &" "%! ++ "% &!!, &3! " &3! " ;! " <!"3 ;02< + "36 36 "6" "!& ( % % %"!! & " &! 36 8(& "% % " "! #1&1# &## 1&! 36" &!" % 17

32 ) & " "!+ & D! "%! % D!& " 6 "% "% 6 & 2 "& & " &! " & & "! & & +& 6" "+ &"!! '("(! 6!! &"!!"" (+2" &! " " 3 + " & 6 +" ) "% 3 & "! " &! "# & " ++ """( " & "&! & & 3 ;6 < ( 6!" "!# ;#<B))! ;B)<2&!# "B) " ;#4< " "% "! ++ &!! "! 6 "!" 6;<! "" " 6 " &"+ "2"! "! ++ " ++" "! " 8&! <" " % 6 % 8 BB ++" B2" B2" &++ 6! ( &! B!" 18

33 ">U;E 4< &7'8!6 # &" % " B&6 3 " ( ;7' < & C B(! B!""M ( "N ;D E0OO< 6 #&++ " ( "++" (! "!! ( & "" :-: "0 / ++ " & # )(& " ( ( & 6 "" #" M!6 N " ;#4"< #/ """ 2 & (" 1D2 G ;DG<&!! " O;1A< 6" ++ % %"! 1 '( ;1A<# DG&3!!& &"!" # #!6 DG 6)( DG.'+ " ++ " "" &" " " ;C-#0OO<B! " " " "!3 &)( " T2/!! 3 &!" " DG 8 ++6& " &! " ;D < " 6 6 & """ "& % "( &D1 *"";1*<! &36 ( & ++ ""!!" ++ " " 19

34 !.2:/,7$2A4'+05 :-; $ #! ", & " " 6 "6" " ' % & & ( ( '# " ( ++ + " ++&& " ;+<& ' # ;'#< ;< " & ) " +1 68;+18< " "! ;+18<* " &", # " 6'#&'''& ' ;'<&+ 20

35 7 "" "!& "! " 6 "-7 &(& )! G ; 3 < 8 ; 6! "" " < # "!# # " ;! B ;"!& < #;#< 86 ' $( $ 8" " & )(" "2 ++;C-#0OO< :-< (.".2 8 B " ++) &% B"! " '+. & " 7'+" "" 6 & " " "++ #&'+. 7'+" "&" "! " &!!"! M N&6"! ++ & " "& 3 ""& &2" '& " & !B ; & ( <&! "! ++ &"( M! IN!"" 21

36 :- 2 B!"" ++ + & ++3 " &! " & ++! " ( 7!2 ( & ( ++"" ( ( B&B"& " ++&! ( ( + " &" ++'2" 22

37 Chapter 5 5 Near-Term Vision + LC2;20<&B 2;02: <&82;:9< C2 ++ " " "! 2 22! " )+#+/C2 (++ C2 )2+" &( &82"& 7C#. '( &D & D# ;8 >20<' ( " ++ ( &6 ""!! " " 6! "'2G 0OO 82"& ( & 7C# )2+" 7'+&7 B '+" ;B'+<&.B" - -! 8 " "! 2=! B 'G" #;B 2'#<8D&B! (D ( D D# D!.2;/,7)/" 23

38 ;-, $2 $5!=4 7'+" (>! ""O;* 5< & " "! & - ( ( " &! " '&BB )"!.'+!" C&#& ' ;'<& 1A 6 "! " 7" C ;7C< - B'+! 7 7" +" C ;7.+C< 5 &!'7! : &C &!2 " " B&!'/B'( O&# C /;#C< 2! "6 "7 " B! 7! ";D( <! "!. ;.<, ' D+" =! C/ 1* 0: G " '/ B20 5&#C/#I " & 1A/ '. 'C '( ;'.'C'< 2" " &C/. +" /;+<#20 = $! & & " " " "0 ;- B$ 0 ;--, 3. & & C2 ++ * ++ C2& " ++ ++!" ++&!"! & & "! " -3 " 8& ++ & " "! "! " & & " 2'#@! 8 &++"& " 2 8 & #!'( G ;#'G< G ;G< " " "! 2 M72#N#, &) &" 24

39 " ++" ;--! C2& ++ " # ++ # " " " 7'+ ++ 7'+6" ( 7'+ &! ( & " +&" ++ 7'+ 2" ++( ++" ;--9! ""! " ++8& "! "! C2&!( "! "! "" &"6 ""!,B " "" " (! ++ &" "6 ++" B& 2 ++ "! ; (<! " ," 6 " "! ;!!6 <&! " " &! " 3 ; 6 < " &! &! " ++ & " "! 6! " & - B)", "!! " ++ + & 2" & & " D 3! " 3 " 25

40 ;-9 ( 0 # '" " ++ C2++" &! & ;-: 2 ++C2 ;8 >2<D!&!!( 3 ++ " ++!.2;/7)/ A 26

41 Chapter 6 6 Mid-Term Vision / &(02: " ++ &"!! ++!! (!! " (++! " " B 2 +'(&& &)&" #! ++ 2 B 2;8 420< &! ( +&! "3 &)&" #!.2</,7(/" <-, $2 B 2& C2&"!!! C C'+" ;) 4< ( B &! " " B ' + ++ " " & 7'+ (.0 C.";C.< +&& ) 7'+&7& " # " " 27

42 <- B$ 0 <--, 3. B 2&! "" " " ++ " "'/#&! "420C & 8 ;4<&! "6 " "!6 M N &"++ B ; " 62 -<& )./. '( B ;.'<&'/ #A2+". '( G ;#A2+.'G<& B/ # B /"6!6 0</, (/ Technology Likely Benefits Informatics and Microelectronics Increased processing power Nanotechnology Decreased platform mass Artificial Intelligence Increased autonomy Biomimetics Improved robotic capabilities Advanced Propulsion / Micro-propulsion Improved manoeuvrability and docking " '", 8++& " &! 2 "! " &! " " ++ ( "42&! ++; B +" ;B+< <! " ;* (4< 0</7"0 03)/ ISS Robotic and Inspection Platforms OOS Platforms Under development Ready for launch SPDM/Dextre CSA Eurobot ESA ERA ESA Robonaut NASA Main arm and Small Fine Arm (SFA) JAXA SUMO DARPA 2 M72#N#, " B 2 ++! " 2 " 2 &!! " ") " " ++ B "! &!" & ; & & " # ++&" +&'# " 28

43 <--! ) '2G&&+'DG& ++ 6 B 2 &! " 7'+ B " +" ""7'+ " +'( 7'+ 5 7' &! 6! 6! " 7'+ ++"!! ;$&1L16&1< 7'+ & B 2&++ ( ++"! "! C# +" ;#+< ( ++ &" & " 6 "! "%! $B 2&" ""$! & " ++ ".'+" & " '"!" 2 " ( ++ & ++ & & & " & &" " ++ & ("6 " ++ & <--9 " C2! 6 B 2 C& &!! ++! " ++ B 2!, )", ( "! ( #3&! &! " " ++ " " &! 2" ++ "++ 6 B 2 8 &2! 6 2 &! " ++ & 3& " " &!! 6 C2&! B 2 " ++ 29

44 2 2"! " & 2 " <-9 ( 0 +B 2& ++! 6 "!6 " 2 ++" &++! ++! 6 3 C2'+"%;C'+<B,8! 6 " C'+ 6 % - ' ++!! " "%;*:< B& ++" 6 C'+ 8 (& % C'+;C C'+<.0 -+", B D ;0OO0& 0< M! " "!'B " "% & ( N D!& " '! " & &! & 6 " B& ".0 " 2 " 2%&B(.0 " & " " B #, " B &! 'I "B 3 B2"! " & 7& " ;B 35< C MBN "! B&;1.0OOO< B " B! 3 ++ '2" " B" D!&! "! " " " " " B++&! 2 <-9-, 2 (0: & &! &" ++ "!! " " ++ ;8 42< & 2'! """++ &(0: " ++ 30

45 !.2</7(/A 31

46 Chapter 7 7 Mid-Term System Architecture +'( 7'+! 8 & & " 2& " " " & " " (( &! " 2" 3 ( "! &" 82 8) + '( " "! " C2 "" 82 +'(! & & +2) +;+)+<& " 6 8 "! ( &! " +)+ +'( "! " ++ -, ( "C2 3! & 6 +'(! " # & # & &" & "" " " "" ; "<& & ""! ( "& " +& 7'+ 6 " 3 '+.! " C2B 2& 7'+! 6"3 " & 3 " 7'+;+< 32

47 - 322 &!!& +)+ --, 32$! 3 + '(!! & "3 " && 6* &!, 3 +& &.'+&7'+ 7+& 7'+ & " 3 " : G! B +; M2N<, 23 "! +!! 2 & /! +" 8 20! G G ; MN<, 3!!" +!3 +"" 2 ; ( <8 20! G + "6.; M+2) +N<, +)+ + / + '+!3 E "6 *3 &+ "( / 8 2! G + D ; M N<, + & / + +)+ 3! +&!! " & # &! (! " 6 / &"" 8 2! 33

48 !.2/,7" ( $ 6!.2/7" ( $ 3!2 34

49 -- % '! " & "! 2" 63, m f r = = EXP v m g I i sp C2,7 8 8D 8C2- "! & & & & O=- &='! &!" & " B #B " C;C1#<.!"( 6 ;. 0OOO< "3 +! O>U )! &! 0U & C G;CG< "! &! "20, 0/,72 Mission Advantages Disadvantages Architecture All Up One launch, one vehicle Must determine ORU suite a priori High economic risk Limited number of ORUs Resupply Can provide large numbers of ORUs Few rendezvous needed Can self-service Must determine ORU suite a priori High launch cost for re-supply Must develop two spacecraft Highest development costs On-Demand ORU Can provide ORUs on demand Low launch cost for re-supply Can self-service Social Security Can provide ORUs on demand Can self-service Technically simple Low mass to orbit Requires rendezvous with uncooperative ORU ORU will be launched to wherever host launch vehicle dictates Requires policy adjustments from satellite operators High economic risk --9 2" 2! 2 6 " & 6! &!" 35

50 " & &! 6! "" "" ( &! 6! " & & +" 6! 6" " &! +)+!" & " $ + &!& "!! +" "! & 6&"&& 3 "&! "+ ( "6! +" #!! " & 0>- 7' " + D!& B 2&! "!! + 6!!& +)+! 3!&! 3 " " &! & 6&3 ( + 7'+&! & +! 8 " "&! " & : --: $ +!! '! "!!6 +)+ 6 & 2"! ; <& D!&!& 6! 8 3!&" &! 3 " " (!&!!3 "; :0< & "!,0< " 7'+ L<.7+ 7'+! L:<..'+ 7'+ 36

51 !" & "" 6!2! "&7'+ &! 3 ( 0>- 2!"EB& "-! "! 3 ( >O- 2.'+7'+! ; ":O-3 D! <&".'+( >U 7+!!!.'+ ">U D!& 7'+! 6 " 4 & (! 22! *!! &! 7+!" -9 %. /% 0" +)+ "! &!" & " " -9-, $ +)+ ( 6! +)+ & & + "62 +)+ 7+!3 7'+! + #&+ "3 + &@!!+&" & 6!! 6 3 6" "" 8 &+)+! 6& (& %. +)+ " 7'+! #! "6 + ( " " + "! "2, ",(0>6W>6 C" +",5 B +,4>6 37

52 .B,>>6 )B,0:6 ',5(06W56 0/7( % 023 Robotic Arm 10% (250kg) ORUs 10% (260kg) Bus system 48% (1220kg) Ion engine 16% (400kg) Ion engine Propellant 16% (420kg)!.2/97 % "% "..08 %. + "6 ;+< "( 7+ 3! EB 7'+&!!2!" ( 3 06! "6 >;> "! 4>6!"2" +! " ;.0OOO< + ++ =(=(> : =(=(0 : & +B$!,.B,06 )B,=:6 +B 7'+,4>6 " + +7'+ L+ " & & &D!& " &" + " & " 3!#& "! & & + ; >/ 38

53 B5< +)+ ""++ " ( +6 7+&! 2: ; & &( #& "6 ;* < " ( & "! 5 "6 -& #& + 8 &! +!,MN M N MN&+!" 7'+& / M N EB!+& +& +" 3!@&2" " 3 EB +"" 3 + " & 3!!&!! " -9-: ( +)+ >& ' + & 6!+" 7'+ & # / & +"! 2 & " * " " " 7'+&! " 7+! 7'++ 7'+ ( : & +&!+ & + " 39

54 !.2/:7 23 % " - "2! &3 &2" /!, 0/97 " Event dt t (days) dv (m/s) M s/c (kg) M f (kg) (days) Launch into GTO GEO Acquisition First servicing mission Drift 3 0 Phasing to Client (10 deg) 8 14 Rendezvous with client 4 5 Docking to and servicing of 4 0 client Letting go 1 1 Drift 3 0 Stationkeeping total 3 Total Average subsequent servicing mission Drift 2 0 Phasing to trashcan (90 deg) Rendezvous with Trashcan 6 8 Docking to trashcan and 1 0 unloading of ORU Letting go 1 1 Drift 3 0 Phasing to ORU (90 deg) Rendezvous with ORU 5 8 Docking to ORU 1 0 Drift

55 Event dt t (days) dv (m/s) M s/c (kg) M f (kg) (days) Phasing to Client (90 deg) Rendezvous with client 4 8 Docking to and servicing of 4 0 client Letting go 1 1 Drift 3 0 Stationkeeping total 14 Total Servicing missions Deorbit Phasing to trashcan (90 deg) Rendezvous with trashcan 6 8 Docking to trashcan 1 0 Mass with old ORUs + 30* 65 Deorbit 1 7 Stationkeeping 4 Total TOTAL (=7.4 years) ( E 4 5 4E >> 7'+3 0: 0: 0= 54 >:!. ) : # ;0< = 5 > ) ) : 6 : 9? C2. ) ;O< 0O 4 = ) ) : +;O< 0O + > = )6 + 0 ) 0 # ;O< 0O 5 = ) ) : 6 05 F(

56 O 5: 0=: 5> >. 9/9 5:> >5 5O:4 9: %0 ;O< 0O 4 = )6 0,.*(& 9:X4> )" ; ; 4G-: 5 < 99, '+ >2>> - ; ) & 4< >>-! 23 0C '+ 0=-! %! =;) 4< 32 " ;!&" " %< 5C->>6&% 7+7'+! 6( 0:.! $ + " "! "! % 7+7'+! " * 0 0 &! " ; "! 2%( < "! #! 0" # &!!" ; "! 2%( # %( ; 2> < "" # & ( 2%( " " " &2 " 2 "!! ""! 6 23 " & "! " & 0=! & 2%( "!7'+ " ;0>4O6<&! & " ( " 42

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58 + # B /" "6! + 6&!& 6& +"! 1! & " 2 %(!(3 " D +&!! & "+ % 6 " "6! 2 +! + C6"! ( ( " &2" "" %0 / & + " " 6! " ( 6"7'+ 3 2 :- ' " & 7 " 56&3 6 :! > + "! $" &O6 +)+ & " B &" "( "&!" 7'+6 " "& " -: 20 %. " " +)+ "! 8 2> 44

59 !.2/; :-, )+! A! &! C >& &!! " ;"25<! " & $ 2";'4< 0/:7.- Parameter Performance Example: Bepicolombo I sp [s] Thrust [N] Power Consumption [kw] Mass per engine [kg] Number of Engines 4 (1 or 2 in operation) 3 (1 or 2 in operation)!6, 6&!" +! " 7+7'+& ( "! "+ -:- &21).$ 7C# & 6& # 6! +& 7C# "2 " 3! # B 45

60 7;#B7< 3 ;02:!< (" " &#B7!&! "! + "! " 6 3 2>2 0-;) 4< + 6+& 3 > & - +! -: !&! 3 "! &!! "2>248! "&!3 6 0/;7 % "6#2. Power [kw] Ion engine 5 Robotic Arms 0.3 0/<76$ 220 Power Consumption [%] Attitude Control 5 Communication 1 Command and Data handling 1 Thermal 1 Power Supply 5 Margin 3 * " &!3! 46*"24 =:U&! "/&5U&! " )!;< 8 & 5*-6'+. >U 0 0/7 Efficiency 23.3% EOL (recent) 35% EOL (Mid-term) Area [m 2 ] Mass [kg] :-: %8.(3 ) # & 6 " ; '2G +" '(<& # F ;&0<&6 ;8 2< ;8 2"8 2< & & 6 & 6 ( ; 26 <! ( &! 46

61 ( 6 6 & % " 2! " 6 ;8 2<!.2/<7%8..2 # 6! ;< &,;"< (;< -:-; "C2 41//'7;'&5O<" 6" & 6" & B 2+! 3 (" & & &! &! & ( & " " 3! ;)+8<& (;0< ( +" & 2+3 ", +; <.2 + " +" "6! !+! 47

62 " *!+62 " ( ( &! " &! 2 B 2 " &"!; $ 5<, B 2, ( " 2 " 2, "! &( & " 6! + " B& 02& +" " ;'2G +'<&2" & &" D!& & 8& " ++ 7'+& "2= 0/>7/22 - Autonomous Tele-operated Susceptibility to error LOW HIGH On-board computational HIGH LOW resources Communication bandwidth LOW HIGH Operating cost LOW HIGH Transmission delays NONE HIGH Range sensors REQUIRED NOT REQUIRED Robustness to uncertainties HIGH LOW -:-< "0"C2 $ 3 & 3 " & "! 20,'+ " 2&! & 6 & 6 # 2 B, & """ + (&""2 &!6 " 2:C" ",!" " 25" )(, '" "3! )+8 2>B, " & &" >6 24, "" +266!! 48

63 2#" #", $"" 2=G, G " "!, " 2 6 2" - " - -:- "0. "0 " & & +! " (! 6 ;! ">U " < & "!/+"! 8 2& " =>" D!&6 3 " "! )+8& """! " 5>&05)+8" O5>" 8 2!.2/7?.3"0 8 & 3! - " & &!" 6 + #!+ * &!!" +&! 6+ &!!!+ # &"! + + " "" + &!" )B 49

64 !.2/>7 %!"0 8 & 3! - & " # ;!" '2G < "" " " &!! 3 &!"" 6 + " &! 8 2O8 20!.2/@7 ( 50

65 !.2/,7! "" &! ! 6! ;#*<&! 6+ + &+ "6 + +!&6 " 6! &! + "6-6 " "! 8 & " " " "%! " & ;! "% "< " " 2+ " 6 A(.(2. G " "!, " & 2 6 2" 0 -& " -!&(!! " 6 6! 6! " "&( &!!" ##)!. 2 ( & B+/ &! "( &! /!! 6 C2 "" + & 6! 51

66 " &!"! " &!!! &!! 3 3 & "! "3! " 5> 0 +# &!!+ $! +/ :! "6 +&! >! # 4 +/! "6 +&!6 + =!.2/,,7 "063%! "3! " " 0 B!+! : > !+ =! O + 0 6!+ 00 7# 0!+ 0: ( >! = + 0O ( 52

67 "6! 0 " -:-> $2 ) 3 " +& +)+ &! + &2.! 7'+&! " &! 20 P Q R!.2/,7&2!., 6 L!! 6, L +! 6 ="!2( &! + 2 # "! &! # 6 + ( '" " &!! " & &2 6" "! + + &!2!"! &! "" ;"2O< 0/@7"C2 4H#$5 Description Concept and parameter Uplink Control the bus sub system 9600bps Emergency Teleoperation of Robotic Arms Autonomy is used nominally Teleop: 9600 bps Downlink Telemetry 9600 bps Real-time video image of at least two cameras and other sensor data 10 Mbps for each camera, Video transmission Crosslink To locate the ORUPP 100bps 53

68 $2!C2! 3 3 3"! " 3 "! 8 6 & 3! "BD@;.2"<&"!! "0=6" 6! 3 ; " 20< 0=BD@;.2"<! "! 456" 2 3&" :4BD@;2"< 2!& "! =B"&!"!, 0/,7!C2063 Description Frequency Bandwidth Antenna type Uplink Uplink commands and data 2000 MHz 128 kbps Columnar helical Downlink Telemetry 2180 MHz 64 kbps Columnar Sensor data(include Realtime video, radar data, and other sensors) helical 3600 MHz 80 Mbps Dish Cross link Localize the ORUPP 900 MHz 100 bps Columnar helical 8#2. $';$ '< 6"024;<& 6 " "200&. 6$#;.$#< 0/,,7" Up-link Down-link Video Comm. Cross-link Transmitter [W] ,01 Transmitter Antenna diameter [m] 9 0,5 0,8 0,2 Channel frequency [MHz] Bit rate [kbps] ,1 Link margin [db] 28,80 22,3 7,2 8,1 Reciever Antenna diameter [m] 0, ,3 Signal to Noise [K] ; (8 $ 6 ++ ;>< V:" ) &! #!;4< V:=" ) 7'+ 6 ( ( ++! " " ;$&1< ++7'+ 6& ;>< 0OO5K:&5 " V5= )&"V0 ) ++ ( & V> " ) 3 &6! ;#!4< (& -!2 " & 6" 54

69 "! &! 6!, &! 3& "! "! 6 6 ;>< "62 ++(V: " )&! 26" & 7'+& +'( * /"&% &!! M N ; ><& + 4U 6 0/,,7 2(8A2 Sullivan Team DOCTOR Break-Even Servicing Average Annual Annual Market Service Category Service Category Fee ($m 2007) Opportunities Value ($m) Refuel 2D, 2E, 2F - Refuel Remove Inactive 3A, 3B - Deorbiter / Reorbiter ORU Replacement 2B - ORU Remove/Replace General Repair 2G - Depot with Spares & Tools GEO Retirement 3A, 3B - Deorbiter / Reorbiter LEO to GEO Transfer 3A, 3B - Deorbiter / Reorbiter Relocation in GEO 3A, 3B - Deorbiter / Reorbiter Deployment Monitoring 1B - Proximity Ops Deployment Assistance 2G - Depot with Spares & Tools Health Monitoring 1A, 1B - Flyby, Proximity Ops Total ; >L < 2, ;-,. "!! 6 + &! "6, 0< '! ;"6< < ' " ;!< * ;><6"6 &!! & 6 *! &! ( &!, 0<. 6!! <. 6! &!"! ) & 7'+ V: )& & ;>< 7'+ 020>;2 3< $! % & % & 6!!! & & I! &!!"! 55

70 ( &! 6! ( "! & + & 6 (! 2,!.2/,97 2 $ 3!6 "! &! V: )! 0 V> ) & " + " &! "!, + 0 V> ) " &! V> ) 8! &!! V: )! +'(&3 V: ) +'( &!! ;<!!"!!! *! +'( (" >U!6 6 &! 2 22 *% + '( ( >U 8 205"! 56

71 0/,7/ " Fuel ORU Trade-off Analysis Other ORU Trade-off Analysis new satellite cost (USDm): $300 new satellite cost (USDm): $300 new satellite lifetime (years): 12 new satellite lifetime (years): 12 satellite revenue per year (USDm): $49 satellite revenue per year (USDm): $49 service mission price (USDm): $36 service mission price (USDm): $139 years of extension: 2 years of extension: 5 IRR of a new satellite: 10.6% IRR of a new satellite: 10.6% IRR of service mission + new sat: 13.2% IRR of service mission + new sat: 13.2% IRR improvement over new satellite: 2.7% IRR improvement over new satellite: 2.7% % improvement 25.3% % improvement 25.2% ++ 06& 4>6&! +!! ( &+!! ( 8 205!, 0<8+,V:4 )! ( &V0= )- <++,V0:O ) -;- "2.(8 0-: "62++6&! &"! ; ><&!! +! 6 /"62 V5: ) ( & " "V5O );'7"LL'&< + 2!!&! 3 " +( & 2 6 6( ; B2+.'G <;#!4<! " ( & 6 2 -;-9 3 " ;><! "52> +2 6 D!&! " +2 6, 0/,:7 "/82 & 42;5 ORU Failure Occurrences Solar array 15 Control processor 7 Wheel 7 Battery 6 Transponder 4 Antenna 4 Payload sensor 1 Payload sensor 1 57

72 +! +&! +"", ;0<8+ ;0<+ ;0<#+ ;0<*+ +! + ( +3", + M2N+ + ( " "67' (& " ( "0 ;>< &7'+ ( +2 6 "6 "V0 ) 8 V> )! 02 & &! & "" &! 6 & &!!! ; >< $!&!! "! / "62 V= )&! " "6 "( " & V> ) -;-: (83 ;><& +26& 52> 6"!;"205<, 0/,;7 "/842;5 Team DOCTOR Estimated Service Fee Average Annual Annual Market Service Category Per ORU ($m 2007) Opportunities Value ($m) 2D, 2E, 2F - Refuel B - ORU Remove/Replace Total , &!! 6( 6 *!! "" ::U+26&2 " &! 30> >! " &! 0>U 62 " &"20> 58

73 0/,<7 "/"22 Team DOCTOR Revenue Annual Service Mission Per Mission ($m) Revenue ($m) ORU Replacement ORU Replacement Refuel 36.0 Refuel 36.0 Year 1 of Operation: ORU Replacement Refuel 36.0 Refuel 36.0 Refuel 36.0 Year 2 of Operation: Average ;-; ) A2! +)+ +! &! " (! +"&+ " >&! " 2 & (!"3! - "+ &! " & 2 ; "6+! " # < CG +)+! & ( & &!,.7+ V5&)6 ;.0OOOL >< + V0 ) O>U + 0U. 0:U. " V0 ) * " +&CG % 0> V: )&! 0=U"6 "O> %& "5> " ( " 2 &! CG % " ;8 20>< 59

74 0/,7$ "22#8 $ million Develop Build Launch! Launch 4 ORUs each year after Year Non-recurring servicer (62) (111) (91) (46) (10) Non-recurring ORU (10) (19) (15) (8) (2) Servicer production (86) Servicer launch (102) Servicer launch insurance (24) ORU production (37) (33) (32) (31) (30) (29) (29) ORU launch (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) ORU launch insurance (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) Liability insurance (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) Operations (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) (10) Total cost (73) (130) (106) (54) (134) (207) (79) (78) (77) (77) (76) Total cost cum (73) (203) (308) (362) (496) (703) (782) (860) (937) (1,014) (1,090) 10% (73) (191) (278) (319) (410) (522) (566) (606) (642) (675) (704) Total revenues Total revenues cum ,268 1,567 10% F' 2 &! &! "" + &! & +&CG &" 3!V45 )&"6 %&"F0: &"!!! & " +)+!.2/,<7$ 36 -< $ &!! " " 6 6 " ( &!! " & 6 6 " ( " 6! ) & " 60

75 !&" " &!" " ""!" %! ++!6 $ 6 & 6& ( &" "" -" " ""- " " 8! "! "! -! 6 6 'L!" " "6* ++! " "! 6 61

76 Chapter 8 8 Far-Term Vision ( "'/ &" "! ( (:2>! 6! &++" 3 ) "! / ( ""++ &!++! C2B 282& ++,8)+ '" ; 8 =20<!.2>/,7!/" >-, $2.2 & C2B 2! &!C BB B 2 " #4" & " " &! ++ >- B$ 0 >--, 3. 82& " " ++ 8& ++! "( " BB &(! " "

77 >--! 82 " 82!++ + " 82& "! 6"% 52=6.'+" 7'+" ("! ( " ".'+" % 6 7'+" "@7'+ "!++ " "++ # & & & >--9 #4 B 2& " & 82&++! " " ( &! " " (" ++ " "!2 6 2 >-9 ( 0 $ 82 & "2"! " &" " " C'+,C'+ 2 ;G < ;< 2" "! " C'+ )BB, "! " " 6 3 " I! 3!2 "".# B, BI " 3 ( " B 3!! "! ' " 2"! B!" " "6'" &! " " ;8 =2< 63

78 !.2>/72.2$. ( ', 82& '" D!&" "( & &" (;'!<! " 6! >-: 2 82!! "" "++ 8 =2:=25!! C2 B 2 & B & & & 6 & $ &++! " 2" ++& ( " 64

79 !.2>/:7!/A 65

80 Chapter 9 9 Conclusions and Recommendations +!&)+#+! ( ++ D, 48 6' '2A."7K'( Y "72'( Y 4. /''2 "7K'( Y> 40?:!/ 6// //.7K '( Y0 4.1'!..<7K'( Y> 48 <7K'( Y: 48 /.!/. / "7K'( Y0 4, 2 '<7K'( Y5 46./ /"7K'( Y0 " "3& " & " & ++ (F&!/ 7'+ 0O4:&" " ++ ;$ LB 60O4OLE 0O44< & 2 " 7'+ V" )&! ( V>" ++ / F& " & ( &! ++& 62! + * " " '! D &! " 66

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82 : !6 %2" & " 7 %& "! 2 ++ & ( &! 2 " " *6 &%, ; / & ++ " " ++ "" "&! & )+#+ 6!!6!!

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

86 E &B4&,&#CC&!0>& Z,--!!!-4-'#D- -0-:-!- ([ E&#4&''!' ''& 405>5 E&G4&T2# # /& 01 &D&(& E&$8&H&8&6&&*&1&7&&) &1&D6 &1#&)4& T# 01/&# &.&*10OOO&,-&B &# &:02>0=.&B0OO&3&#CC2 2&!>& Z,--!!!-'#D-O>->-%- ([. &$B&# &G7&#6&))&E&'&E 6&.&.&)#&&1&"&.7&* &:&&!0& Z,--!!! - - -" [. &#&T# '/& &)" & B &)6&BD0O4O&(**/' *, )&#0>2:& $4O0:&$&& 1: B &*&TB 2 "&2"!6 8."/& :::000 &B& B 6&5&(8 D$,&!0& Z,--!!!-" --SS5[ B&E4&TB'( 1A/& 01 &D&(& B&**D && &C 1#D&A>=&!>& Z,--%-D'(-'( -'A. "-)+#-'#5DB.[ C&B&B &&E!6 E&C&'EE0OO=&TB8)" 8 '( /& 1 010! &*&"33&C!B( & C&B0OO=&* J,%-K&C ) 16&!05& Z,--!%-'+*-050=->OO>-!!!%-- ---O=- -00 [ C-#0OO&,/'J,K&J$K - &!05 &Z,--!!! - --[ C1#;1#<&#&!05& Z,--%-[ CB'&#,01(',& Z,--%-- ([ C+ B 0OO>&$ / /&C C0505&!0& Z,--!!!" " %- "-C05S05-05S0520OO> [ CC2'+"%;C'+<&#0*/ '-'&!0&Z,--%--[ +1 68;+18<&'( * J*K#&,99&!>& Z,--!!!3 -% - "SS:02:[ 72

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

88 * &)5&T+" / #. '( /& (' &.&E *+>&8 *8 &:&: F6&E0OO&T@ 1. G & 7 &C #/& 90 &C! %6&C F E:&T' G8 '( ") #,."$F&C! +" /&3 (/( H &)&E&&>&T@&#2 ",&8/& 01 D )-'&+& H&F4&T /& 01 &D&(& 74

89 Annex A 10 Feasibility Matrix -,2 " ( ( " " " " :# L & & &! " * & " % " (" " ;C2&B 282< " ( " & & " " (!! 2 ;2>< 0:&0 " ; " <& &: "! "- " 8! ;. <&""!0>! & " " ; <! " & &2" &(% ;< '3 20 S n i i= 1 = n s w i= 1 C2/,7&2$.C2! " " ;%< "! & '3 2 m F = g i S i i= 1 C2/7"! 0C2!! & " 3 30 w i i 75

90 -$ C & & " & ++ "! " ++, L. " &&. L B)" L )2! " L " & & " -9$ &! 2 ++ & 6& & & - * " 6 & & &! ++&! & &!!, 8.# # # " -:3! 0 " ++ " "! " ; >L 6 0<!!, )+ #

91 -; $ " L!&( ++ " " & & ++ &!!6! L G# &B &# # ) #3 L G " & & "! -< " ( "6 & " " " 2 8 " ( "& 3! > & "" "! (0 B %!"6!! " (! 8 20 ""! 8 2 " ".'+7'+!" L!& ".'+ ++.'+. &! 6 +'( ".'+7'+ +'(8 2:"! " 7'+" & -!! " L ( & " & " 2"! " %! " ( )2+" B " ++ " )2+"!!

92 $! " # $ % -. / / / / 0 1 / / / / / % / /4 5,3 () 5)3 > % 0,3 ' $ 0)3 % $ 03 + ;#?$ 6> A #(, 0;3 %(% = # 0'3 %(% 03 %(% ' 4,3 A 4)3 A+ 43 ' #! 6% : '6% : ;6% / /5344 6< :352 6% : % : '6% : :8 ;6% : /7 6< : % : % / / 453/7 '6% / :/ 0:3/7 ;6% / :/ 0:3/7 6< / : /13/4 6% /2 5503:0 6% : 9/322 '6% / : ;6% / / : 50438: 6< : : % / / / % / / /2 9230/ '6% / / / /2 7837: ;6% / / / /2 55:3/4 6< / : :8309 6% / / / /4 6% / : / '6% / /2 953/4 ;6% / / < / : : 893/7 6% // % : // '6% / // 8/318 ;6% / : : < / / : 893/7 6% / / : 6% : / /8391 '6% / / ;6% / / / 6< / / / % / / 8:30/ 6% / 1/375 '6% / / ;6% : : : 8738: 6< / : :/ :5385 6% / 9:322 6% / 183/4 '6% : / 1437: ;6% : :/ < / / / ::391 6% / :318 6% :/ 0:385 '6% :/ 0:385 ;6% :/ 0:385 6< / / : /9322 6% : 50/391 6% : : '6% : : 52537: ;6% : :7 5/1344 6< % : // 5243:0 6% : // '6% : // ;6% / / : < : : // % : / 6% / '6% / ;6% < /:344 # $!.2/,7! 0 $ &! ##" '# ( ) ##" $ & * $ * +,### * 78

93 GEO LEO Feasibility level Fly-By Proximity Ops Human Servicing Orbit Replaceable Unit Remove & Replace Propulsion / Guidance, Navigation, Control Extension Module Refueler (One-time Use) Refueler & Depot Stand-Alone Fuel Depot On-Orbit Depot with On-Orbit Robotics On-Orbit Human spares and construction construction tools De-Orbiter (One-time Use) Re-Orbiter (Multiple Use)/Space Tug Human Capture & Return GEO!.2/7! 0 3.( & Feasibility Score Policy Feasibility Economic Feasibility Technical Feasibility Interdisciplinary Feasibility 0.00 LEO MEO HEO GEO EXP Orbit Type!.2/97)/! 0". "3.A LEO MEO HEO GEO EXP 0 3A. De-Orbiter (One-time Use) 3B. Re-Orbiter (Multiple Use)/Space Tug!.2/:7! 032.%/0 79

94 -( "& " ("!6 " ++ + " ( &2& >! "! Cost 5 Innovation Schedule 0 TRL Risk Near term missions Long term missions Support!.2/;7*.3$).(!!6! (! & &( (&! %!, & &! 8 24 " 2 8 2:! ( " &!!"! +&6 & " " Feasibility Variation [%] Human Servicing (LEO) ORU (GEO) Refueler for one-time use (GEO) Civil Military Commercial Academic OOS Mission Examples!.2/<7 " 2 ( 80