DEAD ENDS: WHY STUDENTS STRUGGLE TO COMPLETE LONGER TERM PATHWAYS

Transcription

1 DEAD ENDS: WHY STUDENTS STRUGGLE TO COMPLETE LONGER TERM PATHWAYS PETER RILEY BAHR CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF HIGHER AND POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

2 THE CENTER Ø The Center for the Study of Higher and Postsecondary Education (CSHPE) is the #1 ranked higher education administration program in the U.S. Scholarly home of 13 School of Education faculty. We enroll 8-10 PhD and MA students each year. Ø University of Michigan s School of Education is ranked #1 in the world by the Center for World University Rankings. 2 May 11, 2017

3 THE CENTER Ø CSHPE faculty and students study ways to improve higher education. Ø We offer MAs and PhDs in Higher Education with various specializations, such as research, evaluation, and assessment public policy organizational behavior and management academic affairs and student development student access and success 3 May 11, 2017

4 POSITIONING MY RESEARCH Ø Like most scholars, my research is informed to some degree by my background. Ø But, my background is unusual among faculty at a leading research institution like the University of Michigan lending a unique perspective to my work. Ø Perspective matters because it determines The questions that you ask. How you interpret what you find. The implications that you draw from these interpretations. 4 May 11, 2017

5 MY BACKGROUND Ø Attended Solano Community College in Fairfield, California Associate Degree in Water & Wastewater Technology Associate Degree in Chemistry Ø Transferred to CSU Sacramento for a baccalaureate degree Ø Earned an MA and PhD in Sociology from UC Davis Ø Worked full-time at a wastewater treatment plant for most of my undergraduate education and first year of graduate school. To this day, I still maintain my license to operate a wastewater treatment plant in California Ø Served as a researcher in the Chancellor s Office TRIS 5 May 11, 2017

6 6 May 11, 2017 Lest there be any doubt

7 Wastewater License (Certificate) 7 May 11, 2017

8 Associate Degree in Water & Wastewater Tech 8 May 11, 2017

9 Associate Degree in Chemistry 9 May 11, 2017

10 EVOLVING RESEARCH FINDINGS Ø I love speaking to CCCAOE. Always my most engaged audience of colleagues. Emboldens me to bring my newest research. Ø There is a downside to new research, however. Title of the talk has to be determined months in advance But the findings continue to unfold and evolve. Ø Given what I have learned, I would choose a different title. 10 May 11, 2017

11 UNDERVALUED STOCK: OPPORTUNITIES FOR HIGH- RETURN INVESTMENT IN OUR STUDENTS

12 12 May 11, 2017 What is undervalued stock?

13 13 May 11, 2017 A stock that is selling for a price that is lower than its intrinsic value.

14 14 May 11, 2017 How do undervalued stocks occur?

15 HOW DO UNDERVALUED STOCKS OCCURS? Ø According to Investopedia, the stock Is not noticed, in the headlines, or a household name. Is not glamorous or thought to be the next big thing. Ø Put simply, an undervalued stock is an opportunity that arises because others have overlooked it. Ø An undervalued stock is a product of misperception a breakdown in vision or foresight. a failure to see what could be. 15 May 11, 2017

16 How does this relate to our conversation today? 16 May 11, 2017

17 Skills builders remain an undervalued stock. 17 May 11, 2017

18 SKILLS BUILDERS AS UNDERVALUED STOCK Ø California leads the nation in research and educational work on skills builders. Ø However, they remain a largely overlooked opportunity for high-return investment. 1. They are motivated, goal-directed students. 2. They have identified and capitalized on intersections between higher education and labor market opportunity. 3. They are high-performing academically, with high course success rates and high GPAs. 18 May 11, 2017

19 How do we help these successful noncompleters get across the completion finish line? 19 May 11, 2017

20 INVESTING IN SKILLS BUILDER COMPLETION 1. Build smartly on the curricular pathways in which skills builders already are found. 2. Align program learning goals with the evolving needs of industry and professional certifying bodies for fluid technical skills. 3. Communicate to students, employers, and certifying bodies the additive value of durable shelf-life skills, such as math, science, writing, and public speaking. 4. Provide educational on-ramps and off-ramps to make it easier for adult students to get in/out of college and make progress over time. 20 May 11, 2017

21 Another opportunity for CTE programs to invest in undervalued stock is found in STEM. 21 May 11, 2017

22 22 May 11, 2017 Brief Background

23 QUESTIONS 1. How can we strengthen the contribution of community colleges to the production of STEM baccalaureate degrees? The first two years of college are critical to recruitment and retention in STEM fields. Community colleges serve almost half of all undergrads in public institutions. 2. How can we better capitalize on the diverse demographic profile of community colleges to increase equity in high-skill STEM careers? 23 May 11, 2017 Nationwide, over one-third (36%) of community college students are of historically disadvantaged racial/ethnic groups.

24 24 May 11, 2017 What did my research team and I do?

25 METHOD 1. Cataloged all of the transferrable courses offered by the CCC system in six key STEM disciplines. transferrable = accepted by the CSUs or UCs for general education credit and/or major credit in a STEM field 2. Compared & contrasted the STEM transfer curriculum in each college, deriving common (system-level) models. Curricular sequences leading to baccalaureate degrees in STEM Biology, Computer Science, and Engineering proved problematic Slide 25 May 11, 2017

26 METHOD 3. Categorized each college s STEM transfer courses. Locating each course within the larger STEM curriculum. Eliminated college-by-college variation in naming and numbering. 4. Combined this information with student transcript records. All first-time students who entered Fall 2000 thru Summer 2009, totaling 2,982,166 students Student course-taking and course outcomes through Spring 2014 Slide 26 May 11, 2017

27 METHOD 5. Deconstructed student pathways into, through, and out of the key STEM fields to Identify the primary points of attrition from STEM. Slide 27 May 11, 2017

28 28 May 11, 2017 What did we find?

29 Bahr, et al. (2017). Unrealized potential: Community college pathways to STEM baccalaureate degrees. Journal of Higher Education, 88, May 11, 2017

30 MATH PATHWAYS Slide 30 May 11, 2017

31 CHEMISTRY PATHWAYS Slide 31 May 11, 2017

32 PHYSICS PATHWAYS Slide 32 May 11, 2017

33 FINDINGS 1. Community college potential in STEM is great. About one-quarter of first-time students in California enroll in at least one transfer-level STEM course in math, chemistry, or physics. 33 May 11, 2017

34 MATH PATHWAYS Slide 34 May 11, 2017

35 FINDINGS 1. Community college potential in STEM is great. About one-quarter of first-time students in California enroll in at least one transfer-level STEM course in math, chemistry, or physics. 2. Realization of that potential currently is low. Entry point is a strong predictor of advancement. Few students move beyond the lowest-level coursework. Few students complete courses in more than one STEM discipline. 35 May 11, 2017

36 MATH PATHWAYS Slide 36 May 11, 2017

37 FINDINGS 1. Community college potential in STEM is great. About one-quarter of first-time students in California enroll in at least one transfer-level STEM course in math, chemistry, or physics. 2. Realization of that potential currently is low. Entry point is a strong predictor of advancement. Few students move beyond the lowest-level coursework. Few students complete courses in more than one STEM discipline. 3. The primary loss of students in the STEM curriculum is incremental attrition. Women and underrepresented minorities suffer greater attrition at each step, contributing to a larger total loss of these students. 37 May 11, 2017

38 Of particular interest is the attrition that occurs among students in advanced math and science. 38 May 11, 2017

39 MATH PATHWAYS Slide 39 May 11, 2017

40 CHEMISTRY PATHWAYS Slide 40 May 11, 2017

41 PHYSICS PATHWAYS Slide 41 May 11, 2017

42 42 May 11, 2017 There are more noncompletion stops than these diagrams indicate.

43 NONCOMPLETION STOPS Ø 1 in 5 (21%) students who attempt Calculus 1 neither complete a credential nor transfer. Ø 1 in 5 (21%) who attempt General Chemistry 1 Ø 1 in 6 (17%) who attempt Physics for Scientists & Engineers 1 43 May 11, 2017

44 Could it be that they simply fail these courses, become discouraged, and quit? 44 May 11, 2017

45 MOST STUDENTS ARE SUCCESSFUL Ø 78% of students who attempt Calculus 1 eventually pass with a C or better 77% for General Chemistry 1 80% for Physics for Scientists & Engineers 1 45 May 11, 2017

46 46 May 11, 2017 Attrition among successful students would be especially troubling.

47 ATTRITION OF SUCCESSFUL STUDENTS Ø 1 in 6 students (16%) who pass Calculus 1 leave without a credential and without transferring 1 in 7 (15%) who pass General Chemistry 1 1 in 8 (12%) who pass Physics for S&E 1 Ø Students who pass Calculus 1 and do not transfer are 2.6 times as likely to leave without a credential as with one. 2.0 times for General Chemistry times for Physics for S&E 1 47 May 11, 2017

48 Maybe they were only marginally successful, or they struggled to pass. 48 May 11, 2017

49 SOLIDLY SUCCESSFUL Ø Students who pass Calculus 1 and leave without a credential and without transferring: Two-thirds (69%) pass Calculus 1 on the first attempt More than two in five (44%) achieve an A or B on first attempt Nearly half (46%) go on to complete Calculus 2 or 3 Ø General Chemistry 1: 78% 42% 37% Ø Physics for S&E 1: 76% 46% 47% 49 May 11, 2017

50 50 May 11, 2017 Maybe they only took a few courses.

51 SUCCESSFUL NONCOMPLETERS Passed Calculus 1 Passed General Chem 1 Passed Physics for S&E 1 Passed transferrable math 100% 88% 97% Passed transferrable chemistry 51% 100% 67% Passed transferrable physics 41% 38% 100% Passed transferrable biology 34% 44% 34% Passed transferrable computer science 21% 12% 34% Average Credits Completed May 11, 2017

52 Looking across these three courses, 18% of successful students neither complete a credential nor transfer. 52 May 11, 2017

53 53 May 11, 2017 What do we take from this?

54 TAKE AWAYS Ø Much like skills builders, we see here another group of successful noncompleting students Another overlooked, undervalued stock. Two ends of the same continuum. Ø The loss of these students is vexing. Although not enormous in number, they are enormous in potential, with strong academic capabilities. Ø For CTE, successful STEM noncompleters are a potentially high-return investment opportunity. 54 May 11, 2017

55 55 May 11, 2017 Three Ideas to Begin Investing

56 INVESTING IN SUCCESSFUL NONCOMPLETERS 1. It should not be possible for these students to get away without a credential. We should chase them down, if needed. 2. We are not harming transfer-oriented students by conveying credential & professional opportunities in CTE. Life happens, and it is good to have options when it does. 3. Silo elimination: What if the transfer math and science courses worked across the curriculum, without special paperwork, signatures, requests, etc.? Opening CTE pathways to transfer students, and transfer pathways to CTE students. 56 May 11, 2017

57 Bottomline: Let us not, through a lack of vision, fail to invest in this undervalued stock. 57 May 11, 2017

58 My collaborator Jon McNaughtan (Texas Tech U.) 58 May 11, 2017

59 UNDERVALUED STOCK: OPPORTUNITIES FOR HIGH-RETURN INVESTMENT IN OUR STUDENTS PETER RILEY BAHR CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF HIGHER AND POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN