The Indonesian German Contribution to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System

Transcription

1 Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 The Indonesian German Contribution to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System Jan Sopaheluwakan Indonesian Institute of Sciences Joern Lauterjung GeoForschungsZentrum,, Germany Third International Conference on Early Warning Bonn, March 2006

2 March, 2005 EWC III,

3 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

4 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

5 Subduction slab geometry beneath Sumatra and Java 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

6 2005 Tsunami prone coasts in Indonesia and destructive earthquake and tsunami during the last decade Distance to the closest shore: km Tsunami lead time: 5 40 minutes Seismic wave propagation: 3 30 seconds Early warning system in 5 minutes?! 1994 Tsunami prone coasts 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

7 Rupture propagation of Dec. 26, 2004 Ishii et al., 2005 Nature 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

8 The 2004 Aceh Tsunami and vertical displacement of seafloor Tsunami animation (Tsunami Research Group Marine Research Center, Bandung Institute of Technol.) 28 March, 2005 EWC III, Hirata 2006 et al. [2005] from 8 satellite altimetry data.

9 The 12/26/2004 co-seismic slip distribution shows a very sharp edge under Simeulue. Aftershocks abutting the high-slip gradient under northern Simeulue. The high slip region is 12-20km deep. At about 6 N as the slip vectors there shows a 15 degrees change in the convergence direction (grey arrow). It shows that the change in direction at 6 N, which also shows us in the GPS coseismic slip. The elastic strain released was partitioned prior to the rupture, and the mainshocks slip vector probably rotated as slip progressed northward. The 3/28/2005 quake approach to rupture 30-40km depths. It s supposed could overlap the 12/26/2004 region along strike. (Subarya et. al, Nature, 2006) 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

10 Survey mode GPS coseismic displacements December 26 earthquake and March 28, 2005 earthquake 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

11 Geotech Jan Sopaheluwakan, D. Ranau 2006 Liwa Sesar Sumatra Episenter gempa 2a Hiposenter gempa 2b A Kep. Mentawai Sesar Sumatra B Kerak Kontinen 1b 100 km Litosfera Samudera B A 200 km Astenosfera 1a Gempa dangkal berasosiasi dengan Sesar Sumatra Gempa dalam berasosiasi dengan zona subduksi

12 Coral reefs growth and the earthquake induced sea bottom movement 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

13 2005 Earthquake epicenters of Sumatra (Natawidjaja( Natawidjaja,, 2002) ,2 cm/year 1883 Bathymetry around Sumatera Cyclic recurrent of Mentawai earthquakes around 200 years 6 cm/year Earthquake +Tsunami:1381 (coral reef), 1608 (coral reef) 1833 (coral reef &book), 2004 Interval years (Natawidjaja( Natawidjaja,, 2000, LIPI Caltech) 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

14 Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 The INA TWS

15 Satellite in Indian Ocean Satellite in Pacific system HAA GTS or ACeS Regional/National Center GPS Coastal station Coastal station Seismograph Buoy Tide gage Bottom pressure gauge OBS Indian Ocean Plate 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

16 2005 Satellite in Indian Ocean High altitude airship Satellite in ASEAN Satellite in Pacific system National/Regional Center Coastal station Seismograph Buoy Tide gage BPG Indian Ocean Plate South OBS North 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

17 END TO END CONCEPT OF EITWS Seismograph accelerograph Banda Aceh Epicenter Padang OBSERVATION BMG HQ Jakarta Tide Gauge Buoy/OBU GPS LAND STATION Denpasar 2 PROCESSING AND DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS 1 Earthquake Information -Time - Location - Magnitude Decision support JAKARTA BMG SERVER BMG SMS SERVER 2303 AEIC SERVER LOCAL AUTHORITIES PUBLIC Dept. for Com And Info MASS MEDIA BAKORNAS PBP Local Gov WARNING!! AEIC Evacuate Tsunami SMS SERVER Watch 28 March, 2005 EWC III, Warning 2006 Advisory 17 Earth Observation Cancellation

18 Main Activities Seismology 4 Broadbandstations installed Provisional Earthquake-Monitoring System at BMG active Ocean-Instrumentation 2 Buoy-Systems installed First Site Survey for Tide Gauges completed Deep-water bathymetry partly completed GPS First site survey completed GNSS reflectometry study started 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

19 Main Activities Early Warning Centre Conceptual Phase for design and architecture started First workshop on conceptual and architectural design in Jakarta Modelling Source modelling group started Deep Water modelling group started Shallow water and run-up modelling group ready to go Capacity Building Fact Finding Mission Conceptual discussion completed Announcements for PhD program published Capacity Building Unit in Indonesia in preparation 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

20 International activities Indonesian-German System well established in the UNESCO IOC and IOC-ICG framework. Contacts in the field of seismology with Australia and South Africa established. Cooperation with Sri Lanka (Seismology, Warning Centre, Tide Gauges, Capacity Building) ready to sign. 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

21 Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 Earthquake monitoring

22 BMG Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 BROADBAND SEISMIC STATIONS NETWORK INSTALLED (OCT, 2005) RSC 1 RSC 6 RSC 10 RSC 5 NSC RSC 4 RSC 9 RSC 2 RSC 8 RSC 7 RSC 3 Japan (7) German (1) CTBTO (1) Regional Centre (10) RSC = Regional Seismic Center NSC = National Seismic Center 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

23 BMG Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 BROADBAND SEISMIC STATIONS NETWORK INSTALLED and Planned 2006 RSC 1 RSC 6 RSC 10 RSC 5 NSC RSC 4 RSC 9 RSC 2 RSC 8 RSC 7 RSC 3 Japan (10) German (4) CTBTO (1) Regional Centre (10) RSC = Regional Seismic Center NSC = National Seismic Center 28 March, BMG 2005 (14) 05 China (2) BMG (30), EWC 06 III, 2006 RISTEK (10), 06 23

24 International Seismic Network in Indonesia 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

25 Seismology Proposed Station Distribution for an Earthquake Monitoring Network for the Indian Ocean Region (Locations to be discussed) 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

26 Planned installation TEWS in BMG BB Seismic and Accelerographs stations 10 BB seismic and accelerograph, provided by Ministry of Research and Technology of Indonesia BB and Accelerographs of German, China and Japan; 10, 5 and 4 Sirene system in Aceh, Padang and Denpasar Regional centers; Medan, Padang, Ciputat, Yogya, Denpassar, Makassar, Manado, Ambon, Kupang and Jayapura Communication system for data Communication system for information; with POLRI (Police) and broadcasting agencies 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

27 Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 Sea level monitoring

28 Simeulue Nias Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 The First Tsunameters in Indian Ocean 0 o 27'S, 96 o 52 E GITWS # m Siberut Padang Sumatra 23 November 2005 Pagai Bengkulu Sonne 3 o 43'41"S, 99 o 13'52 E GITWS #2 Baruna Jaya I 3 o 43'55 S, 99 o 13'50 E m 20 November March, 2005 EWC III,

29 Existing Tide Gauges 60 Existing operational stations 25 digital on line via cable telephone 35 analog graphical chart 5 real time stations (April 2005 to date) Upgrade from analog to digital Analog Radar Pressure Bali Sibolga Padang Banten float gauge 28 March, 2005 EWC III, 2006 float gauge 29

30 Real Time Stations Completed Before 20 December 2005 analog digital NOAA/UHSLC Private Funding 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

31 Proposed Real-time Stations to be completed in 2007 analog digital NOAA/UHSLC National Funding German Funding Private Funding 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

32 Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 GPS Technology

33 GPS-IGS Global GPS at Tide Gauge GPS at Benchmark Sea-level Change Monitoring 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

34 SuGAr (Sumatra GPS Array LIPI Caltech) Jan Sopaheluwakan, March, 2005 EWC III,

35 Crustal Deformation Monitoring Plan to install Continuous GPS ( 27 GPS near tide gauges and 10 GPS near Buoys) 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

36 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

37 Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 Georeference Data, Tsunami and Risk Modelling

38 2005 EXISTING NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL (using Tsunami model, DCRC, Tohoku Univ., Japan) Aceh 2004 N Sumatera 1935 Toli-toli 1996 Banggai 2000 Biak 1996 W Sumatera 1833 Krakatau 1883 East Java 1994 Flores March, 2005 EWC III,

39 2005 Animation windows and photos of the 1994 East Java tsunami 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

40 2005 Indonesian tsunami database and information system interface software Tools Control Digital map Layer Control Legendda Batimetri Control panel for document, figures etc. Database Search function Navigator Basis Data 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

41 Potentially inundated areas in Padang (with elevation) Padang 3 Dimensional map of Padang and its surroundings 7 km Padang 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

42 Pariaman -43 min Painan - 43 min Padang City - 37 min Teluk Bayur - 43 min 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

43 The 1797 West Sumatra Tsunami Model Deformation Model (Danny, 2002) dx=dy = 1100 m nx=ny = 550 Tsunami source base on Danny s deformation model 28 March, 2005 EWC III, Magnitude =8.4

44 signal data command geofon change mode (normal or tsunami) International Partners of EWC EWMC Seismogram Display Seismic System Geofon EO Images (incl.meteo) Display location, strength propagation Government Jan Institutions Sopaheluwakan, Regional 2006 Centers of of Indonesia EITWC Information and data sensor data request information demand DSS Warning Dossier Display Warning Dossier Generation crisis products Spatio-Temp. Information Display Earthquake information Map Display User Interface / Visualisation field information Field Sirens, public, NGO Sea Level Display location, fault up-depth, fault width average displacement, displacement asymmetry factor sensor data request GPS Display GPS Land Based System signal data command land station change mode (normal or tsunami) catalogue queries data request EO System EO image products Decision Process Control Geospatial Analysis Map Production sea level (ocean) sensor data request Buoys/OBU System height wave length command buoy change mode (normal or tsunami) EO images (satellite) information demand Model Results Ingestion Sensor Proc.Data update Geospatial Data Ingestion Crisis Products sea level (coast line) sensor data request Tide Gauge System sea level command gauge change mode (normal or tsunami) Sensor System Management Archiving System Monitoring & Control model geospatial results data Model Simulation Research and production 28 March, 2005 EWC III, 2006 Geospatial Repository 44

45 Earthquake Occurence Seis.. and Accelerograph : Record Alarm Triggered Automatic Processing Process Information : Epicenter Magnitude Depth ;Origin Time Interactive Analysis DATA BASE Historical Simulation AUTOMATIC PROCESSING/ INTERACTIVE PROCESSING Real Time Date For Updating Tsunami Confirmation or Cancelation BUOYS TIDE GAUGE S MONITORING For Confirmation Jan Sopaheluwakan, 2006 Time (in Minutes) Required for Processing Warning Information DATA BASE Historical Simulation Alarm at Nat l l EITWC Automatic Processing REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING NAT L L TSUNAMI WARNING!! Processing Time Frame (Minute 1 Minute 10) Minute 1: Signal recorded at 5 Stations Minute 2: Processing Minute 3: Result Finding EQ Parameters (Origin Time; Epicenter; Depth; Magnitude) Minute 4: - Database is activated -Interactive Analysis Minute 5: Warning!! Minute 10: Warning From Nat l Center to Wider Region/ International 28 March, 2005 EWC III,

46 Conclusion The INA TWS (with significant cooperation and contribution from Germany, Japan, China, France, US) has shown its remarkable progress, ready to part of the First Phase of IOTWS Several challenges lie ahead: Integration of components Communication component needs special attention Interoperability with other national centers Working on the the last mile will be the most crucial part (linking the regional national local aspects) 28 March, 2005 EWC III,