Sales Drop, Inventories Fell, Prices Climb
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1 1 Economics Sales (Millions of Units) -1. Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1.. Millions of Units Consensus *: Actual: * from Bloomberg. Record High:.2 mln (/) Percent Change from Record High: -2.%.2 mln.1 mln FELL by.% in September to.1 million, compared with market expectations for a decline to.2 million. The prior month was revised down from. to. million. Home re-sales are now.1% BELOW their year ago level and are 2.% BELOW their September 2 record high. The Inventory of Homes Available for Sale FELL by 1.% to 1,k but are still 1.1% ABOVE their year ago level. Because inventories declined while sales declined, the Months Supply ROSE to. months from. months. This is still well BELOW its July 2 cyclical peak of. (which was its highest level since ) and even BELOW the month level that is considered 'normal'. Home Prices ROSE compared to their year ago levels. Average home prices are 2.% ABOVE their year ago levels while median home prices are.2% ABOVE their year ago levels. Bottom Line: Affordability continued to hamper existing home sales in September. Sales missed expectations for the sixth straight month as mortgage rates moved to higher, nearing the highest levels of the last decade. Home re-sales have averaged.2 million over the past months, and. million over the past months, sharply below the pace. million pace of 21. Inventories of homes available for sale dropped modestly; but the trend in months supply rose slightly. On a year-over-year basis, prices are still modestly higher. The trend in home sales is now clearly lower. That said, the degree of weakness in September suggests some potential for a rebound in October due to normal and weather-related volatility. Monthly Average for Three Six Twelve Five Ten Sep-1 Aug-1 Jul-1 Jun-1 Month Month Month Year Year (millions) prior report... (percent change) (year-on-year percent change) Inventory (thousands) 1, 1, 1,2 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,1 2,1 (percent change) (year-on-year percent change) Months' Supply Average Sales Price ($) (year-on-year percent change) Median Sales Price ($) (year-on-year percent change) Source: National Association of Realtors via Bloomberg. Our calculations. Copyright 21 Contingent Macro Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. Reproduction and/or redistribution are expressly prohibited. "Economic Advisory Service" is a registered trademark of Contingent Macro Advisors, LLC. Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. T.J. Connelly, Head of Research October 1, 21 Steven A. Wood, Senior Economic Adviser
2 Economics, Inventories, and Prices Millions of Units Existing Home Months' Supply 11 Months Supply Median Existing Home Price 1 % Change October 1, 21
3 Existing Single Family Home Sales Economics Sales (Millions of Units) Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 SINGLE-FAMILY EXISTING Monthly Average for Three Six Twelve Five Ten Sep-1 Aug-1 Jul-1 Jun-1 Month Month Month Year Year Single Family Home Sales (Millio (percent change) (year-on-year percent change) Inventory (thousands) 1, 1, 1, 1,2 1, 1, 1, 1,2 1, 1,1 1, (percent change) (year-on-year percent change) Months' Supply Average Sales Price ($) (year-on-year percent change) Median Sales Price ($) (year-on-year percent change) Source: National Association of Realtors via Bloomberg. Our calculations. 1 Inventories (Thousands) Existing Single Family Home Unsold Inventory October 1, 21-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 October 1, 21
4 Economics Existing Single Family Home Sales, Inventories, and Prices Existing Single Family Home Sales Monthly Sales -Month Average Millions of Units Existing Median Single Existing Family Home Months' Price Supply -Month Average Number of Months % Change 2 2/1 /1 /1 /11 / / / / / Median Existing Existing Home Single Months' Family Supply Home Price % Change Change /1 /1 /1 /11 / / / / /1 October 1, 21
5 Condo/Co-op Sales Economics Sales (Millions of Units) - Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Monthly Average for Three Six Twelve Five Ten Sep-1 Aug-1 Jul-1 Jun-1 Month Month Month Year Year Condo/Co-op Sales (thousands) (percent change) (year-on-year percent change) Inventory (thousands) (percent change) (year-on-year percent change) Months' Supply Average Sales Price ($) (year-on-year percent change) Median Sales Price ($) (year-on-year percent change) Source: National Association of Realtors via Bloomberg. Our calculations. Condo/Co-op Unsold Inventory Inventories (Thousands) October 1, 21 - Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 October 1, 21
6 Economics Condo/Co-op Sales, Inventories, and Prices Condo/Co-op Sales Monthly Sales -Month Average Median Condo/Co-op Existing Months' Home Price Supply -Month Average % Change 1 2 % Change Change /1 /1 /1 /11 / / / / / Existing Condo/Co-op Home Months' Prices Supply /1 /1 /1 /11 / / / / /1 October 1, 21
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