7 MOS MEMORY MARKET TRENDS

Transcription

1 7 MOS MEMORY MARKET TRENDS OVERVIEW The MOS memory market consists of DRAM, SRAM, ROM, EPROM, EEPROM, and flash memory products. Following the overview, each segment of the MOS memory market will be discussed in greater detail. Memory chips have been the big gainers as a result of the increased IC content in electronic systems. In 1995, ICE estimates MOS memory devices accounted for 41 percent of all ICs sold, the highest level (to date) in semiconductor industry history (Figure 7-1). By the turn of the century, MOS memory devices are forecast to grow to 49 percent of the total IC market. For the decade, the MOS memory market is forecast to have a cumulative annual growth rate of 36 percent (Figure 7-2). 350, , ,000 Millions of Dollars 200, , ,000 50,000 26% 29% 31% = Percent Memory of Total IC Market 36% % 42% Year 42% % % % C Figure 7-1. MOS Memory Percent of Total Worldwide IC Market ($M) INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-1

2 180, , ,000 Millions of Dollars 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 CAGR = 36% 20, Year B Figure MOS Memory Market CAGR Figure 7-3 shows ICE s forecast of the specific MOS memory market segments through the year Following three straight years ( ) of better than 40 percent growth, the MOS memory market is forecast to catch its breath in 1996 and It is anticipated that the slower growth rate will be the result of additional capacity (especially for DRAMs) that is forecast to come on line in the late-1996/early-1997 time period. Additional capacity will help fill demand for DRAMs and other memory products, thus reducing average selling prices and causing the market to grow more slowly than the during the first half of the decade WW IC ($M) 90, , , , , ,291 WW MOS Memory Market ($M) WW Memory Percent Change Percent Memory of Total IC DRAM ($M) SRAM ($M) EPROM ($M) Flash ($M) ROM ($M) EEPROM ($M) Other Memory 32,455 55% 36% 23,420 3,755 1, , ,225 64% 41% 40,700 6,000 1,365 1,800 2, ,415 21% 42% 50,075 7,200 1,240 2,300 2,050 1, ,745 14% 42% 57,715 8,435 1,120 2,830 1,980 1, ,950 27% 44% 75,265 10,280 1,035 3,535 1,960 1, ,325 30% 46% 100,595 12, ,500 1,925 1, , ,875 33% 49% 136,780 15, ,800 1,875 1, D Figure 7-3. MOS Memory Market Forecast 7-2 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

3 Any cooling off period, ICE believes, will be short lived. With lower ASPs, consumers will begin to upgrade their computer systems with affordable memory. Those who long waited for lower prices before upgrading will likely jump at the chance to buy more memory, creating inflated demand and a return to a supply shortage. DRAMs make up the majority of MOS memory sales and are forecast to be the dominant memory product through the year 2000 (Figure 7-4). ICE forecasts that in the year 2000, 84 percent of the MOS memory market will be attributed to DRAM sales, up from 77 percent in Strong software, PC, and electronic equipment sales will provide the impetus necessary to take DRAM sales to a new level. DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: 72% 12% 6% 4% 2% 3% 1% $32.5B DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: % 11% 4% % 2% 3% 1% 1996 $53.2B DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: 78% 11% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% $64.4B DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: % 11% 3% 2% 1% 4% 1% $73.7B DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: % 11% 2% 1% 1% 4% 1% $94.0B DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: % 10% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% $122.3B DRAM SRAM ROM EPROM EEPROM FLASH OTHER TOTAL: % 9% 1% 1% 1% 4% <1% $162.9B 17213G Figure 7-4. MOS Memory Product Marketshare MOS memory consumption was again headed by the North American region (Figure 7-5). ICE estimates that North America consumed 36 percent of all MOS memory products in 1995, down slightly from INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-3

4 ROW 19% Europe 18% 1994 $32.5B Japan 26% North America 37% ROW 22% Europe 18% 1995 (EST) $53.2B Japan 24% North America 36% 18912E Figure 7-5. MOS Memory Consumption by Region Figure 7-6 leaves no doubt that the Japanese companies are responsible for the greatest amount of MOS memory production. However, the figure also points out how quickly regional production can increase or decrease from one year to the next. Between 1993 and 1995, for instance, ICE estimates that Japan s share of MOS memory production decreased 10 percentage points, while the ROW region increased 10 points. Apparently, no marketshare lead is safe in the IC industry, even in a market that seemed solidly in the grasp of the Japanese. North American Companies 20% European Companies 4% North American Companies 21% European Companies 4% 1994 ROW $32.5B Companies 23% Japanes Companies 53% 1995 (EST) $53.2B ROW Companies 29% Japanese Companies 46% 20173A Figure 7-6. MOS Memory Production MOS memory production by region for each memory segment is shown in Figure 7-7. Japanese firms supplied the largest amount of DRAMs, SRAMs, and ROMsthe largest memory market segments. ROW companies gained additional marketshare in several segments during Surprisingly, North American companies actually gained marketshare in the DRAM segment while making their presence known in the EPROM, EEPROM, and rising flash memory markets. SGS-Thomson, the world s leading EPROM manufacturer was the source of Europe s strong showing in the EPROM market and also a significant contributor to the EEPROM market. Listed in Figure 7-8 are sales estimates for the top five worldwide MOS memory suppliers in Together the five firms accounted for half of MOS memory sales during the year. ICE shows that Samsung continued as the leading supplier of MOS memory devices in Fueled by strong 7-4 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

5 DRAM demand, its MOS memory sales increased well beyond its 1994 level. The strong DRAM market allowed another Korean supplier,lg Semicon, to join the top-five list. NEC, Hitachi, and Toshiba were lumped together at the number two, three, and four positions % 80 75% 66% Percentage % 49% 3% DRAM $40,700M 33% 30% 47% 3% SRAM $6,000M 20% 2% 1% ROM $2,010M 22% 53% 9% 29% EPROM $1,365M 9% 7% 26% EEPROM $885M 1% 8% 5% Flash $1,800M 2% North American Companies Japanese Companies European Companies ROW Companies 14516N Figure MOS Memory Production by Segment ($M) (EST) Rank Company Sales ($M) Marketshare (%) Company Sales ($M) Marketshare (%) 1 Samsung 4, Samsung 7, NEC 3, NEC 5, Toshiba 3, Hitachi 5, Hitachi 3, Toshiba 4, Mitsubishi 1,830 6 LG Semicon 3,165 6 Other 16, , Total 32, , N Figure 7-8. Total MOS Memory Market Leaders INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-5

6 ROMs ROMs represent the least expensive type of semiconductor memory. They are used primarily for storing data for electronic equipment such as fonts for laser printers, dictionary data in word processors, and sound-source data in electronic musical instruments. ROMs are also used extensively in video game software. A six-year quarterly history of the ROM market, including dollar volume, units, and ASP, is displayed in Figure 7-9. The surge in the ROM market beginning in 1993 closely coincided with a jump in PC sales and other consumer-oriented electronic systems $ Billings in Millions $2.85 Dollar Volume ASP Unit Volume ASP ($) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (EST) Year Figure ROM Market G ICE believes the ROM market will show only one more year of growth before it starts to dwindle in size through the remainder of the decade (Figure 7-10). The main reason for the decline is that the biggest market for mask ROMsvideo gamesis moving toward CD-ROM-based machines. The result is a mask ROM market that will likely begin a sales downturn in Despite the fact that high-performance game applications for ROMs may be dwindling, demand for the high-density versions has increased. Sharp added 3V versions to its high-density line, and in 2H95, began volume production of its 64M ROM device. Sharp also introduced a novel memory device that combines ROM and RAM on one chip. A customer can choose on a page-by-page basis whether the page should be RAM or ROM, solving memory mapping headaches for small, handheld systems. 7-6 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

7 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 Millions of Dollars 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 Percent Change Year 16% 33% 16% 6% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 20348A Figure ROM Market to Fizzle Another interesting ROM development targeting the multimedia market is the Record-On-Silicon (ROS) device from Siemens. With a 50-percent reduction in die area compared with conventional ROM, the company claims the ROS could halve the cost of conventional ROM and push into markets for non-semiconductor storage, such as compact disks and photographic film. Few details of the technology are available now, but a 64M version of the device will be introduced in In the ROM market, Japanese IC makers continued to hold a dominant position (Figure 7-11). Sharp and NEC held the largest shares of the ROM market in However, not all Japanese IC vendors are staying in the ROM business. Fujitsu announced its intentions to withdraw from the mask ROM business. It plans to cancel development efforts for 32M and other next-generation units, and, in 1996, will stop producing and shipping its current line of 16M and smaller products. The ROM market by geographic region is shown in Figure The ROW region, where numerous ROM-intensive electronic games are manufactured, greatly increased its share of the ROM market in INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-7

8 Rank 1 Company Sharp (EST) Sales ($M) 470 Marketshare (%) 25 Company Sharp Sales ($M) 500 Marketshare (%) 25 2 NEC NEC Samsung Toshiba Toshiba Hitachi Hitachi Samsung Other Total 1, , N Figure ROM Market Leaders Japan 74% 1994 $1,890M North America 13% ROW 11% Japan 59% 1995 (EST) $2,010M ROW 21% North America 17% Europe 2% Europe 3% 16790J Figure ROM Market by Region Market demand for ROMs is slowly migrating toward higher densities (Figure 7-13). Most ROM manufacturers elected to keep their ROM production at the 4M level. However, UMC in Taiwan, Sharp in Japan, and Samsung in Korea intend to develop mask ROMs beyond the 32M density. EPROMs EPROMs (electrically programmable read only memory) have long been the cornerstone of the non-volatile memory market. Created in the 1970 s with Intel s invention of the UV-erasable PROM, these devices have since been produced in an assortment of part types with varying speeds and densities. They are used in numerous applications and have been a favorite for their versatility. However, EPROMs stronghold has been tested in recent years with the emergence of other non-volatile memory products, specifically flash memory. 7-8 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

9 40 Marketshare Percent % 31% 18% 27% 22% 31% 19% 28% M 4M 8M >8M 1994 $1,890M 2M 4M 8M >8M 1995 (EST) $2,010M 18915D Figure ROM Unit Shipments by Density The recent history of the EPROM market, including unit shipments and ASPs, is shown in Figure Dollar volume remained reasonably steady until 1994 when the impact of flash memory was felt. However, high initial prices and lack of supply in the flash market allowed the EPROM market to rebound late in 1994 and into Billings in Millions Dollar Volume 314 $3.35 $2.85 ASP Unit Volume ASP ($) Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (EST) Year 17853G Figure EPROM Market INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-9

10 ICE believes that the EPROM sales peaked in 1994 and have now started to track a slow market decline through the end of the decade (Figure 7-15). The decline comes as many long-time EPROM suppliers, evaluating their capacity allocations, have chosen to produce devices with higher profit margins. 1,600 1,400 $1,390 $1,365 Millions of Dollars 1,200 1, $1,240 $1,120 $1,035 $935 $ Percent Change From Previous Year 3% 2% 9% 10% 8% 10% 10% 19518B Figure EPROM Market Decline The year 1999 should be the first (since its initial market days) that the EPROM market fails to reach the $1 billion level. Still, even though it is forecast to decline, a roughly one-billion dollar market is quite sizable. As will be mentioned later, while numerous competitors have lessened their commitments to the EPROM market, others have increased production to milk all they can from the roughly $1 billion business. The density domain of EPROMs remained at the lower level (256K and 512K, Figure 7-16). The choice between EPROM and flash memory comes into play at higher densities ( 1M). In some cases, lower cost, lower voltage, and faster speed of some EPROM products may offer an advantage over competing devices. However, the trade-off of lower price is sometimes met with less flexibility (Figure 7-17). The leading EPROM suppliers for 1995 are shown in Figure This list has changed several times during the past five years and will probably change more by the year INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

11 256K 40% 512K 1995 (EST) 28% 492M >1M 14% 1M 18% 19519B Figure EPROM Market by Density (Units) EPROM Flash EEPROM Typical Storage Use Typical Number of Writes Densities Available Flexibility Cost Per Bit Fixed programs Write once 256K to 8M Least Least In-system modifiable programs Write up to 100,000 times 256K to 16M Frequently updated programs and data Write up to one million times 1K to 64K (serial) 64K to 4M (parallel) Most Most Source: Atmel/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure EPROMs Offer Lower Cost But Less Flexibility Rank Company 1994 Sales ($M) Marketshare (%) Sales ($M) 1995 (EST) Marketshare (%) 1 SGS-Thomson AMD TI Atmel National Cypress Other Total 1, , N Figure EPROM Market Leaders INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-11

12 Since 1993, several big-name vendors have dropped out of the EPROM business. In the early 1990 s, Intel was the EPROM leader. Today, it is out of the market. Likewise, Philips Semiconductor, previously a medium-sized EPROM player, withdrew from the market. And, Fujitsu, concluding that flash memories will replace EPROMs in many applications, terminated development of its next-generation 8M EPROM device. During 1995, several leading EPROM suppliers were caught somewhere between trying to improve a technology that will likely return small, near-term financial rewards or investing in flash memory, which represents the future of nonvolatile memory and offers greater profitability. Texas Instruments, National Semiconductor, and AMD all reduced their EPROM production and future commitments to the EPROM market. TI informed customers that it would reduce production of its EPROMs roughly 50 percent beginning in 2H95 in order to allow more capacity for manufacturing digital signal processors. National s total EPROM production was expected to diminish by 60 percent in 1995 as the company placed more emphasis on application-specific devices. Meanwhile, AMD was forced to closely evaluate its internal fab production commitments after losing two key EPROM foundry partners. Not every company distanced themselves from EPROMs, however. SGS-Thomson retained its leadership position in the EPROM business by emphasizing high-speed devices and filling out other niche organizations in its EPROM line-up. For instance, ST ramped production of its 8M (100ns and 120ns versions) and 16M (150ns and 200ns versions) lines in 1995 to meet increased demand for cost-effective alternatives to high-density ROM and flash memory devices. Smaller EPROM producers such as Cypress Semiconductor and Integrated Silicon Solutions Inc. have provided mainly niche-oriented high-speed EPROMs but are eager to fill the void left by larger players. A summary of those suppliers placing greater and less emphasis on the EPROM market is shown in Figure Through the years, the EPROM market has been much more evenly balanced by region than other memory segments (Figure 7-20). ICE forecasts that the ROW region will capture more of the EPROM market in the coming years, while the European and Japanese markets will fluctuate around the same level as in Reduced EPROM consumption in North America is due to quick acceptance and implementation of flash memory in this region. EEPROMs EEPROMs (electrically erasable programmable read only memories) offer users excellent capabilities and performance. They are available in either a serial or parallel version. Parallel EEPROMs are available in higher densities, are generally faster, offer high endurance and reliability, but also 7-12 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

13 cost more than their serial counterparts. Until recently, parallel EEPROMs found little interest beyond the military market. Serial EEPROMs, though generally less dense and slower than parallel devices, are much cheaper. Less Emphasis More Emphasis AMD Evaluating in-house capacity allocation Lost two EPROM foundry suppliers More wafer starts at Flash facility (FASL) in Japan National EPROM production down 60 percent in 1995 Integrating EPROM and Flash capabilities with MCU and MPU technology to create application-specific products Texas Instruments Reduced EPROM production 50 percent to provide more capacity for DSPs SGS-Thomson Upgrading EPROM process to 0.6µm Densities to 16M; many low-voltage versions Cypress Previously a high-speed EPROM player, now attacking slow, low-cost segment left behind by others Integrated Silicon Solution Inc. High-performance EPROMs for code storage applications Figure EPROM Suppliers Coming and Going North America 33% 1994 $1,390M Japan 29% Europe 23% North America 29% Japan 29% 1995 (EST) $1,365M Europe 22% ROW 15% ROW 20% 16791J Figure EPROM Market by Region The near-term EEPROM market forecast is shown in Figure In 1995 the EEPROM market grew 23 percent following up on 20 percent growth in The CAGR for EEPROMs is estimated to be 14 percent for the time period. Due in part to military use, the North American market was the largest for EEPROMs in 1995 (Figure 7-22). INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-13

14 1,800 1,700 Millions of Dollars 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,020 1,090 1,235 1, Percent Change Year % 23% 15% 7% 13% 15% 20% Figure EEPROM Market Forecast ($M) 20347A North America 51% 1995 (EST) $885M Europe 24% Japan 12% ROW 13% 16792G Figure EEPROM Market ICE estimates that in 1995, the serial EEPROM market accounted for 90 percent of the $885 million EEPROM market (Figure 7-23). The largest serial EEPROM density shipping in volume was the 64K density device. Companies such as Atmel, Xicor, and SGS-Thomson supplied the large majority of these devices. The largest parallel EEPROMs built in volume during 1995 were 1M devices. They were used extensively, although not exclusively, in military applications. Parallel EEPROMs are of particular interest in the military because they offer more flexibility than other kinds of solid-state memory. Specifically, parallel EEPROMs can be erased bit by bit, whereas other types of memory such as flash can only be erased in larger block segments at one time INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

15 Serial EEPROM 90% Parallel EEPROM 1995 (EST) 10% $885M Figure EEPROM Market Parallel EEPROMs can be found in defense applications such as flight controllers, vehicle control systems, field communications equipment, secure radios, command and control systems, radar, and guidance subsystems. The lightness, ruggedness, and fast performance of parallel EEPROMs make them well suited for harsh environments. Figure 7-24 gives a sampling of parallel EEPROM suppliers and some of the devices they offer. Density (Bits) Organization Endurance (Erase/Write Cycles) Voltage (V) Packaging Military Qualifications/Spec Military Applications Aeroflex Circuit Technology ARX-E1MX32 (MCM) Atmel Corp. AT28C040 AT28C010 Electronic Designs Inc. EDI5C32128C EDI5M32128C EDI5C3232C EDI5M3232C Sac-Tec Labs TBD ST512x32x Space Electronics 28CO10RP 79C010RP 28C256ERP White Microelectronics WF2048K32 WE128K32 WF1024K32 Xlcor Inc. X28HC256 X28VC256 X28C010 X28C512 32M 4M 1M 4M 4M 1M 1M 144/ 288M 16/ 32M 1M 1M 256K 64M 4M 32M 256K 256K 1M 512 1M x K x 8 128K x 8 128K x K x 32 32K x 32 32K x 32 Multiple I/O 512K x 32 1,024K x K x 8 bit MCM 32K x 8 bit 32K x 8 bit 2,048K x K x 32 1,024K x 32 32K x 8 32K x 8 128K x 8 64K x 8 10,000 to 100, , ,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10, , ,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 1,000,000 N/A 100, , , , , , 12 5, /5 5 5/ " x 2.9" x.275" 32 flatpack, 44 LCC, 32 DIP 32 LCC 68-pin ceramic JLCC 68-pin ceramic PGA 68-pin ceramic JLCC 68-pin ceramic PGA Hybrid module SMD module Hybrid module SMD module 32-pin flatpack 36-pin flatpack 28-pin flatpack PGA/HIP & CQFP PGA/HIP & CQFP PGA/HIP & CQFP DIP, LCC DIP, LCC DIP, LCC DIP, LCC Mil-Std Mil-H compliant Mil-H compliant Class B & S Class B & S Class B & S 883/SMD 883/SMD 883/SMD Airborne Land-based avionics Avionics Various Various Various Various Space/Defense Space/Defense Military & Space Military & Space Military & Space Solid-state storage Solid-state storage Solid-state storage Flight data recorders, flight control systems, communications Figure Sampling of Parallel EEPROM Suppliers & Devices INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-15

16 Office 7% Automotive 8% Computer-Related 7% Military/Aerospace 7% Industrial 15% 1995 Telecom 20% Consumer 36% 19520B Figure Serial EEPROM Applications (Units) Consumer-oriented applications represented the largest end-use of serial EEPROMs in 1995 (Figure 7-25). Consumer applications span a wide variety of electronic systems but essentially involve systems where touch or push programmability exists. Other leading serial EEPROM applications are shown in Figure Consumer TV VCR Radio Tuner CD/Laser Disk Feature Phone Pay Phone Answer Machine Pager Photo Equip. Handheld Remote Weight Scale Camcorder Exercise Machine Sonabuoy Smart Key Electronic Locks Smart Cards Appliances Karaoke Video Game Automotive Anti-lock Brake Sys. Air Bag Sensor Odometer Trip Computer Power Steering Ctrl Cruise Control Wiper Control Security System Shock Sensor Electronic Key Keyless Entry Radio Cellular Phone Mobile TV Industrial Thermostat Utility Meter Security System Controller Computer Peripheral Disk Drive PC LAN System PCMCIA Card Video Graphics Card Video Monitor Access Bus Protocol Laser Printer Scanner Bar Code Reader Communications Modem Fax Machine Copier Cellular Phone Mobile Phone PABX System Satellite Receiver POS Terminal Data Acquisition PDA Source: Microchip/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure Typical Serial EEPROM Applications EEPROMs are well suited for low-voltage operation and are being developed along side other technologies for such applications. In 4Q95, Xicor introduced a prototype million-transistor device that integrates EEPROM technology with digital signal processing. The IC, to be priced under $50, will be sold to portable communications equipment makers that need in-system programmability and 1.8-volt operation. Toshiba and Hitachi also improved their EEPROM line-ups to better meet high-speed, low-voltage, and low power consumption demands. The number of erase/write cycles that a particular EEPROM device offers depends on several factors such as temperature, voltage, and the number of cycles per day. For EEPROMs, endurance ratings of 100,000 and one million erase/write cycles are common. In contrast, 100,000 cycles are 7-16 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

17 at the high end of performance for flash memory devices. Depending on the design, the number of erase/write cycles may or may not be important. Figure 7-27 shows applications that change or update the data in an EEPROM most often during a day. Applications such as a maintenance log or last number redial are the most taxing on an EEPROM. Maintenance Log Last Number Redial Electronic Lock Access Power-Down Storage Digital Potentiometer Look-Up Table Tuner Controls System Configuration Anti-Lock Braking System Speed Dial Airbag ,000 Cycles Per Day Source: Microchip Technology/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure EEPROM Endurance Requirements Leading EEPROM suppliers are shown in Figure Atmel, SGS-Thomson, and Microchip Technology continue to make strides in the market. Rank Company 1994 Sales ($M) Marketshare (%) Sales ($M) 1995 (EST) Marketshare (%) 1 SGS-Thomson Atmel Xicor Microchip National Others N Figure EEPROM Market Leaders INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-17

18 FLASH MEMORY Flash memory is the newcomer on the MOS memory block. Despite being commercially available since around 1990, flash pricing and performance have inched closer to parity with many other memory devices. Given the option, more and more designers are giving serious consideration to flash memory products in their systems. Lower pricing, increased performance, and more design wins in innovative products have stirred a lot of interest in the flash memory market. Since 1990, flash memory products have revolutionized how designers think about storing control code in computers, peripherals, communication devices, and a number of other applications. Several elements, highlighted in Figure 7-29, will help the flash memory market expand further in Ability to rewrite data or code in a system ASPs competitive with DRAM at 4M, 16M densities High density, low power, rewrite ability, non-volatility favor growing hand-held/portable/mobile electronics Figure Growth Factors in Flash Memory Market Figure 7-30 demonstrates how flash memory is forecast to be the memory segment with the highest CAGR through the year Driving the growth are wide ranging embedded applications, which account for 80 to 90 percent of all flash sales. Hot markets include PC BIOS, telecommunications devices such as cellular phones and modems, printers, hard disk drives, and video game cartridges. Flash devices are serving in new and innovative applications rather than strictly as EPROM replacement. In fact, 1995 was the first year that the flash memory market was larger than the EPROM memory market. A brief market history of flash devices is plotted in Figure The forecast growth in the flash market is plotted in Figure By the year 2000, ICE expects the flash market to be $5.8 billion, more than three times its 1995 size. Currently, the majority of flash devices shipped are 1M (33 percent) and 4M (24 percent) densities (Figure 7-33). 16M and 4M devices will ship more than any other size as applications become more sophisticated toward the end of the decade. ICE estimates that consumption of flash memory devices was greatest in the North American region in 1995 (Figure 7-34). Solid business applicationsespecially in the portable/mobile categoryprovided a strong foundation for growth in both the North American and European regions INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

19 Percent Flash DRAM SRAM EEPROM ROM EPROM 20071A Figure Memory IC CAGRs Billings in Millions $8.57 Dollar Volume Q 2Q 3Q Unit Volume 4Q 1Q 2Q Year 3Q 4Q 1Q ASP 2Q Q 571 $ Q (EST) ASP ($) Figure Flash Memory Market INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-19

20 6,000 5, , Millions of Dollars 3, , 1, Total ($M) ,800 2,300 2,830 3,535 4,500 5,800 Percent Change 171% 137% 35% 108% 28% 23% 25% 27% 29% 18692B Figure Dollar Value of Worldwide Flash Memory Market 16M 1% 4M 24% 8M 9% 2M 13% 1995 (EST) 232M 256K 10% 512K 10% 1M 33% 20351A Figure Flash Unit Shipments by Density The leading flash memory suppliers are displayed in Figure Intel and AMD dominate this market. Both companies are well up the learning curve slope while many other companies are just beginning to get their flash business off the ground. With its AMD partnership (FASL) in place, Fujitsu was able to join the small group of manufacturers that generated triple-digit flash revenue growth in INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

21 ROW 12% North America 46% 1995 (EST) $1.8B Japan 18% Europe 24% 20093A Figure Flash Memory Market by Region Others 21% AMD 25% 1994 $865M INTEL 54% Others 20% AMD 30% 1995 $1.8B (EST) INTEL 50% 20092A Figure Leading Flash Memory Suppliers Following behind in flash sales were a handful of other manufacturers from around the world. These included Atmel, Hitachi, Micron, Mitsubishi, Samsung, SGS-Thomson, and Toshiba. There are many vendors who want to be a part of the flash memory business, but not all are capable from a technology standpoint. Neither are many vendors capable from a financial standpoint. That is why the list of leading vendors is still primarily limited to companies with a strong financial base, solid R&D skills, and large fab capacity. At least three significant hurdles face the flash memory market if it is to continue growing at its fast pace. The issues are architecture, voltage supply, and capacity. Architecture All flash devices are not created equally. There are two prominent architectures that compete in today s market: NOR and NAND. Both are based on technology from flash s predecessors, the EPROM and EEPROM circuits. NOR and NAND imply different types of memory cell structure. Each uses floating-gate transistors for storage elements, but differ in the way the memory cells are linked together. Also, each is well suited for specific applicationsnor for RAM-like applications requiring fast access times, and NAND for applications that do not require repetitive random accesses, such as disk-drive replacements. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-21

22 Beyond NOR and NAND are emerging architectures such as Mitsubishi s DINOR (divided bitline NOR) technology and the AND structure that is being promoted by Hitachi. DINOR offers low power and low voltage in a die size approximately 20 percent smaller than an equivalent NOR device. While each architecture has its benefits, NOR and NAND were the two front runners through 1995 and will likely dominate the near-term market. Figure 7-36 provides a brief comparison of the four available flash architecture styles while Figure 7-37 provides a look at the various flash memory architectures and the vendors who support them. Architecture NOR DINOR NAND AND Program Method Hot carrier injection Tunnel current Tunnel current Tunnel current Erase Method Tunnel current Tunnel current Tunnel current Tunnel current Possible Power Supply single 3.3V Difficult Yes Yes Yes single 5V Yes No Yes No dual 5V/12V Yes No Yes No Die Size (using NOR as reference) Suitable Applications (by density) 1M to 4M 1 BIOS, EPROM replace- ment, communications, low-density XIP cards 0.8 Not suitable 0.9 BIOS, EPROM replace- ment, communications, low-density XIP cards 0.8 Not suitable 8M to 16M PDA, cellular, net- working, low-density ATA cards PDA, cellular, net- working, low-density ATA cards PDA, cellular, net- working, low-density ATA cards Not suitable 32M to 256M Not suitable Not suitable High-density ATA cards (10-100Mbytes) High-density ATA cards (10-100Mbytes) Source: Computer Design/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure Flash Architectures Stretch to Fit Memory Requirements NOR NAND AND DINOR Intel National Hitachi Mitsubishi AMD Samsung Mitsubishi Hitachi Fujitsu Toshiba TI Micron SGS-Thomson Macronix UMC Winbond uses its proprietary "split-gate" architecture A Figure Vendors Support of Flash Memory Architectures 7-22 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

23 Voltage Another issue being addressed in the flash market is that of single- versus dual-supply voltage, and the implementation of low-voltage parts. The trend is for users to design single-voltage devices into their systems. That is, the market for 5V program/erase devices is expected to grow rapidly, overtaking the products incorporating 12V devices in 1996 (Figure 7-38). 4,000 3,500 3V-only 3V/5V 5V-only 3,000 5V/12V Millions of Dollars 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Year Figure Flash Memory Market by Voltage AMD has emphasized its low-voltage, single-voltage flash products. Most of its devices are manufactured to write and erase at 5V (low-voltage in the flash market). Until recently, Intel downplayed the importance of single-voltage flash. However, it now promotes its SmartVoltage flash technology, which allows flash chips to operate with a 3V or 5V read voltage and 5V or 12V erase/write voltage. By incorporating its SmartVoltage lineup, it has practically acknowledged the market for single-power supply flash. ICE anticipates the 5V flash market maintaining very solid, steady growth through the year Growth in the 3V flash market is also expected to surge later in the decade. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-23

24 Capacity Big strides to level the flash memory supply-demand ratio took place in 1995 as several vendors either brought new flash-dedicated fabs on line or announced their intentions to add more capacity. Figure 7-39 shows some of the new flash capacity that has come on line or that will soon be available. Company Location Process Technology Comments Intel Sharp AMD/Fujitsu Mitsubishi Fab 7 New Mexico, USA 150mm wafers Fab 9 New Mexico, USA 200mm wafers Fab 18 Kiryat Gat, Israel 200mm wafers Fab 3 Fukuyama, Japan 200mm wafers FASL Aizu-Wakamatsu, Japan 200mm wafers Saijo Facility Japan 0.4µm by 1Q96. Near 100% flash production. 0.4µm 0.25µm 0.4µm by µm 0.5µm Wafer starts increasing 25% in Mostly 5V/12V parts. Die shrinks to improve effective capacity/yields. Production starts 4Q96. $1 billion investment. First silicon due 4Q97. Production ramp slated for When fully operational, Fab 18 will increase Intel's flash output 350% over 1995 levels. Builds Intel devices. Not yet at capacity. Running 8M, 16M parts. Accelerating development of Intel's SmartVoltage technology. Opened 4Q94. Aggressive ramp schedule. 20 million-plus unit shipments forecast for Negotiating to build a second joint-venture fab in Japan. If approved, production would begin in late 1997 or early Currently processing DRAMs. Making switch to flash memories A Figure New Flash Capacity to Meet Demand Intel dedicated new fab space to flash memory production. Its Fabs 7 and 9 in New Mexico along with its announcement to build a new production facility (Fab 18) in Israel should help eliminate the capacity crunch for flash memory INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

25 AMD ramped production at its joint-venture fab with Fujitsu (FASL) in Due to continued demand, the two firms mulled over a second flash-dedicated fab. If approved, the facility would likely begin production in late 1997 or early Meanwhile, the Taiwanese have shown considerable interest in joining the flash party. In the second half of 1995, at least four companies announced their intentions to become involved with or expand their involvement in the flash market place (Figure 7-40). Despite the competition, the Taiwanese companies expect to capitalize on the exploding flash market. Further, the move demonstrates their resolve to transit into more complex and more profitable product lines. Company Formosa Chemical & Fibre Macronix UMC Winbond Flash Plans Looking for a joint-venture partner to help propel it into the flash memory business. It desires to manufacture flash memories (and other related IC products) in a proposed 200mm sub-micron fab. Has sold 1M and 4M flash parts for several years. Designing products around a single-voltage architecture developed by AMD. Sampled 16M flash devices co-developed with NKK of Japan. Designing 1M and 2M flash products around a single-voltage architecture developed by AMD. Shipments will begin in mid Sampling first members of its flash family based on its proprietary EEPROM technology. The 256K and 1M 5V-only densities are built around a "splitgate" architecture, which differs from Intel's and AMD's cell structure Figure Taiwan Joining Flash Bandwagon Earlier, it was mentioned that flash memory has been a hit in the portable systems arena. Specifically, flash memory in the form of flash cards has received much attention as this market heats up. In 2H95, rival and incompatible memory-card proposals went public to garner a share of new-generation, low-cost digital consumer devices. Minicard, CompactFlash, and Solid State Floppy Disk represent three alternatives that aim to replace film, cassette tapes, and full-size PCM- CIA-type memory cards in digital cameras, audio recorders, and other portable systems. Figure 7-41 provides highlights of each proposition. It is no wonder flash card technology is taking off. With prices dropping and applications increasing, consumers stand to benefit from the ease and repetitive use available with digital technology. Figure 7-42 details cost trends and advantages of flash cards. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-25

26 Proponent Size (mm) Memory Type Capacity Connector Type Compact- Flash Minicard Solid State Floppy Disk SanDisk, others to come Intel, Philips, others to come Toshiba 36 x 43 x x 33 x x 37 x 0.76 NOR flash NOR flash, DRAM, SRAM, OTP, ROM NAND flash 2, 4, 12, 15Mbytes 64Kbytes* to 128Mbytes 2Mbytes 50-pin subset of PCMCIA 40-pad elastomeric 68-pin PCMCIA with adapter *Full range not available at launch Source: EE Times/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure Mini Flash Cards Target Cameras, Audio Recorders, and PDAs What does 5MB get you? Images - over 50 digital images Voice - More than 1 hour Data - 3,500 pages of double-space text Retail Price ($) Year Source: SanDisk/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure Retail Price of 5MB Flash Disk Card With the flurry of activity in the flash memory market, several product announcements and technology breakthroughs were reported. A sampling of some of the more significant company alliances and product announcements is listed below. AMD and Fujitsu started volume production of flash devices at their new jointly owned facility in Aizu-Wakamatsu, Japan. At the end of 1995, FASL was producing five million units per month. AMD and Fujitsu also discussed the possibility of building a second flashdedicated facility in Japan INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

27 Hitachi added its name to the list of vendors offering a 32M flash device. The company developed its version using its proprietary AND architecture on a 0.45µm CMOS process. The devices are aimed at solid-state disk applications, but the company also has plans to use the chips in the flash card business. Samples were available in 4Q95. Hyundai Electronics created a new flash memory division in Sunnyvale, California. It expects to enter the market with 4M and 16M flash products in Intel began offering 4M and 8M boot-block flash devices that are capable of operating at voltages as low as 2.7 volts. The SmartVoltage devices allow flash memories to be read and written to at multiple voltages, offering a higher degree of flexibility than single-voltage flash, according to Intel. LG Semicon and SanDisk entered into an agreement under which LG Semicon will manufacture flash memory for use in SanDisk flash data storage products. As part of the agreement, LG Semicon made an minority investment in SanDisk. The agreement also provides that the two companies will cooperate in further development of flash products. Matsushita will supply 32M flash memory chips to SanDisk beginning 1Q96. The devices will be packaged into CompactFlash PC cards with a memory storage capacity of 15MB. Micron entered into a licensing agreement with flash market leader Intel. In doing so, it gained access to the full range of Intel s flash patents while also signaling that it would align itself with Intel s mixed-power supply flash mode. Mitsubishi released its 3V-only 16M DINOR flash memory chip, the first in a series of products that incorporate Mitsubishi s divided bit-line NOR technology. It was produced using a half-micron process and volume production is expected in early Hitachi, working with Mitsubishi to develop the technology, later introduced its 16M DINOR device. National is reselling Toshiba-built 16M flash memories in the merchant market under the National brand label and is committed to building Toshiba-compatible flash devices. National also has plans to produce non-standard parts that better target specific applications. NEC began marketing flash memory chips in 4Q95. The company will initially ship 1M and 4M NOR-type chips that use 12V and 5V to write and read data, respectively. NEC plans to release an 8M chip in 2Q96. Production will start at 300,000 to 400,000 units per month at NEC Yamaguchi. SanDisk and Intel signed an agreement that allows each to license the other s patents covering the design and manufacture of flash memory products, giving both companies unrestricted rights to use those patents. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-27

28 Samsung sampled its 32M NAND flash memory device. The 3V-only (also available in a 5Vonly version) IC is based on a 0.5µm CMOS process. Volume production started in 4Q95. Samsung expects to introduce a compatible 64M NAND flash memory device in Toshiba developed a 32M flash device. Designed using a 0.425µm CMOS process, the NAND chip operates on a 3V or 5V supply. Toshiba and Samsung signed a technical alliance that calls for co-development of NAND flash devices through (and including) the 64M density. Toshiba is also sharing some of its flash knowledge with IBM. Xicor doubled the size of its flagship flash memory product with the addition of a 128K device to its SerialFlash family of low-voltage flash memories with serial architecture. SRAMs Static RAMs (SRAMs) are memory devices capable of retaining their information at very low power, without the need for periodic refresh as in the case with DRAMs. Although these devices have lived in the shadow of DRAMs for the longest time, SRAMs took on added importance and significance in Why? In a word, Pentium. Prior to the advent of the Pentium processor, SRAM was considered antiquated technology with little value. ASPs were such that profit margins were below the interest level of most manufacturers. The present environment, however, shows a 180-degree reversal of that pattern. In many cases, manufacturers scaled back production of other, less profitable chips to make room for additional SRAM production. Demand was high, capacity tight, and lead times long for SRAMs throughout most of The disparity between Pentium-class MPU clock speeds and DRAM access times became more apparent during In many cases, high-performance CPUs remained in idle wait states while accessing slower DRAM memory. To reduce or eliminate the wait state, designers looked to SRAM cache memory. Cache memory serves as temporary storage between the CPU and the main memory and helps CPUs to perform at their optimum level. As depicted in Figure 7-43, cache memory is becoming a more significant factor in PC systems. With few exceptions, MPU bus speeds now require a second-level cache built with fast SRAM to tap the full potential of the microprocessor. The result has been SRAM demand that has skyrocketed. It is estimated that less than one-quarter of 486-based machinesgenerally those with 50MHz and slower MPUshave secondary cache. In contrast, forecasts show that secondary cache will be a feature on as many as three-fourths of Pentium-based PCs (Figure 7-44). Further, it is estimated 7-28 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

29 that Pentium-based systems with level-two cache operate 30 percent faster than systems without. Intel s planned delivery of 30 million-plus Pentium s in 1995 placed the SRAM market, specifically cache SRAMs, in a strong growth mode through the year and well into 1996 and beyond. In fact, ICE forecasts the SRAM market growth rate will hover around 20 percent per year through the year 2000 (Figure 7-45). 64bit CPU 32bit CPU 16bit CPU With Cache Non Cache Standard SRAM Sync. Burst SRAM Year Source: Mitsubishi/ICE, "Status 1996" Figure Trend of PC Cache SRAM 486-Based Systems Pentium-Based Systems 23% 27% 77% 73% Systems With Secondary Cache Systems Without Secondary Cache Figure Who Has The Cache? Percentage of PC Systems With Secondary Cache SRAM suppliers are working to ramp production of 32K x 32 parts due to the continued migration toward RISC-based and Pentium-based PC systems. The market for SRAMs configured this way remains as tight as that for DRAMs. While fast 32K x 8 SRAMs support and perform well in Pentium-based systems, the x32 organization is touted as the primary second-level cache choice for Pentium-generation processors. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-29

30 16,000 14,000 12,000 = Dollars = Percent Change Millions of Dollars 10,000 8,000 6,000 4, Percent Change 2, Year 20118A Figure SRAM Market Growth With unit shortages and high margins associated with SRAMs, several vendors not previously associated with SRAM production plan to enter the market. Atmel linked with Paradigm Technology in a technology exchange program and may enter the business soon. Also, Intel plans to supply a significant portion of SRAMs for its Pentium Pro processor. Among those increasing production is Integrated Device Technology (IDT), which announced intentions to add five times as much SRAM capacity by the end of 1Q96 as it had during the worst part of the SRAM shortage. Additionally, Cypress announced plans to boost production of its most popular high-speed, low-voltage SRAMs in 4Q95, a move that could put downward pressure on SRAM prices in Many Korean and Japanese vendors increased their SRAM output and several Taiwanese suppliers cut their 256K and 512K SRAM prices by up to 20 percent in late 3Q95. These factors may help balance SRAM supply with market demand in Furthermore, with more vendors producing SRAM devices, the potential exists for a buyer s bonanza in Figure 7-46 shows the quarterly SRAM dollar volume, unit volume, and ASP data from 1990 through In terms of unit growth rates, the SRAM industry has not always been a big winner. But, that is expected to change in the second half of the decade as demand for high-perfor INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION

31 mance synchronous SRAMs grows. SRAM unit numbers are forecast to increase greatly in 1995 (Figure 7-47). Unit growth will extend into 1996 as systems manufacturers continue to demand fast SRAMs and IC vendors provide additional capacity to meet that demand , Billings in Millions $ ASP Dollar Volume Unit Volume $5.32 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (EST) Year ASP ($) G Figure SRAM Market Unit shipment by density is plotted from 1991 through 1996 in Figure While high-density is a key issue with several other memory products, it is not the highest concern for purchasers of SRAM. In fact, as shown in the figure, the 64K and smaller category was the dominate category in terms of unit shipments for many years. The 256K density had the highest shipment volume beginning only in Further, the 1M density is forecast to outship 64Ks to become the second highest shipped density in SRAM consumption by geographic region is shown in Figure Though the North American region is forecast to remain the leading consumer of SRAMs in 1995, an impressive gain is forecast for the ROW region largely due to demand for PCs (motherboards) and other systems in that region. Meanwhile, SRAM production is forecast to remain firmly in control of Japanese suppliers even though its share was estimated to be down eight percentage points in 1995 (Figure 7-50). ICE expects Japan to continue with its solid lock on worldwide SRAM manufacturing. Nevertheless, it will have to watch as the ROW contributes more to worldwide SRAM production. INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 7-31