The Last Mile Access Is Copper at the end?

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1 The Last Mile Access Is Copper at the end? Olivier GORDIEN Tendering & Sales Support Director, Alcatel South Asia ITNSP Symposium, New Delhi, November

2 Alcatel s Vision in Mature Broadband Economies The World is going BROADBAND User-Centric Broadband Services Broadband Services New Services Adoption Voice and Data Services High-Growth Economies: It is happening all at once Time Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 2

3 Telecom industry is evolving: Service Transformation with advanced broadband applications At home Require advanced network architecture and service management capabilities Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 3 In the office On the go

High-Growth Economies: a Strategic Focus FACTS Broadband is a necessity for economic and social growth A worldwide market of 6 billion people E-health Currently under-served, with only: 2.

4 High-Growth Economies: a Strategic Focus FACTS Broadband is a necessity for economic and social growth A worldwide market of 6 billion people E-health Currently under-served, with only: 2.7 billion cellular subscriptions 1.2 billion fixed telephone lines 210 million broadband subscriptions E-education E-government E-environment E-business E-agriculture Source: IDATE, 2006 E-employment E-science Source: ITU E-applications Alcatel: a Partner for Network Service Providers to Deliver Broadband for All Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 4

5 As Telecom Can be a Transformative Force GDP Drives Telecom BUT Telecom also Drives GDP Connecting communities has the potential to bring in wealth to those communities Create new business opportunities for both the urban and rural communities Improvements in Healthcare and Education particularly for rural communities Improvements in Government related services E-Government Public Safety/Security Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 5

6 Service Providers Need to Address 3 Different User Segments, with 3 Distinct Value Propositions MOBILE USERS INTERNET USERS BROADBAND USERS Voice & Data Broadband User-Centric Broadband An architecture to deliver a compelling value proposition to each user segment Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 6

7 Opportunity for High-Growth Economies Leapfrog to Latest Technology Leapfrog to Latest Business Approaches Radical Cost Efficiencies Most Innovative Services Beyond Fixed and Mobile Innovative Partnerships Network, Service and Business Transformation to Address All Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 7

Focus on Broadband Access: Four Drivers of

Public initiatives and policy TELECOM POLICY

8 Focus on Broadband Access: Four Drivers of Mass-Market Adoption with four key players 1 Public initiatives and policy TELECOM POLICY MAKERS 2 Adequate and relevant content CONTENT PROVIDERS 3 User awareness and expertise PUBLIC EDUCATION 4 Services affordability and accessibility NETWORK SERVICE PROVIDERS Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 8

9 1 2 3 Broadband Players Trends: 3 strategic moves Fixed On the pause Full Mobile Fixed operators / ISPs DSL Fixed operators / ISPs expanding BWA MVNO Mobile operators FVNO BWA EDGE/HSDPA Mobile operators expanding 2G/3G Integrated operators DSL Fixed+Mobile+ISP association with convergent services BWA EDGE/HSDPA 2G/3G Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 9

Prepare to Deliver Advanced Services to Mature Broadband Users Delivering a new user experience at home, in the office, on the go Example: Triple-Play delivers a new TV experience at home

10 Prepare to Deliver Advanced Services to Mature Broadband Users Delivering a new user experience at home, in the office, on the go Example: Triple-Play delivers a new TV experience at home Towards HDTV TV becomes personal: VOD, PVR Community viewing and content sharing Towards unlimited bandwidth Requirement for advanced reference solutions Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 10

11 IPTV users forecast per geography 35 Million Alcatel forecast 29,1 30 M Europe & South North America APAC 25,8 25 M 20 M 15 M 10 M 5 M 0 18,2 10,1 7,1 5,2 3,13,2 5,8 3,2 1,7 0,29 0,84 1,2 1,7 16,5 14,6 10,1 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 90% of wireline broadband service providers to offer IPTV services by % penetration of IPTV into all DSL Households by 2010 Compound 5% penetration of IPTV into TV Households by 2010 Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 11

12 Access Transformation is required - Bandwidth Explosion Demand estimate by Downstream increase drivers SDTV HDTV Basic HSI Gaming Multimedia surfing Video Conf., learning Home working 2 Mbps/channel 6 Mbps/channel Mbps average 2 Mbps/session 8 Mbps average 3 Mbps/session 4 Mbps average Drivers: HDTV, MPEG4, latency needs & peak usage SDTV Basic HSI HDTV Upstream increase drivers Personal content upload Gaming Multimedia surfing Video Conf., learning Remote home monitoring 0.2 Mbps/channel 2 Mbps average 0.5Mps/channel 3 Mbps/channel 2 Mbps/session 2 Mbps/session 3 Mbps/session 0.5 Mbps/call Drivers: peer-to-peer applications Increased bandwidth needed despite improved compression techniques Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 12

Technology Impact is huge: Breaking Access Bottlenecks On ongoing tranformation of the Access Network Consumer s Digital Home Millions of users Provider s Service Offering Millions of bytes

13 Technology Impact is huge: Breaking Access Bottlenecks On ongoing tranformation of the Access Network Consumer s Digital Home Millions of users Provider s Service Offering Millions of bytes Downstream 1 HDTV, 2 SDTV 16 Mb/s 2 Gaming channels 512 Kb/s VoIP Video 2 Voice calls and Visio 220 Kb/s Gold IP High Speed Internet 3 Mb/s Bronze ON-NET Total 20 Mb/s Fiber in Access breaking bandwidth bottlenecks IP in Access breaking scalability bottlenecks Digital Home Care breaking operational bottlenecks Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 13

14 Broadband access technologies at a glance Access technology portfolio 2400 FTTH 100 VDSL 2 Capacity per home 40 3G LTE + Capacity per Cell G LTE WiMAX HSDPA UMTS Data Rate (Mb/s) ADSL2+ ADSL2 ADSL SHDSL RE-ADSL Loop Length(km) reach (km) (Basis: Frequency Band in the 2GHz range, using 10Mhz) Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 14

15 Access Transformation Full Service Coverage CO Cabinet MDU/OSP % of homes 3.0km CO (Europe) 80% VDSL2(*) ADSL2+(*) 9Mb/s 1.5km CO 20% 25Mb/s 18Mb/s 1km FTTN 80% 50Mb/s 24Mb/s <0.5km FTTB/C 100% 100Mb/s 24Mb/s FTTU/ GPON 100% +100Mb/s (*) maximum theoretical downstream bitrate Fiber-to-the-Most-Economical-Point Solutions Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 15

16 Expand Broadband Footprint for Mass-Market Broadband Need to Combine Different Broadband Access Technologies Today: Urban areas (early adopters) Extensions Urban/Suburban (mass-market) Areas with copper Greenfield areas Central Office ADSL2+ Served from Central Office and Multi Dwelling Units (fiber-to-the-building) FTTN FTTU ADSL2+/VDSL2 Extend Central Office footprint with cost-effective FTTN extendable with remote sealed units GPON Greenfield areas Optimize Access Network for Every Deployment Strategy Extensions Rural/Remote Communities (mass-market) WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 16

17 Expand Broadband Footprint Beyond Copper: Leapfrog to the Latest Broadband Access Technologies Greenfield higher density areas: Greenfield lower density areas: Leapfrog to FTTU: Leapfrog to WiMAX e-2005: FTTU GPON and Fiber-to-the-Building Provides affordable broadband: share fiber cost and civil works over many users (up to 1,000 Not subject to cable theft, Same subscriber management as DSL Up to 20km from central office Access Technology Innovation Operators engagements in FTTx Best wireless broadband technology for fixed service: Superior indoor penetration (non line-of-sight technology) Self-installing CPEs More efficient use of spectrum (SOFDMA) Commercial deployments in 2006 Supporting carrier-grade VoIP services from day one Joint-venture with C-DOT in India: end-to-end solutions for high-growth markets worldwide Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 17

18 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fiber in Access deployments starting worldwide FTTN - VDSL Share of DSL FTTU - deployments worldwide DSL Port Shipments, Industry Total NA GPON deployments Verizon, Bell Canada, AT&T,Qwest, Municipalities Upgrades/Replacements (ADSL2+) ADSL/ADSL2+ VDSL Dell Oro 2006 EMAI FT Paris pilot Telefonica lab trials, Nordic Citynets Kuwait MOC APAC Japan NTT deploying EPON China, Singapore, Preliminary trials Very High Speed with Fiber to-the-most-economical Point Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 18

19 Combination with Wireless Broadband Technologies High rate data Low rate data WiMAX 3G 2G Not one technology fits all Opportunity to leverage 2G assets Need flexibility to adapt to fast changes in services in capacity Voice 2G Best Answer is Multi-Standard Radio equipment Urban Suburb Rural Remote Mapping wireless broadband technologies - most cost effective by data rate and environment - high data-rate means more than1mb/s - logarithmic scale Source: Alcatel Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 19

20 Access Technology Innovation WiMAX e meets versatile market needs Residential and SOHO WLL VoIP Broadband Internet e-2005 Mobile TV/Games, Mobile office All Mobile e-2005 Wireless DSL Home & Office Mobile Broadband WiMAX : Worldwide Interoperable Microwave Access Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 20

21 Technology Impact is huge: Convergence in Access 300 million NGN voice replacements by 2010 VoIP Gateways - worldwide forecast Access & NGN Voice VoIP lines (Mio) '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 VoIP over DSL VoIP over Fiber: NGN C5/ PSTN emulation Source: Probe Group LLC, Note: Forecast excludes VoCable VoIP over DSL for high-end triple play users and 2 line voice service Japan 10M : 56% of BB users Brazil 2M : 66% of BB users France 1,2M: 15% of BB users VoIP over Fiber is the default FTTU model NGN Class 5 for cost-optimized optimized black phone convergence Access Media Gateway line shipments doubling every 2Y Source: Dell Oro, August 2006 Converging IMS & IPTV at access is the most popular solution (as) it puts intelligence at the network level Source: IMS opportunites & challenges 2006 (Informa UK Ltd) Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 21

400 300 200 100 0 Access Transformation:

access product (MSAN) VoIP gateways Worldwide

VoIP lines (Mio) VoIP o DSL: Value Add services

Greenfield or copper replacement X ONT PON IP Edge

Access Gateway PSTN X ISAM VoDSL High QoS Media

22 Access Transformation: Integrating all voice technologies in one single access product (MSAN) VoIP gateways Worldwide forecast Alcatel Vision Softswitch signaling X X VoIP lines (Mio) VoIP o DSL: Value Add services Hybriphone X SIP phone HGW HGW X VoIP over Fiber: Greenfield or copper replacement X ONT PON IP Edge Source: Probe Group LLC Note: Forecast excludes VoCable. PTSN/C5 emulation: OPEX & obsolesence X VoIP Access Gateway PSTN X ISAM VoDSL High QoS Media Gateway (packetization) Signaling Gateway H.248 & SIP Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 22

23 One Service Delivery Architecture for Fixed Service Providers to Enable Mass-Market Broadband and Deliver Advanced Services Universal Broadband Access Service-Aware Edge and Transport Open Service Delivery Environment FTTx DSL WiMAX IP Aggregation IP Routing Transport Service Enablers Service Operations Applications Enable Mass-Market Broadband Affordable broadband internet VoIP Delivering Advanced Services Triple Play Convergence Managed Communication Services One IP Architecture for Fixed Service Providers Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 23

24 Conclusion

25 Leading Transformation Projects Across the World Services Network IP & Multimedia Portfolio Network of Partnerships Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 25 Services Integration

26 The World s Premier Wireline Networking Vendor #1 Broadband Access xdsl, MSAP/DLC #2 Carrier Ethernet S/R Consumer, Enterprise #1 Optics Terrestrial, Submarine ACCESS LEADERSHIP IP / ETHERNET ROUTING LEADERSHIP OPTICAL NETWORKING LEADERSHIP Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 26

N 1 - Alcatel to reach 100M DSL lines shipped end Q3 40.4M 29.0M 17.5M North America Europe & Middle East Asia - Pacific DSL World-wide Line Shipments, 2Q06 Source: Dell Oro, June 2006 6.

27 N 1 - Alcatel to reach 100M DSL lines shipped end Q3 40.4M 29.0M 17.5M North America Europe & Middle East Asia - Pacific DSL World-wide Line Shipments, 2Q06 Source: Dell Oro, June M Rest of World Alcatel Huawei Siemens Lucent NEC ECI 18.6M 17.8M 14.8M 12.8M 27.5M Others 31% ECI 5% NEC 6% Lucent 7% Siemens 7% Huawei 10% Alcatel 34% 93.1M Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 27

28 Networks 2006 Conference Delhi Nov 2006 Page 28

Alcatel-Lucent Internal

Next Generation Access: 10G PON & Phantom Mode The Evolution Towards Ultra-Broadband Sanjay S. Patel CTO, Wireline Division Alcatel-Lucent Alcatel-Lucent Internal How much bandwidth do you need? Long term