Today s Vision Tomorrow s Reality. Brian Beaulieu CEO
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1 Canadian Institute of Plumbing and Heating Today s Vision Tomorrow s Reality Brian Beaulieu CEO
2 215 Forecast Results 2 Duration 215 Forecast Result Accuracy US GDP 18 $ Trillion $ Trillion 98.9% US Ind. Prod (12MMA) % Eur Ind. Prod (12MMA) % Canada Ind Prod (12MMA) C$ % China Ind Prod (12MMA) % US Housing Mils. Units Mils. Units 98.1% US Retail Sales 13 $2.248 Trils deflated $2.244 Trils deflated 99.8% US Employment Million Million 99.3% ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to reduce risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions. 2
3 Canada GDP to US GDP Canada 1.8 US Canada US '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 3MMA Trillions of Constant $ 3 Data Source: BBA, Statistics Canada 1
4 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Raw % % % % 14.6% 16.7% 13.3% 12.8% 1.4% 1.4% Data Preparation % % % % % % % 12.7% 4
5 US GDP to Canada GDP Canada 8 US % 13% 1.3% Canada -4 US -6 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 5 Rates-of-Change Data Source: BBA, Statistics Canada
6 Canada Industrial Production ROC 1 MMA 41 3%.3% -1.2% 38 3MMA -1 12MMA : -1.2% 217: 3.7% -3 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 ITR Economics 216 Trends Summit Billions of chained 27 Canadian Dollars
7 Index (C$) 15 Canada Industrial Production Index to ITR Leading Indicator Indicator Index (C$) Indicator Indicator Analysis: aaa -15 bbb '98 '99 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 ccc '16 '17 '18 '19 '2 ddd Rates-of-Change 7, ITR Economics -8-12
8 Production 8 Canada Industrial Production Index to Canada Purchasing Managers Index Index % -2.1% Production - Index - '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 ' Rates-of-Change 8 Data Source: Markit Economics, Statistics Canada
9 / Canadian Leading Indicator % 4% -.7% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Rates-of-Change 9
10 Canada Employment '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 ' Month Moving Average
11 Canada Total Retail Sales R-O-C 1 6.1% 3% 3.% '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 11
12 Canada Durable Goods New Orders ROC MMA % 7-3.6% ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 2 12
13 R-O-C Toronto Stock Exchange 3 Composite Index MMA 32, 28,5 25, -2-8.% -9.3% 21,5 18, MMA 12MMA ,5 11, Down 1.7% on Friday to '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 7,5 4, C$, 1975 = 1 Data Source: WSJ
14 S&P 5 to S&P Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) S&P 5 25 S&P TSX 18, 16, , 12, 1, 8, 6, 5 S&P 5 S&P TSX '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 4, 2, Data Trends 14 Data Source: Wall Street Journal
15 Canada Indicators Industry Status Direction Notes Consumer Prices 1.4% roc Mild Rise Five Year Average = 1.7% Leading Indicators PMI and OECD Mild Rise Stronger economy in 217 Retail Sales Positive Rising rocs Ascent Accelerating rise Unemployment 6.9% rate Decline was 7.3% in Feb Unemployment -.8% r of people p Decline Down from one year ago ITR Economics 216 Trends Summit 15
16 World Industrial Production 216: 1.6% 217: 3.2% BREXIT ITR Economics 216 Trends Summit = 1 Data Source: CEIC
17 Rig Count Oil Price & Rig Count Alberta Rig Count down 53.1% ( Ph A) USD/bbl $12 $ $8 $6 5 $47.91 $4 25 Oil Rigs WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks 33 Jan 214 Apr 214 Jul 214 Oct 214 Jan 215 Apr 215 Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216 Oct 216 $2 $ 17
18 Million Barrels US Crude Oil Inventories since January 214 5% 5 US Commercial Crude Oil Inventories zero 4% 3% 4 3 Inventories down in Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and flat to down in Canada 2% 1% % 2 Jan 214 Apr 214 Jul 214 Oct 214 Jan 215 Apr 215 Jul 215 Oct 215 Jan 216 Apr 216 Jul 216-1% 18
19 Canada Exchange Rate to US Crude Oil Futures Exchange Rate -3 Crude Oil Sales Exchange Rate Crude Prices Oil -6 3 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '2-9 ITR Economics 216 Trends Summit 19 Rates-of-Change Data Source: WSJ
20 Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate R-O-C 3. MMA / % 5.1% Raw 12MMA Friday -6.2% a year from now '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 ITR Economics 216 Trends Summit Canadian Dollar per US Dollar Data Source: WSJ
21 R-O-C 1 Canada Total Residential Building Permits 1. Employment rising/unemployment declining 2. Interest rates are down from a year ago and likely to stay down 3. Commodity price rise in % -3.2% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 21
22 Housing Starts R-O-C 4 Mar % 6.3% May Dec 9 As seen in '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 Millions of Units 22 Data Source: Census Bureau
23 Ontario Total Retail Sales R-O-C % 5.6% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 23 5
24 R-O-C 15 Ontario Residential Building Permits % 8.8% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 24
25 Quebec Total Retail Sales R-O-C % 19 2.% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 25 4
26 R-O-C 1 Quebec Residential Building Permits % -2.3% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 26
27 Alberta Total Retail Sales R-O-C % -3.7% 37% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 27
28 Alberta Residential Building Permits R-O-C % -35.7% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 28
29 British Columbia Total Retail Sales R-O-C % % '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 29
30 British Columbia Residential Building Permits R-O-C % 6.6% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 3
31 Manitoba Total Retail Sales R-O-C % 3.7% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 31
32 R-O-C 1 Manitoba Residential Building Permits % -12.2% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 32
33 Saskatchewan Total Retail Sales R-O-C % -1.8% 18% '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 33
34 R-O-C 1 5 Saskatchewan Residential Building Permits % -35.9% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 34
35 Nova Scotia Total Retail Sales R-O-C % 31% 3.1% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 35 6
36 Nova Scotia Residential Building Permits R-O-C % -24.3% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 36
37 New Brunswick Total Retail Sales R-O-C 2 8.8% 5.1% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 37 4
38 New Brunswick Residential Building Permits R-O-C % 2 5.% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 38
39 R-O-C 15 Newfoundland and Labrador Total Retail Sales % 1.3% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 39 3
40 Newfoundland and Labrador Residential Building Permits R-O-C % -4.9% '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 4.1
41 Prince Edward Island Total Retail Sales R-O-C % % '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 41
42 Prince Edward Island Residential Building Permits R-O-C % % '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 42
43 Canada Nonresidential Construction Permits R-O-C 6 MMA % -6.% MMA 12MMA '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 '16 '18 '2 43 Billions of Dollars
44 Canada Commercial Construction Province Phase $12 Direction British Columbia 1.8% B 3.3 b Up Ontario -7.4% D 8.7 b Down Alberta -3.6% D 6.5 b Down Quebec -8.7% D 3.7 b Down Saskatchewan 14% 1.4% C 1b 1. Flat Newfoundland/Labrador -4.7% D 281. m Down Manitoba -9.9% D m Down Nova Scotia 24.3% B 42.4 m Up Prince Edward Island -22.8% D 44.9 m Down New Brunswick -4.1% D m Down 44 Chained 27$CAD
45 Join our list! Join our list! Receive monthly updates on the economy with the subject line CIPH 45
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