Drivers for Next Generation Networks

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Jerome Hart
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1 Drivers for Next Generation Networks Hank Kafka, Chief Architect March 7, 2006

2 Hurricane Katrina BellSouth

3 Three Part Event Florida Hurricane Category One Gulf Hurricane Category Four New Orleans Levee Break Unique challenges Prolonged flooding prevented access for refueling Civil unrest prevented safety issues for personnel Extraordinary security and logistic measures were required

4 Hurricane Katrina - Franklin CO

5 Hurricane Katrina Lake CO

6 Hurricane Katrina Seabrook CO

7 Hurricane Katrina Venice CO

8 Hurricane Katrina Lake Catherine CO

9 Hurricane Katrina Pass Christian CO

10 Katrina s Unprecedented Challenge 33 Central Offices out of service 12 destroyed Severe damage to cables, terminals, poles, drops Pressurized cables flooded Critical services maintained diversity worked In general, fiber did better than copper 1.2M Customers Affected Out Of 20M Base Challenge: Restore and rebuild

11 Restoring the Restorers: BellSouth City

12 Restoration Logistics & Materials Equipment Shipped 2334 Truckloads of Network Equipment Generators Deployed 1044 Generators deployed multiple times Total of 333 Truckloads of generators moved Ice, Water and Meals 60,000 bags of ice and 15,456 cases of water Average of 9,000 meals served per day Fuel Distributed 1.5M gallons of diesel fuel for generators and vehicles 1M gallons of unleaded gas for vehicles 43 Refueling Tankers, 27 above ground storage tanks 949 Additional Vehicles Provided

high Evaluated / tested, but not deployed RF Systems

13 Restoration: Wireless pt-to-pt Free Space Optical Systems Ranges: 1 mile with reliability Capacities: high Evaluated / tested, but not deployed RF Systems Ranges: 10 miles Capacities: 3 to 150 Mbps Deployed: 29

14 Wireless Restoration: Broadband Access Pre-WiMax point-to-multipoint Beam-forming antenna WCS band 4 to 6 mile range DSL-like service Deployed primarily for small business Already deployed in several other cities for residential service

15 Restoration Observations Restoration requires available, proven technologies Time and staff are both limited Not an opportunity to test new technologies Wireless is effective for fast coverage, low density RF was better suited to specific needs than FSO Wireless voice technologies under evaluation Rebuilds based on best current practice Remote Terminals replaced some destroyed COs Fiber to the Curb (currently > 1.2M homes passed) Technology based on re-occupancy, density, schedule

16 More than one way to flood a network If Katrina doesn t drive NGN transport deployment, what will? High-def Video over Internet

17 Today s IPTV Video over Internet Today s IPTV Business model similar to Cable TV Primarily uses multicast for delivery Controlled increase in network traffic, known source / dest Leverages IP to provide new features, functions Over time, migration from multicast to Video on Demand (unicast) Video over Internet Range of business models: pay per item, pay per view, subscription, ads, Unicast / pt-to-pt delivery over the internet Potential for HUGE increase in Internet traffic Leverages explosion of available content Hits, archives, indies, remote events, niche, home-made, Potential for RAPID introduction and growth

18 Factors Driving Video over Internet Traffic Delivery to TV IP STBs Home networks Smart TVs High Def Niche content Hit content (strong / standard DRM) Ability to search / find content

19 Recent Video over Internet Press Articles WSJ: Search the web for video clips WSJ: Vlogger (noun): Blogger with Video Camera WSJ: Online Video Goes Mainstream, Sparking an Industry Land Grab WSJ: Google to Offer Video Downloads WSJ: Intel Secures Video Content For its Viiv Multimedia Plan WSJ: Clear Channel To Offer Music Videos On Demand USA Today: AOL plans to sell video content by middle of year Light Reading: BitTorrent to Open Video Store Companies involved in Internet video announcements / deals: NBC, Disney, Apple, Comcast, CBS, DirecTV, Fox, National Lampoon, Oxygen, NYTimes, Brightcove, DirecTV, BBC, Google, Yahoo, Starz, NBA, Major League Baseball, Akimbo, MovieLink, CinemaNow,

20 Broadcast and Unicast (VoD) Transport Needs (Based on Hypothetical IPTV Model) # of GigE Links Time Period Broadcast VoD (Unicast) Across unweighted selection of metro areas, with increasing VoD and HD over time

21 Cost Factors for Broadband Access Speed (Mbits / second) Key factor for current Internet

22 Cost Factors for Broadband Access Speed (Mbits / second) Quantity (Gigabytes / month) Key factor for current Internet Key factor for video over Internet

23 Cost Factors for Broadband Access Speed (Mbits / second) Quantity (Gigabytes / month) Schedule (average load during busy hour ) Key factor for current Internet Key factor for video over Internet Distance (physical, peering, transit) Future Factors

24 Traffic Impact of Point-to-Point Video Order of Magnitude Guesstimates Access Speed Avg Busy Hr Usage Quantity (GBytes/mo) Cost of Quantity Today s Internet 1.5 to 6 Mbps < 50Kb/s 2 $1.00 Assumptions: Cost/Megabyte = 0.05 cents (Dave Burstein s estimate in DSL Prime newsletter)

25 Traffic Impact of Point-to-Point Video Order of Magnitude Guesstimates Access Speed Avg Busy Hr Usage Quantity (GBytes/mo) Cost of Quantity Today s Internet 1.5 to 6 Mbps < 50Kb/s 2 $1.00 Std Def, 5 Movies/mo 1.5 to 6 Mbps 190 Kb/s 9 $4.50 Assumptions: Cost/Megabyte = 0.05 cents (Dave Burstein s estimate in DSL Prime newsletter) Coding = H.264, 2Mbps for Std Def, 10Mbps High Def 1/2 of movies watched in primetime Thursday Sunday

26 Today s Internet Std Def, 5 Movies/mo Std Def, All Viewing Traffic Impact of Point-to-Point Video Order of Magnitude Guesstimates Access Speed 1.5 to 6 Mbps 1.5 to 6 Mbps Avg Busy Hr Usage < 50Kb/s 190 Kb/s Quantity (GBytes/mo) Cost of Quantity 2 $1.00 $ Mbps 1.3 Mb/s 224 $112 9 Assumptions: Cost/Megabyte = 0.05 cents (Dave Burstein s estimate in DSL Prime newsletter) Coding = H.264, 2Mbps for Std Def, 10Mbps High Def 1/2 of movies watched in primetime Thursday Sunday All Viewing = 8 hours 11 minutes per day (Nielsen average per U.S. Household) Average of 2/3 TV on per household in busy hour

27 Today s Internet Std Def, 5 Movies/mo Std Def, All Viewing High Def, All Viewing Traffic Impact of Point-to-Point Video Order of Magnitude Guesstimates Access Speed 1.5 to 6 Mbps 1.5 to 6 Mbps Avg Busy Hr Usage < 50Kb/s 190 Kb/s Quantity (GBytes/mo) Cost of Quantity 2 $1.00 $ Mbps 1.3 Mb/s 224 $ Mbps 6.7 Mb/s $560 Assumptions: Cost/Megabyte = 0.05 cents (Dave Burstein s estimate in DSL Prime newsletter) Coding = H.264, 2Mbps for Std Def, 10Mbps High Def 1/2 of movies watched in primetime Thursday Sunday All Viewing = 8 hours 11 minutes per day (Nielsen average per U.S. Household) Average of 2/3 TV on per household in busy hour

28 Potential Solutions New content distribution technologies / models Network management / traffic control New business models for Internet services Massive amounts of cheaper bandwidth Optoelectronic device technology Optical transport technology ROADM Optical switching technology New network architecture approaches All of the above and then some!

29 Conclusions Wireless / RF provides rapid coverage / restoral Access speed traffic quantity Planned wireline access technologies can handle IPTV and Internet video access speeds Current Internet is designed for modest traffic quantities Video over Internet unicast applications can overwhelm current Internet core technology New approaches needed to handle >100x traffic quantity increases

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