High Definition TV Technology Standards FIGURE 1 DIGITAL TV SYSTEMS Products HDTV Program Production and Transmission

Transcription

1 INTRODUCTION... XVII RADIO FREQUENCY TECHNOLOGIES AND APPLICATIONS... XVII STUDY BACKGROUND... XVII STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES... XVIII INTENDED AUDIENCE... XIX SCOPE AND FORMAT... XIX METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES... XX ANALYST CREDENTIALS... XX RELATED BCC RESEARCH... XX BCC ONLINE SERVICES... XXII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... XXIII SUMMARY TABLE TOTAL U.S. MARKET FOR EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE, THROUGH 2008 ($ BILLIONS)... XXIII SUMMARY FIGURE TOTAL U.S. MARKET FOR EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE, ($ BILLIONS)... XXIV OVERVIEW OF RF MARKET... 1 GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF RF... 1 PROPERTIES OF RF... 1 Frequency and Wavelength... 1 Dispersion and Directivity... 2 Wave Propagation... 2 RF Bands... 2 TABLE 1 RF BANDS... 3 Very Low Frequency (VLF) Band... 3 Low Frequency (LF) Band... 3 Medium Frequency (MF) and High Frequency (HF) Bands... 3 Very High Frequency (VHF) Band... 4 Ultra-High Frequency (UHF) Band... 4 Super-High Frequency (SHF) Band... 4 Extremely High Frequency (EHF) Band... 5 RF TECHNOLOGIES... 5 Established Technologies... 5 TABLE 2 ESTABLISHED RF TECHNOLOGIES AND APPLICATIONS... 6 Emerging Technologies... 6 Digital Radio... 7 Technology... 7 Satellite DR... 7 Terrestrial DR... 7 Products... 8 Broadcast Equipment (Satellite)... 8 Broadcast Equipment (Terrestrial)... 9 Receivers and Antennas... 9

2 High Definition TV Technology Standards FIGURE 1 DIGITAL TV SYSTEMS Products HDTV Program Production and Transmission Equipment HDTV Program Production and Transmission Equipment (Continued) HDTV Set-Top Boxes HDTV Displays HDTV Displays (Continued) HDTV Displays (Continued) Advanced Cellular Technologies G and 2G Wireless TABLE 3 COMPARISON OF MAJOR CELLULAR TECHNOLOGIES USED IN THE UNITED STATES G and 2.75G Wireless FIGURE 2 MIGRATION PATHS FROM 2G TO 3G WIRELESS CDMA TDMA G Wireless Wireless Networking TABLE 4 WIRELESS NETWORKING TECHNOLOGIES Personal Area Networks Wireless Area Networks Spread Spectrum Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) Technology Induction Transponders Electronic Field Disturbance Transponders Radio Transponders RFID Industry Standards RFID ICs Products RFID Transponders TABLE 5 COMMON U.S. TRANSPONDER FREQUENCIES Memory Physical Form Summary Tags TABLE 6 SUMMARY OF RF TAG FEATURES Readers Global Positioning System (GPS)... 32

3 GPS Receiver Features TABLE 7 COMMON TYPES OF GPS RECEIVERS RF Plasma Sources and Applications General Principles FIGURE 3 TYPICAL (CAPACITIVE) RF PLASMA SYSTEM Types of RF Plasma Capacitive RF RF Induction Microwave RF Patent Analysis RF Technology Area FIGURE 4 U.S. PATENTS ON EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY TECHNOLOGY AREA, Pace of Innovation FIGURE 5 NEW U.S. PATENTS ISSUED FOR EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES, (NUMBER OF PATENTS) FIGURE 5 (CONTINUED) Patent Characteristics Basic vs. Fabrication and Application Technology FIGURE 6 SAMPLING OF RECENT RF PATENTS BY TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY (NUMBER OF PATENTS) Digital Radio HDTV Advanced Cellular and Wireless Networks RFID FIGURE 7 NEW PATENTS FOR RFID APPLICATIONS BY SECTOR FIGURE 7 (CONTINUED) GPS RF Plasma Patent Assignees Type of Assignee FIGURE 8 SAMPLING OF RECENT RF PATENTS BY TYPE OF ASSIGNEE (NUMBER OF PATENTS) Nationality of Assignee FIGURE 9 SAMPLING OF RECENT RF PATENTS BY ASSIGNEE S NATIONALITY (NUMBER OF PATENTS) MAJOR RF APPLICATIONS RADIO AND TV BROADCASTING Datacasting Interactive and On-demand Programming TELECOMMUNICATIONS Enterprise Applications Consumer Applications DATA NETWORKS TABLE 8 RF DATA NETWORKING APPLICATIONS... 52

4 Hands-Free Telecommunications Human Interface Devices and Desktop Peripherals Local Area Networks Hotspots Enterprise Networks Home Networks WLAN Phones Industrial Automation and Process Control Wide Area Networks SECURITY/IDENTIFICATION TABLE 9 RF SECURITY/IDENTIFICATION APPLICATIONS Personnel Access Control/Monitoring Vehicle Entry and Control Retail Anti-Theft Asset Tagging Hospital Patient/Staff/Equipment Management Ticketing Livestock/Animal Identification Cargo Container Security Automatic Vehicle Identification Parking and Gated Community Access Fleet Tracking/Vehicle Location Rail Car Identification and Tracking Mining Anti-Collision Systems Weighing Trucks Traffic Management Other Identification/Security Applications E-PAYMENTS RFID Payment Applications Cellular Payment Applications Wireless Networking Payment Applications MATERIALS HANDLING/LOGISTICS TABLE 10 RF MATERIALS HANDLING/LOGISTICS APPLICATIONS Production Tracking Silicon Fabs Motor Vehicles Other Manufacturing Applications Automated Airline Baggage Systems Warehouse Automation Item Identification and Tracking RF Picking Shipment Tracking SURFACE TREATMENT Plasma Cleaning Etching... 71

5 Electronics Medical Products Other Industries Surface Activation Coating MILITARY APPLICATIONS TABLE 11 MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES High Definition Military Imagery Military Logistics Tracking and Security Smart Munitions Telemetry Equipment Casualty Tracking Systems Advanced Sensors Tactical Communications Enhanced Global Positioning System Tactical Command and Control Systems RESEARCH Fusion Research Advanced Rocket Propulsion Systems RF END-USER SEGMENTS AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING HEALTH CARE TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS COMMUNICATIONS RETAIL/ PERSONAL SERVICES GOVERNMENT/MILITARY CONSUMERS U.S. MARKET FOR EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES OVERALL U.S. MARKET TABLE 12 TOTAL U.S. MARKET FOR EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE, THROUGH 2008 ($ BILLIONS) DETAILED MARKET ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, TECHNOLOGY MARKETS Digital Radio FIGURE 10 U.S. DIGITAL RADIO SALES, ($ MILLIONS) FIGURE 10 (CONTINUED) Historical Sales TABLE 13 INVESTMENTS IN SATELLITE RADIO BROADCAST AND TRANSMISSION FACILITIES, ($ MILLIONS) Market Drivers Digital Conversion Growing Consumer Interest in Digital Radio Future Sales TABLE 14 PROJECTED DIGITAL RADIO EQUIPMENT SALES, THROUGH

6 HDTV FIGURE 11 U.S. HDTV SALES, ($ BILLIONS) FIGURE 11 (CONTINUED) Historical Sales FIGURE 12 PERCENT OF U.S. SALES OF DIGITAL TVs WITH INTEGRATED DIGITAL TUNER, Market Drivers Growing Consumer Interest in HDTV FIGURE 13 U.S. UNIT SALES OF HDTV DISPLAYS, (MILLIONS) Declining Prices FIGURE 14 AVERAGE HDTV SELLING PRICE TRENDS, ($) Changing Market for Set-Top Boxes Broadcaster Conversion to Digital Broadcasting Projected Market TABLE 15 PROJECTED U.S. HDTV DISPLAY MARKET, THROUGH TABLE 16 PROJECTED U.S. SALES OF SET-TOP BOXES, THROUGH TABLE 17 PROJECTED U.S. MARKET FOR HDTV BROADCASTING EQUIPMENT, THROUGH Advanced (2.5G/3G) Cellular Technologies FIGURE 15 U.S. MARKET FOR 2.5G/3G MOBILE INFRASTRUCTURE AND HANDSETS, ($ MILLIONS) Historical Sales FIGURE 16 U.S. 2.5G/3G CELLULAR MARKET SUBSEGMENTS, 2002 (%) Market Drivers Number of 2.5G/3.G Cellular Subscribers FIGURE 17 PROJECTED GROWTH IN U.S. 2.5G/3G CELLULAR SUBSCRIBER BASE, (MILLIONS) Replacement Handset Sales Average Handset Costs Projected Demand FIGURE 18 U.S. 2.5G/3G CELLULAR MARKET SUB-SEGMENTS, 2008 (%) TABLE G/3G PROJECTED SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS) Wireless Networking FIGURE 19 U.S. WIRELESS NETWORKING DEVICE AND EQUIPMENT SALES, ($ MILLIONS) Historical Sales FIGURE 20 U.S. WIRELESS NETWORKING DEVICES MARKET SUB-SEGMENTS, 2002 (%) Market Drivers Personal Area Networking Hands-Free Headsets for Mobile Telephones FIGURE 21 U.S. SALES OF BLUETOOTH MOBILE PHONE HANDSETS, (THOUSAND UNITS) Computers Computer Accessories and Peripherals TABLE 19 SALES OF BLUETOOTH COMPUTER ACCESSORIES AND PERIPHERALS, THROUGH 2008 (THOUSAND UNITS)

7 Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) FIGURE 22 U.S. PERSONAL DIGITAL ASSISTANT SALES, (THOUSAND UNITS) FIGURE 23 BLUETOOTH PDAS VERSUS ALL PDAS SOLD IN THE U.S., THROUGH 2008 (THOUSAND UNITS) Automobiles Wireless Local Area Networking FIGURE 24 U.S. WLAN EQUIPMENT SALES MARKET SHARES, 2002 (%) SOHO Market FIGURE 25 NUMBER OF U.S. HOUSEHOLDS WITH BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS, (MILLIONS) Enterprise Market Public WLANs (Hotspots) FIGURE 26 NUMBER OF U.S. PUBLIC WLAN HOTSPOTS, Wireless Wide Area Networking Projected Sales FIGURE 27 U.S. WIRELESS NETWORKING DEVICES MARKET SUBSEGMENTS, 2008 (%) Personal Area Networking TABLE 20 WIRELESS PERSONAL AREA NETWORKING PROJECTED SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS) TABLE 21 PROJECTED SALES OF BLUETOOTH COMPUTER ACCESSORIES AND PERIPHERALS, (THOUSAND UNITS) Wireless Local Area Networking TABLE 22 U.S. WLAN PROJECTED SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS) Wireless Wide Area Networking Public WLANs RFID FIGURE 28 U.S. RFID SALES, ($ MILLIONS) FIGURE 29 PERCENT OF U.S. RFID SALES BY TYPE OF PRODUCT/SERVICE, Historical Sales Market Drivers Electronic Article Surveillance (EAS) Supply Chain Management Real-Time Location Systems Baggage Handling Point of Sale Payment Systems FIGURE 30 TREND IN NUMBER OF SPEEDPASSES, (MILLIONS OF TAGHOLDERS) Projected Sales TABLE 23 RFID PROJECTED SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS) Traditional Markets RF-EAS Supply Chain Management RTLS Airline Baggage Tracking Point of Sale Global Positioning Systems

8 FIGURE 31 U.S. GPS SALES, ($ BILLIONS) Historical Sales Market Drivers FIGURE 32 U.S. GPS MARKET SUBSEGMENT MARKET SHARES, 2002 (%) FIGURE 32 (CONTINUED) Vehicle Location and Tracking Systems Vehicle Onboard Navigation Systems Telematics Systems Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) Systems TABLE 24 NUMBER OF AVL-EQUIPPED VEHICLES IN U.S. FLEETS, THROUGH Consumer GPS Consumer GPS (Continued) Aviation FIGURE 33 U.S. GENERAL AVIATION PILOTS WITH INSTRUMENT RATINGS, (THOUSANDS) FIGURE 33 (CONTINUED) Machine Control Other Applications Projected Sales TABLE 25 GPS PROJECTED SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS) FIGURE 34 U.S. GPS MARKET SUBSEGMENT MARKET SHARES, 2008 (%) Vehicle Navigation Systems Consumer GPS Products TABLE 26 PROJECTED CONSUMER GPS SYSTEM SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ MILLIONS) Machine Controls Aviation Other GPS Applications Plasma Surface Modification Equipment FIGURE 35 U.S. PLASMA SURFACE MODIFICATION EQUIPMENT SALES, ($ BILLIONS) Historical Sales Market Drivers FIGURE 36 TRENDS IN U.S SEMICONDUCTOR SHIPMENTS, ($ BILLIONS) Projected Sales TABLE 27 PLASMA EQUIPMENT MARKET DRIVERS AND PROJECTED SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ BILLIONS) RF Components FIGURE 37 U.S. MARKET FOR RFICs, ($ BILLIONS) FREQUENCY BANDS FIGURE 38 RF TECHNOLOGIES MARKET SHARES BY FREQUENCY BAND, 2003 (%) TABLE 28 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGY SALES TRENDS BY FREQUENCY BAND, THROUGH 2008 ($ BILLIONS) FIGURE 39 RF TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARES BY FREQUENCY BAND, 2008 (%)

9 APPLICATIONS FIGURE 40 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES MARKET SHARES BY GENERAL APPLICATION, 2003 (%) TABLE 29 EMERGING RF APPLICATIONS SALES, THROUGH 2008 ($ BILLIONS) FIGURE 41 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES MARKET SHARE BY GENERAL APPLICATION, 2008 (%) END-USERS FIGURE 42 RF TECHNOLOGY MARKET SHARES BY TYPE OF END-USER, 2003 (%) FIGURE 42 (CONTINUED) TABLE 30 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGY END-USERS, THROUGH 2008 ($ BILLIONS) FIGURE 43 EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES BY TYPE OF END-USER, 2008 (%) COMPETITION DIGITAL RADIO RECEIVERS FIGURE 44 OEM AUTOMOTIVE AUDIO (RECEIVER/ANTENNA) MARKET SHARES, 2002 (%) DELPHI CORP VISTEON CORP OTHER MANUFACTURERS HIGH DEFINITION TELEVISION FIGURE 45 U.S. TV RECEIVER MARKET LEADERS, 2002 (%) ADVANCED (2.5G/3G) CELLULAR FIGURE 46 W-CDMA INFRASTRUCTURE MARKET SHARES, 2002 (%) FIGURE 47 3G HANDSET MARKET SHARES, 2002 (%) WIRELESS NETWORKING PERSONAL AREA NETWORKS WIRELESS LOCAL AREA NETWORKS Small Office/Home Office (SOHO) Sub-Segment FIGURE 48 SMALL OFFICE/HOME OFFICE WLAN MARKET SHARES, 2002 (PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES BY VALUE) FIGURE 48 (CONTINUED) Linksys Netgear D-Link Buffalo Technology Enterprise Sub-Segment FIGURE 49 ENTERPRISE WLAN MARKET SHARES, 2002 (PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES BY VALUE) FIGURE 49 (CONTINUED) Proxim Corp Symbol Technologies, Inc RFID FIGURE 50 RFID MARKET SHARES, 2002 (%) TEXAS INSTRUMENTS TYCO INTERNATIONAL CHECKPOINT SYSTEMS ALIEN TECHNOLOGIES

10 MATRICS SAVI TECHNOLOGY GPS FIGURE 51 GPS MARKET SHARES, 2002 (PERCENT OF TOTAL SALES BY VALUE) GARMIN TRIMBLE NAVIGATION ROCKWELL COLLINS THALES NAVIGATION OTHER COMPANIES RF PLASMA APPLICATIONS LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. MARKET DEVELOPMENTS THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE LONG-TERM MARKET FOR EMERGING RF TECHNOLOGIES ECONOMIC TRENDS HEALTH/ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES LEGAL/COPYRIGHT ISSUES The Debate PRIVACY ISSUES Effects SECURITY ISSUES TECHNOLOGY TRENDS BANDWIDTH COMPETITION