Houston Economic Outlook. Patrick Jankowski

Transcription

1 Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski

2 Houston s Economic Drivers U.S. Economic Growth Global Trade Outlook for Energy

3 U.S. Economic Growth 3

4 Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Growth Rate - % Q1/12 Q2/12 Q3/12 Q4/12 Q1/13 Q2/13 Q3/13 Q4/13 Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 U.S. Employment 400 Seasonally Adjusted Monthly Growth 000s Jan '12 Jul '13 Jan '13 Jul '13 Jan '14 Jul '14 Jan '15 Jul '15 Jan '16 Jul '16 Jan '17 Jul '17 Jan '18 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 5

6 U.S. Real GDP Growth in 18 Whose Forecast (% Change) The Economist 2.2 The Conference Board 2.4 Wells Fargo Economics 2.4 National Association for Business Economics 2.4 Oxford Economics 2.4 International Monetary Fund 2.5 6

7 Global Trade 7

8 Global Trade Houston metro ranks second in U.S. exports ($84.1 billion in 16) 5,700 firms engaged in global trade Supports 350,000 to 450,000 area jobs 8

9 Houston s Foreign Trade 06 '16 Exports 35.8% Imports 64.2% Exports 57.1% Imports 42.9% 9

10 10

11 Outlook for Energy 11

12 $ Per Barrel NYMEX WTI Average Weekly Spot Price Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun '17 Sep '17 Dec '17 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 12

13 $ Per Barrel NYMEX WTI Average Weekly Spot Price Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 13

14 Lost Money First Quarter 2017 Results Earned a Profit 14

15 Lost Money Third Quarter 2017 Results Earned a Profit 15

16 U.S. Economic Growth Exports Energy Outlook 16

17 How has Houston fared? 17

18 Jobs, 000s Regional Employment, Net Change Month Running Totals '14 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '15 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '16 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '17 Mar May Jul Sep Nov '18-20 Source: Texas Workforce Commission

19 Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 19

20 Home Sales (000) Houston-Area Home Sales Month Total '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Houston Association of Realtors 20

21 Houston Employment Change, Aug 17 YTD Gainers Losers Restaurants & Bars +8,400 Retail Trade* -14,300 Health Care +7,100 Construction -5,400 Employment Services +9,500 Wholesale -4,100 Fabricated Metals +5,200 Machinery Mfg -2,400 Oil Field Services +3,700 Information -1,400 Source: Texas Workforce Commission * Highly seasonal 21

22 Then Hurricane Harvey Hit 22

23 Pinwheel vs. Waterwheel

24 Harvey Rainfall Summary - Inches Cedar Bayou 51.9 Beaumont/Port Arthur 47.4 Pasadena 45.7 Friendswood 44.1 First Colony 36.3 Baytown 35.6 Bush Intercontinental 31.3 Galveston 22.8 Victoria 15.6 Corpus Christi 6.2 Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 24

25 Wind event vs. Water event Hurricane Ike Hurricane Harvey 25

26 Damage Report Homes 162,000 Apartments 16,000 Office Buildings 70 Vehicles 300,000

27 Damage Report Homes 7.0% Apartments 2.4% Office Buildings Less than 1.0% NRA Vehicles 9.6%

28 Pause, not rewind. 28

29 Purchasing Managers Index 70 Above 50 = Expansion, Below 50 = Contraction '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Source: Institute for Supply Management- Houston 29

30 Changes in Home sales CATEGORIES Aug 17 v Aug 16 Sep 17 v Sep 16 Total Sales units -24.2% +3.4% Total Volume - $ -22.2% +10.2% SF Sales -25.4% +4.2% Source: Houston Association of Realtors

31 Not as bad as originally thought Hurricane Damages Date Losses - Billions 1st Estimate Sep 5 $ nd Revision Sep 14 $97.0 3rd Revision Oct 2 $87.0 4th Revision Oct 27 $73.5 Source: Moody s Analytics 31

32 Hurricane Harvey Impact 99.9% firms now open for business Impact on energy prices fading Minimal impact on population growth No significant impact on business infrastructure Impact on real estate development TBD

33 So where is Houston Real Estate? 33

34 % Space Vacant Office Space Absorption - MMSF 16 Absorption Direct Vacancy (1.0) 4 Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Q1/18 Source: Transwestern (2.0) 34

35 Office Space (MM SF) Office Space Jobs v. Absorption Jobs (000s) 8 Jobs Created Office Absorption '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 ' Source: Texas Workforce Commission & Greater Houston Partnership 35

36 Retail Space 10.0% % Vacant 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Q1/18 Source: Transwestern 36

37 $ Billions Metro Houston Retail Sales Qtr Moving Total, Real 17 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

38 % Space Vacant Industrial Space Absorption MM SF Absorption Direct Vacancy Q1/07 Q1/08 Q1/09 Q1/10 Q1/11 Q1/12 Q1/13 Q1/14 Q1/15 Q1/16 Q1/17 Q1/18 Source: Transwestern 38

39 39

40 Multi-Family Opened this year 15,261 units Under construction 9,630 Proposed 17,130 40

41 Multi-Family Opened this year 15,261 units Under construction 9,630 Proposed 17,130 Occupancy rate Nov % Nov % 41

42 Real Estate Summary Office Approaching bottom Industrial Retail Healthiest of all sectors Location, location, property type Multi-family Marginal improvement 42

43 My favorite slides 43

44 WTI ($/bbl) Oil Prices & Houston Employment Jobs, Millions 140 Monthly Oil Prices Employment '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 ' Source: Texas Workforce Commission, U.S. Energy Information Administration 44

45 Jobs, 000,000 Dean Frances Houston Employment vs. Tropical Storms Allison Fay Bill Rita Ike Isaac Harvey '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 Source: Texas Workforce Commission & Greater Houston Partnership 45

46 46

47 47

48 Houston Economic Outlook Patrick Jankowski