Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Outlook: Fundamentals Point to Growth

Transcription

1 Semiconductor Manufacturing Market Outlook: Fundamentals Point to Growth 3Q03 Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing Forecast San Jose, California 8 July 2003 Presenters: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Mary Olsson Jim Hines Jim Walker Emerging Technologies and Semiconductors Gartner Dataquest

2 Forecast Growth Scorecard Revenue Growth (%) Base Up Base Down World GDP U.S. GDP Electronic Equipment* Semiconductor Capital Spending Equipment Spending WFE Equipment P&A Equipment Silicon Shipment (MSI) *Production revenue 1

3 Global GDP Growth, Real GDP Growth (Percent) Source: Global Insight (June 2003) U.S. tax cuts stimulate strong U.S. consumer spending Eurozone adopts looser economic policies Capital spending revives Dollar depreciates slowly Wild cards limited 2H03 revival still possible, but full recovery may be pushed out to 1H04 U.S. tax cuts fail to stimulate U.S. consumer spending Eurozone maintains tight economic policies Capital spending falters Dollar crashes Wild cards wreak havoc 2

4 Overall IT Trend Weighted/Monthly: 2003 Cautious Underspending; 2004 Increase Key Trends: Current spending remains below budgeted levels Stalled recovery in current spending Contributing factors: War with Iraq SARS outbreak Slow economy Technology manufacturing and communications vertical market lags current spending Projecteddemandin2004 slightly higher, but still below prewar level 3

5 Gartner Dataquest s Index of Semiconductor Market Leading Indicators, July 2003 Semiconductor Revenue Growth 60% Actual Forecast 45% 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% -45% Semiconductor Growth Indicator

6 Monitoring Phased Recovery Through H03 2H03 1H04 2H04 Recovery under way: Equipment markets slowly improving Cell phones transition to higher generations, especially in Japan PC market improving Spending Consumer Corporate Cell Phones Continued recovery depends on: Growth in cell phone demand PC replacement cycle starts in 2H03 Stronger electronic equipment production in 2004? PCs Communications 5

7 Semiconductor Demand by Application 2003 Semiconductor Pie CAGR (%) % 8% 17% 3% Automotive Communications Industrial Data Processing 7% 41% Military/Civil/ Aerospace Consumer 0% 5% 10% 15% 6

8 Semiconductor Revenue Forecast: Recovery Gains Momentum in 2003 Billions of Dollars Upside Potential 23% 22% -5% 6% 200 2% 8%

9 Quarterly Semiconductor Revenue: Market Expands on 2H03 Improvement Scenarios Billions of Dollars 65 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 1.9% +12.3% +8.3% +1.3% Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 8

10 Supply Outlook: Semiconductor Inventory Dataquest Semiconductor Inventory Index Conclusions Inventory days peaked in 1Q01 Healthy drop in 1Q03 Good bill of health for inventories 0.8 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 9

11 Wafer Fab: Overall Industry Utilization Ratio of Silicon Consumed to Fab Capacity 100% Leading Edge 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 10

12 Wafer Fab: Foundry Services Foundry Fab Utilization Ratio of Silicon Consumed to Fab Capacity 100% Leading Edge 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 11

13 Wafer Fab: Foundry Services Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios Scenarios Billions of Dollars 6.0 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic +16% +27% (0.25) +23% (0.60) +21% (0.15) Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 12

14 Wafer Fab: Foundry Services Market Revenue Forecast Revenue (Billions of Dollars) Conclusions 2003: Demand growth and price pressure 2004: Tightening capacity 2005: Strong demand growth and pricing support

15 Wafer Fab: Equipment Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios Scenarios Billions of Dollars 10 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic -32% +16% (0.25) +9% (0.60) +1% (0.15) Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 14

16 Wafer Fab: Equipment What Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003? 2003 Growth 50% 193-nm Steppers 40% ECD 30% 20% 10% 0% RTP Implant Factory Automation Dry Etch CMP Wet Clean Track PVD Process Control Nontube CVD Steppers Market Growth ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Note: Some segments include OEM sales 2003 Revenue (Millions of Dollars) 15

17 4Q03 Packaging and Assembly: Overall Industry Utilization Factory Utilization 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Leading Edge 16 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 3Q02 2Q02 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02

18 Packaging and Assembly: SAT Services Quarterly Utilization Factory Utilization 100% Leading Edge 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03

19 Packaging and Assembly: SATS Market Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios Scenarios Billions of Dollars 5.0 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic +18% +29% (0.30) +22% (0.55) +16% (0.15) Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 18

20 Packaging and Assembly: SAT Services Annual Revenue Forecast Revenue (Billions of Dollars) Conclusions 2003: Packaging production exceeds 2000; strong QFN 2004: Flip chip and SIP become strong drivers 2005: WLP moves into mainstream

21 Packaging and Assembly: Equipment Quarterly Revenue Forecast Scenarios Scenarios Billions of Dollars 2.0 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic -22% +35% (0.25) +26% (0.55) +17% (0.20) Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic 20

22 Packaging and Assembly: Equipment What Is Hot and What Is Not in 2003? 2003 Growth 35% Flip-Chip Bonders 25% AP Vision Inspection Lithography Package Singulation Dicing Saws Molding/Encapsulation Solder Ball Attach Wire Bonders Die Bonders Contact Prober Test Handlers Market Growth 15% Revenue (Millions of Dollars) 21

23 Long-Term View: Cycles Continue Capital Spending and Equipment Forecasts Billions of Dollars 70 Capital Spending Billions of Dollars Semiconductor Equipment (Excluding Test)

24 Conclusions Economy Expect improvement in 2003, albeit back-end-loaded Weakness in Europe and Japan sharpens need for U.S. improvements Electronic equipment Expect gradually improving macro conditions to spur phased recovery Start of Y2K PC replacement cycle expected; strength is questionable Corporate spending returns in 2003; strength depends on economy Semiconductors Expect revenue growth of 8 percent in 2003 Expect tightening capacity utilization and better demand to drive 2004 Supply-side and capital equipment Healthy inventories and rising demand lead to improving fab utilization Supply-side fundamentals encourage more optimistic outlook on CAPEX with 7.9 percent growth in 2003 Holding to WFE growth of 8.7 percent Upgrade packaging equipment segment to 26 percent growth for 2003 Next fab build cycle slips into 2004; next downcycle in late 2005/early

25 Gartner Dataquest Events at Upcoming SEMICON/West 2003 SEMICON/West 2003 Forum Semiconductors: Fishing in Tide Pools or Open Seas 16 July 2003 San Francisco, CA For more information or to register, please visit www4.gartner.com/2_events/local_briefings/asset_8216.jsp Breakfast Briefing The Back End Leads the Recovery 18 July 2003 San Jose, CA For more information, please visit the Featured Events section on the Gartner Semiconductor Focus Page: www4.gartner.com/pages/section.php.id.2014.s.8.jsp For registration, please contact Becky Tonnesen at 24